The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Docwaukee]

43 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Marsh had a rough night with RISP. He made some contact but weakly grounded out to first moving Rengifo to second in the first inning. It wasn't a true productive out.

Rengifo was on base every at bat except his last where he actually made contact, grounding out. He came back to the dugout mad at himself and mumbling something. Probably about having a shot at getting on base five times in one night.

Rengifo was flawless at SS. Jones has has improved and doesn't look lost although there was a play on a stolen base that he positioned himself poorly so his tag was late and behind himself. 

Wood was struggling to control his stuff. Threw a lot of off speed but couldn't locate. His delivery always looks like he is always reaching way back to develop more whip but it just doesn't create the intended velocity. He was the scheduled starter but never got out of the first inning. I'm sure it was a planned pitch count more than enefectiveness that caused his early departure.

thanks.  Always good to get an account first hand.  

[Inside Pitch]

19 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

David Fletcher will not have an .800 OPS at the major league level. 

The plus side is he doesn't need to. 

Currently the AL Average 2B is putting up a .682 OPS.   If Fletcher simply repeated his minor league average at the MLB level, he's be among the better offensive 2B in the AL.

[Warfarin]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

He's probably more than he was in previous years yet not as much as what we've seen this year.  

the guy hit's really well where the ball doesn't spin as much.  Did he suddenly turn into Michael Young or Chuck Knoblach?  Doubtful.  

What will tell you if he's for real is if the halos give him time this year in place of Kinsler and if they don't pursue a replacement for next year.  The team's evaluators know more about these guys than anyone else.   Although, if I'm the rockies, I'm gonna kick the tires to see if he's available.  

As an aside,  I would really like to see the halos get a new AAA home.  Something far more neutral.  Tough to find in the PCL though.  

Cool, thank you for the evaluation and insight.

Excellent point - whether we further pursue a 2B will ultimately show what we think of Fletcher.  That said, I would like to at least see him get some ABs later in the year.  Even if he ultimately doesn't hit enough to be a regular, he does seem like he could be a very useful utility infielder for us.  

Would be nice to supplant Kinsler and Valbuena with Fletcher and JML.  To be honest, with how Kinsler and Valbuena are currently producing, I gotta imagine those two could at least equal their current level of production...

[Warfarin]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Thaiss 1/4, 2b, 2bb, sb (2)

Ward 1/4, 2b, 2bb, sb (8)

Jose Rojas 0/6, 3k.  tough day.  

What's fascinating about this is Ward has 8 SBs already this season.  He combined for zero in the last two seasons!  Granted he was playing catcher, but still, you'd imagine we'd see at least a token SB here or there along the way, haha.

I did read Longenhagen report that scouts are still skeptical that Ward will translate into a starter at the MLB level, but we'll see.  

Much like with Fletcher, it's encouraging that his plate discipline is robust.  The 1:1 BB:K ratio is certainly encouraging.

[eaterfan]

Ward kind of reminds me of later career Cowart numbers wise. Good AVG, very good OBP, solid power, and scouts aren't sold. He doesn't have the previous failure of Cowart but doesn't have the defense either.

Is this a crazy assessment?

[Vlad27Trout27]

The thing with Cowart was that he struggled at AA, while Ward has pretty much dominated AA. Personally AA is the golden standard for a prospect, due to the fact that that's were most of the talent is in Milb. If a prospect does good at AA there is a really good chance he's a MLB level player.

Do to his ability to work counts and plate discipline, he''' reach his level at least as an average starting 3rd baseman. 

I've compared him to an Ex- Angel, David Freese.   

[Warfarin]

Suarez starting today in Mobile.  Usually, he would start after Canning, but Canning did not start this time.  Any news regarding Canning?  Just skipping his start to give him some rest?

[Warfarin]

17 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

The thing with Cowart was that he struggled at AA, while Ward has pretty much dominated AA. Personally AA is the golden standard for a prospect, due to the fact that that's were most of the talent is in Milb. If a prospect does good at AA there is a really good chance he's a MLB level player.

Do to his ability to work counts and plate discipline, he''' reach his level at least as an average starting 3rd baseman. 

I've compared him to an Ex- Angel, David Freese.   

David Freeze would be a good outcome for Ward.  With Fletcher and Ward producing right now, and with Cozart essentially able to flex over to cover either position, at least we have some options moving forward.

On a side note, I like what they're doing with Cowart in AAA.  Cowart will be out of options next year, and there's a good chance he gets DFA'd in a roster crunch.  To give him the best shot possible though, they're giving him reps in the OF.  If he can cover 2B/3B/SS (emergency)/OF, then at the very least, he's incredibly versatile and gives himself a shot of being a reserve.  I still think his future is not with us, but at least he's positioning himself to get a shot.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Seeing But Hader has been able to do this year, I'm wondering if Suarez was put in the BP and would  he be able do something similar?

few reason i believe so:

looked up there minor league career number, both BB and K rates and Suarez has had the better numbers and ERA 

Suarez has Better control  

Suarez  at-least has an 3-pitch mix that's above average to plus (improved Fb is a 60 grade pitch, Change is 60) . While Hader had a 2-pitch mix, both being plus.

Difference:

Hader has size, 6'3 while Suarez is 5'11

Hader has a mid to upper 90s Fb. Suarez is bad either, at 92-94 but has hit 95 a few times and could get an increase a bit in a BP conclude.

 

Conclusion:

I believe he can, his strike-out has never dropped down below 10 since coming state-side, His change-up is filthy, with a tick in velo and his good command, he has the chance to dominate hitters.       

 

[stormngt]

43 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

The thing with Cowart was that he struggled at AA, while Ward has pretty much dominated AA. Personally AA is the golden standard for a prospect, due to the fact that that's were most of the talent is in Milb. If a prospect does good at AA there is a really good chance he's a MLB level player.

Do to his ability to work counts and plate discipline, he''' reach his level at least as an average starting 3rd baseman. 

I've compared him to an Ex- Angel, David Freese.   

Interesting comment about AA and prediction of MLB success....didn't Brandon Wood struggle in AA as well?

[Vlad27Trout27]

2 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Interesting comment about AA and prediction of MLB success....didn't Brandon Wood struggle in AA as well?

Wood didn't really struggle that much In AA, the issue with him was he had a K rate near 30% and walk rate of 10% in AA. With Ward his BB and K rate are pretty similar, which is the big difference between them.

[Inside Pitch]

52 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

The thing with Cowart was that he struggled at AA, while Ward has pretty much dominated AA. Personally AA is the golden standard for a prospect, due to the fact that that's were most of the talent is in Milb. If a prospect does good at AA there is a really good chance he's a MLB level player.

Don't stop your comparisons there -- Cowart struggles in AA came at age 21 22, in an even more pitcher friendly park than Mobile..   To his was in AAA at age 23 and made his MLB debut later that season.  Ward's breakout offensive season is coming at age 24, so when comping him to Cowart, it bears notice he's older, and as a former college player much more experienced.

Edited May 20, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Seeing But Hader has been able to do this year, I'm wondering if Suarez was put in the BP and would  he be able do something similar?

few reason i believe so:

looked up there minor league career number, both BB and K rates and Suarez has had the better numbers and ERA 

Suarez has Better control  

Suarez  at-least has an 3-pitch mix that's above average to plus (improved Fb is a 60 grade pitch, Change is 60) . While Hader had a 2-pitch mix, both being plus.

Difference:

Hader has size, 6'3 while Suarez is 5'11

Hader has a mid to upper 90s Fb. Suarez is bad either, at 92-94 but has hit 95 a few times and could get an increase a bit in a BP conclude.

 

Conclusion:

I believe he can, his strike-out has never dropped down below 10 since coming state-side, His change-up is filthy, with a tick in velo and his good command, he has the chance to dominate hitters.       

 

tough comp for me to get on board with.  Suarez pitches with good stuff but relies on deception and pitchability whereas Hader is a guy who's finally learned how to harness tremendous raw stuff.  

[Docwaukee]

How bout a Roy Oswalt comp for Canning?  He came up at age 23 and worked some out of the pen until he became a starter later in the year.  

[GrittyVeterans]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

How bout a Roy Oswalt comp for Canning?  He came up at age 23 and worked some out of the pen until he became a starter later in the year.  

Like that comp. one thing I noticed is Canning has a weird delivery. Not very fluid looking

[tdawg87]

12 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Marsh in his A+ debut - 1/5, 2k.  Left 6 runners on.  

Franchise over.

[Angelsjunky]

41 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

How bout a Roy Oswalt comp for Canning?  He came up at age 23 and worked some out of the pen until he became a starter later in the year.  

I forgot about Roy Oswalt. That approach used to be far more common: Start a pitching prospect in the bullpen, then gradually get them into starting. I don't know why it isn't used more frequently.

[Warfarin]

Adell has just crushed his 6th HR.  IE just around the corner?  

[Warfarin]

And in other news, Fletch just hit a HR!  His 5th of the year.  I know, #PCL and all, but still, pretty neat to see him tearing the cover off the ball this season

[rafibomb]

56 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Adell has just crushed his 6th HR.  IE just around the corner?  

Every time I read this thread.....

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

Adell has just crushed his 6th HR.  IE just around the corner?  

[Vlad27Trout27]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

tough comp for me to get on board with.  Suarez pitches with good stuff but relies on deception and pitchability whereas Hader is a guy who's finally learned how to harness tremendous raw stuff.  

I agreed that this is tough comp for Suarez, But Hader also relies on deception while his FB is between 93-96, that added deception make's it look a 100 plus from the left side.\

If this was last year, with Suarez Velo being in the upper 80's he would need to rely on pitch-ability and control, Now he has a plus FB from the left side including deception , he always has had the filthy change and control/command. 

Looking at his career milb numbers so far he has always been an strike-out pitcher even when he wasn't in the low to mid 90s. Now all 3 of his pitches are much improved and a few years back, read scouting report by Taylor Blake ward, just saying that Suarez may have an upside of a number 2.   

I would just say that the potential is there.

[Vlad27Trout27]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Adell has just crushed his 6th HR.  IE just around the corner?  

If he does get promoted soon, we way be looking at Adell being in the majors by his age 21!!!!!!!

[Angelsjunky]

My guess on Adell's timeline is:

2018 (19): A/A+

2019 (20): A+/AA

2020 (21): AA/AAA/Majors

2021 (22): Majors

So he'll get a taste in 2020 at age 21, but his first full season will be 2021.

[Warfarin]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

My guess on Adell's timeline is:

2018 (19): A/A+

2019 (20): A+/AA

2020 (21): AA/AAA/Majors

2021 (22): Majors

So he'll get a taste in 2020 at age 21, but his first full season will be 2021.

Looks great to me.  I am thinking Marsh will ultimately be half a season or so ahead of Adell in terms of timeline.  Could see Trout in center, Marsh in RF, Adell in LF by 2021, with the possibility that maybe Marsh takes over CF for Trout, depending on defense, etc.  We'll have to figure out Upton's place in the pecking order, but certainly it's a good problem to have too much talent in one spot.  Maybe Ohtani learns to play 1B, such that he plays the field maybe twice a week, freeing up DH for Upton, who'll also serve as the backup OF, too.

While I realize Pujols' contract runs through 2021, I am hoping that by then, he is mercifully either retired (unlikely) or released.