Pitching and Defense, ERA and FIP

[Angelsjunky]

Consider... 

Team ERA: 5.13 (worst in majors)

Team FIP: 3.77 (11th best in majors)

While it is early enough that a lot of that can be chalked up to small sample noise, it is still rather striking what a huge discrepancy that is. The difference between ERA and FIP is generally due to several factors: Defense (higher ERA than FIP usually means poor defense), luck (which is especially relevant in small samples), and pitchability (this is more tenuous because there's no real way to statistically measure it, but certain pitchers are consistently one way or the other).

(For the non-statnerds, FIP means Fielding Independent Pitching and is basically what a pitcher's ERA "should" be regressed to league average results on balls in play. Meaning, it tries to pinpoint a pitchers performance independent of defense and other factors outside of their control).

Now let's look at another:

Team xFIP: 3.62 (5th best in majors)

xFIP is even more "saber-nerdy" than FIP in that it adds another layer, projecting how many home runs a pitcher "should have" given up based upon the number of fly balls. But the point here, is the discrepancy between this and ERA is even greater, but it isn't as huge a factor as it might seem, because they're actually above average in HR/9 at 1.10, which is 12th best in the majors. Meaning, the bigger discrepancy is between FIP and ERA, not xFIP and FIP (and yes, I do get laid).

One more:

Team Defensive Runs: -5.3 (7th worst in majors)

If you look at the team, player by player, by far the worst offender is Justin Upton, with a -3.0 Def (7th worst in the majors almong qualifiers), then you have Ohtani, Pujols, and Walsh all around -2.0. Together, this quartet are all among the 28 worst Def in baseball. One or two is understandable given the DH, but four is a problem. Ohtani is a DH so will have a negative Def no matter what, and Pujols is more negative than usual due to playing significant time at DH. Walsh, as we've seen, needs some work on his defense.

Next up is Luis Rengifo, with a -1.2 Def in just 4 games. Hopefully that is just small sample noise, and thankfully Rendon is back.

Anyhow, it is hard to pinpoint exactly what's wrong, why the team ERA is so much worse than FIP. HR are a factor but a relatively small one, as noted. It seems to be a combination of defense and bad luck. Hopefully with Rendon back and Walsh hopefully becoming more comfortable over time, the defense will improve.

My sense is that the main problem is the outfield. Upton is terrible, which probably makes it harder for Trout (who has a -0.4 Def). It also doesn't help Trout to have a rotating group in RF, none of whom--other than Lagares, who is out--are good defensively. The outfield works as a single unit, and if two sides of it aren't good, it makes it harder for the CF. Trout is still solid, but he's not Darin Erstad.

The luck part should even out, so we should see some improvement in team ERA simply through more games being played. But if I'm the Angels, I'm watching this discrepancy and considering ways to improve the team defensively, especially in the outfield corners. You can't control Lady Luck, but you do have some say in team defense.

[T.G.]

This post is 1/4 the number of words I expected from you...

[tdawg87]

Rengifo just cannot play defense. He might hit but his glove is atrocious.

He's not replacing anyone in the infield and honestly ge scares me as a utility guy.

[Taylor]

Good post. The Angels are also 11th "best" in the majors with 25 HR allowed, although perhaps unsurprisingly 10th worst with 84 walks allowed.

[T.G.]

So I guess this means the Angels defense is about to improve.

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Rengifo just cannot play defense. He might hit but his glove is atrocious.

He's not replacing anyone in the infield and honestly ge scares me as a utility guy.

I'm not ready to write him off yet. He can play 2B-SS-3B, which is hard to do. I think his main issue is psychological: he doesn't get enough time to settle in, so probably tries too hard. Playing defense is not like lifting a heavy rock, it's more like playing drums. The more your mind gets involved, the worse it gets. So his challenge is to relax a bit and trust his muscle memory. 

[Inside Pitch]

On 4/29/2021 at 12:20 PM, tdawg87 said:

Rengifo just cannot play defense. He might hit but his glove is atrocious.

He's not replacing anyone in the infield and honestly ge scares me as a utility guy.

He should have been at 2b...  David Fletcher existing made the decision to play him there ridiculous

[Stradling]

Has Upton looked bad defensively this year?  I haven’t thought so.  I don’t remember a single ball where I thought he should have caught that he didn’t catch. 

[Inside Pitch]

On 4/29/2021 at 12:17 PM, Angelsjunky said:

My sense is that the main problem is the outfield. Upton is terrible, which probably makes it harder for Trout (who has a -0.4 Def). It also doesn't help Trout to have a rotating group in RF, none of whom--other than Lagares, who is out--are good defensively. The outfield works as a single unit, and if two sides of it aren't good, it makes it harder for the CF. Trout is still solid, but he's not Darin Erstad.

The luck part should even out, so we should see some improvement in team ERA simply through more games being played. But if I'm the Angels, I'm watching this discrepancy and considering ways to improve the team defensively, especially in the outfield corners. You can't control Lady Luck, but you do have some say in team defense.

Much like last year when I was harping about the defense from hello, I've been beating this drum again this year.... Thing is, I genuinely believe its been a problem with their positioning/defensive alignments.  Take Upton who you mentioned by name, he's in the top five for OOZ among LFers while also sporting awful Range Factor and UZR.  When you consider how those two stats work then you have to wonder how a guy is getting to stuff he shouldn't while at the same time getting a smaller percentage of balls than average....  

It likely evens out in the long run but early on positioning has been killing the Angels, and its been everywhere.

[Erstad Grit]

Just now, Stradling said:

Has Upton looked bad defensively this year?  I haven’t thought so.  I don’t remember a single ball where I thought he should have caught that he didn’t catch. 

100% agree.

I have been super critical of his defense even immediately after the trade. He's looked fine in LF, even made some good plays off the wall. 

[rageous]

They can fix lot of the defense by playing Walsh exclusively at first and keeping Pujols as limited DH.

Pujols is pretty much a stone statue out on the field.

And Schebler is not the answer at right field as his defense has been just as bad as his offense.

 

[Inside Pitch]

16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Has Upton looked bad defensively this year?  I haven’t thought so.  I don’t remember a single ball where I thought he should have caught that he didn’t catch. 

Exactly, the data is recording what's happened, not why.   The why has been the issue and we have been watching it play out in real time.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Exactly, the data is recording what's happened, not why.   The why has been the issue and we have been watching it play out in real time.

Yea the shifting has seemed to be pretty extreme.  

[Docwaukee]

We are on an absolutely historical pace in terms of the difference between our era vs. fip.  It's actually quite amazing.  

We have a 1.21 differential right now which would set the major league record as of the turn of the century.  

There are three other seasons where that differential was above 1.0 since 1900.   1930 Phils at 1.17, and 1942 WAS 1.14.  

If you consider the modern era of baseball since 1969 then we would break the record by almost half a run if we stay on our current pace.  

What does this mean?  Bad defense has a part in it.   But just dumb luck is a huge part.  The good news is that this should even out over the course of the season.  Should.  And by A LOT frankly.   Like almost a run per game.  Now some of that means the FIP will come up even if the ERA goes down so it's not all upside but meeting in the middle is half a run per game.  

Half a run per game is 81 runs over a season.  It's 12 runs already.  Imagine the impact that would have even to this point when we're -14 from one game.  

Can we get a modicum of consistency please?  It feel like it's either all or nothing.  5 runs over 3 over 1 run over 6.  Nothing in between.  For the first time in a long time I actually see talent on the mound.  Please figure out how to execute more consistently.  

 

[Jay]

How much of the "bad luck" is actually poor managerial decisions, e.g. using the wrong pitcher in the wrong situation, unnecessary pitching changes, etc.

That's something that is unlikely to "even out" over the course of the season.

 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Jay said:

How much of the "bad luck" is actually poor managerial decisions, e.g. using the wrong pitcher in the wrong situation, unnecessary pitching changes, etc.

That's something that is unlikely to "even out" over the course of the season.

 

it's so hard to know and comes with other questions.  what are the offsets to being a poor tactician?  etc.  who knows.  

[Blarg]

On 4/30/2021 at 5:05 PM, Inside Pitch said:

It likely evens out in the long run but early on positioning has been killing the Angels, and its been everywhere.

I blame the dugout. Which in turn makes it's positional charts from data provided from above them in the food chain. What it isn't coming from is the experience of the guy in the field. That is where I think this entire data driven game fails, there is no instinct in play. 

Upton, like the 6 other position players look at his sheet and follows that instead of looking at what his pitcher is doing an use what he knows of the other team and adjusts accordingly. Probably what set Simmons defense apart from any other, he was locked into the moment, pitch by pitch and made his own 3 step adjustments based on all factors in play.

So without enough data (which every season each player differs slightly in the offense and every pitcher the same) the end result is posdibly playing out of position and then fans yell, he should have got to that!

Not sure we were better off before but you kind of knew who was at fault. 

[tdawg87]

I blame Blarg.

[eligrba]

On 4/30/2021 at 2:04 PM, Stradling said:

Has Upton looked bad defensively this year?  I haven’t thought so.  I don’t remember a single ball where I thought he should have caught that he didn’t catch. 

What are you going to believe, stats or your lying eyes?

[Blarg]

24 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I blame Blarg.

Ok.

[Stradling]

25 minutes ago, eligrba said:

What are you going to believe, stats or your lying eyes?

Both.  I haven’t watched every game but he seems to be moving well and getting to the balls he should get to.  I saw one play where a stronger arm would have nailed a guy at the plate.  I also remember not watching a game and reading a post about Upton being Upton.  But to me he looks better defensively than the last two years.  

[Angel Oracle]

33 minutes ago, eligrba said:

What are you going to believe, stats or your lying eyes?

 

[tdawg87]

9 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Ok.

[Angel Oracle]

There is one defensive OF that could send t-dawg to his favorite spot.

Trout, Adams, Marsh

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

There is one defensive OF that could send t-dawg to his favorite spot.

Trout, Adams, Marsh