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These 'out of it' teams could contend in '20


Chuck

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By my calculations, to contend next season the Angels will need to:

1. Sign a front-line SP

2. Sign/trade for a #2/3 SP

3. Sign/trade for a catcher who can hit at least a little bit

4. Hope La Stella can return to pre-injury form

5. Hope Middleton is fully recovered and sign/trade for another solid BP arm.

6. Hope Ohtani can pitch well.

7. Hope a few young starters progress.

All of this while the teams ahead of them will also be trying to improve.

History tells us we will also have injuries to deal with. 

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Just now, Glen said:

By my calculations, to contend next season the Angels will need to:

1. Sign a front-line SP

2. Sign/trade for a #2/3 SP

3. Sign/trade for a catcher who can hit at least a little bit

4. Hope La Stella can return to pre-injury form

5. Hope Middleton is fully recovered and sign/trade for another solid BP arm.

6. Hope Ohtani can pitch well.

7. Hope a few young starters progress.

All of this while the teams ahead of them will also be trying to improve.

History tells us we will also have injuries to deal with. 

So sign and hope. 

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17 hours ago, Glen said:

By my calculations, to contend next season the Angels will need to:

1. Sign a front-line SP

2. Sign/trade for a #2/3 SP

3. Sign/trade for a catcher who can hit at least a little bit

4. Hope La Stella can return to pre-injury form

5. Hope Middleton is fully recovered and sign/trade for another solid BP arm.

6. Hope Ohtani can pitch well.

7. Hope a few young starters progress.

All of this while the teams ahead of them will also be trying to improve.

History tells us we will also have injuries to deal with. 

As for the offense, I think they're fine.  They are 10th in the MLB in runs even with Ohtani missing a month, LaStella missing half a season, Lucroy/Garneau/Smith/Stassi being 'meh', Simmons down and injured, Upton injured and struggling, Thaiss going through growing pains, and Bour, Bourjos, and Tovas sucking.  

Between Trout, Upton, Goodwin, and Adell, they have the OF covered for next season.  As much as I harp on Upton, he's not going to continue to hit .213 .310 .714 88 OPS+.  While I don't anticipate another 2017 (.273 .361 .901 OPS 136 OPS+ 5.8 WAR), somewhere between 2018 (.257 .344 .808 120 OPS+ 3.8 WAR) and his career numbers (.266 .347 .823 OPS 120 OPS+) is reasonable and expected for a 32 year old.  Trout is Trout.  Goodwin (.284 .346 .847 OPS 121 OPS+ 2 WAR) can play all three OF positions along Adell covering RF, not to mention Walsh, Ward, Hermosillo, and even Fletcher providing depth.

The infield, outside of catcher, is pretty set as well.  Fletcher is set and can provide realistic defensive coverage at 2B, SS and 3B while giving them a .285 .340 .725 OPS 100 OPS+ bat.  While not All Star level, he's on pace for near a 4 WAR.  Simmons has been beleaguered by injuries this season and his offensive timing took a hit; 2017/2018 offensive numbers are realistic for him in 2020 plus his defense makes him valuable even if he repeats 2019.  Rengifo has held his own this year at the young age of 22 and has good power and speed.  As for LaStella, hard to say how he bounces back but, based on history, you know he will get on base and has some pop.  Thaiss, for me, is the biggest question mark both offensively and defensively.  The talent is there as, despite his rather abysmal batting average, he can draw a walk and hits lefties well as a lefthanded batter (.294 .368 .898 OPS 2 BB 4 K in 17 PAs).  With everyone healthy, you have Pujols at 1B against lefties, LaStella at 1B, 2B, and 3B, Rengifo at 2B and SS, Simmons at SS, Fletcher at 2B, SS, 3B, LF and Thaiss at 3B and 1B.  That's pretty deep and enough to sustain the run scoring if they decide go with Smith and Stassi to start 2020.

The success for the Angels next season will be based on what they can get from their rotation which means getting three starters will be essential if they want to compete in 2020.  I think, personally, they go hard after Cole and are able to snag him so the rest of the offseason is about getting two other starters without completely exceeding the tax threshold (or only exceeding it temporarily) and completely gutting our prospect capital.  

Now, stop me if you've heard this one before but, between Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Suarez, Pena, Peters, Sandoval, Tropeano, and Beasley, you have enough to provide options at #4 and #5 in the rotation plus depth at swing man.  I think they get a mid-level starter and trade for a 3rd.  One out-of-the-box thought, sign Anthony Rendon, cover 3B for the  next 4-5 years and trade for two starters - one meant for a #3 starter with 2 years or so of control and one Heaney-like trade where you get an solid pitcher with 5 years of control.

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