Pitching and Defense, ERA and FIP

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

We are on an absolutely historical pace in terms of the difference between our era vs. fip.  It's actually quite amazing.  

We have a 1.21 differential right now which would set the major league record as of the turn of the century.  

There are three other seasons where that differential was above 1.0 since 1900.   1930 Phils at 1.17, and 1942 WAS 1.14.  

If you consider the modern era of baseball since 1969 then we would break the record by almost half a run if we stay on our current pace.  

What does this mean?  Bad defense has a part in it.   But just dumb luck is a huge part.  The good news is that this should even out over the course of the season.  Should.  And by A LOT frankly.   Like almost a run per game.  Now some of that means the FIP will come up even if the ERA goes down so it's not all upside but meeting in the middle is half a run per game.  

Half a run per game is 81 runs over a season.  It's 12 runs already.  Imagine the impact that would have even to this point when we're -14 from one game.  

Can we get a modicum of consistency please?  It feel like it's either all or nothing.  5 runs over 3 over 1 run over 6.  Nothing in between.  For the first time in a long time I actually see talent on the mound.  Please figure out how to execute more consistently.  

 

The question is, how much will even out and how much is the result of somewhat controllable factors, like defense and positioning? 
 

Normally I wouldn’t be concerned, but such a massive discrepancy likely means the Angels are doing something poorly. 

[tdawg87]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Normally I wouldn’t be concerned, but such a massive discrepancy likely means the Angels are doing something poorly. 

I agree.

Picture unrelated.

[eligrba]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The question is, how much will even out and how much is the result of somewhat controllable factors, like defense and positioning? 
 

Normally I wouldn’t be concerned, but such a massive discrepancy likely means the Angels are doing something poorly. 

I guess the takeaway is that this discrepancy favors an improvement that is possible.

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I guess the takeaway is that this discrepancy favors an improvement that is possible.

Yes. The problem, though, is that it probably won’t be fixed until the Angels have a consistent outfield, and outfielders who are solid defensively. RF is a black hole, which puts pressure on Trout. Despite Strad’s eyeball test, Upton’s numbers are bad, which puts further pressure on Trout. Trout is solid defensively, but he’s not Darin Erstad.

All of which is my way of saying that the Angels need Marsh as soon as possible.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Angel Oracle]

Iglesias has been a defensive disappointment so far, based on range factor and DWAR amongst AL SS’s.

Twelveth in range factor and tenth in DWAR, and of course the SEVEN errors.

That continues, and one less person to re-sign.

How far away is Paris from MLB?

At least now we can gauge the progress in the minors, unlike 2020.

 

[Angel Oracle]

Which leads to the next question.

If Adames gets back to hitting like he did before this season, is he a main trade target after the season?   Franco is the Rays future SS, which may be after this season.

Adames is one of the best defensive SS’s in the AL.

And unlike Iglesias, doesn’t swing at everything (50 BBs every 600 MLB at bats).

Control through 2024

Edited May 2, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Which leads to the next question.

If Adames gets back to hitting like he did before this season, is he a main trade target after the season?   Franco is the Rays future SS, which may be 2nd half of this season?

Adames is one of the best defensive SS’s in the AL.

Control through 2024

I’d really prefer to use our trade assets for pitching.  With the glut of quality free agent SS I don’t want us trading to get one.  

[Stradling]

No perfect thread for this post but I read it on FB and since it’s positive (so to speak) I thought I’d share it.

Heaney, since the beginning of last year has 18 starts. In 6 of them he has a 11.10 ERA. In the other 12 his ERA is 2.11

Inconsistent, yes, worth having on your team, also yes. He’s damn good 2/3 of the time, like really damn good. 

[Stradling]

 

[T.G.]

[eligrba]

25 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

Feels like it. If only the Angels could have a bullpen of more than two or three trustworthy pitchers, they would be competitive. And maybe more timely hitting. And maybe fewer errors. And maybe better base running. 

[Angel Oracle]

And the jinx is in.

[Stradling]

Just now, Angel Oracle said:

And the jinx is in.

Here you go:

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

No problem, just commenting, already left today’s mark in that thread.