Ohtani's offensive upside

[Angelsjunky]

I wrote a post several weeks back about Ohtani's overall upside, positing that as good of a hitter as he is, his pitching upside is just greater. Whereas he could turn into a top 20 hitter, he could be a top 5 pitcher - his stuff is just that good. Of course the problem is volatility. A hitter's peak value is generally only eroded by chronic injuries, while a pitcher's entire career can be put into jeopardy by a single injury.

Anyhow, I wanted to talk about Ohtani's upside as a hitter, inspired by his bomb off Verlander. As of this writing (after the bomb) he's hitting .276/.353/.542 with a 144 wRC+ and 14 HR in 253 PA. He's got a 10.3% BB rate and a 28.5% K rate. His BABIP is pretty high at .345, but not so much that we should expect huge regression. In other words, Ohtani has produced close to a .900 OPS, is on pace for 30+ HR over a full season, and his wRC+ would be tied with Manny Machado for 12th best in the majors if he qualified.

In other words, Shohei is already a top 20 hitter in his first season. 

One thing that is easy to forget, or at least that I forget, is that he only just turned 24 years old. He's a few months younger than Taylor Ward and David Fletcher. So while he played in the Japanese majors for a few years, he's still young enough that he should improve - maybe substantially so. I don't expect him to become one of the very best hitters in the majors, but he could be close.

What do you see as his offensive upside? Given what we've seen so far, how much better can and will he get? Obviously his big issue is hitting left-handers. Compare his splits before tonight:

vs. RHP: .307/.379/.626, 172 wRC+ in 183 PA

vs. LHP: .167/.265/.233, 45 wRC+ in 68 PA

That 172 wRC+ vs RHP is good for 4th in the majors among players with at least 100 PA, behind only JD Martinez, Mike Trout, and Jose Ramirez, and just ahead of Mookie Betts. 

That 45 wRC+ vs LHP, on the other hand, is #303 out of 327 batters with 50+ PA vs lefties. Ouch.

He can only get better against left-handers. Let's say he consolidates against right-handers. All of a sudden his .276/.353/.542 line becomes something like .290/.370/.580, maybe better in peak years. Crazy to think.

[arch stanton]

I'm all for convincing him to become a full time position player. That power is just too legit to keep on the bench

[GrittyVeterans]

I’ve changed my mind. I used to think if he quit pitching he’d just be another guy, maybe a Kendry Morales post injury or something 

now I think he’s a star no matter what. What he is doing in his rookie year as a hitter is pretty crazy

[tomsred]

In pursuing him as a starting pitcher, it really takes away from his time to become a really special hitter.  I'd like to see the organization try him as a late inning relief pitcher, first baseman, and a DH.  I think he can contribute more to this team in those roles than in spending so much time, risk and energy pursuing a starting pitcher role.  He really looks attractive to this club right now as a pitcher because we are so thirsty for reliable starters who can go deeper into games.  However, every time he starts he then becomes unavailable for potentially three games as a hitter, that's a lot of missed hitting opportunities.  Maybe this off season we can sign one or two upper tier starters to stabilize the pitching staff, and who can also remain healthy for a full season.  I really think we need Ohtani's bat in the lineup virtually full time.  Also, Pujols will not be able to stay on the field enough in the remaining years of his contract to play as many games at first base as he has this year.  Thaiss is an unknown at this point (maybe trade bait, or maybe he shares time at first with Ohtani), and Ohtani is the guy who could push Pujols into retirement.

I hope Ohtani pitches some in September in order to assess his stamina, and how his arm might hold up, or not.  It might be good to get a sneak peak at Thaiss, but I understand the problems associated with getting him on the 40 man roster, when we don't have to, in order to protect him.

Maybe you guys remember, did he ever get tried as a relief pitcher in Japan?

[mulwin444]

He chance to become an Ace SP that hits .900+ OPS and the Angel's would be insane not to let him try.

[tdawg87]

5 hours ago, mulwin444 said:

He chance to become an Ace SP that hits .900+ OPS and the Angel's would be insane not to let him try.

Yep.

Trying him out as a reliever should be last resort. He should be given every possible opportunity to succeed as a starter. If he can't, or he just can't stay healthy, THEN you think about a move to the bullpen.

He's literally just 24 years old and he's our best pitcher. He's also our 2nd best hitter. This is completely unprecedented in MLB and we should ride it out for as long as we can. If he ends up a reliever then so be it, but it is way too early to make that call. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

I can’t see the Angels using Ohtani as a reliever under any circumstances (except maybe a postseason elimination game type thing). 

If he’s in the lineup, or playing a position, how is he supposed to warm up? 

Also, relievers workloads are unpredictable, which is not what you want if you’re trying to protect his arm. You also don’t want him rushing his warm up, which could lead to injury. 

This is the deal...

1. He’s primarily a starting pitcher. That’s where he has his greatest upside and value. Everything else works around that. 

2. If for some reason he can’t be a starting pitcher (injury or ineffectiveness), then you start to look at other things. But not until then. 

I would add that I don’t think he’ll be be limited to the way he was used as a hitter while pitching in the first two months. Over the next five years I could see that gradually expanding to where he hits the day after he starts or they may even give up the DH on days he is pitching sometimes. Also, Albert Pujols may someday be gone (or on the DL), which makes it easier for Ohtani to DH. 

Edited August 26, 2018 by Jeff Fletcher

[wopphil]

Ohtani is way too good to be in the pen. Let him start. If his arm blows up, get TJ and come back as a starter.

[tdawg87]

31 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Also, Albert Pujols may someday be gone (or on the DL)

[tomsred]

 

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I can’t see the Angels using Ohtani as a reliever under any circumstances (except maybe a postseason elimination game type thing). 

If he’s in the lineup, or playing a position, how is he supposed to warm up? 

Also, relievers workloads are unpredictable, which is not what you want if you’re trying to protect his arm. You also don’t want him rushing his warm up, which could lead to injury. 

This is the deal...

1. He’s primarily a starting pitcher. That’s where he has his greatest upside and value. Everything else works around that. 

2. If for some reason he can’t be a starting pitcher (injury or ineffectiveness), then you start to look at other things. But not until then. 

I would add that I don’t think he’ll be be limited to the way he was used as a hitter while pitching in the first two months. Over the next five years I could see that gradually expanding to where he hits the day after he starts or they may even give up the DH on days he is pitching sometimes. Also, Albert Pujols may someday be gone (or on the DL), which makes it easier for Ohtani to DH. 

Some really good points here Jeff.  I was just trying to think of ways he could contribute more with the bat, and thought that maybe he would play more offensively if he didn't expend so much energy as a starter.  Well, I guess I can scratch the idea of using him as a reliever at this point.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Ohtani really should pick up a first basement glove this offseason. That would make things a lot easier.

[ScottT]

He's not going to get better against LHP by sitting on the bench whenever one starts.  The Angels are done this season. Get him more at bats against LHP.

[Tank]

9 hours ago, tomsred said:

Well, I guess I can scratch the idea of using him as a reliever at this point.

i wish all of the knuckleheads around here would get this point.

[Second Base]

I really don't see any reason to drastically shift the way the team is using Shohei Ohtani. He was a tad underused as a hitter at first, logging only three starts a week, but I think in time that'll increase to four or five. I doubt the Angels move to a point where he bats when he's on the mound, but I do think they'll move away from resting him both the day before and the day after a start.

I think the norm will probably be starting at DH Tuesday through Saturday, pitching on Sunday, resting on Monday. So four to five DH starts per week.

It comes out to 400 plate appearances and 25 starts a year on the mound if he's healthy.

And I think he's a legitimate 5-6 win player if he's healthy, logging some MVP and Cy Young consideration annually.

[Pujols4MVP]

8 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I really don't see any reason to drastically shift the way the team is using Shohei Ohtani. He was a tad underused as a hitter at first, logging only three starts a week, but I think in time that'll increase to four or five. I doubt the Angels move to a point where he bats when he's on the mound, but I do think they'll move away from resting him both the day before and the day after a start.

I think the norm will probably be starting at DH Tuesday through Saturday, pitching on Sunday, resting on Monday. So four to five DH starts per week.

It comes out to 400 plate appearances and 25 starts a year on the mound if he's healthy.

And I think he's a legitimate 5-6 win player if he's healthy, logging some MVP and Cy Young consideration annually.

If he bats #2 to #4 in 2019 could the PA's be higher than 400 ? If he has a .900 or higher OPS next season & with the way he runs the bases his WAR as a DH should be higher than other DHs of similar OPS & then if he pitches 150 innings of 3.25 ERA how high could his WAR be combined of both pitching & hitting ?

[thebloob]

Will they be able to move him into a 5 day rotation instead of the 6.  I think this hurts the team in the long run.  Follow me here...

First, make some assumptions (I know pipe dreams) that all starters stay healthy all year.

In 5 man rotation, all starters get 32-33 starts.

In the 6 man rotation, all starters get 27 starts.  What that means is that you take 5-6 starts away from the top starters and have to give 27 starts to a 6th starter.  How many teams have so much starting pitching that they are dying to give 27 starts to the 6th man, certainly not the Angels.

 

They gotta get him to a 5 days rotation to keep starts away from the 6th man.  Allowing him to hit on pitching days or days before or after will help get more exposure hitting also.

[Taylor]

On 8/25/2018 at 11:16 PM, tomsred said:

In pursuing him as a starting pitcher, it really takes away from his time to become a really special hitter.  I'd like to see the organization try him as a late inning relief pitcher, first baseman, and a DH.  I think he can contribute more to this team in those roles than in spending so much time, risk and energy pursuing a starting pitcher role.  He really looks attractive to this club right now as a pitcher because we are so thirsty for reliable starters who can go deeper into games.  However, every time he starts he then becomes unavailable for potentially three games as a hitter, that's a lot of missed hitting opportunities.  Maybe this off season we can sign one or two upper tier starters to stabilize the pitching staff, and who can also remain healthy for a full season.  I really think we need Ohtani's bat in the lineup virtually full time.  Also, Pujols will not be able to stay on the field enough in the remaining years of his contract to play as many games at first base as he has this year.  Thaiss is an unknown at this point (maybe trade bait, or maybe he shares time at first with Ohtani), and Ohtani is the guy who could push Pujols into retirement.

I hope Ohtani pitches some in September in order to assess his stamina, and how his arm might hold up, or not.  It might be good to get a sneak peak at Thaiss, but I understand the problems associated with getting him on the 40 man roster, when we don't have to, in order to protect him.

Maybe you guys remember, did he ever get tried as a relief pitcher in Japan?

lol

He hits a HR off Verlander, and we're ready to throw in the towel on his ace SP potential.

[Troll Daddy]

Ohtani is a part time platoon DH/PH  ... I don’t ever see that changing unless god forbid pitching isn’t a option any longer. 

[TroutBaseball]

On 8/26/2018 at 8:33 AM, Jeff Fletcher said:

 Also, Albert Pujols may someday be gone 

Don't be a tease.

[Tank]

6 hours ago, Scioscia4MVP said:

If he bats #2 to #4 in 2019 could the PA's be higher than 400 ? If he has a .900 or higher OPS next season & with the way he runs the bases his WAR as a DH should be higher than other DHs of similar OPS & then if he pitches 150 innings of 3.25 ERA how high could his WAR be combined of both pitching & hitting ?

eleventy-threeve?

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

eleventy-threeve?

Quiet, Turd Ferguson!

[Pujols4MVP]

On 8/27/2018 at 1:02 PM, Tank said:

eleventy-threeve?

So 11.3 WAR that sounds about right. He'd get 6 WAR from his hitting & base running & the 5.3 WAR from his pitching.

For that high of a WAR he'd have to bat .300/.400/.550,  pitch 175 innings with a 2.75 ERA. All possible in a career year.