Rosenthal: Angels looking to shed payroll

[Docwaukee]

16 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Help me understand.  I am being sincere.  It seems to me that many people have basically argued that 2019 is a punt year (and I will argue againstvthat because I dont think there us any reason to punt 2019).  Wasn't one huge point in the like 5 pages of Arenado vs. Machado was that there is no point in pursuing Machado for 2019 when Arenado' s free agency was better timing for some "plan" with other pieces?

My question isn't about Machado it is sincerely about my perception that some Angel fans view 2019 as not worthy of being "aggressive" in trying to win.

What am I getting wrong?

I don't mind being wrong.  I just want to know what I am missing.

I'll take this one because I can offer my view point which is where I think Flop's misconceptions are stemming from.  

I want to win in 2019.  I want to win in 2020.  I even proposed that we expand payroll in each of those years to make that happen.  

The problem is that isn't going to happen.  Arte's payroll is restricted to an increase of 30m for 2019 according to fletch.  

So then I look at this team and try to take an honest look at the current roster and determine a couple of things.  1.  Can we be competitive in 2019?  2.  Can that level of competitiveness include us legitimately vying for a division title?  The answer to both is yes, but what would either of these entail? 

If we spend 30mil, we can be competitive with some creative moves, but a decent amount still needs to go right.  

To actually compete for a division title, it would entail trading away most of our top prospects to get players that are likely under control for two years or less.  

So my preference is for option 1.  Why?  If we try the second option, Houston is so good right now we could completely waste all of our prospect capital and be left with nothing.  AND Because as much as I'd like to see us win in the next two years, the best way to build a sustainable winner is to fill the major league roster with as many controlled, cheap players of avg to star level talent that were at a minimum of cost to acquire.  I'll repeat - at a minimum of cost to acquire ie via the draft and intl free agents.   If you acquire those types of players via trades, you have actually decreased your prospect currency.  

So if you really want to win for the next two years, you've got to trade away all of your prospects based on the current payroll allowed.  And literally, I mean all of them.  To truly compete for the division title we'd need deGrom, Realmuto and to spend 30m on free agents to have a legit shot.  

I don't want to punt the next two years, so spend the 30m to improve the team but hang on to your prospects withing reason.  If you need to make a small trade or two then fine, but the top 10 or so should stay intact.  

I think Trout will stay and I am working under that assumption.  You may choose not to.  By the time his extension kicks in he'll be 29.  Still in his prime.  And the farm system will then be ready to start supplementing the major league club with cheap talent.  This will accomplish a few things.  #1, I assume that Trout has a smart agent and advisers.  If the team went all in and has almost no talent left to supple the team for years 2021-2030, why would he stay.  #2, if they maintain that prospect base for his extension, he'll be more likely to stay.  #3, even though Trout might start to show his age, that base of cheap talent will provide a lot more flexibility for the team to add additional talent around him when the holes are fewer.  Which is when you make the move for a Chris Sale and/or JD Martinez.

If you want to commit to winning the division and not just hoping for a wild card, you either go all in now, or you wait a couple of years.  You can't do both.  What you can do now though, is make some savvy moves with your 30m and hope for the best.  

2021 was always a complete guess.  What I am anticipating is having by that time is an above avg RFer, an avg 2bman,  an avg 3b or 1b (one or the other, not both), two spots in the rotation (one mid to upper and one mid to back), and a pen filled with a bunch of arms that can reach the upper nineties all occupied by players who are either at league min or in early arb to complement Trout, Simmons, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, and Upton.  By that time you'll have another wave of prospects in the upper minors and your payroll will be very manageable so you can go out and sign that 3bman and #1 starter or trade for that elite C.  Maybe you move a little early on any of those depending on the player you can get.  

We had zero positions over the last 3 years where a farm product was able to take that spot.  You can't open a window for winning like that.  Playing for 1 or 2 years is way too risky.  Too much can go wrong.   A couple of key injuries can derail you.  Whereas if you play for a 5-6 year window, you've got more leeway.  

Does that mean I want to play for 2021 or 2022?  Hell no.  I'm in favor of adding 2-3 starters and possibly Donaldson for 2019.  A risky move that could pay dividends if it works or fall completely flat.  Just don't sacrifice the future ie the farm system to create a 1-2 year window.  

BTW, if we add a couple of nice players this year for a couple years and get Ohtani back on the mound next year as well as sign Richards to a 1+1, we could have a very formidable rotation in 2020.  Houston will lose Cole and Verlander.  We could have Ohtani, Skaggs, Richards, Happ, Heaney, Barria, Canning and Suarez as well as a few others as strong depth pieces.  

I'll also mention that teams who are patient and let their prospects develop are the ones that end up being successful.  There isn't much precedent for teams that fill all of their spots with free agents or trades of prospects for high end players.  The strong core of home grown players is more likely to result in a winner.  Other teams have done it.  We've done it.  

BTW, regardless of what we want, Eppler is going to order the meal and Arte is going to pay the check.  You can do one of two things.  Eat or starve.  I'm gonna enjoy the meal even if there are other menu items I'd have picked instead.    

[jessecrall]

As attractive as Realmuto is, I'm leaning in @Dochalo's camp here more and more by the day.

[Tank]

On 11/12/2018 at 8:39 PM, Stradling said:

 

maybe it was all the lasagna in the clubhouse after each game.

hopefully Ausmus is a PB&J kinda guy.

i hope by slipping in this joke now during november beats the statute of limitation on scioscia jokes.

[ukyah]

bs on the team losing money. no owner in the history of sports has ever lost money. do what you like arte, but i haven't been to a game in anaheim since 2014.

[floplag]

55 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'll take this one because I can offer my view point which is where I think Flop's misconceptions are stemming from.  

I want to win in 2019.  I want to win in 2020.  I even proposed that we expand payroll in each of those years to make that happen.  

The problem is that isn't going to happen.  Arte's payroll is restricted to an increase of 30m for 2019 according to fletch.  

So then I look at this team and try to take an honest look at the current roster and determine a couple of things.  1.  Can we be competitive in 2019?  2.  Can that level of competitiveness include us legitimately vying for a division title?  The answer to both is yes, but what would either of these entail? 

If we spend 30mil, we can be competitive with some creative moves, but a decent amount still needs to go right.  

To actually compete for a division title, it would entail trading away most of our top prospects to get players that are likely under control for two years or less.  

So my preference is for option 1.  Why?  If we try the second option, Houston is so good right now we could completely waste all of our prospect capital and be left with nothing.  AND Because as much as I'd like to see us win in the next two years, the best way to build a sustainable winner is to fill the major league roster with as many controlled, cheap players of avg to star level talent that were at a minimum of cost to acquire.  I'll repeat - at a minimum of cost to acquire ie via the draft and intl free agents.   If you acquire those types of players via trades, you have actually decreased your prospect currency.  

So if you really want to win for the next two years, you've got to trade away all of your prospects based on the current payroll allowed.  And literally, I mean all of them.  To truly compete for the division title we'd need deGrom, Realmuto and to spend 30m on free agents to have a legit shot.  

I don't want to punt the next two years, so spend the 30m to improve the team but hang on to your prospects withing reason.  If you need to make a small trade or two then fine, but the top 10 or so should stay intact.  

I think Trout will stay and I am working under that assumption.  You may choose not to.  By the time his extension kicks in he'll be 29.  Still in his prime.  And the farm system will then be ready to start supplementing the major league club with cheap talent.  This will accomplish a few things.  #1, I assume that Trout has a smart agent and advisers.  If the team went all in and has almost no talent left to supple the team for years 2021-2030, why would he stay.  #2, if they maintain that prospect base for his extension, he'll be more likely to stay.  #3, even though Trout might start to show his age, that base of cheap talent will provide a lot more flexibility for the team to add additional talent around him when the holes are fewer.  Which is when you make the move for a Chris Sale and/or JD Martinez.

If you want to commit to winning the division and not just hoping for a wild card, you either go all in now, or you wait a couple of years.  You can't do both.  What you can do now though, is make some savvy moves with your 30m and hope for the best.  

2021 was always a complete guess.  What I am anticipating is having by that time is an above avg RFer, an avg 2bman,  an avg 3b or 1b (one or the other, not both), two spots in the rotation (one mid to upper and one mid to back), and a pen filled with a bunch of arms that can reach the upper nineties all occupied by players who are either at league min or in early arb to complement Trout, Simmons, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, and Upton.  By that time you'll have another wave of prospects in the upper minors and your payroll will be very manageable so you can go out and sign that 3bman and #1 starter or trade for that elite C.  Maybe you move a little early on any of those depending on the player you can get.  

We had zero positions over the last 3 years where a farm product was able to take that spot.  You can't open a window for winning like that.  Playing for 1 or 2 years is way too risky.  Too much can go wrong.   A couple of key injuries can derail you.  Whereas if you play for a 5-6 year window, you've got more leeway.  

Does that mean I want to play for 2021 or 2022?  Hell no.  I'm in favor of adding 2-3 starters and possibly Donaldson for 2019.  A risky move that could pay dividends if it works or fall completely flat.  Just don't sacrifice the future ie the farm system to create a 1-2 year window.  

BTW, if we add a couple of nice players this year for a couple years and get Ohtani back on the mound next year as well as sign Richards to a 1+1, we could have a very formidable rotation in 2020.  Houston will lose Cole and Verlander.  We could have Ohtani, Skaggs, Richards, Happ, Heaney, Barria, Canning and Suarez as well as a few others as strong depth pieces.  

I'll also mention that teams who are patient and let their prospects develop are the ones that end up being successful.  There isn't much precedent for teams that fill all of their spots with free agents or trades of prospects for high end players.  The strong core of home grown players is more likely to result in a winner.  Other teams have done it.  We've done it.  

BTW, regardless of what we want, Eppler is going to order the meal and Arte is going to pay the check.  You can do one of two things.  Eat or starve.  I'm gonna enjoy the meal even if there are other menu items I'd have picked instead.    

What misconceptions?  The only place ive ever difference in any of that is the willingness to perhaps make one trade, on the assumption we could perhaps do it without losing our most important chip.  My plan was to hope they would spend more on the short term. 

Yes i see the farm in a lesser degree than you do, but thats not based on my opinion, its base on their projections by the assumed experts at fangraphs and other outlets.  We dont have that many guys that arent replaceable down there in my opinion based on that.  Nor do we have the volume/depth of them other better farms have.  Jones in particular is to me a sell high guy due to our organizational depth at the position but thats irrelevant to this. 

The 21 target makes sense based on the plan you listed above.  I recall asking at one point when people thought we would be competitive, that was the answer i got.  Our best kids wont be here till then, or at least arent projected to aside form maybe mid 20, so that is reasonable.  Did i like it, no, but i got it.

Now you are 100% right, the budget is Arte's call, and Epp will do what he can within that.  I understand the financials.  I think we all know that in todays market 30M isnt going to get it done, it doesnt buy enough to fill the holes.  By setting that number and making it clear hes looking within, meaning no likely significant trades, hes made a decision to not be competitive in 19.  We all realize that i think, or should.   He put the budget ahead of all other considerations.  That number is half what he could spend without the luxury tax coming into the conversation.  Thats his prerogative of course, but its also ours as fans to not like it. 

What i do not understand is why Arte appears unwilling to make short term moves, mostly in terms of added budget, that might make us competitive both now, and later.  To invest in a plan that helps us keep Trout and Simmons and bridge the gap.  If he goes dumpster diving, hes going to take a PR hit.  I do not think most fans will understand his lack of willingness to invest in perhaps the best and deepest FA class weve seen in a very long time.  If that leads to Trout leaving, he would have only himself to blame for that nightmare.  

Im tired of the hostility, im going to step away from all that, its not worth it.  Ive had a shit couple of days and i let it get the better of me.  Were all fans of this team, we all want it to win, some just appear to be a little more patient than others... its never been my strong suit. 
 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

What misconceptions?  The only place ive ever difference in any of that is the willingness to perhaps make one trade, on the assumption we could perhaps do it without losing our most important chip.  My plan was to hope they would spend more on the short term. 

Yes i see the farm in a lesser degree than you do, but thats not based on my opinion, its base on their projections by the assumed experts at fangraphs and other outlets.  We dont have that many guys that arent replaceable down there in my opinion based on that.  Nor do we have the volume/depth of them other better farms have.  Jones in particular is to me a sell high guy due to our organizational depth at the position but thats irrelevant to this. 

The 21 target makes sense based on the plan you listed above.  I recall asking at one point when people thought we would be competitive, that was the answer i got.  Our best kids wont be here till then, or at least arent projected to aside form maybe mid 20, so that is reasonable.  Did i like it, no, but i got it.

Now you are 100% right, the budget is Arte's call, and Epp will do what he can within that.  I understand the financials.  I think we all know that in todays market 30M isnt going to get it done, it doesnt buy enough to fill the holes.  By setting that number and making it clear hes looking within, meaning no likely significant trades, hes made a decision to not be competitive in 19.  We all realize that i think, or should.   He put the budget ahead of all other considerations.  That number is half what he could spend without the luxury tax coming into the conversation.  Thats his prerogative of course, but its also ours as fans to not like it. 

What i do not understand is why Arte appears unwilling to make short term moves, mostly in terms of added budget, that might make us competitive both now, and later.  To invest in a plan that helps us keep Trout and Simmons and bridge the gap.  If he goes dumpster diving, hes going to take a PR hit.  I do not think most fans will understand his lack of willingness to invest in perhaps the best and deepest FA class weve seen in a very long time.  If that leads to Trout leaving, he would have only himself to blame for that nightmare.  

Im tired of the hostility, im going to step away from all that, its not worth it.  Ive had a shit couple of days and i let it get the better of me.  Were all fans of this team, we all want it to win, some just appear to be a little more patient than others... its never been my strong suit. 
 

by misconceptions, I didn't want to leave the impression that I though 2021 was some magical year where everyone in the Angel org suddenly yelled 'ok NOW!'.  

I wouldn't rely too much on 3rd party assessments of our farm system.  I think as long as we all realize that it's good, not great and has a fair about of potential/upside.  In 1-2 years I think it will be even better.  The fact that we don't have the depth, though, only brings home my point which is that there really isn't anyone to sell high on right now.  Even Jones, as you mentioned might be redundant, but he's still got a ton of upside that could easily be realized in 2019 so I don't see him as a sell high sort at all.  Pretty much anyone we move right now we'd be selling low on except maybe Ward or Thaiss.  

It's been so long since we've had a prospect become a legit major leaguer, I think most people have been conditioned to assume they're all overrated.  As an example, Barria was barely in the top 10 on most outside lists yet #6 per the AW rankings.  Sickels had him at #6 as well.  

Anyway, it doesn't really matter.  My point is that we've got a bunch of guys who are actually legit right now and set to start making contributions soon whether people want to believe that or not.  You don't have to have the best farm for it to be impactful at the major league level when you have a good payroll to back it up.  

I am totally on board with your frustration about Arte's unwillingness to expand payroll to supplement the team.  But looking at it objectively, maybe Arte's being told that adding an additional $20mil to payroll isn't likely to get the job done.  While we think it might (and I do), maybe he considers it to be too much of a risk when he has those who are more objective looking at the roster and it's holes.  

Where I think you and I disagree is that winning in 2019 is going to have any impact on whether Trout signs an extension.  Or Simmons for that matter.  In fact, I feel like if we preserve the players that will be more helpful 2-3 years from now, it will only strengthen the case for those guys to stay.  If they leave because they're mad at Arte for not making more of a financial effort over the next two years, then either the team has done a poor job of communicating it's plan or Mike has gotten some bad advice.  

If Simmons and Trout intend to leave, then we should just trade them at some point and if done properly, it might lengthen our process to becoming a winner by a chunk but it's certainly not a death sentence to the org.  It would suck from a fan standpoint though as my own personal vision for us winning a title includes watching Trout, Upton and Adell hug it out after Arrenado throws out Corey Seager to end game 6 of the world series.  

[floplag]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

by misconceptions, I didn't want to leave the impression that I though 2021 was some magical year where everyone in the Angel org suddenly yelled 'ok NOW!'.  

I wouldn't rely too much on 3rd party assessments of our farm system.  I think as long as we all realize that it's good, not great and has a fair about of potential/upside.  In 1-2 years I think it will be even better.  The fact that we don't have the depth, though, only brings home my point which is that there really isn't anyone to sell high on right now.  Even Jones, as you mentioned might be redundant, but he's still got a ton of upside that could easily be realized in 2019 so I don't see him as a sell high sort at all.  Pretty much anyone we move right now we'd be selling low on except maybe Ward or Thaiss.  

It's been so long since we've had a prospect become a legit major leaguer, I think most people have been conditioned to assume they're all overrated.  As an example, Barria was barely in the top 10 on most outside lists yet #6 per the AW rankings.  Sickels had him at #6 as well.  

Anyway, it doesn't really matter.  My point is that we've got a bunch of guys who are actually legit right now and set to start making contributions soon whether people want to believe that or not.  You don't have to have the best farm for it to be impactful at the major league level when you have a good payroll to back it up.  

I am totally on board with your frustration about Arte's unwillingness to expand payroll to supplement the team.  But looking at it objectively, maybe Arte's being told that adding an additional $20mil to payroll isn't likely to get the job done.  While we think it might (and I do), maybe he considers it to be too much of a risk when he has those who are more objective looking at the roster and it's holes.  

Where I think you and I disagree is that winning in 2019 is going to have any impact on whether Trout signs an extension.  Or Simmons for that matter.  In fact, I feel like if we preserve the players that will be more helpful 2-3 years from now, it will only strengthen the case for those guys to stay.  If they leave because they're mad at Arte for not making more of a financial effort over the next two years, then either the team has done a poor job of communicating it's plan or Mike has gotten some bad advice.  

If Simmons and Trout intend to leave, then we should just trade them at some point and if done properly, it might lengthen our process to becoming a winner by a chunk but it's certainly not a death sentence to the org.  It would suck from a fan standpoint though as my own personal vision for us winning a title includes watching Trout, Upton and Adell hug it out after Arrenado throws out Corey Seager to end game 6 of the world series.  

I am no expert on assessing prospects, so yes i defer to those sources that are.  However your general view i do agree with in that we have some good, but not great, options coming up.  Even if we assume all of them become what we hope, it will not be enough, were going to have to supplement with FA at some point either way.  Jones just had an AFL all star season, i dont think he would be a low, but no matter.

I 100% do think 19 and into 20 will affect Trout though, hes made it clear he wants to win, he wants to play meaningful baseball.  I assume perhaps Simmons  has a similar view as well.  Especially in Trouts case though i dont think money alone makes that call, hes going to get paid regardless.  I truly believe his decision will be based on how the org moves forward in terms of winning and having a chance to win titles.  Hes already given us a few mulligans, i really think its put up or shut up time in that regard.  If i were him, thats how i would feel.   I absolutely would rather trade him than lose him for nothing, i dont think thats crazy, but i also dont want to do that.  I know you and Strad are convinced he stays, i wish i had your confidence.  Frankly if were not willing to do the other things necessary to compete, i wonder why that even makes sense to us as an organization, but thats perhaps another discussion.

Im just horribly bothered by the losing money comments, not even going to try to lie about that.  I dont buy it, i dont see how its possible.  However, If thats true then we are in deep trouble.  We have realistically 1 bad contract right now, Albert.    He is likely the difference between making and losing assuming its true.  So he will drop off at some point and what, they dont re-spend that money?  If around 175-180 (arbitrary based on what we spent and assuming it was a loss) is our break even, how do we get into that WS discussion?  The only way that happens is to trade everyone of value to stockpile young talent and wait it out to play the Hou/ChiC plan of being terrible long enough to get good.   Playing 500 ball is actually counter productive to that plan. 

I really do hope im wrong about some of this, sincerely, im just calling it how i see it.  I just want this team to win, we all do im sure as fans.  I just dont see a path to that that doesnt involve either spending more than they want, or going full rebuild.  I love the debate, its good that we see it different otherwise what would there be to discuss on these forums, lol    Time will tell and i promise no "i told you so"s if im right

[Stradling]

Arte could draw a salary of say $20-50 million a year as team owner to show they aren’t profitable.  Of course they are making money, but it isn’t the cash cow people might think until they sell the team.   Also it could simply be perspective.  He’s a billionaire so if he makes a few million in profit it would be like you making $100k and getting a couple dollar an hour raise.  

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, floplag said:

I am no expert on assessing prospects, so yes i defer to those sources that are.  However your general view i do agree with in that we have some good, but not great, options coming up.  Even if we assume all of them become what we hope, it will not be enough, were going to have to supplement with FA at some point either way.  Jones just had an AFL all star season, i dont think he would be a low, but no matter.

I 100% do think 19 and into 20 will affect Trout though, hes made it clear he wants to win, he wants to play meaningful baseball.  I assume perhaps Simmons  has a similar view as well.  Especially in Trouts case though i dont think money alone makes that call, hes going to get paid regardless.  I truly believe his decision will be based on how the org moves forward in terms of winning and having a chance to win titles.  Hes already given us a few mulligans, i really think its put up or shut up time in that regard.  If i were him, thats how i would feel.   I absolutely would rather trade him than lose him for nothing, i dont think thats crazy, but i also dont want to do that.  I know you and Strad are convinced he stays, i wish i had your confidence.  Frankly if were not willing to do the other things necessary to compete, i wonder why that even makes sense to us as an organization, but thats perhaps another discussion.

Im just horribly bothered by the losing money comments, not even going to try to lie about that.  I dont buy it, i dont see how its possible.  However, If thats true then we are in deep trouble.  We have realistically 1 bad contract right now, Albert.    He is likely the difference between making and losing assuming its true.  So he will drop off at some point and what, they dont re-spend that money?  If around 175-180 (arbitrary based on what we spent and assuming it was a loss) is our break even, how do we get into that WS discussion?  The only way that happens is to trade everyone of value to stockpile young talent and wait it out to play the Hou/ChiC plan of being terrible long enough to get good.   Playing 500 ball is actually counter productive to that plan. 

I really do hope im wrong about some of this, sincerely, im just calling it how i see it.  I just want this team to win, we all do im sure as fans.  I just dont see a path to that that doesnt involve either spending more than they want, or going full rebuild.  I love the debate, its good that we see it different otherwise what would there be to discuss on these forums, lol    Time will tell and i promise no "i told you so"s if im right

The highlighted part in your first paragraph isn't actually my view.  I think we have a good, not great farm system overall and it will continue to get better, but we've got a ton of very high upside players in the low minors that could absolutely take off and become great players.  A couple of those guys will be studs in addition to Adell ie, I think we're going to get a star or two.  There's also going to be a couple good or avg as well.  Which is still very important.  I think I trust the farm system more than most.  Maybe to a fault, but we'll see.  I just want to make clear that the rankings you are following don't take into account the star potential of guys in the lower minors.  That won't be realized for a couple years.  

Your second paragraph I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.  If they tell him and his representation that the team is committed to building a winner during his extension, then Mike has to decide to trust them or not.  I think he will.  

In the third paragraph, I generally agree.  While I appreciate Arte spending what he does, his conveyance to the fans of the teams financial situation has been off putting in my opinion.  It may not bother others, but the way he's phrased stuff and he's timed things have been less than optimal.  

[Tyler]

Trade Calhoun to the Reds for Lorenzen.

[ettin]

There sure is  some doom and gloom around here lately. I see some paths to success for Eppler this off-season but some events will have to break his way for some of those roads to materialize. If he is forced to hit the free agent market too much there will be issues.

[Inside Pitch]

11 hours ago, floplag said:

What misconceptions?  The only place ive ever difference in any of that is the willingness to perhaps make one trade, on the assumption we could perhaps do it without losing our most important chip.  My plan was to hope they would spend more on the short term. 
 

The one where you continuously repeat that nobody wants to do anything and everyone is willing to wait until 2021.   Absolutely NOBODY has said that.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

The highlighted part in your first paragraph isn't actually my view.  I think we have a good, not great farm system overall and it will continue to get better, but we've got a ton of very high upside players in the low minors that could absolutely take off and become great players.  A couple of those guys will be studs in addition to Adell ie, I think we're going to get a star or two.  There's also going to be a couple good or avg as well.  Which is still very important.  I think I trust the farm system more than most.  Maybe to a fault, but we'll see.  I just want to make clear that the rankings you are following don't take into account the star potential of guys in the lower minors.  That won't be realized for a couple years.  

Your second paragraph I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.  If they tell him and his representation that the team is committed to building a winner during his extension, then Mike has to decide to trust them or not.  I think he will.  

In the third paragraph, I generally agree.  While I appreciate Arte spending what he does, his conveyance to the fans of the teams financial situation has been off putting in my opinion.  It may not bother others, but the way he's phrased stuff and he's timed things have been less than optimal.  

OK, regarding prospects, help me understand, why do you think these guys will take off and be better when others dont appear to, i guess thats where we differ.  I havent seen them play, all i can base it on is what i read from those who get paid to do this. 
Perhaps i am a bit snakebit in regard to our idea of  prospects, most of them, especially position players, dont seem to work out to well.  Its difficult to share your optimism in the face of our history in that regard in the last decade or so.|
You have a very optimistic view of them, im more middle of the road.  You may well be right, then again they could also be worse, only time will tell. 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

The one where you continuously repeat that nobody wants to do anything and everyone is willing to wait until 2021.   Absolutely NOBODY has said that.

im just not arguing this further, not saying the words doesn't change the intent.  Believe what you will.   

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, floplag said:

im just not arguing this further, not saying the words doesn't change the intent.  Believe what you will.   

Yeah -- you've said this about 5 different times only to come back and repeat the same stupid line about nobody wanting to do anything.  If you're not willing to stick to what's actually been said then by all means do the board a favor and actually stop arguing what hasn't been said.   It's laughable that you actually think you know people's intent rather than actually believing what they say ..   

Edited November 14, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

OK, regarding prospects, help me understand, why do you think these guys will take off and be better when others dont appear to, i guess thats where we differ.  I havent seen them play, all i can base it on is what i read from those who get paid to do this. 
Perhaps i am a bit snakebit in regard to our idea of  prospects, most of them, especially position players, dont seem to work out to well.  Its difficult to share your optimism in the face of our history in that regard in the last decade or so.|
You have a very optimistic view of them, im more middle of the road.  You may well be right, then again they could also be worse, only time will tell. 

How about the reality that there is no prospect site that is ever 100% right.  Most people understand that different sites have different things they value..  Some are analytically driven, others put a greater emphasis on tools and upside, the one common denominator being that pretty much everyone who tracks farm systems believes that having more prospects means you have a better chance of having one of them bust out and become a star.   It's a game of attrition.   Prospect rankings are mostly fluff -- it's great that the Angels farm is viewed as an upper tier system by BBA and near that by FG but when it's all said and done it's just noise.   All it takes is for ONE guy in any of the systems ranked below the Padres to bust out as a MLB player and that team will own all the bragging rights. 

[floplag]

35 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yeah -- you've said this about 5 different times only to come back and repeat the same stupid line about nobody wanting to do anything.  If you're not willing to stick to what's actually been said then by all means do the board a favor and actually stop arguing what hasn't been said.   It's laughable that you actually think you know people's intent rather than actually believing what they say ..   

You can insult me all you want, but when the cumulative plan is wait, be patient, let the kids develop, the intent is obvious.  For the record im not talking about smaller deals im talking about contending when i say that, i would have thought that was obvious?

[floplag]

34 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

How about the reality that there is no prospect site that is ever 100% right.  Most people understand that different sites have different things they value..  Some are analytically driven, others put a greater emphasis on tools and upside, the one common denominator being that pretty much everyone who tracks farm systems believes that having more prospects means you have a better chance of having one of them bust out and become a star.   It's a game of attrition.   Prospect rankings are mostly fluff -- it's great that the Angels farm is viewed as an upper tier system by BBA and near that by FG but when it's all said and done it's just noise.   All it takes is for ONE guy in any of the systems ranked below the Padres to bust out as a MLB player and that team will own all the bragging rights. 

How often does that happen that someone blows away those projections?  Honestly?  Sure it happens but whats more likely that they break out and beat all projections or that they dont?  Or that the opposite happens and they under-perform at the ML level.   Plus your comment on having more prospects is equally telling as we have fewer on those lists.

There are reasons why these kids are drafted where they are and why the evaluates rate them as they do, but you are right in that its never a guarantee from any source, precisely part of the reason why i dont see them as the gold others do.  

Im sorry that my not being as high on the farm offends you somehow, but the reality is were both guessing.  You assume they will be awesome best case scenario, i see them as more likely average.  That doesnt mean bad by the way just not above average or stars.  We wont know either way for a few years regardless... right around 21 coincidentally enough .   

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

You can insult me all you want, but when the cumulative plan is wait, be patient, let the kids develop, the intent is obvious.  For the record im not talking about smaller deals im talking about contending when i say that, i would have thought that was obvious?

You're insulting everyone on this board when you ignore what they are saying and misrepresent their positions because "you know their intent".   Get over yourself..   People are telling you what they think/want -- stop pretending they are saying something else.  It's ridiculous.

I've not bothered responding to anything you've said regarding the team itself -- history has shown you are incapable of dealing with a difference of opinion and I'm not about to waste my time engaging you in those types of discussions.   Now spare me the "stop insulting me" horseshit, because it hasn't happened.

Also, I thought you were done?  

[floplag]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

You're insulting everyone on this board when you ignore what they are saying and misrepresent their positions because "you know their intent".   Get over yourself..   People are telling you what they think/want -- stop pretending they are saying something else.  It's ridiculous.

I've not bothered responding to anything you've said regarding the team itself -- history has shown you are incapable of dealing with a difference of opinion and I'm not about to waste my time engaging you in those types of discussions.   Now spare me the "stop insulting me" horseshit, because it hasn't happened.

Also, I thought you were done?  

so sexy when youre angry, lol  ok tough guy... ill let you have your last word.  have a peachy day.  

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, floplag said:

How often does that happen that someone blows away those projections?  Honestly?  Sure it happens but whats more likely that they break out and beat all projections or that they dont?  Or that the opposite happens and they under-perform at the ML level.   Plus your comment on having more prospects is equally telling as we have fewer on those lists.

At least once every year.   Doesn't always mean guys are superstars but they far exceed what's expected of them.    Would you consider someone that wasn't drafted and never made a top 20 for his own team that becomes a solid everyday regular to have exceeded projections?   Do you really need for me to list all the guys that fit that profile or are you so tunnel visioned you think that only applies to Mike Trout type situations?   You really shouldn't ask questions where the answer will destroy your position.

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

There are reasons why these kids are drafted where they are and why the evaluates rate them as they do, but you are right in that its never a guarantee from any source, precisely part of the reason why i dont see them as the gold others do.    

And people have told you they would be willing to move guys.  They have also told you the system while improved isn't ready to absorb a lot of hits to the top end.  Others have told you that in the case of many of our prospects they have yet to have the breakout season expected of them, but they are showing signs of it.    You know what guarantees a team doesn't see the fruit of those labors?  Trading them away.   Now, before you write another book about how you havent said trade them all -- we get it.   Doesn't change the reality that the team isn't there yet.

7 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im sorry that my not being as high on the farm offends you somehow, but the reality is were both guessing.  You assume they will be awesome best case scenario, i see them as more likely average.  That doesnt mean bad by the way just not above average or stars.  We wont know either way for a few years regardless... right around 21 coincidentally enough .   

Again with the self aggrandizing rhetoric.  Your opinion on the farm doesn't offend me in the least -- I tend to ignore people who don't have a clue what they are talking about and you have made everything you don't know pretty evident .. see how you trying to get cute blew up in your face?   Second, I know better than to make the same mistake you constantly make and assume anything... So, unless you can point to a post of mine where I'm predicting "awesome best case scenarios", you have once again argued something that hasn't been said .

Are you going to pretend you're above it all again?
 

[Inside Pitch]

23 minutes ago, floplag said:

so sexy when youre angry, lol  ok tough guy... ill let you have your last word.  have a peachy day.  

I'm sorry that I don't handle you with kid gloves the way Doc does and that in getting straight to the point you seemingly get intimidated and assume I'm angry, but the only thing about you that angers me is how incredibly stupid you are.   It's not a good look.   BTW -- the last word shit only works when you haven't already made that comment ad nauseam.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Are you going to pretend you're above it all again?

Aaaaaaad....

16 minutes ago, floplag said:

so sexy when youre angry, lol  ok tough guy... ill let you have your last word.  have a peachy day.  

LOL....  

[Tank]

doggone, flop and doc have resurrected some old lifetime vs. red thread busters here. i'm not reading all of that.

[Angel Oracle]

On ‎11‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 12:21 AM, Dochalo said:

by misconceptions, I didn't want to leave the impression that I though 2021 was some magical year where everyone in the Angel org suddenly yelled 'ok NOW!'.  

I wouldn't rely too much on 3rd party assessments of our farm system.  I think as long as we all realize that it's good, not great and has a fair about of potential/upside.  In 1-2 years I think it will be even better.  The fact that we don't have the depth, though, only brings home my point which is that there really isn't anyone to sell high on right now.  Even Jones, as you mentioned might be redundant, but he's still got a ton of upside that could easily be realized in 2019 so I don't see him as a sell high sort at all.  Pretty much anyone we move right now we'd be selling low on except maybe Ward or Thaiss.  

It's been so long since we've had a prospect become a legit major leaguer, I think most people have been conditioned to assume they're all overrated.  As an example, Barria was barely in the top 10 on most outside lists yet #6 per the AW rankings.  Sickels had him at #6 as well.  

Anyway, it doesn't really matter.  My point is that we've got a bunch of guys who are actually legit right now and set to start making contributions soon whether people want to believe that or not.  You don't have to have the best farm for it to be impactful at the major league level when you have a good payroll to back it up.  

I am totally on board with your frustration about Arte's unwillingness to expand payroll to supplement the team.  But looking at it objectively, maybe Arte's being told that adding an additional $20mil to payroll isn't likely to get the job done.  While we think it might (and I do), maybe he considers it to be too much of a risk when he has those who are more objective looking at the roster and it's holes.  

Where I think you and I disagree is that winning in 2019 is going to have any impact on whether Trout signs an extension.  Or Simmons for that matter.  In fact, I feel like if we preserve the players that will be more helpful 2-3 years from now, it will only strengthen the case for those guys to stay.  If they leave because they're mad at Arte for not making more of a financial effort over the next two years, then either the team has done a poor job of communicating it's plan or Mike has gotten some bad advice.  

If Simmons and Trout intend to leave, then we should just trade them at some point and if done properly, it might lengthen our process to becoming a winner by a chunk but it's certainly not a death sentence to the org.  It would suck from a fan standpoint though as my own personal vision for us winning a title includes watching Trout, Upton and Adell hug it out after Arrenado throws out Corey Seager to end game 6 of the world series.  

+1 to this