Three Lineup Questions (and Answers) for 2020

[totdprods]

3 hours ago, RBM said:

Kelly is a wishlist and I know it's unlikely.

I think Robbie Ray is a possibility and really do believe Eppler can get it done without Marsh.

He might be able to do it without Marsh, but I fear it’d be something like Suarez, Jackson, and Knowles. It'd require an extra name or two from lower-level guys to compensate for lack of MLB ready talent, and then it turns into a quantity over quality deal, which is just as risky given our still relatively thin farm at least when considering the vast gap between AAA hitters and Rookie Ball hitters and the chasm in between...too much for a rental. 

Fortunately, I think the last month or two have really helped Marsh, Jones, Thaiss, Rengifo, and all of our SPs up their trade value - that doesn't mean I'm advocating open game on dealing them, but they've all done a fine job increasing their value to the point where if we had to swing a trade, Marsh might make up 50% of the value going back, instead of 25-33% like he would have in mid-July, or how Jones might be creeping back into a 25% value in a potential deal, where before he would've been a throw-in. Thaiss and Rengifo I believe have shown enough to prove they have a future floor of, at least, an average MLB player, and all of our SPs have shown enough encouraging peripherals here and there to allow an acquiring team to dream.

Edited August 26, 2019 by totdprods

[jgimondo]

18 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

1. Do the Angels pick up Kole Calhoun's option?

Short answer: No, or at least probably not. Kole is having his best year since 2016, hitting .237/.328/.480, a 111 wRC+ and a 2.1 fWAR, which puts him #77 of 146 qualifying MLB hitters. While that's not exactly star cailber, it is quite solid - and remember that an average full-time player is a pretty good baseball player. There are three reasons they don't pick up his option: $12 million, Jo Adell, and Brian Goodwin. The Angels save $12 million by not taking his $14 million option (there's a $2M opt out), which is money they desperately need to spend on pitching. While Jo Adell could probably use a bit more AAA seasoning, he doesn't need a full season's worth - and probably only needs a month or two; you don't want to block one of the best prospects in all of baseball, especially when he could probably equal Kole's performance right now for <5% of the cost. Finally, Brian Goodwin--after starting really strong and then cooling off--has been playing really well again, stabilizing as a pretty good player. Through 8/25 he's hitting .284/.346/.502 with a 123 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR in 348 PA. In other words, even if his .365 BABIP goes down next year, he's probably about as good as Calhoun with the bat. He's not a good defender, but he's good enough to hold the fort until Adell is ready - with Michael Hermosillo, or a possible free agent, as the 4th outfielder.

So while we're going to miss our favorite ginger, you don't spend $12M just because he's a fan favorite, especially when you can replace his production quite easily from within for much less, and when it would block the Angels' best prospect since Mike Trout. Thank you for the memories, Kole.

2. How do the Angels solve the infield logjam?

SS is the only clear answer, with (a hopefully healthy and resurgent) Andrelton Simmons playing full time in (possibly) his last year as an Angel. At first they have Pujols, Thaiss, Walsh, Ward, and maybe eventually Upton if Brandon Marsh plays well in Salt Lake. At 2B/3B/UT they have a rising Rengifo, a solid Fletcher, a surprising La Stella, a promising Thaiss, and an adjectiveless Cozart - and even Quad-A Jose Rojas could factor in.

The two groups--1B and 2B/3B/UT--are linked by Thaiss, who could play either 1B or 3B, but otherwise the other players are either/or. So what will happen? How will it play out? The easy answer is that whoever plays the best, plays the most. Maybe that is a cop out, but that's just how it is. The only thing we know for certain is that Simmons will be pencilled in as full-time. I would guess that Cozart is released in spring training. La Stella will be given the chance to build upon his breakout first half of 2019, which leaves Fletcher and Rengifo for 2B/UT. I think Fletcher is as good as he'll get; maybe he stabilizes as a .300 hitter, but I don't think he'll improve substantially from what we've seen -- which is plenty good enough to either start at 3B or be a super utility player. Rengifo has a lot of room to grow, however; right now he's not as good as Fletcher, but it would seem he has greater upside.

Thaiss has flashed major league talent in his 113 PA so far, but also looks lost at the plate at times and very rough at 3B. 2020 could see him in a Luis Valbuena role, playing 1B/3B as necessary. He could also be a trade candidate - as could Ward, who doesn't seem to have a place on the major league club (ditto Rojas). Walsh might have a slight edge for a roster spot due to his two-way capability, but might not be good enough at either "way" to warrant a roster spot.

So there are no clear answers. Chances are Simmons and La Stella are full-time, Pujols playing time is diminished, Cozart is let go of, at least one of Thaiss, Ward, Walsh and Rojas are traded; it may even be that the Angels package Fletcher or Rengifo in a trade for a pitcher, or La Stella if he comes back healthy and hits well for a couple weeks to end the year. But there could be surprises. What if Cozart looks great in spring? What if La Stella doesn't? There are lots of moving parts, but at least we can say with some degree of certainty that all of those parts are already on the team.

3. Whither Catcher?

It is hard to imagine the Angels starting the year with Max Stassi and Kevan Smith as the catching tandem, with Anthony Bemboom and Dustin Garneau as depth (what happened to Jose Briceno?). Both are very limited players and the back-ups are back-ups to back-ups. Best-case scenario and Stassi re-discovers and builds upon the player he was in 2018, and Smith re-finds the bat he showed earlier in the year, and stays healthy. But it could also be disastrous.

I've advocated for the Angels going hard after Yasmani Grandal. He's going to be 31 years old and pretty expensive--my guess is something like 3/$45M--but he's having his fifth year in a row of 4+ fWAR, a span in which his overally 23.9 fWAR leads all MLB catchers. Think about that for a moment: having a 4 WAR catcher; in the 59 years of Angels baseball, they've only had a 4 WAR catcher three times: Ellie Rodriguez in 1974 (4.0), Brian Downing in 1979 (5.0), and Lance Parrish in 1990 (4.6). Bob Boone's best was 3.2 (twice), and Bengie Molina's was 2.2. Even if he starts to decline, the Angels could do worse than getting 10+ fWAR out of Grandal over the next three years.

But even though Grandal would basically be a replacement for Calhoun on payroll, chances are Eppler goes the budget route and signs a cheaper free agent. Travis D'Arnaud, perhaps? 

Summary (or the TLDR Version)

1) So...no on Kole, with Goodwin warming RF for Adell until he's ready  sometime in the first half (my guess would be May or June), with Hermosillo as 4th outfielder.

2) We'll just have to see how it goes in the infield, with numerous configurations. But it will work itself out internally by who plays best (and is healthy).

3) Who knows? Unlike the IF, the question is whether or not to seek outside help, and if the answer is yes--which it probably should be--do they go big (Grandal) or another patch-job? My hope is Grandal but I would guess something more like d'Arnaud.

Garneau is with the A`s and Briceno was let go.

[Jeff Fletcher]

13 minutes ago, jgimondo said:

Garneau is with the A`s and Briceno was let go.

Briceño was hurt most of the year. 

And it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Angels go with Stassi and Smith as their catchers. They really need to spend all their resources (money and prospects) on pitching. The Red Sox won the World Series with baseball’s worst production at catcher. You can punt one position, especially if it’s catcher. 

[totdprods]

19 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

1. Do the Angels pick up Kole Calhoun's option?

I had floated the idea of Kole's option being picked up awhile back only if Eppler calculated that the winter trade market and mid-tier FA SP market would be beyond comfortable for him, and he opted to maybe go Cole-or-bust in addition to doubling down on the offense and maybe instead putting some money into the pen - a different approach, but I think at this point any path to improving the team could be considered. Also at the time, I wasn't convinced Adell would be MLB-ready Opening Day 2020 (and still not convinced) and didn't feel overtly comfortable relying on Brian Goodwin as a stopgap as his best play in 2020 came with a .400 BAbip. 

But Brian Goodwin's really solid play in recent weeks is starting to make the first month of the year look less like a fluke. Hermosillo's hit well in SLC recently too, and it'd probably benefit the Angels to give him a bit of a shot in early 2020 before Adell/Marsh push him out for good. Lund could wind up on the 40-man too since he's R5 eligible. Allow Walsh/Fletcher some RF time in ST and I feel much more comfortable now in assuming Calhoun's option will be declined. Adam Jones' $2.5m deal last winter and comparable players hitting FA this winter lead me to believe a good 4th OF vet could also come into play.

19 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

2. How do the Angels solve the infield logjam?

Hopefully, they don't have to. Championship teams have great depth. If the Opening Day SLC infield consists of Ward, Rengifo, Jones, and Thaiss, with La Stella, Simmons, Fletcher, and Pujols in the bigs and maybe Walsh/Cozart backing up, we're in damn good shape, and hopefully won't need to spend money or playing time on guys like Tovar or Bour next year. 

More than likely though, Eppler will have to make a trade for pitching in some form - regardless of Cole or any other FAs signed - I expect Eppler to target a good addition to the pen or rotation via trade using at least one infielder. I maintain that La Stella should be given every opportunity to replicate his 2019 next year. He'll be in his walk year and I don't think he's going to have the trade value many on the board here expect. Scooter Gennett and Zack Cozart had similar surges and were never traded. Teams will be leery. The Angels are much better off holding onto him and hoping he picks up right where he left off. He's perfect insurance if any of the infielders stumble as they adjust to the bigs and his versatility allows a lot of contingencies for multiple scenarios. If he really does become superfluous as 2020 goes on, my guess is the Angels can trade him at the deadline (if he's producing and unessential) for a haul not too different from what they'd get for him this winter. If he hits .850 OPS the first-half of 2020, it's much safer to assume an acquiring team will believe it's legit and utilize him as a big piece to a playoff run. 

19 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

3. Whither Catcher?

I'm willing to give Stassi time still. Reed and Wooten have done some legit good work, and I'm sure Stassi's focus since arriving has been much more tuned to learning the staff. He'll need the offseason to get that work and has shown some solid bat skills in the minors and briefly in the bigs. Kevan Smith has proven to be a little too injury-prone for my tastes, not a good thing with thin catching depth in the minors. Not sure Bemboom survives the offseason on the 40-man. I really like the idea of signing Avila, Castro, d'Arnaud, Maldonado, Romine, even Vogt or Wieters on cheap deals as back-ups. Castro could be solid as the main guy. I'm flatly not interested in Grandal based on his age and price tag. I don't think the offense is needed, and Eppler can find comparable or better defense cheaper.

[floplag]

18 hours ago, wopphil said:

The team should be giving at bats to Ward and Walsh, and playing Thaiss and Rengifo full time. Let's see what these guys can do and whether they can be counted on to help next year.

The team is loaded in positional players who are somewhere between competent and superstar. All available money should be spent on pitching. 

This
Its over, lets stop pretending it isnt, and lets see what weve got.  We need some answers.

[Angel Oracle]

5 hours ago, totdprods said:

And that brings me back to Boyd being the most realistic trade target...Ray is certainly has the track record, but Boyd’s control ultimately tips the scale for me. And the salary. The difference in arb salary between the two is a #5 SP, a good vet RP, or a solid vet catcher, or two decent bench bats. 

I was surprised to see Sanchez had rebounded so well, if I recall he was pretty awful to start the year. Still - he’ll be 36 next year and his strikeouts are dropping, walks increasing, hits increasing...he’d have to come at a very low price. One of Walsh or Rojas and maybe a throw-in arm is about as high as I’d go. It’d have to be framed as a salary dump for Washington, which is possible.

Sanchez actually rebounded a year ago, after three bad seasons.    Sub 3.00 ERA and sub 1.10 WHIP

Outside of April, he's been decent/solid enough in 2019.    But yes, due to age, the asking price should be low enough.

[Angel Oracle]

Cole, a 2 year-contract for a second starting pitcher, a late innings guy, and Machete sounds good to me for an off-season. 

[totdprods]

56 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Sanchez actually rebounded a year ago, after three bad seasons.    Sub 3.00 ERA and sub 1.10 WHIP

Outside of April, he's been decent/solid enough in 2019.    But yes, due to age, the asking price should be low enough.

Yeah, he was great last year, the rebound I spoke of was from his poor start to the year. Peripherals are a little worrisome. But agreed that he could be a very cheap add to lock down the #5 spot. 

In my ideal world, the Angels...

• sign a #1 (I'm pretty close to Cole or bust, not really interested in Ryu/Bumgarner...Hamels is my exception as the yearly commit should be low)
• trade for a #2-3-4 type, varying based on cost...Ray, Stroman, Junis, Bundy, Boyd, Martinez, Freeland, Urena
• sign/trade a cheap flyer #5 (Sanchez, Hellickson, Bailey, Gibson, Miley, Moore, Roark, Gausman, Chatwood, whoever offers the best blend of cheap, average, and inning-eating)
• and then with the remaining money plug in either...
  • 1) a decent veteran reliever (or two if they go the ST invite route like Petit and Norris again) or
  • 2) a platoon catcher for Stassi, maybe more offense-oriented but defense never hurts
  • and 3) a cheap cheap vet IF with versatility, such as Kendrick, but Schoop, Walker, Holt, Forsyth, Gennett, Flores, presumably because we've dealt some IF depth away for pitching help

Or, I guess they could try and sign two of the top six or seven SP, but I imagine that taps out budget to the point where they have to call it a day...wouldn't be upset with that at all but would worry about the flexibility of payroll and roster and how it affects our ability to tweak throughout the year and next offseason. Lotta faith in the kids that way, which isn't necessarily a bad thing...just might mean another transition year, which I've kind of expected 2020 to be for a couple years now anyways.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Briceño was hurt most of the year. 

And it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Angels go with Stassi and Smith as their catchers. They really need to spend all their resources (money and prospects) on pitching. The Red Sox won the World Series with baseball’s worst production at catcher. You can punt one position, especially if it’s catcher. 

Agreed if you're talking offense. Not so much defense and handling pitchers. 

I'm still not sure how I feel about Fangraphs recent Def adjustment for catchers, but at the least it does illustrate just how valuable a good catcher can be. 

But if Stassi and his platoon partner (be it Smith or someone else) can be solid defensively and hit above the Mathis Line, I'm fine with that, even while being somewhat wistful about Grandal.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

But Brian Goodwin's really solid play in recent weeks is starting to make the first month of the year look less like a fluke. Hermosillo's hit well in SLC recently too, and it'd probably benefit the Angels to give him a bit of a shot in early 2020 before Adell/Marsh push him out for good. Lund could wind up on the 40-man too since he's R5 eligible. Allow Walsh/Fletcher some RF time in ST and I feel much more comfortable now in assuming Calhoun's option will be declined. Adam Jones' $2.5m deal last winter and comparable players hitting FA this winter lead me to believe a good 4th OF vet could also come into play. piece to a playoff run. 

 

I really don't see the need for signing anything more than a journeyman OF to stash in Salt Lake.

The Angels start the year with Upton-Trout-Goodwin, Hermosillo as 4OF and semi-platoon with Goodwin.

Once Adell is ready, and assuming Upton and Trout are healthy, he takes over in RF with Goodwin as 4OF and Hermosillo sent back to AAA. Alternately, the Angels trade Goodwin and leave Hermosillo as 4OF.

Meanwhile, Brandon Marsh is in AAA, probably ready by year's end. Lund is a depth. Maybe Walsh and/or Ward as well.

My problem with signing a vet 4th OF is that it basically says the org has no faith in Hermosillo. I'd like to see him given a shot as I think he could be a really good 4th OF.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Briceño was hurt most of the year. 

And it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Angels go with Stassi and Smith as their catchers. They really need to spend all their resources (money and prospects) on pitching. The Red Sox won the World Series with baseball’s worst production at catcher. You can punt one position, especially if it’s catcher. 

Smith has been hurt a lot though.   How about bringing Machete back?

[Jeff Fletcher]

19 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Smith has been hurt a lot though.   How about bringing Machete back?

If he’ll sign for $1-2M maybe. He’s getting old and I’m not sure would be better than Stassi in 2020.

[Angel Oracle]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If he’ll sign for $1-2M maybe. He’s getting old and I’m not sure would be better than Stassi in 2020.

I was thinking more in terms of instead of Smith.

[Jeff Fletcher]

31 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I was thinking more in terms of instead of Smith.

If you want two catchers who are defensive specialists, I suppose. Smith has more offensive upside than any of them. 

[Docwaukee]

Fletcher can play the OF.  You've always got the option of throwing him in LF or RF with La Stella at 3b, Rengifo at 2b.  Goodwin will be the 4th OFer and platoon option.  Herm has options.  You don't need another OFer.  

Both Marsh and Adell will be ready in 2020.  

As for C, they better be sure that Stassi and Smith can provide something.  They said they are happy with Stassi behind the plate even though his offense is about as bad as we've seen.  I would prefer another decent backup C but since neither Smith or Stassi have options, that isn't likely. 

I'm gonna get this out there now because it should also be someone expected or within the realm of possible, but if we get Cole, we might see them go with a bargain type player like Miley.  

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 8/25/2019 at 3:19 PM, Angelsjunky said:

There are three reasons they don't pick up his option: $12 million, Jo Adell, and Brian Goodwin. The Angels save $12 million by not taking his $14 million option (there's a $2M opt out), which is money they desperately need to spend on pitching

His buyout is only $1M.

Does the buyout count towards the 2020 luxury tax?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 8/25/2019 at 3:19 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Rengifo has a lot of room to grow, however; right now he's not as good as Fletcher, but it would seem he has greater upside.

Rengifo has more power than Fletcher for sure, but he has a long way to go to match Fletcher's defense, versatility and clutch hitting. Advantage Fletcher...

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 8/25/2019 at 6:31 PM, thebloob said:

If they are going to go back to the every six day, you need to find ANOTHER pitcher. 

It was a six man rotation, but Ohtani only pitched once a week. They only used a 6th pitcher occasionally, when the schedule didn't have a day off in that week. The juggled the rotation a lot to get Ohtani his usual Sunday start.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Dtwncbad]

I don’t see a good reason to go back to Ohtani pitching just in Sundays.  That was kind of an accommodation to make his transition to the big leagues easy, replicating was he was used to doing.

The dude hasn’t pitched in how long?  He isn’t used to any particular schedule at this point and he is surely quite comfortable overall in his transition to American baseball here in the states now.

If they have to put him on a strict pitch count then fine, but just roll him into a normal rotation.

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Rengifo has more power than Fletcher for sure, but he has a long way to go to match Fletcher's defense, versatility and clutch hitting. Advantage Fletcher...

Which is why I see Rengifo as better suited for being the full-time 2B, and Fletcher the super UT. But Rengifo has a good amount of flexibility and so we'll likely see both move around a bit.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I don’t see a good reason to go back to Ohtani pitching just in Sundays.  That was kind of an accommodation to make his transition to the big leagues easy, replicating was he was used to doing.

The dude hasn’t pitched in how long?  He isn’t used to any particular schedule at this point and he is surely quite comfortable overall in his transition to American baseball here in the states now.

If they have to put him on a strict pitch count then fine, but just roll him into a normal rotation.

A few reasons...

1) He'll still be on an innings-limit one year following TJS, so it would help manage that.
2) It was done as it lined up with his once-a-week rotation schedule in Japan (as you mentioned) which they might want to still keep him on. Just because he's been stateside doesn't mean the work involved or recovery time has changed. 
3) Sundays are very often followed by off-days on Mondays. By keeping him set on Sundays, you get to give him a recovery day on Monday when there's no game, instead of a game day where you'd lose him as a DH. 

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Which is why I see Rengifo as better suited for being the full-time 2B, and Fletcher the super UT. But Rengifo has a good amount of flexibility and so we'll likely see both move around a bit.

Agreed 100%. Give Rengifo 2B and let Fletcher roam throughout the field as needed. Get him some OF reps too as we may need some 4th OF depth next year if we start the season with Adell in AAA and Goodwin in RF. 

If Cozart's still a thing he can be the glove-first UT IF that can come in for La Stella at 3B late in the game.