2018 Hot Stove League

[UndertheHalo]

Just now, Make Angels Great Again said:

Hopefully this off-season isn't like 2006-2007 where our most notable signings were GMJ and Facking shea hillenbrand.

What are you talking about man.  Those times were exciting as fu*k.  Damn I was so pumped when the Angels signed GMJ.  I watched his catch like 5000 times.  So badass. 

I was only this excited about the Steve Finley acquisition. 

[UndertheHalo]

They make it sound like literally only the Braves or Padres could get Realmuto.  The Dodgers don’t have those kinds of prospects.  Certainly the Mets do not. 

Edited December 4, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

I don't have an article but I have a spreadsheet that lists a basic surplus value for many players as part of my research for the Primer Series.

Based on his two remaining years, estimated salary over those two years (about $17M total), his 3-year running average of WAR production, yearly inflation, and $/WAR (I use $9.5M as a base for 2019) base amount, I have him pegged at approximately $65M in surplus value.

FanGraphs recently published a prospect valuation article where they placed Jo Adell at a rough value of $53M.

Understanding that my valuation of Realmuto may not be exact you could probably say that in order to acquire him you would need to give up Jo Adell plus another mid-tier prospect give or take. Something like Adell plus Thaiss or something like that.

Considering how shallow the top-tier catching market is, the Marlins are probably trying to justify a higher asking price so it might rise to something like Adell and Suarez for example. In the end I think it is something we should steer clear from in my opinion unless Adell is not in the package.

https://lasportshub.com/2018/12/02/los-angeles-angels-trade-j-t-realmuto/

This Angels blog offered Canning, Marsh, Renfigo and Luis Pena, which is actually a pretty decent package. The article you posted has Marsh at $28 and Caning at $23, so that's $51, and Renfigo and Pena are likely worth the difference. But, that's an even trade, whereas, the Marlins are likely looking for a greater return, so I think you'd have to add Thaiss and Briceno, but drop out Pena. That's a quantity over quality trade for sure, as they were looking for guys that were close to 90-110M in value, which shows why that didn't go through.

[UndertheHalo]

Remember when Stoneman brought in Andres “the big cat” Gallerraga ? He was like 63 years old but supposedly could still hit dongs out of the park.  It was pretty cool.  He didn’t hit any dongs for the Angels (he hit I think one) of course.  But whatever.  The marine layer is mighty.  

Exciting mid season times. 

Edited December 4, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Docwaukee]

Just now, totdprods said:

Pass.

fangraphs could be off base here.  Personally, I think they're a bit high.  But I think it would cost at least Canning and if you don't include Adell, then it would have to be like Marsh and Jones.  Whatever it is, it's likely too rich for our blood.  If it were Marsh and two others not in our top 10, then I think you'd have to consider it.  I just think they're waiting to be overwhelmed.  The marlins didn't get a great return for Yelich because they bought the Brinson hype.  They got a couple of good prospects, but now they want to make up the difference.  

I think it'll start with at least one guy in the top 15 who has superstar potential.  If I am them, I wouldn't trade Realmuto without getting Adell.  

[ettin]

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

https://lasportshub.com/2018/12/02/los-angeles-angels-trade-j-t-realmuto/

This Angels blog offered Canning, Marsh, Renfigo and Luis Pena, which is actually a pretty decent package. The article you posted has Marsh at $28 and Caning at $23, so that's $51, and Renfigo and Pena are likely worth the difference. But, that's an even trade, whereas, the Marlins are likely looking for a greater return, so I think you'd have to add Thaiss and Briceno, but drop out Pena. That's a quantity over quality trade for sure, as they were looking for guys that were close to 90-110M in value, which shows why that didn't go through.

Agreed but I doubt the Marlins will take anything less than the best prospect that they can acquire. As much as I would love that deal (and it could be real for all I know) a Realmuto trade seems unlikely without Adell involved.

It is in that gray area where we don't know how the Marlins valuate our prospects and whether or not they would accept an overpay in quantity over quality. The Padres did that when we acquired Huston Street (quantity over quality) because they were hoping more for a lottery ticket hit or two but as we can see that trade did not pan out for them at all. This is why an asset like Realmuto will probably bring back an elite-ish level prospect like Adell.

[Make Angels Great Again]

6 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Remember when Stoneman brought in Andres “the big cat” Gallerraga ? He was like 63 years old but supposedly could still hit dongs out of the park.  It was pretty cool.  He didn’t hit any dongs for the Angels (he hit I think one) of course.  But whatever.  The marine layer is mighty.  

Exciting mid season times. 

 

I still have my Edgardo Alfonzo jersey.

[floplag]

16 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

They make it sound like literally only the Braves or Padres could get Realmuto.  The Dodgers don’t have those kinds of prospects.  Certainly the Mets do not. 

Dodgers have a glut of young ML players they could move in its place though, especially in the OF.   

[Hubs]

I agree with both Doc and Ettin here, but as we've seen, neither the Astros or Braves were willing to give up a top 15 guy. And Realmuto wants to be traded out of Miami.

The three teams left that could be interested, were named as the Angels, Dodgers, and Mets.

Canning and Marsh is a legit return. But I think they'd want 4 names, just like they got for Ozuna and Yelich.

The Dodgers and Mets both have a guy they could send with a 55 grade, or a $42M valuation, but then don't really have anything else in the minors except the Dodgers having Verdugo?

Would you rather have C Smith and OF Verdugo or SS Gimenez and 1B Alonso?

I think the Smith/Verdugo package is the best of the three, but do you see them actually giving that up? And their best young trade chip on the majors being  Puig, who the Marlins most certainly won't want with Mattingly as the manager.

[totdprods]

I guess I just have a lot of faith in Eppler finding a catcher very cheaply who provides a safe 1-2 WAR. It's not nearly the upside of Realmuto, but probably comes at 1/4th the cost, if not far less than that. We'd just have to make up the differences elsewhere. 

[rafibomb]

 

[UndertheHalo]

31 minutes ago, floplag said:

Dodgers have a glut of young ML players they could move in its place though, especially in the OF.   

The Dodgers don’t have any prospects currently that Are regarded as highly as Robles or Soto.  They don’t have any as well regarded as Adell. 

[Tyler]

Eppler is looking asleep at the wheel here. I sure hope he's working on something big because you can't sit back here with this same mediocre team. 

[rottiesworld]

He is working on getting PS5

 

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Tyler said:

Eppler is looking asleep at the wheel here. I sure hope he's working on something big because you can't sit back here with this same mediocre team. 

When has Eppler ever made a lot of noise?

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Chuck, it's not like this deal was done though. I think they could make a deal without including Adell.

Also, this was rumored in the off-season of 2017-2018 that they wanted these guys, not now, after Soto crashing the major leagues and nearly winning the ROTY.

I think they wanted Soto or Robles and other pieces, or maybe both guys, so the Nationals rightfully balked.

They also were rumored to ask for Whitley and Tucker which the Astros rightfully rejected.

I can see the Angels offering a deal centered around two of Marsh, Jones, Thaiss, Canning, Suarez, and then including guys like Fletcher or Renfigo or young major league types in order to land him. And they'd probably ask for Smith or Briceno back as well.

 

Is Realmuto really all that though?   Even though his OPS is around .790 since 2016, he hasn't hit very well at home.   

That's too much to give up to improve your team by what?   3.0 to 4.0 WAR/season?

 

[floplag]

42 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

The Dodgers don’t have any prospects currently that Are regarded as highly as Robles or Soto.  They don’t have any as well regarded as Adell. 

No, but they have a couple guys that just started at the ML level that could also be appealing aside from prospects, young cost controlled guys that have already show ML ability.

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, floplag said:

No, but they have a couple guys that just started at the ML level that could also be appealing aside from prospects, young cost controlled guys that have already show ML ability.

Who?  Bellinger and who else?  They aren’t trading Buehler.  I guess they could trade Urias. But if you were the Dodgers would you give up Bellinger for Realmuto?   Not sure I would.  

[UndertheHalo]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Who?  Bellinger and who else?  They aren’t trading Buehler.  I guess they could trade Urias. But if you were the Dodgers would you give up Bellinger for Realmuto?   Not sure I would.  

And that’s literally what it would take.  If it’s Robles or Soto.  Especially Soto since he’s shown to be productive in the majors. Frankly, imo, Soto seems like he’s already likely better then Bellinger.  

Anyway if that’s the ask. Bellinger is the comp on the Dodgers. 

Edited December 5, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[floplag]

I'm simply pointing out that suggesting the Dodgers couldnt put together a packaging using prospects and or young players and counting them out is simply not accurate in my opinion. 
IF they wanted to get in the mix, they could.  
I said nothing about whether they should or if it made sense for them too.

[Hubs]

21 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Is Realmuto really all that though?   Even though his OPS is around .790 since 2016, he hasn't hit very well at home.   

That's too much to give up to improve your team by what?   3.0 to 4.0 WAR/season?

 

Realmuto can provide more WAR than that.

And almost all of Maldonado and Briceno's WAR from last year comes from the positional adjustment. Catchers are given 9 runs (or basically 0.9 WAR) basically for being a Catcher, multiplied by the number of innings played / 1350 innings.  So Maldonado played roughly 49.9% of that adjustment, giving him 0.45 WAR. And he was a 0.4 WAR player.

Briceno was bascially the catcher for 22.5% giving him basically 0.2 WAR, And Arcia 0.1.

The total WAR for the Catchers was 1.3.

Moreover, he bascially becomes a legit bat in the middle of the lineup, at 6M for 2018. And he'll likley play 20-30 games at 1st, in addition to the 100-110 at Catcher.

He's the best catcher in the majors, except maybe Grandal. And Grandal costs a 1st or 2nd round pick and will be at least 2x as expensive.

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Realmuto can provide more WAR than that.

And almost all of Maldonado and Briceno's WAR from last year comes from the positional adjustment. Catchers are given 9 runs (or basically 0.9 WAR) basically for being a Catcher, multiplied by the number of innings played / 1350 innings.  So Maldonado played roughly 49.9% of that adjustment, giving him 0.45 WAR. And he was a 0.4 WAR player.

Briceno was bascially the catcher for 22.5% giving him basically 0.2 WAR, And Arcia 0.1.

The total WAR for the Catchers was 1.3.

Moreover, he bascially becomes a legit bat in the middle of the lineup, at 6M for 2018. And he'll likley play 20-30 games at 1st, in addition to the 100-110 at Catcher.

He's the best catcher in the majors, except maybe Grandal. And Grandal costs a 1st or 2nd round pick and will be at least 2x as expensive.

Still think Ramos is a nice compromise.  Good bad.  No picks.  Solid defense.  

don't forget you are giving Realmuto the same 0.9 wins per 1350 innings at C.  So a big chunk of his value comes from positional scarcity.  His offense is good but not great.  He had a wRC+ of 126.  CJ Cron's wCR+ was 122.  

The big kickers are his age and the lack of long term control.  You extend him beyond that two years and you are paying top dollar for a guy entering his 30's that gets a ton of value from a position that's hard to play in your 30's full time.  

I'll give you the extreme example of Joe Mauer.  Had a 5.6 WAR season at age 30 with 90% of his innings behind the dish.  Then got paid 23m per to play 1b over the next 5 years and produce 10 total WAR.  Before that, he was better than Realmuto.  

Realmuto would be a great addition to several teams that have taken a pass.  That should give us all a clue as to the cost of acquisition.  

 

[ettin]

2 hours ago, rafibomb said:

 

Kole Calhoun for Zack Wheeler and just start Jo Adell in RF?

Aggressive start by Eppler (in regard to Adell) though I don't think he will do that.

[UndertheHalo]

 

NPB hot stove action. 

[TroutField]

I’ve noticed a lot of guys signing in Japan and Korea. Money is better than being a minor leaguer and you get to eat sushi or kimchi every day. Solid gig