[Fangraphs] "Angels scripted reach-out call"

[Angelsjunky]

Kevin Goldstein over at Fangraphs wrote an article with hypothetical "reach-out calls" from AL teams during trade season. Here is the Angels:

 

The Trout injury and our bad pitching have killed any chances for a playoff run, so we anticipate a very busy next two months. We could end up dealing six to eight players to help replenish the system, but we will be focused on 0-3 players or prospects who are close when engaging with potential dance partners. Thus far, most of the calls we’ve taken want to discuss our pitching. We have three mid-tier starters in Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb who could all help most contenders, although they might not be starting in a playoff series, so our asks will be reasonable. Raisel Iglesias is generating a lot of attention as a high-leverage relief piece who misses bats and throws strikes. Steve Cishek, Alex Claudio and Tony Watson are a trio of bullpen pieces we expect to simply auction off towards the end of July to the highest bidder if they don’t generate earlier interest. José Iglesias can play every day for some teams, but works as a plus utility type nearly everywhere. If you are looking for power, we’d talk Justin Upton. The last year of his contract balloons to $28 million in 2022, and we’d be willing to pick up a healthy chunk of that in the right deal. He has no-trade protection, but that’s always negotiable and he hasn’t played in the postseason since 2013, so he might be open to the discussion.

 

I think that is pretty accurate, although would disagree with the assertion that the Angels have no chance at a playoff run. There play over the last 14 games says otherwise. For one, the offense is starting to come together: Upton is hot, Stassi is scalding, Walsh has cooled a bit but is still holding steady, Ward is improving day by day, Ohtani is Ohtani, etc. Fletcher and Rendon can only get better (and there's little signs that they are, albeit slowly), and Iglesias is solid enough. Meanwhile, the pitching has been a lot better of late.

Meaning, the team is (finally) coming together. They may not make the playoffs, but it is too soon to throw in the towel. That said, I think the above outlines the likely trade candidates and implies what sort of return they might receive. For instance, Upton's play over the last couple weeks all of a sudden makes him tradable, with the caveat that they'd need to throw in cash. 

But again, I think the Angels are still in wait and see mode. If they keep playing like this and go over .500, I don't see them selling - at least not unless they fall back down in July.

 

[Jay]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

We have three mid-tier starters in Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb who could all help most contenders, although they might not be starting in a playoff series, so our asks will be reasonable.

Sad to think that none of these pitchers is good enough to start in a playoff series.

[T.G.]

I've read better fiction in bathroom stalls.

[Revad]

5 minutes ago, Jay said:

Sad to think that none of these pitchers is good enough to start in a playoff series.

A couple more good starts and Heaney may start looking like a possibility to start a playoff game for another team.  

[Vlad27Trout27]

I remember reading something last month or so, which basically said that we had the oughest scehdule of any teams to the start the year. Which is true, as we've so many good teams, while hardly facing an sub 500 teams. Just this last moneht (May), we had three game's against sub 500 teams. 

We're getting healthy, the pitching staff has rebounded, the Bullpen has been cleaned out, we got an easy scehdule coming up (knock on wood). 

We got a game left against the Royals, than 3 against the Dbacks, 3 against the A's, and 4 against the tigers. IF we can go 8-3 in these 11 game's we would be right there in the race. Plus, the second half of the season looks much easier than the first half and we are playing the A's and Astros allot towards the end. The division and wildcard race could go down to the wire. 

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, Jay said:

Sad to think that none of these pitchers is good enough to start in a playoff series.

National sportswriters don't cover every team as granularly as beat writers do, or knowledgeable fans, for that matter. So Goldstein likely just looks at overall stats, rather than how they might change. So he probably doesn't know how well Heaney and Cobb are pitching, or that Bundy might have found his form in that last start. So if you look at the overall stats, none of them look like #1-3 starters, which is what a team wants to have as a three-man rotation. 

[WicketMaiden]

I like the optimism guys but really, even if they went on a run can you imagine what this team would be like in the play-offs? The hitters might carry it here and there but we all know pitching wins pennants, and regardless of the recent improvements this team is waaaay off having a play-off calibre bull-pen and only has one starter you would trust going twice in a series. 

I hope they trade off all the short term pieces they can and try to get something in return that will help to open a genuine window of contention next year. I wish I could be more optimistic, but this team is just too far away as it is currently constructed with too many holes and too many hot and cold performers.

[Justin]

3 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

I like the optimism guys but really, even if they went on a run can you imagine what this team would be like in the play-offs?

Same. I hate giving up on the season in June, but I am so tired of seeing the same crap each year. I am fine with the team trying something different

[Taylor]

Summary: We'll take whatever you can give us.

[mmc]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Kevin Goldstein over at Fangraphs wrote an article with hypothetical "reach-out calls" from AL teams during trade season. Here is the Angels:

 

The Trout injury and our bad pitching have killed any chances for a playoff run, so we anticipate a very busy next two months. We could end up dealing six to eight players to help replenish the system, but we will be focused on 0-3 players or prospects who are close when engaging with potential dance partners. Thus far, most of the calls we’ve taken want to discuss our pitching. We have three mid-tier starters in Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb who could all help most contenders, although they might not be starting in a playoff series, so our asks will be reasonable. Raisel Iglesias is generating a lot of attention as a high-leverage relief piece who misses bats and throws strikes. Steve Cishek, Alex Claudio and Tony Watson are a trio of bullpen pieces we expect to simply auction off towards the end of July to the highest bidder if they don’t generate earlier interest. José Iglesias can play every day for some teams, but works as a plus utility type nearly everywhere. If you are looking for power, we’d talk Justin Upton. The last year of his contract balloons to $28 million in 2022, and we’d be willing to pick up a healthy chunk of that in the right deal. He has no-trade protection, but that’s always negotiable and he hasn’t played in the postseason since 2013, so he might be open to the discussion.

 

I think that is pretty accurate, although would disagree with the assertion that the Angels have no chance at a playoff run. There play over the last 14 games says otherwise. For one, the offense is starting to come together: Upton is hot, Stassi is scalding, Walsh has cooled a bit but is still holding steady, Ward is improving day by day, Ohtani is Ohtani, etc. Fletcher and Rendon can only get better (and there's little signs that they are, albeit slowly), and Iglesias is solid enough. Meanwhile, the pitching has been a lot better of late.

Meaning, the team is (finally) coming together. They may not make the playoffs, but it is too soon to throw in the towel. That said, I think the above outlines the likely trade candidates and implies what sort of return they might receive. For instance, Upton's play over the last couple weeks all of a sudden makes him tradable, with the caveat that they'd need to throw in cash. 

But again, I think the Angels are still in wait and see mode. If they keep playing like this and go over .500, I don't see them selling - at least not unless they fall back down in July.

 

How many times now have we seen this?  Team starts out like crap, goes on a decent run that makes you think they can turn the season around, collapse again near the deadline and sell, have another good run in September that makes you think the team will actually be good the following season with some improvements, we don't do much and everyone complains about it at first, by the start of the season people find ways to be optimistic about our acquisitions and predict the team to have a serious shot at the postseason, rinse and repeat.  I'll believe it when I see it in regards to this group having a postseason run in them.

[jsnpritchett]

14 minutes ago, mmc said:

How many times now have we seen this?  Team starts out like crap, goes on a decent run that makes you think they can turn the season around, collapse again near the deadline and sell, have another good run in September that makes you think the team will actually be good the following season with some improvements, we don't do much and everyone complains about it at first, by the start of the season people find ways to be optimistic about our acquisitions and predict the team to have a serious shot at the postseason, rinse and repeat.  I'll believe it when I see it in regards to this group having a postseason run in them.

Pretty much a perfect summation.

[Angelsjunky]

14 minutes ago, mmc said:

How many times now have we seen this?  Team starts out like crap, goes on a decent run that makes you think they can turn the season around, collapse again near the deadline and sell, have another good run in September that makes you think the team will actually be good the following season with some improvements, we don't do much and everyone complains about it at first, by the start of the season people find ways to be optimistic about our acquisitions and predict the team to have a serious shot at the postseason, rinse and repeat.  I'll believe it when I see it in regards to this group having a postseason run in them.

Yes, it is the "Vicious Cycle of Mediocrity" - I started a blog post about it, but never finished it. The bottom line is that the Angels are never really bad, but usually not very good - so we're left in this in-between place, year after year.

The one difference this year is that Minasian--perhaps by design--has a bunch of sellable parts. I think the idea is that he'll know if the Angels have a shot worth taking by the ASB, and proceed accordingly. That's still over a month away, so there's time to get a sense of things.

[Taylor]

30 minutes ago, mmc said:

How many times now have we seen this?  Team starts out like crap, goes on a decent run that makes you think they can turn the season around, collapse again near the deadline and sell, have another good run in September that makes you think the team will actually be good the following season with some improvements, we don't do much and everyone complains about it at first, by the start of the season people find ways to be optimistic about our acquisitions and predict the team to have a serious shot at the postseason, rinse and repeat.  I'll believe it when I see it in regards to this group having a postseason run in them.

I think Chuck is somehow responsible because the cycle increases traffic on AW.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, True Grich said:

I've read better fiction in bathroom stalls.

And like half of that was about connie chung

[Second Base]

Remember last year when the Angels were pretty solid but it was too little too late? 

That's basically where we are at this year.  The Angels have sucked, no doubt about it,  but they're only 5-6 games out with four months left to play.  

This team might have a run in them,  particularly when Trout returns,  and the Angels can reap some of their prospect rewards from Adell, Marsh, Thaiss, and Detmers. 

Edited June 9, 2021 by Second Base

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, it is the "Vicious Cycle of Mediocrity" - I started a blog post about it, but never finished it. The bottom line is that the Angels are never really bad, but usually not very good - so we're left in this in-between place, year after year.

The one difference this year is that Minasian--perhaps by design--has a bunch of sellable parts. I think the idea is that he'll know if the Angels have a shot worth taking by the ASB, and proceed accordingly. That's still over a month away, so there's time to get a sense of things.

Mediocrity halos in 6th straight losing season. In 22 will need a SS, RF plus 4 starters and 7 or 8 in bullpen. That is a tall order for Minasian.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

I think Chuck is somehow responsible because the cycle increases traffic on AW.

I believe they will be sellers and this off season some drastic moves should be made. Any deal made can be sweeten by halos in adding Tyler Danish in trade.

[ukyah]

10 hours ago, Justin said:

Same. I hate giving up on the season in June, but I am so tired of seeing the same crap each year. I am fine with the team trying something different

wouldn't them making a playoff run of any depth be something different?

i'm all for the angels making the playoffs. i'm not under any illusions that they're going to win the world series, but some playoff ball would be great.