Harper and Machado Contracts/Trout Extension

[arch stanton]

It’s a little different for Trout. As the consensus best player he’ll be under pressure from the union to get the best contract and set the market for those coming behind him. No doubt the Angels will offer that but there’s no reason to do it today 

[Blarg]

It would be great if Trout blows up the union and the press and announces he signed an extension to age 35 that is only $20 million a year because already he can't eat any better with the money he's got. 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

Does anyone think, much like Weaver, that Trout doesn't care about the money and just wants to win and play in a place that he loves?

actually, I think that Trout cares about the money as an indicator that proves he's the best in the game.  Almost like a competitive thing.  He's humble and down to earth, but he still knows how good he is.  

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

OMG I can't believe people are still buying this Weaver storyline when he got an extension deal similar to Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander.

He did not take a dime in discount.

Jesus.

he did.   

[Dtwncbad]

6 hours ago, Blarg said:

It would be great if Trout blows up the union and the press and announces he signed an extension to age 35 that is only $20 million a year because already he can't eat any better with the money he's got. 

No interest in an argument but just curious why you would want to "blow up the union"?

I think it's an equally fair comment that Arte should just "overpay" Trout because he can't eat any better by paying Trout less.

When push comes to shove, I go to the games and watch the games and follow the games because of the players and their skills.  I don't mind the players getting as much money as they can.  I have never thought, "I think I want to go see Arte Moreno's team tonight."

I also dont mind the owners being very financially successful.  But in an environment where they basically have a legal monopoly and they dont share their financials, I think having a very strong union to represent the players is a good thing in my mind.

Anyway, just commenting on you mentioning blowing up the union. . .

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Dochalo said:

he did.   

We disagree.  And that's OK.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

We disagree.  And that's OK.

I've always thought comparing him to Verlander or Felix was off because both of those guys had an additional year of arb.  

Greinke was a good comp and got 6/147 the year Weaver would have been a free agent.  Weaver had outperformed Greinke to that point in their careers.  

The year before, CJ Wilson got a similar contract to Weaver and CJ wasn't nearly as good.  

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

OMG I can't believe people are still buying this Weaver storyline when he got an extension deal similar to Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander.

He did not take a dime in discount.

Jesus.

Maybe because you're forgetting what else happened...   Hernandez and Verlander signed two years prior to Weaver both giving up two years of arbitration and at a time when FA market inflation was still a thing.  

Felix
5 years/$80M (2010-14)

Despite only being three years into the contract he renegotiated that deal into this one 

7 years/$175M (2013-19)

• signed extension with Seattle 2/13/13
• $6M signing bonus

• 13:$19M, 14:$22M, 15:$24M, 16:$25M, 17:$26M, 18:$26M,19:$27M, 20:$1M conditional club option
• club may exercise 2020 option if Hernandez spends more than 130 consecutive days (in one season or from one season overlapping into the next) on disabled list with right elbow surgery or other procedure to repair right elbow injury
• award bonuses: $0.2M for Cy Young. $0.1M for WS MVP. $50,000 each for LCS MVP, Gold Glove, All-Star
• full no-trade protection (earns 10-and-5 rights in July 2015)
• at signing, contract is the largest ever for a pitcher
  
  Verlander similarly  did his deal with two years of arbitration left
  5 years/$80M (2010-14)
  Then reworked it into this 
• 7 years/$180M (2013-19), plus 2020 vesting option
• signed extension with Detroit 3/29/13
• replaced final two years of previous deal
• 13:$20M, 14:$20M, 15:$28M, 16:$28M, 17:$28M, 18:$28M,19:$28M, 20:$22M vesting option
• 2020 option guaranteed with top 5 finish in 2019 Cy Young vote 
• award bonuses, including $0.1M for All-Star selection
• no-trade protection
• acquired by Houston in trade from Detroit 8/31/17 with $60,743,169 remaining on contract
• as part of the trade, Tigers to pay Astros $17,355,191 ($1,355,191 on 10/15/17, $8M on 6/15/18 and $8M on 6/15/19)
• Verlander retains full no-trade protection and agreed to waive 2020 vesting option
• 
  CC Sabathia signed his FA deal the same year Weaver passed on FA for 5/122 -- at that point in his career he was 30 years old and sported an ERA+ of 123.   Weaver's 5/85 came at age 28,  when he was sporting a career ERA+ of 129.   It wasn't the Angels that talked about Weaver cutting the Angels a deal -- it was the industry and the Sabathia contract proved just much of a deal it really was.  If you need another point of comparison, Anibal Sanchez got 5/80 in what would have been Weaver's FA class at the same exact age with a career ERA+ of 111.  I get that Angels fans can be prone to homerism or fanboism if you'd rather -- but this is one of those times where the facts backed the homerism.

Edited March 2, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[Blarg]

Would you stop with the facts, already!

[TroutBaseball]

I think he's got 61 WAR left in his career. The next two years with the most impact. Crunching some numbers he'll get about the same money if he signs an extension now or becomes a free agent in two years.

Read more here: https://www.trout.la/trouts-next-contract/

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Maybe because you're forgetting what else happened...   Hernandez and Verlander signed two years prior to Weaver both giving up two years of arbitration and at a time when FA market inflation was still a thing.  

Felix
5 years/$80M (2010-14)

Despite only being three years into the contract he renegotiated that deal into this one 

7 years/$175M (2013-19)

• signed extension with Seattle 2/13/13
• $6M signing bonus

• 13:$19M, 14:$22M, 15:$24M, 16:$25M, 17:$26M, 18:$26M,19:$27M, 20:$1M conditional club option
• club may exercise 2020 option if Hernandez spends more than 130 consecutive days (in one season or from one season overlapping into the next) on disabled list with right elbow surgery or other procedure to repair right elbow injury
• award bonuses: $0.2M for Cy Young. $0.1M for WS MVP. $50,000 each for LCS MVP, Gold Glove, All-Star
• full no-trade protection (earns 10-and-5 rights in July 2015)
• at signing, contract is the largest ever for a pitcher
  
  Verlander similarly  did his deal with two years of arbitration left
  5 years/$80M (2010-14)
  Then reworked it into this 
• 7 years/$180M (2013-19), plus 2020 vesting option
• signed extension with Detroit 3/29/13
• replaced final two years of previous deal
• 13:$20M, 14:$20M, 15:$28M, 16:$28M, 17:$28M, 18:$28M,19:$28M, 20:$22M vesting option
• 2020 option guaranteed with top 5 finish in 2019 Cy Young vote 
• award bonuses, including $0.1M for All-Star selection
• no-trade protection
• acquired by Houston in trade from Detroit 8/31/17 with $60,743,169 remaining on contract
• as part of the trade, Tigers to pay Astros $17,355,191 ($1,355,191 on 10/15/17, $8M on 6/15/18 and $8M on 6/15/19)
• Verlander retains full no-trade protection and agreed to waive 2020 vesting option
• 
  CC Sabathia signed his FA deal the same year Weaver passed on FA for 5/122 -- at that point in his career he was 30 years old and sported an ERA+ of 123.   Weaver's 5/85 came at age 28,  when he was sporting a career ERA+ of 129.   It wasn't the Angels that talked about Weaver cutting the Angels a deal -- it was the industry and the Sabathia contract proved just much of a deal it really was.  If you need another point of comparison, Anibal Sanchez got 5/80 in what would have been Weaver's FA class at the same exact age with a career ERA+ of 111.  I get that Angels fans can be prone to homerism or fanboism if you'd rather -- but this is one of those times where the facts backed the homerism.

The additional year to free agency absolutely matters.  So do the statistics.

Yes you are right.  But be honest.

Did you think Weaver was at the same level of those other pitchers in terms of projecting to be dominant for a long time going forward?

Felix and Verlander are still in the majors and Weaver is out of the game and absolutely stunk at the end.

He didn't have the stuff to have the same future as those other guys.

There was no discount.  He was probably overpaid if anything.

 

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

The additional year to free agency absolutely matters.  So do the statistics.

Yes you are right.  But be honest.

Did you think Weaver was at the same level of those other pitchers in terms of projecting to be dominant for a long time going forward?

Felix and Verlander are still in the majors and Weaver is out of the game and absolutely stunk at the end.

He didn't have the stuff to have the same future as those other guys.

There was no discount.  He was probably overpaid if anything.

 

you're using what you know now to cloud your judgement of the way things were.  

[Dtwncbad]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

you're using what you know now to cloud your judgement of the way things were.  

I understand why you say that but I can tell you honestly honestly that I never believed Weaver was as projectable.

If you dont believ me there isnt really any way to convince you.

Guys that huck it at 98 can lose 8 mph and still get people out.

Weaver had no margin for error.

But I am going to rest on this.  I dont think it is important to change your mind.  My original reaction was mostly a crabby moment and was me just being reminded that so many people don't see it as I do, not an effort to change anyone's mind.

[Inside Pitch]

44 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

The additional year to free agency absolutely matters.  So do the statistics.

Yes you are right.  But be honest.

Did you think Weaver was at the same level of those other pitchers in terms of projecting to be dominant for a long time going forward?

Felix and Verlander are still in the majors and Weaver is out of the game and absolutely stunk at the end.

He didn't have the stuff to have the same future as those other guys.

There was no discount.  He was probably overpaid if anything.

So, Im right but you're doubling down that there was no discount -- okie doke.

At THAT time???   He absolutely was -- to be fair I always believed Verlander was a notch above the other two but that's a personal preference thing.   But performance wise he held his own.  Weaver always carried the FIP knock but he had proven to be an FIP outlier much like Ichiro had proven to be a guy that consistently overperformed all the BABIP calculations that predicted impending doom.  Pundits used that against him but the normalized performance was not par if just slightly behind those two -- Mostly Verlander.  But whatever, let's say he wasn't in their league, that he was in a second tier just behind them...    Through the same point of his career he was a better pitcher than CC Sabathia who got 122 Mil.   He was also a world better than Anibal Sanchez who for all intents and purposes got the same deal from the Tigers...    So, even if you believed he was 80% of what those others were -- he didn't sign for 80% of what they did.  Compare them to the guys BEHIND Felix and Verlander and tell me what you get?

BTW -- You should take a closer look at Felix -- his career has cratered in a much more significant way than Weaver's did.  Again, sticking to facts...  Weaver's ERA+ at the time he signed his deal -- 129.   Felix -- 127, Hernandez pitched in Seattle and as such got even more help from his home park (so better raw ERA), but the gap between them was closer than most people realized.   And while he is still a MLB pitcher, he's not been King Felix in a long time, his decline has been worse than Weaver's.  Felix has posted an ERA of 4.62 since turning 30 (395 innings), good for an ERA+ of 88.   Weaver age 30 til done (747 innings), posted a combined ERA of 4.25 -- also good for an ERA+ of 88. 

Felix's raw ERA last year was 5.55 -- looking at those numbers -- are you really going to argue that Felix is looking like a good bet to have been better, deeper into their careers?   

When it's all said and done -- people in MLB believed Weaver gave the Angels a deal.  No amount of revisionist history is going to change that reality.

Edited March 2, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[Dtwncbad]

Felix cratered in a more significant way than Weaver?

One is still pitching every fifth day and the other is making quesadillas and thinking about taking up gardening.

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Felix cratered in a more significant way than Weaver?

One is still pitching every fifth day and the other is making quesadillas and thinking about taking up gardening.

one is four years younger and still being paid.  

[Docwaukee]

33 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I understand why you say that but I can tell you honestly honestly that I never believed Weaver was as projectable.

If you dont believ me there isnt really any way to convince you.

Guys that huck it at 98 can lose 8 mph and still get people out.

Weaver had no margin for error.

But I am going to rest on this.  I dont think it is important to change your mind.  My original reaction was mostly a crabby moment and was me just being reminded that so many people don't see it as I do, not an effort to change anyone's mind.

if you believe that, then so be it.  If you believed that at the time then you are impressive.  Very few others felt the way you do/did.  

It's not about changing my mind.  He got a below market deal based on his performance vs. the performance of others.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Rosenthal: Trout’s value? Far more than Harper or Machado; Nats pondering next move; A’s not giving up on Murray

 

By Ken Rosenthal 3h ago 26

In recent weeks, the Los Angeles Angels at least considered offering Mike Trout a 10-year, $350 million extension, though it is unclear whether they followed through with an actual proposal, according to sources with knowledge of the club’s thinking.

A deal of that size would be the biggest in the history of North American sports and give Trout the highest average annual value ever for a baseball player.

And still, it would not be nearly enough....

https://theathletic.com/847082/2019/03/02/rosenthal-trouts-value-far-more-than-harper-or-machado-nats-pondering-next-move-as-not-giving-up-on-murray/

Edited March 2, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

if you believe that, then so be it.  If you believed that at the time then you are impressive.  Very few others felt the way you do/did.  

It's not about changing my mind.  He got a below market deal based on his performance vs. the performance of others.  

I dont think recognizing less margin of error from obvious velocity differences is "impressive". . .

I guarantee anyone who works for a team in trying to value a possible contract is paying attention to this kind of stuff, don't you think?

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I dont think recognizing less margin of error from obvious velocity differences is "impressive". . .

I guarantee anyone who works for a team in trying to value a possible contract is paying attention to this kind of stuff, don't you think?

of course they do.  It's not what made Weaver special at the time.  There was no indication that his velo was going to crater at age 31/32.  

you can believe whatever you want.  At the time, he admitted to taking a discount.  The Angels acknowledged it.  His agent acknowledged it.   What's so hard to understand? 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Felix cratered in a more significant way than Weaver?

One is still pitching every fifth day and the other is making quesadillas and thinking about taking up gardening.

Yes, he has..... the numbers say as much.  

Felix is still starting for the same exact reason Albert Pujols is still getting at bats.... Because he is owed a ton of money.  

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yes, he has..... the numbers say as much.  

Felix is still starting for the same exact reason Albert Pujols is still getting at bats.... Because he is owed a ton of money.  

 

But maybe this is the year he bounces back!

[Inside Pitch]

On 3/1/2019 at 11:58 AM, Inside Pitch said:

Mike Trout is a unicorn -- he doesn't have the makeup questions hanging over him that Machado has, he hasn't had the performance fluctuations or signs of decline that Harper has.   While I think you are right in saying that FA has become a hostile environment I think Trout may be the outlier.   All that being said -- the current CBA will still be in effect, he will be 29 years old and if he shows any slippage or injury issues the next two years it may impact his market.   The Angels have the least to lose in the sense that they already got a shit ton of plus value out of his "cheaper" years.  

The Angels could be really creative in how they go about this, they can go long, front load the contract and add several throwaway years at the back end to drive the AAV down.    If you structure a deal where Mike Trout is slated to make chump change in the final couple of seasons then does it matter if he goes AP after age 35?.   For instance  go 12/420 -- an AAV of 35   Redo the final two years of his current deal (essentially a 10 year extension).  Pay him 40 mil per the first 7 years of the contract -- that takes him through his age age 33 season having earned the 280 mil -- more than AP got, 20 mil less than Manny will get.  That leaves 140 mil to be paid out over the final 5 years -- if you go 35x3 then you have Mike Trout having earned 385 mil through his age 36 season with two years and 35 mil left to pay out in his age 37 and 38 seasons.    You can throw in option years, opt outs -- whatever...  

If he's willing to walk away from a deal like that then it likely means his decision isn't entirely about baseball, winning or money...

I AGREE!