That J-Up extension...

[Dick B Back]

25 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

When the year is done I expect good offensive numbers from him, but I still think the extension was a poor decision.  I don't like his defense and feel we overpaid. I don't think he would have gotten his old contact this offseason. That being said LF has been so bad for so long I respect arte for the move. 

Just think, instead of Upton, we coulda has Blash in LF full time. Ha, sometimes I make myself laugh.

[Stradling]

Anyone that bitches about the Upton extension (that pays him less annually) must have horrible short and long term memories.  

Hamilton

Maybin

Joyce

Victorino

DeJesus

Rivera

Some dude named Cesar Puello (seriously that is a name of a guy that played last year for the Angels)

Shane Robinson

Eric Young Jr

Rafael Ortega (No idea who that is)

Ji Man Choi

Nick Buss

Daniel Nava

Todd Cunningham

 

That is basically the last few years, but mostly the last two years.  If you don’t like Upton, then you are damn hard to please.  

 

 

 

[Erstad Grit]

2 hours ago, SuperTroopers said:

Anyone that bitches about the Upton extension (that pays him less annually) must have horrible short and long term memories.  

Hamilton

Maybin

Joyce

Victorino

DeJesus

Rivera

Some dude named Cesar Puello (seriously that is a name of a guy that played last year for the Angels)

Shane Robinson

Eric Young Jr

Rafael Ortega (No idea who that is)

Ji Man Choi

Nick Buss

Daniel Nava

Todd Cunningham

 

That is basically the last few years, but mostly the last two years.  If you don’t like Upton, then you are damn hard to please.  

 

 

 

Juan Rivera was great

[Angel Oracle]

3 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Juan Rivera was great at helping to cause K-Mo's injury after K-Mo hit the walkoff GS in 2010. 

FIFY

Rivera had some decent stats, but to me, he will always be remembered for that.

[Angelsfan1984]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

FIFY

Rivera had some decent stats, but to me, he will always be remembered for that.

I will always remember Rivera for his elite ability to GIDP and the fact that he looked like he was wearing eye liner.

[jordan]

On 5/2/2018 at 3:19 PM, jordan said:

Soon enough, we will be forgetting all the fretting over Upton.  He will be ok.  He looks terrible right now, but I think he will be just fine.  Salmon used to go through similar stretches of just disappearing. 

Like I said...

[Erstad Grit]

3 hours ago, Dick B Back said:

Just think, instead of Upton, we coulda has Blash in LF full time. Ha, sometimes I make myself laugh.

I've said the same point over and over again.  If Upton opted out i doubt he would have gotten what we gave him.  Looking at what other players like jd and Cain got I think I'm right.  Our office didn't want to risk it and gave him an extension. I would have told him I hope you stay but if you opt out we are not going to offer you more. Me and a few others who think Upton won that negotiation and we offered an unnecessary extension doesn't mean we don't think he is talented. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

Juan Rivera was great

Juan Rivera was also 8 years ago....

[Inside Pitch]

6 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

I've said the same point over and over again.  If Upton opted out i doubt he would have gotten what we gave him.  Looking at what other players like jd and Cain got I think I'm right.  Our office didn't want to risk it and gave him an extension. I would have told him I hope you stay but if you opt out we are not going to offer you more. Me and a few others who think Upton won that negotiation and we offered an unnecessary extension doesn't mean we don't think he is talented. 

And yet you and others have nothing other than opinion to back up your position.    At the end of the day nobody has a way of proving what never materialized -- both sides can formulate a hypothesis why their position is correct but it's guesswork in both ways..   Also.... just as you believe your position is solid, there is a counter argument that has it's own merit.

You're comparing the two deals on the total dollars involved -- but, it's not as simple as that.. the two deals are not constructed the same way.

Justin Upton is making 16 mil this year .  JD Martinez 24 mil.   Justin Upton is locked for 5 -- JD Martinez can opt out after 2 years, at which point he will have earned more than 50 mil... Upton will have earned 34 mil at the same point in his deal.  JD Martinez will need to continue at his current pace to be a better value and if he does, chances are he opts out next year -- at which point his agent will still be Scott Boras and the Red Sox will need to pony up or possibly lose that production if he leaves.   Martinez will have finished his age 31 season if he does opt out - same age  Cain was when he signed his deal...  Do you really think Scott Boras will advise Martinez to stay in that contract given what Cain got and what he will be owed? (55 mil).

So consider this... 

Cain signed for 5 years 80 mil -- he also had the opportunity cost of draft pick compensation, which we have seen is growing in value and in the Angels case given their continued effort to rebuild after years of being Dipoto'ed may have been  viewed as even more valuable.   Cain's deal runs through age 36, Upton's through age 34.   How well the two age is ultimately going to end up determining the value of their respective contracts.   When you look at Cain's comps through age 31 you find Marlon Byrd, Angel Pagan, Roy Weatherly and the assorted stiffs you'd expect to see for a guy with a career OPS+ of 108.   When you look at Upton's top ten comps through age 29 you find names like Carl Yazstremski, Adrian Beltre, Reggie Jackson, Barry Bonds, Ron Santo..    You got some guys that fell off too -- Andruw Jones and Ruben Sierra...   Which deal do you think will age better?  

It's not as cut and dried as you think, and it's too early for anyone to claim to have been right... for or against.   If we see teams continue to steer clear of big FA deals, then the Upton signing may end up having been an overpay but at the end of the day he doesn't have to be all that great for the Angels to have been able to get positive value out of it.

I'm not saying you're wrong...  I'm saying that nothing is set in stone either way.    

 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Angel Oracle]

One thing is seemingly for sure.   Upton does have some pretty big slumps....andddd some sick as a disease months too.

I just have to accept the big slumps, knowing that he will have some huge months too.   Just have to hope that the hugeness especially comes in September and October. 

[T.G.]

Right now, Upton is in the Applebee's zone... Eating good in the neighborhood - devouring major league pitching.

[Dick B Back]

I think one of the reasons Upton’s slump was so noticeable is because so many others in the lineup were slumping at the same time.

Good teams still win when a star is in a slump cause some others will get hot and carry him.

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Juan Rivera was also 8 years ago....

He brought up Rivera not me.  He listed the failed LFs and I disputed Rivera wasn't good. 

[Erstad Grit]

47 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

And yet you and others have nothing other than opinion to back up your position.    At the end of the day nobody has a way of proving what never materialized -- both sides can formulate a hypothesis why their position is correct but it's guesswork in both ways..   Also.... just as you believe your position is solid, there is a counter argument that has it's own merit.

You're comparing the two deals on the total dollars involved -- but, it's not as simple as that.. the two deals are not constructed the same way.

Justin Upton is making 16 mil this year .  JD Martinez 24 mil.   Justin Upton is locked for 5 -- JD Martinez can opt out after 2 years, at which point he will have earned more than 50 mil... Upton will have earned 34 mil at the same point in his deal.  JD Martinez will need to continue at his current pace to be a better value -- and if he does, chances are he opts out next year -- at which point his agent will still be Scott Boras and the Red Sox will need to pony up or possibly lose that production if he leaves.   Martinez will have finished his age 31 season if he does opt out - same age as Cain was he signed his deal...  Do you really think Scott Boras will advise Martinez to stay in that contract given what Cain got and what he will be owed? (55 mil).

So consider this... 

Cain signed for 5 years 80 mil -- he also had the opportunity cost of draft pick compensation, which we have seen is growing in value and in the Angels case given their continued effort to rebuild after years of being Dipoto'ed may have been  viewed as even more valuable.   Cain's deal runs through age 36, Upton's through age 34.   How well the two age is ultimately going to end up determining the value of their respective contracts.   When you look at Cain's comps through age 31 you find Marlon Byrd, Angel Pagan, Roy Weatherly and the assorted stiffs you'd expect to see for a guy with a career OPS+ of 108.   When you look at Upton's top ten comps through age 29 you find names like Carl Yazstremski, Adrian Beltre, Reggie Jackson, Barry Bonds, Ron Santo..    You got some guys that fell off too -- Andruw Jones and Ruben Sierra...   Which deal do you think will age better?  

It's not as cut and dried as you think, and it's too early for anyone to claim to have been right... for or against.   If we see teams continue to steer clear of big FA deals, then the Upton signing may end up having been an overpay but at the end of the day he doesn't have to be all that great for the Angels to have been able to get positive value out of it.

I'm not saying you're wrong...  I'm saying that nothing is set in stone either way.    

 

 Great points and post. No-one will ever know what Upton would have gotten if we told him no extension .  Perhaps he wouldn't have opted out and we called his bluff.  Perhaps he would have been pissed and took less from another team.  We'll never know.  I get the sentiment that we needed him and a slight overpay to avoid a possible yet unlikely bidding war was worth it.  I did that with the home we bought and 7 years later I don't care if we over paid by 10k. 

The only issue I'm taking is that some equate me saying I think the extension was unnecessary=I think Upton sucks.  

[kevinb]

10 hours ago, Lou said:

Over the last 12 games his OPS is over .950 

His overall OPS has gone up over 90 during that span. 

That’s awesome. But baseball is a long season hopefully he keeps it up. Because the games prior to the last 12 were putrid. 

[Lou]

52 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

That’s awesome. But baseball is a long season hopefully he keeps it up. Because the games prior to the last 12 were putrid. 

"I’m glad he’s starting to hit but his numbers aren’t that much better for the year"

 

This is what my quote was directed towards.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

He brought up Rivera not me.  He listed the failed LFs and I disputed Rivera wasn't good. 

No, I totally got that... I was more or less just pointing out how long it had been since we had seen anyone consistently good.   If not for that leg injury Rivera likely gets a lot more praise from Angels fans than he currently does.

2 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

The only issue I'm taking is that some equate me saying I think the extension was unnecessary=I think Upton sucks.  

Yeah, I can see that getting old in a nanosecond.   Ill say this much.. its easier to take the position that it was unnecessary after the fact. For the most part the FA freeze seemed to catch a lot of people off guard.  Makes this coming FA very interesting IMO.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

That’s awesome. But baseball is a long season hopefully he keeps it up. Because the games prior to the last 12 were putrid. 

LOL...  So now "baseball is a long season"....   Funny how that amazing insight didn't keep you from labeling him as hot garbage when the season was even shorter.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Dick B Back said:

I think one of the reasons Upton’s slump was so noticeable is because so many others in the lineup were slumping at the same time.

 

Thats a huge part of it. It obviously stands out more because hes more important to thr lineup than say kinsler. But at the end of the day, one guy slumping isnt news. The rest of the lineup should be able to pick him up.

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, Kevinb said:

That’s awesome. But baseball is a long season hopefully he keeps it up. Because the games prior to the last 12 were putrid. 

Yea at that point he was only on pace to be a 3-3.5 WAR player.   

[tdawg87]

I love you guys so much.

[kevinb]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

LOL...  So now "baseball is a long season"....   Funny how that amazing insight didn't keep you from labeling him as hot garbage when the season was even shorter.  

He was hot garbage. Just because he’s been hot for 12 games he’s now not? Funny how a month of hot garbage trumps 12 games. But ok then 

[kevinb]

2 hours ago, SuperTroopers said:

Yea at that point he was only on pace to be a 3-3.5 WAR player.   

Ya I don’t know what that means but hitting 240 w a 300 obp and that gets u 3 war I guess that’s good  

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Kevinb said:

Ya I don’t know what that means but hitting 240 w a 300 obp and that gets u 3 war I guess that’s good  

 You can say he had a bad 4 weeks, well it wasn't 4 bad weeks.  After his first 18 games he was hitting .278 with a .337 OBP and had 4 home runs and an OPS of .823.  So really he had two bad weeks, while the rest of the team was asleep at the wheel.  Sorry to ruin your narrative.  

[Ohtaniland]

19 minutes ago, SuperTroopers said:

 You can say he had a bad 4 weeks, well it wasn't 4 bad weeks.  After his first 18 games he was hitting .278 with a .337 OBP and had 4 home runs and an OPS of .823.  So really he had two bad weeks, while the rest of the team was asleep at the wheel.  Sorry to ruin your narrative.  

I still don’t see why they felt the need to extend him. He wasn’t going anywhere. We will probably get 2-3 productive years out of him but we had those years already locked up anyway. You should never add an additional year and backload a contract that has a no trade clause also attached to an aging veteran.