Active HOF players

[happybat4]

Before the board had a melt down there was a topic I started on active players who would make the HOF. This was my list,ehich is based off projections, not just current stats. 

Already HOF players 

Miguel Cabrera 

Albert Pujols

Adrian Beltre

Clayton Kershaw

 

Who I think will make the HOF

Mike Trout

Max Sherzer

Madison Burgamer 

Buster Posey

Aaron Judge

Bryce Harper

Justin Verlander 

Francisco Lindor

Manny Machado

 

My sleeper pick

Nick Markakis - I don't think he will be deserving, but I think he will be the Ibanez type that will play until 42. He will sneak in with 3000 hits and getting on base 4000 times. Hell be 34 at the end of the season and will probably be at 2200 hits and 3100 times on base. 

[Stradling]

Way to early for Judge and Madison has a ton of work to do.  

Mother possibilities are Mauer and Sabathia.  

[GrittyVeterans]

Lindor and Judge have years to go before they're in the discussion. Andrelton Simmons is closer to the Hall of Fame than Lindor right now.

Agree with @The Boogie Man's post above. I know he hasn't played catcher in a while but Mauer won 3 batting titles as a C once upon a time. I think the sheer novelty of that might be enough to get him in. I'm not sure we will ever see a catcher do that again. Although he is borderline.

Also, no way Markakis makes it in. I would have Pedroia and Felix as my sleepers. Votto is another guy who should get in

I know Bumgarner has the playoff dominance on his side (which matters), but if you compare the numbers, Felix was better for a longer period of time. I'd say MadBum needs to have at least 4 more good seasons.

[disarcina]

Yadier Molina is on my list.

Does Kershaw's latest injury change the equation? I guess the question is this -- does Kershaw have HOF stats right now? Because some are saying this back thing may be it for him.

 

[disarcina]

with some of these names - the HOF criteria is really going to have to change for the big money, shorter career era of MLB.

players these days have about 10-12 year careers and then are done (some pitchers -- Bartolo Colon comes to mind) are the exceptions.

but with the money being paid these guys these days -- teams cannot afford to keep fading stars on the roster (except perhaps the Halos and Pujols -- and that may be one of the last of those type of contracts you see - because of the down side on the back side of the contract) -- so the Don Sutton, Bert Blyleven (and others) HOF'ers who stick around long enough to put up magic numbers won't happen in today's game.

Ichiro is 'sort of' retired -- not sure exactly what his status is -- but he's a sure first ballot guy IMO.

 

[Second Base]

I think Yadi Molina and Andrelton Simmons will make it on too.

[Broad Street]

Mad-Bum most definitely makes it in just based on his playoff dominance alone.

[disarcina]

when players from this era start being eligible for HOF -- the traditional magic number standards for HOF entry are going to have to change.

the 3,000 hits mark,  500 HR mark,  300 wins mark just isn't going to be reached by today's players.

the average MLB career is much shorter than in the past, players don't need to play as long and teams are less willing to not willing to pay players to hang around for past performance at a high contract./ salary level.........they'd rather have a younger player under club control fill those either platoon.and/or  bench depth roles than an aging vet.

so when today's players are on the ballot -- the new 'magic' numbers will be closer to 2,000 hits,  350/400 HRs and 200 wins. That's where the top players from this era are likely to be.

A=Rod and Pujols (Thome just got in) are going to be the last 600 HR guys in.  Barry Bonds should make it but probably won't and I don't see any way Sammy Sosa gets even close.

so the next players are going to be closer to 400 HRs.  I don't see any pitcher getting to 300 wins.   200 is a lot these days. The Ohtani experiment by the Angels might actually have something to do with this -- not that we are going to see a lot of both offense and pitching players but perhaps could see teams looking at the six man rotation and experimenting with different rotation mixes (even the 'reverse closing' recently used where TB (I think it was TB) had reliever Sergio Romo start two games in a row pitching the first inning) and then the five inning starters with pre set up and set up guys to the closer becoming the standard.  (old timers like Bob Gibson -- 38-40 starts a year, 380 IP a year and 30 complete games each year have to be rolling their eyes)

it's going to matching/ comparing dominant players against each other -- Bumgarner's impressive post season stats, Kershaw's multiple Cy Youngs / impressive record over a compressed period of time (actually has better career stats than Koufax at this point -- but no rings) Mike Trout's amazing stats over the first six/ seven years of his career.......all these things will propel these players to the HOF.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

3 hours ago, disarcina said:

Does Kershaw's latest injury change the equation? I guess the question is this -- does Kershaw have HOF stats right now? Because some are saying this back thing may be it for him.

Kershaw has pitched two fewer seasons than Sandy Koufax did, and he has about 20 fewer wins. IMO he would be borderline for the HOF if his career ended today.

[GrittyVeterans]

Altuve deserves a mention in this thread too, and if you are going to mention Lindor then throw Correa's name in there too (Although he has a lot to prove as well).

Kershaw is a lock. 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP. 2.37 career ERA is insane

Also, for all the talk about Kershaw being done, his ERA this season is still 2.76. Still striking out over a batter per inning. He's in decline but I have a hard time believing he's totally done at 30. I think he can still have 3-4 more solid seasons.

[Tank]

55 minutes ago, Kody Mac said:

Mad-Bum most definitely makes it in just based on his playoff dominance alone.

nope, that won't be enough. here are his career stats. he's going to need some big win totals in the regular season to get consideration, imho. 9 years and 104 career wins isn't hall worthy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml

 

Edited June 4, 2018 by Tank

[GrittyVeterans]

Curt Schilling was a great playoff performer, has way better regular season numbers than MadBum. Why isn't he in the HOF? Did he get busted for PEDs? (honestly wondering, I thought he was in already).

Really can't see Bum getting in if Schilling isn't in

[Tank]

i'm going to renew my concern about bryce harper being a shoe-in. while he has award credentials (ROY, MVP, and 5 all star games), he's got questionably borderline season stats. he's going to need to have several more big years to gain more serious consideration.

[disarcina]

Altuve still too soon but well on his way if he keeps up the 200 hits a season pace.

Vegas Halos Fan has run the stats on Kershaw and makes a good point -- like Altuve, I felt Kershaw was well on his way- if not a lock. Now his back injury and its flaring back up may jeopardize his career.......so if it ends today -- Vegas Halos Fan has the numbers right -- Koufax 1955-1966 (11 seasons); Kershaw 2008-2018 (10 seasons including this year - half season )

Koufax 3 Cy Youngs, 1 MVP, 2 second place MVPS; Kershaw 3 Cy Youngs,  1 MVP; 2 second place CY Youngs;

Koufax 165 wins, Kershaw 145;  Koufax 2,396 K's Kershaw 2,173

Koufax rings in 59, 63, 65  and post season success -- Kershaw - no rings......I think he has one post season win.

The real difference i would suggest is that if you compare Kershaw's 10 year stats to any other pitcher of this era........Kershaw will have few peers with those numbers

Koufax would have more company with respect to those numbers he put up (Gibson, Marichal, Carlton,  Drysdale)

 

[JustATroutFan]

1 hour ago, Kody Mac said:

Mad-Bum most definitely makes it in just based on his playoff dominance alone.

Uh, no? Please, if guys like Orel and Schilling can't make the HOF, neither should Bumgarner. And Schilling was more dominant than Bumgarner at his peak. Had a lot of of outstanding seasons despite pitching in much tougher pitching environments than Bumgarner. 

[disarcina]

Clemens should be IN -- might not make it - PEDs stuff.

Schilling was dominating.

Hershisher should be in -- held scoreless innings record.

all these guys are stuck being held to the 300 wins standard stuff -- the game was already changing (but not to where it is today re starting rotations) when these guys pitched.

[JustATroutFan]

My sleeper pick for the Hall of Fame is Kluber. I feel like he can have 3-4 more great years and he doesn't have that many innings pitched under his belt for a guy who is kind of old (by MLB standards). So he should benefit in his late years more so than most other guys. 

[disarcina]

perhaps Pujols' chances were 100 percent when he got his 3,000 hit (to go along with 600 HRs) and the longer he plays now -- he slips a few percentage points.

[Puget Sound Angel]

Way too early to give Judge a pass. Everyone realizes this except the New York media.

[Angelsjunky]

No love for Joey Votto?

Also, to add to the Hall of Fame talent but too soon to tell category, add in Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts, Freedie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt. I only scanned the thread, but don't think anyone mentioned them. Throw in Giancarlo as well. Also, Jose "Must Underrated Superstar in MLB" Ramirez.

I agree that it is too soon on Judge. He's great, but he also could decline early. I also agree Altuve is well on hs way.

If Nick Markakis somehow makes it to 3,000 hits, he will be the first 3,000 guy not to make it. No way he gets in.

[beatlesrule]

LOL at Judge.  He is in his sophomore year. Way too early. Put Trout on the already HOF list.  It's a crime that Orel and Shilling aren't in yet.  Are they still eligible?  I agree that your list is lacking some players but most have already been stated in the thread.  Not to bring up a sore subject but both Cabrera and Beltre could have and should have been Angels

[stormngt]

6 hours ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

This site says Trout's chance at the HOF is 100% whereas Pujols is only 80%. Not sure how Pujols is only at 80%. They use a complex mathematical model, though. Hopefully @Dochalo can analyze it and tell us if it's legit.

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/2/18/16942696/hall-of-fame-mike-trout-vote-formula-active-players

I guess there is good reason not to trust the site.

[yamsi12]

You guys are underselling the HOF.

[T.G.]

The case for Joey Votto

Career BA: .313. Career OBP: .428 Career OPS: .964

MVP 2009.  MVP runner up 2017 and placed 3rd in 2015.

Lead the league in OBP six times

Lead the league in OPS twice.

Lifetime WAR: 57

 

 

[Stradling]

Yep add Votto