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SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19


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32 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

He will never choose to be gay because, while he is in no way genetically predisposed to liking women, he simply chooses to despite the impulses pulling him equally in both directions.

Don’t try to pin your life struggles on me. I do wish you luck in your journey to happiness.

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10 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

I'd be curious to know of the 1M confirmed cases how many people tested didn't come up positive.  If any of what's been reported in NY, CA and some other areas go as far as random testing for antibodies the actual number of people who have had the virus in the US is well over 1M. 

50-100 million

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16 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

I'd be curious to know of the 1M confirmed cases how many people tested didn't come up positive.  If any of what's been reported in NY, CA and some other areas go as far as random testing for antibodies the actual number of people who have had the virus in the US is well over 1M. 

I though I read somewhere that testing results in about 10% of those tested coming up positive 

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5 minutes ago, Jason said:

I though I read somewhere that testing results in about 10% of those tested coming up positive 

I’ve seen that in so cal about 13% of those tested have turned up positive.  Of course this is with pretty limited testing and for a long time only people showing symptoms and at risk. 

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That's a pretty big leap from 1 million to 50-100 million, especially when you consider worldwide we don't come close to that total. I expect the number is greater than 1 million, but for the number to be in the 50-100 million range you would have to say the infection rate of NYC, which they show to be about 25% of the city, is the same throughout the country.

A lot of this all comes back to the same story from the beginning though. The lack of a consistent and workable testing strategy has hampered the US from the outset. Hell, at this point we don't appear to be any closer to a national testing strategy, and the federal government doesn't appear to be working on one, and that's going to be one of the biggest issues when it comes to starting to getting things moving again.

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3 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

We just don’t know.  That’s the answer.  It’s very likely that the number is a good deal bigger then 1 million.  25% of the population is a stretch. 

LA and Stanford studies were about 3% of the population.  

NY on the other hand is about 13% statewide, and 25% in the city.  

In the long run, NY might be better off if herd immunity is actually a thing, and the other states with low infection rates will just get a recurring outbreak after outbreak until a viable vaccine is created.

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I keep seeing the R0 is between 2-4. It has been here since December by conservative estimates. We didn't socially distance until mid-march. Either the 2-4 number is wrong or its a huge fucking number.

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