The Angels shine in K-BB% versus wOBA

[totdprods]

@True Grich I don’t think anyone here is jumping for joy about this team or anointing then - they’ve been a mixed bag, they’ve played like a mixed bag, their record reflects it, their run differential reflects it. The pitching has been awful, and the offense been strong enough to overcome a lot of that weakness, as evident in the data above and the fact we’ve managed to eek out a near .500 record to date. 

Since that awful first week, we’ve had an above-average offense and that’s been the biggest reason we’ve managed to have a winning record since that time. This data has also been consistent since the season opened and as data was recorded, suggesting this isn’t really fluky. 

But as also mentioned, data doesn’t always mean wins. Luck is still a factor. 

[Inside Pitch]

Jesus.....  Those of you dismissing this because of the W/L record....   

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

This is why they are under .500.      

[T.G.]

I'm not dismissing anything. If anything, I'm venting.  Let me say this again...  It's Monday and I'm cranky.  

[T.G.]

For the record:

I'm encouraged by their improved play, but I'm also skeptical of their improved play until they they start beating teams like Houston.

Again... taking two of three from Minnesota will make me feel less cranky. 

Other than the games with Minnesota both in Minnie and in Anaheim - the schedule looks to be soft enough for the Angels to win more games than they lose. 

 

[Inside Pitch]

21 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The Angels are great at making contact, they collectively don't do as much damage with the contract that they make. That's not a big problem though mostly because when you infuse hitters like Ohtani and Upton, you're slugging and thus ops will increase. 

But the offense as is, while not prolific, is proficient.

Believe it or not they are actually middle of the pack in terms of ISO (.179).   So, they are hitting the ball with greater authority as a team than at any point in the previous 5 years including last year when they ranked in the top 10 (.171).  Considering they are where they are without much of a contribution from Ohtani and none at all from Upton there is reason to believe they will improve on it.  

The problem as you said is a rotation that ranks among the bottom three in MLB.   They aren't a finished product yet, but at least the systems in place are working -- it should all translate into wins as the talent level increases.

[T.G.]

 

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

  Considering they are where they are without much of a contribution from Ohtani and none at all from Upton there is reason to believe they will improve on it. 

Speaking of Ohtani... someone please remind me... why did he wait to have his TJ surgery?

Edited May 13, 2019 by True Grich

[Inside Pitch]

10 minutes ago, True Grich said:

I'm not dismissing anything. If anything, I'm venting.  Let me say this again...  It's Monday and I'm cranky.  

I get that, which is why I haven't really made any pointed comments.   But you can't really say you aren't dismissing it when you have said point blank "I ignore this stuff".  It's Monday and you're cranky but anyone not seeing this as a positive is failing to see that all the other teams on the far right and upper portion of the graph are playing exceedingly well.   The reason we arent -- the SP.

7 minutes ago, True Grich said:

For the record:

I'm encouraged by their improved play, but I'm also skeptical of their improved play until they they start beating teams like Houston.

The graph isn't really arguing the team is playing better, it's showing that they are doing better in one facet of the game.    They will play better when the other parts of the equation start catching up to what they are doing well.

 

[DCAngelsFan]

31 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Jesus.....  Those of you dismissing this because of the W/L record....   

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

This is why they are under .500.      

Very cool - click on the ERA column, and you'll see "we're second best in the league!"  

Then you realize that's a reverse sort, and we're second worst.  

Take your victories where you can find them, even if they're imaginary and fleeting ...   

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, True Grich said:

 

Speaking of Ohtani... someone please remind me... why did he wait to have his TJ surgery?

He just didn't want to do it until after the season.   Beyond that -- I think it's been said that waiting wasn't going to impact his timetable as a pitcher any.   Why he wanted to play out the year..  I don't recall if he gave a reason why other than maybe he wanted to continue to play or get as much time in as a hitter.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, DCAngelsFan said:

Very cool - click on the ERA column, and you'll see "we're second best in the league!"  

Then you realize that's a reverse sort, and we're second worst.  

LOL, yeah... the rotation has been awful.

[T.G.]

"Ignore" as in... I don't pay any attention to it because I don't get my "baseball joy" from diving into the statistical analysis of the game.  I know it has value... I know it's a critical part of every front office - it's just not my thing. 

That being said...

IP, I know it's your thing... and I appreciate that about you.  I've always valued your opinions because you take all these factors into consideration.  You back up your opinions with data. You're still the 800lb gorilla... I'm just the chimp swinging from a tree, eating a banana and looking for a chance to drop a coconut on someone's head.

 

Edited May 13, 2019 by True Grich

[T.G.]

The Angels only struck out six times yesterday...

 

[Angel Oracle]

48 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Jesus.....  Those of you dismissing this because of the W/L record....   

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

This is why they are under .500.      

It's pathetic, when only the White Sox have a worse starting pitching ERA.

Thanks for NOTHING, Doug White, Harvey, and Cahill!

Bright side, the after effects from the Dumbpoto stench will soon be gone. 

[Second Base]

28 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Believe it or not they are actually middle of the pack in terms of ISO (.179).   So, they are hitting the ball with greater authority as a team than at any point in the previous 5 years including last year when they ranked in the top 10 (.171).  Considering they are where they are without much of a contribution from Ohtani and none at all from Upton there is reason to believe they will improve on it.  

The problem as you said is a rotation that ranks among the bottom three in MLB.   They aren't a finished product yet, but at least the systems in place are working -- it should all translate into wins as the talent level increases.

It is a work in progress as you say, but I sort of feel like the only guys that really end up making major league contributions on a consistent basis are the ones that post pretty elite numbers in the low minors and have the fastball and braking ball to back it up. 

Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, and Canning were all those guys. I just wonder if Barria, Suarez and Sandoval will end up in a major league rotation simply because of that lack of upside, and that's essentially where I see Bradish. I mean if it works out, great, but I saw what materialized of all those high floor arms Dipoto drafted. Mostly nothing. 

So as far as help on the way, maybe back end guys. But Soriano and Chris Rodriguez are in the early stages of that Richards-Canning mold that produces major leaguers.

I suppose it's just my long winded way of saying that we need more upside arms in the upper levels of the system.

[Docwaukee]

It's always been the starting pitching that would be the problem.  

the offense started slow and is now 11th by WAR and on the way up.  A couple guys are out over their skis but a couple others have gotten going yet so overall, I think the current offensive performance is what we should expect for the rest of the year.  I also think there are some reinforcements.  

while I think our rotation blows, I don't think Cahill and Harvey end up with eras over 6 and almost 7.  I think Canning will keep getting better.  I think Skaggs will be a bit better even if he's not what people think he should be.  Heaney is a solid pitcher and on the way back.  Pena is solid as well.  So I think it will get better although probably not enough to make the team a contender.  

We knew that for this team to be competitive, a couple things would need to happen as far as the rotation was concerned.  

They would have to stay healthy - nope
Skaggs would have to turn a corner and become a borderline top of the rotation starter - nope
Harvey would have to regain his form and pitch like borderline top of the rotation guy - nope
Cahill would need to pitch like a mid rotation guy - nope
Pena would have to be solid - yep.  
Young arms or other guys from AAA would have to fill in and do well - nope.  

the problem is that most of those guys have not only performed below expectations, but WAY below.  It's unfortunate that the rotation fix isn't likely to happen this year even if they do get better, but there is hope.  
 

[Inside Pitch]

9 minutes ago, True Grich said:

"Ignore" as in... I don't pay any attention to it because I don't get my "baseball joy" from diving into the statistical analysis of the game.  I know it has value... I know it's a critical part of every front office - it's just not my thing. 

That being said...

IP, I know it's your thing... and I appreciate that about you.  I've always valued your opinions because you take all these factors into consideration.  You back up your opinions with data. You're still the 800lb gorilla... I'm just the chimp swinging from a tree, eating a banana and looking for a chance to drop a coconut on someone's head.

 

You're right, I try to use stats to support my opinions but you'd be surprised to hear me say this ... stats are not really my thing.  My thing was playing the game -- from T-ball through college -- I get much more enjoyment of the game from the toolsy aspects of the sport which is why I love watching minor league baseball as much as I do and why Simmons is one of my favorite players.  When push comes to shove, I turned to stats to support my views as a former player -- because I was sure the guys talking numbers were geeks with pocket protectors who would crap themselves if they ever actually had to face a upper 90s FB or a slider coming at you from a 3/4 slot.   The thing is, as I went about educating myself to prove how stupid they were I realized there was a lot of stuff they were right about and a lot of the crap I grew up believing was not as tried and true as I believed.   

FWIW, I don't particularly care for how far teams are going with the saber stuff, but I do appreciate the stuff that can be used to try to project future performance -- I see tremendous value in it.  At the same time I hate station to station baseball and I don't particularly like how SPs are seeing their starts get shorter and shorter.  But, I want to see the team win and if limiting times through the lineup and protecting SPs from being overworked helps them do that, it's hard to argue against it.   I don't like the shift as it's being used these days but when you look at how it's impacted AP -- I can't blame teams for going there.  I hate that teams don't try to run because they are looking to avoid outs -- you'd think there would be more middle ground there and in the case of the Angels with all the plus athletes they have drafted it will be a HUGE let down if they don't try to take the extra base and force defensive miscues.   In that sense, I guess I would have been happiest seeing baseball as it was played in the 60s and the SB was a legit tool.

20 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

the problem is that most of those guys have not only performed below expectations, but WAY below.  It's unfortunate that the rotation fix isn't likely to happen this year even if they do get better, but there is hope.  

They have been downright ugly..  Skaggs hasn't had enough starts to have an opinion one way or another but, other than Pena and more recently Canning it's been a whole lot of ugly.

 

 

[Chuck]

Here's some more for you! 

 

 

[Inside Pitch]

BTW, thanks for linking these Chuck....   

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Here's some more for you! 

 

 

So the Angels face the Cardinals and Dodgers next month...  what happens when they face the Angels' weak pitching? Asking for a friend.

Edited May 13, 2019 by True Grich

[Chuck]

8 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

BTW, thanks for linking these Chuck....   

I'm just finding it fascinating about the abrupt changes to our low strikeout & hard hit rates after we hired some new coaches and implemented a new philosophy from the top down. 

Now, if we can just get White and the pitching coaches to turn our starting pitchers around we're in a good position to make a run at the Wild Card or better. That's a big if, because I know you cannot polish a turd, but hot damn I'm impressed with the positive changes from our hitters so I don't want to focus too much on the negative. 

I think if there's a way for the Angels to dump Cozart and Bour from the roster will improve even more.. I think any two of these guys would be a big improvement over the two in Rengifo, Ward, Walsh, Rojas.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'm just finding it fascinating about the abrupt changes to our low strikeout & hard hit rates after we hired some new coaches and implemented a new philosophy from the top down. 

Now, if we can just get White and the pitching coaches to turn our starting pitchers around we're in a good position to make a run at the Wild Card or better. That's a big if, because I know you cannot polish a turd, but hot damn I'm impressed with the positive changes from our hitters so I don't want to focus too much on the negative. 

I think if there's a way for the Angels to dump Cozart and Bour from the roster will improve even more.. I think any two of these guys would be a big improvement over the two in Rengifo, Ward, Walsh, Rojas.

Cahill has been annoying because it's all about HRs -- Harvey....  Dude always looks like he's pitching scared.  You see the movement and the velocity when he pitches -- I seriously wonder if he's just afraid of breaking down and it's keeping him from letting it all rip.

[PattyD22]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

@True Grich I don’t think anyone here is jumping for joy about this team or anointing then - they’ve been a mixed bag, they’ve played like a mixed bag, their record reflects it, their run differential reflects it. The pitching has been awful, and the offense been strong enough to overcome a lot of that weakness, as evident in the data above and the fact we’ve managed to eek out a near .500 record to date. 

Since that awful first week, we’ve had an above-average offense and that’s been the biggest reason we’ve managed to have a winning record since that time. This data has also been consistent since the season opened and as data was recorded, suggesting this isn’t really fluky. 

But as also mentioned, data doesn’t always mean wins. Luck is still a factor. 

The thing about data is it can always be skewed to bolster one side of a debate.  I'm not saying that's the case here, but it's true.  As has been mentioned in several posts on this thread, pitching is the issue.  Plain and simple.

But another point that is a major issue is the Angels are 4-11 against left handed starters.  That's pretty bad, and yet this seems like it's been an issue for the last several seasons.  I can't figure out why it is, but boy oh boy do the Angels struggle against lefties.