The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Docwaukee]

[Docwaukee]

David MacKinnon with a hr as well tonight to go along with 3 walks.  Time to move him up.  

[Pheenom07]

Hermosillo also hit for a cycle, wouldn’t mind giving him a cup of coffee.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/michael-hermosillo-hits-first-cycle-grand-slam-with-salt-lake-bees/c-274797342

[Chuck]

6 hours ago, Pheenom07 said:

Hermosillo also hit for a cycle, wouldn’t mind giving him a cup of coffee.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/michael-hermosillo-hits-first-cycle-grand-slam-with-salt-lake-bees/c-274797342

I think either Hermosillo or Blash will get the call soon to replace Chris Young.

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I think either Hermosillo lr Blash will get the call soon to replace Chris Young.

I'm hesitant to bring either up unless they're going to get consistent at-bats, and I think they'll give Kole opportunities through at least the next homestand before they start weighing options. I'd rather those two stay hot at AAA and get their reps and then get a real shot come June when a true chance to grab playing time would emerge. We'll see Young get a stab at a platoon with Kole first as well.

[Inside Pitch]

12 hours ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

I hear you, K rate is definitely important but it's a far cry from guaranteed success. See Marco Estrada.

I just don't see Gatto making it out of AA.

No one thing guarantees success, but there is no denying that K rate is the common predictor of success for a SP.

In Estrada you're trying to find an outlier but the reality is there are far fewer Robin Roberts types that didn't K anyone and had success than guys who went the other way.   But as far as Estrada goes..  if Joe Gatto has a five year peak of 110 ERA+ in MLB or even a career ERA+ of 101, he would be considered a massive success.  Also, the big difference between the two -- GB%...  Estrada has always been a HR machine whereas that's been the one thing Gatto has always done an amazing job of limiting.   Honestly, the GB rate and HR suppression are the only reasons I had not punted on him completely...  

Gatto has only been doing what he is currently for what -- 3-4 weeks.   So it's far too early make any predictions as to where he goes from here..  but again..  it's a marked departure from what he had done previously.   Still don't get why you have such a hard time admitting that.   But if the K rate is real and he keeps making hitters pound the ball into the ground it ups his projections quite a bit.

You don't think he will pan out, that's fine ..  I too am a skeptic, but he's definitely doing it a bit differently than in the past.   For me the question is .. will he keep it up.   Nothing in his past makes one believe he will -- but that's where the tools start to talk and the math ends.

 

Edited May 2, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

12 hours ago, rafibomb said:

You'd think that the call to Inland Empire should be coming soon.

They are better off keeping him in low A for now -- the walk rates are way up, the growing power is nice but he's been running an elevated K rate too.   I know the strikeouts are commonplace these days but, I think they may want to see him bring it down from the near 30% he's currently at to somewhere closer to where it was last season.

[eaterfan]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

They are better off keeping him in low A for now -- the walk rates are way up, the growing power is nice but he's been running an elevated K rate too.   I know the strikeouts are commonplace these days but, I think they may want to see him bring it down from the near 30% he's currently at to somewhere closer to where it was last season.

Agreed. But for context, a week or two ago the K rate was between 23-25% depending on the day. The samples are so small this time of year that a good or bad game can really change some stats. That's also a reason to not promote him based on a hot start.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Agreed. But for context, a week or two ago the K rate was between 23-25% depending on the day. The samples are so small this time of year that a good or bad game can really change some stats. That's also a reason to not promote him based on a hot start.

I've always been unsure what option is best.  I have a buddy in baseball who is a huge believer in pushing a guy up while he's hot until he reaches a level where he's punched in the face.  He believes its a big confidence builder for the player to have him at least taste success and get the feeling of progression -- believes it makes him hunger for it.   He admits there is a risk a guy is just raking due to being fed FBs while there is no book on him but he dismisses that as minor due to his belief that being able to catch up with FBs is key.

So, there is def a case to be made for why being aggressive with him would be a plus.  

[Warfarin]

19 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I've always been unsure what option is best.  I have a buddy in baseball who is a huge believer in pushing a guy up while he's hot until he reaches a level where he's punched in the face.  He believes its a big confidence builder for the player to have him at least taste success and get the feeling of progression -- believes it makes him hunger for it.   He admits there is a risk a guy is just raking due to being fed FBs while there is no book on him but he dismisses that as minor due to his belief that being able to catch up with FBs is key.

So, there is def a case to be made for why being aggressive with him would be a plus.  

I do think with Marsh, it's likely he's up in hi-A by the ASB at the latest, so long as he maintains the BB rate and keeps his K rate respectable.  I envision his timeline to be like this:

2018: low-A / hi-A

2019:  hi-A / AA

2020:  AA/AAA/maybe September call-up?

I think we see Marsh in 2020 and Adell in 2021.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

I've always been unsure what option is best.  I have a buddy in baseball who is a huge believer in pushing a guy up while he's hot until he reaches a level where he's punched in the face.  He believes its a big confidence builder for the player to have him at least taste success and get the feeling of progression -- believes it makes him hunger for it.   He admits there is a risk a guy is just raking due to being fed FBs while there is no book on him but he dismisses that as minor due to his belief that being able to catch up with FBs is key.

So, there is def a case to be made for why being aggressive with him would be a plus.  

I think the aggressive approach with Marsh would work well.  It's weird because he's been on a bit of a hot streak but he's whiffed 10 times in his last 5 games with no walks.  So i do think it's a bit early to move him up now, but they might anyway.  There's no one in the OF at A+ to really block him.  

[eaterfan]

23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think the aggressive approach with Marsh would work well.  It's weird because he's been on a bit of a hot streak but he's whiffed 10 times in his last 5 games with no walks.  So i do think it's a bit early to move him up now, but they might anyway.  There's no one in the OF at A+ to really block him.  

I may be talking out my ass here, but from what I've heard about Marsh it's really only refinement that will keep him from the majors. I think he has a pretty good hit tool and athleticism. I think his approach at the plate will be what determined if he becomes Brandon Wood (one extreme) or Larry Walker (the other extreme). The strike outs and walks are what I'd pay most attention to. His power and hit tool can mask a bad approach for awhile. That being said, it's not like he'll stop working on his approach as he rises through the system.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

No one thing guarantees success, but there is no denying that K rate is the common predictor of success for a SP.

In Estrada you're trying to find an outlier but the reality is there are far fewer Robin Roberts types that didn't K anyone and had success than guys who went the other way.   But as far as Estrada goes..  if Joe Gatto has a five year peak of 110 ERA+ in MLB or even a career ERA+ of 101, he would be considered a massive success.  Also, the big difference between the two -- GB%...  Estrada has always been a HR machine whereas that's been the one thing Gatto has always done an amazing job of limiting.   Honestly, the GB rate and HR suppression are the only reasons I had not punted on him completely...  

Gatto has only been doing what he is currently for what -- 3-4 weeks.   So it's far too early make any predictions as to where he goes from here..  but again..  it's a marked departure from what he had done previously.   Still don't get why you have such a hard time admitting that.   But if the K rate is real and he keeps making hitters pound the ball into the ground it ups his projections quite a bit.

You don't think he will pan out, that's fine ..  I too am a skeptic, but he's definitely doing it a bit differently than in the past.   For me the question is .. will he keep it up.   Nothing in his past makes one believe he will -- but that's where the tools start to talk and the math ends.

 

Gatto has made three starts where he's given up 0er in 16ip with 21k and 7 hits/6 bb.  Then two other starts where he's pitched 7 innings and given up 16er on 19h and 5bb with 7k.  

Both poor starts came on the road in launching pads, but clearly, he didn't have his best stuff.  

Scotty has seen him a bunch so I trust his comments that when he's off, he's misses up and gets pounded.  

But I do think he'll end up in the majors at some point. 

[Docwaukee]

26 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I may be talking out my ass here, but from what I've heard about Marsh it's really only refinement that will keep him from the majors. I think he has a pretty good hit tool and athleticism. I think his approach at the plate will be what determined if he becomes Brandon Wood (one extreme) or Larry Walker (the other extreme). The strike outs and walks are what I'd pay most attention to. His power and hit tool can mask a bad approach for awhile. That being said, it's not like he'll stop working on his approach as he rises through the system.

that's another good point on him.  Supposedly he's a gym/field rat.  Constantly working to improve.  

[Second Base]

Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell both had two glaring weaknesses and a few unquestionable strengths to their game entering this season.

We know that both are very good hitters for their age. They're both very fast and strong and they both can play top notch defense. They are great, young prospects.

We also know that both didn't see a ton of pitches they didn't like last year. They expanded their zones, weren't working walks, would run on hot and cold streaks, etc.  They were undisciplined, unrefined. The fact that their overall lines looked so good speaks more about their ability to swing a bat, but not of their ability to adjust.

Marsh and Adell should not be promoted until they show that their ability to adjust, ability to work pitchers and at bats has exceeded that of A Ball.

That hasn't happened yet.

It doesn't matter if you're hitting .400 in A Ball like Vlad and Bichette last year, teams want to see growth.

Talent is NOT an indicator that someone should be promoted. Chevy Clarke and Ryan Boldeb were oozing talent.

Production isn't either. 

Growth is measured in adjustments.

Both Marsh and Adell have shown more ability to work a walk than they did last year. But this may be just an anomaly. It's early, pitchers are having trouble throwing strikes in A Ball right now. They're also showing that last year's strengths are still strengths.

But there is only one indicator that will inevitably answer your questions as to whether or not they're ready. Time. Give them time. Time to show growthor time to struggle, time to work past the struggles, time to grow, time to develop.

Everyone is so eager to see them promoted but this is a 19 and 20 year old kid. They won't be major leaguers at 20. There are so few of those anyway, so let's stop trying to force that narrative. 

They aren't ready yet. Marsh needs time on the field, and Adell isn't even healthy right now. And it isn't as if Marsh is clearly so far above the competition in A Ball anyway. Sure, he's doing a solid job, but he isn't tearing them apart the way that Trout and Buxton did.

If the Angels promote them both next week, great. But they'd be equally as justified in keeping both Marsh and Adell in A Ball for the entire season regardless of production.

So patience. They haven't shown ANYTHING yet. They will though.

[Dick B Back]

Working a walk is not Angels baseball.

[Make Angels Great Again]

Well, Marsh's walk rate went from 4.7% to 14.9% from last season to this season, that seems significant.

His K rate did also go way up to 28.7% after being at 18.2%, but that's probably a consequence of him figuring out the strike zone. That should go down over time. Looks like he's making the adjustments to me.

[GrittyVeterans]

I want to see Adell make more contact before I get really excited about him. 19 strikeouts in 55 plate appearances is a little much. Too early to be really concerned about it but I want to see him adjust

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Dick B Back said:

Working a walk is not Angels baseball.

I know this is probably sarcasm, but I figured I would provide the following info just for kicks

AA - The mobile bay bears lead the southern league in walks 

A+ - The Inland Empire 66ers lead the Cal league in walks

A - The Burlington Bees are second in the Midwest league in walks

Rookie - Last year, the Orem Owlz lead the pioneer league in walks (372 in 76 games and the next closest was 50 away)

 

 

[Docwaukee]

16 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think Chuck got it, but this was for David Fletcher.  

.370/.422/.600 with a 3.6% k rate.  wRC+ of 164 (that's park adjusted fyi)

[Dick B Back]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I know this is probably sarcasm, but I figured I would provide the following info just for kicks

AA - The mobile bay bears lead the southern league in walks 

A+ - The Inland Empire 66ers lead the Cal league in walks

A - The Burlington Bees are second in the Midwest league in walks

Rookie - Last year, the Orem Owlz lead the pioneer league in walks (372 in 76 games and the next closest was 50 away)

 

 

So what you’re saying is that the minor league coaches will get these “fixed” before getting called up to the show.

[Second Base]

Walks definitely came into focus during the Dipoto regime.  He never drafted properly or had any international presence which hurt, but Dipoto at least flipped it from the Reagins era.

Eppler has a much more complex more complete organizational philosophy. Dipoto over-simplified it and believed walks = on base percentage (in my opinion).  Dipoto was a big believer in the 5+ pitch at bat. 

Whereas Eppler has encouraged swinging at first pitch strikes, taking walks, picking your pitch, and swinging hard at it.

So far the results favor Eppler.

Our hitters are more aggressive, but are doing more damage too. I think this is at least partly what is causing the uptick in walks. Our hitters are less predictable, more dangerous and pitchers are being more careful, pitching around them.

It's just a theory that what reflects what I believed is a more well-rounded approach to hitting and prospect development in general.

[Angel Oracle]

58 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think Chuck got it, but this was for David Fletcher.  

.370/.422/.600 with a 3.6% k rate.  wRC+ of 164 (that's park adjusted fyi)

Ready to take over 2B during ST 2019?

[HaloNArizona]

14 hours ago, Pheenom07 said:

Hermosillo also hit for a cycle, wouldn’t mind giving him a cup of coffee.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/michael-hermosillo-hits-first-cycle-grand-slam-with-salt-lake-bees/c-274797342

Grand Slam with that cycle please

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

Walks definitely came into focus during the Dipoto regime.  He never drafted properly or had any international presence which hurt, but Dipoto at least flipped it from the Reagins era.

Eppler has a much more complex more complete organizational philosophy. Dipoto over-simplified it and believed walks = on base percentage (in my opinion).  Dipoto was a big believer in the 5+ pitch at bat. 

Whereas Eppler has encouraged swinging at first pitch strikes, taking walks, picking your pitch, and swinging hard at it.

So far the results favor Eppler.

Our hitters are more aggressive, but are doing more damage too. I think this is at least partly what is causing the uptick in walks. Our hitters are less predictable, more dangerous and pitchers are being more careful, pitching around them.

It's just a theory that what reflects what I believed is a more well-rounded approach to hitting and prospect development in general.

I agree with this.  

Something I've noticed from watching teams like the Yankees ie Eppler's former home, is that they tend to kill the fastball.  Now, maybe that's a consequence of being able to afford more talented players, but I think it also has to do with their organizational philosophy on plate appearance management (that's a new buzz phrase I just made up).  

And Eppler has brought that to the halos.  Yes, walks are good, but it's not just about walks.  The technology is there to provide every player how they fare vs pitches at different speeds in different zones.  Keyholing those pitches until you've got two strikes.  Aim small miss small.