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The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread


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43 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

They couldn't....    When Jerry signed Baldo, he locked them out of the Vladdy sweepstakes.   By most accounts the previous regime was on Vladdy Jr..   But the purge came and Dipoto personally scouted Baldoquin....    Thus ended the dream.

you're making me angry all over again.  

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2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

They couldn't....    When Jerry signed Baldo, he locked them out of the Vladdy sweepstakes.   By most accounts the previous regime was on Vladdy Jr..   But the purge came and Dipoto personally scouted Baldoquin....    Thus ended the dream.

What i meant was Im surprised arte didnt intervene, knowing they would be out on Vlad Jr by signing baldoquin. I would have assumed Moreno and Vlad Sr had already talked about it over beers at some point with a handshake agreement. But who knows, maybe moreno didnt realize they would be locked out by signing baldo.

I remember at the time, baldo was out of nowhere....with the consensus being that we did it to lock up his friend moncada, who was on a lot of radars.

When the news came out, I was in tempe at an ex players home (he was playing somewhere else). That was the general thinking, that moncada would be signed within a day or two of the announcement.

Dipoto was just so bad...

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and don't get me wrong.  I love that about Trout.  He's all baseball all the time.  If he never gave another interview, that would be fine with me.  

That works in our favor actually.  No one in the OC gives two craps about whether Mike is a good interview.  He'll get hazed for that in other large markets and I think that matters to him.  

He can be who he is with the halos.  If another team pays him a king's ransom, they're gonna expect more whereas we don't care.  

You hear that Mike?  Stay and play.  Enjoy yourself.  We won't be overly critical.  You'll be highly judged in other markets.  

Can you imagine the flack Pujols would be getting in NY right now?  

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Again, I'm trying to preach not getting carried away with Adell just yet.  The biggest reason he's in AA already is because his natural giftedness is just that superior to those around him.  The ability to adjust is ultimately what dictates success for any player in baseball.  Last year, he didn't show the ability to adjust yet, and that's largely because he's only 19 and it was his first full season of action.  He wasn't capable of succeeding in AA yet, because despite the extremely loud tools, he lacked refinement in his game. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Adell spend the entire season in AA this year, and struggle for most of it.  There's no question the tools play up, but the ability to adjust seems to be something that is developed over time and experience for everyone not named Mike Trout. 

While we all think Adell will be ready for the start of 2020 (some of us think halfway through 2019), I'm thinking it's more like halfway through 2020 and then ready for a full time gig in 2021, when Adell is 22.  Because anything better than that would be out of the ordinary....the type we saw with Acuna and Soto this year, and Trout and Harper a few years back.  Those guys aren't the rule, they're the exception. 

Adell has the talent to be the exception, but there's no way I'd feel comfortable predicting that. 

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I think you are over-compensating a bit, Scotty. Acuna and Trout were stars at 20, Soto at 19. Adell is probably a lesser talent than all three, but I think it possible that he could be at least major league ready by the time he's 21, or 2020.

That said, I agree he'll spend most of 2019 in AA, but think he'll adjust just fine. He'll play well enough that the Angels will be tempted to promote to AAA sometime during the season, with possibly a cup o coffee in September, but more likely 2020. He's a good candidate for a May 2020 call-up.

 

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46 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think you are over-compensating a bit, Scotty. Acuna and Trout were stars at 20, Soto at 19. Adell is probably a lesser talent than all three, but I think it possible that he could be at least major league ready by the time he's 21, or 2020.

That said, I agree he'll spend most of 2019 in AA, but think he'll adjust just fine. He'll play well enough that the Angels will be tempted to promote to AAA sometime during the season, with possibly a cup o coffee in September, but more likely 2020. He's a good candidate for a May 2020 call-up.

 

I literally just said he's a mid-2020 call up. 

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Ok, fair enough. I was referring to your view that he won’t have a regular gig until he’s 22, which is 2-3 years later than the other guys you mention. Also consider that all of those guys, with the possible exception of Harper, were “insta-stars.” So not only were they given regular gigs 2-3 years before your Adell projection, but they were stars on arrival.

Mostly nitpicking, though - and of course we’ll know more a couple months into 2019, to see if Adell returns to the fast-track. He could be given a major league job as soon as mid-2019, but more realistically sometime in 2020. 2021 would be conservative.

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Soto is the ultra freak of anyone we've seen for a long time.  .360+ minor league avg. with crazy bat to ball skills and all at age 19.  He turns 20 tomorrow.  He's otherworldly.  

Acuna is incredible but not on Soto's level.  Still, he's got excellent bat to ball skills with tremendous power and speed.  There's some swing and miss there though.  Adell is closer to him than Soto.  The big difference is the trajectory one Acuna hit AA/AAA.  He absolutely took off where as Adell was good in A+/AA but not at either of those guy's level.  

Would it surprise me if Adell took his game to another level next year?  For sure not.  But for him I see a bit more of that natural progression young players deal with.  He'll likely be very good in AA/AAA next year with a late year call up and some early struggles or treading water.  I don't think he's got the hit tool of those other guys.  He'll be an All Star type player at some point but it might take a couple years similar to a guy like George Springer.  Although ultimately, I think he ends up a bit better than him.  

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I agree with every word of that, Doc, except for Acuna not being on Soto's level. In terms of age development and bat only, yes. But as an overall player, I like Acuna at least as much - he's more of a well-rounded player. Soto is more of a Vlad Jr type: amazing bat, not-so-amazing defensively.

Adell is a step below, probably comparable to Eloy Jimenez. I see him ultimately being more like a slightly better Springer or a more consistent Justin Upton. Like you said, a multiple time All-Star but probably not an MVP candidate.

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree with every word of that, Doc, except for Acuna not being on Soto's level. In terms of age development and bat only, yes. But as an overall player, I like Acuna at least as much - he's more of a well-rounded player. Soto is more of a Vlad Jr type: amazing bat, not-so-amazing defensively.

Adell is a step below, probably comparable to Eloy Jimenez. I see him ultimately being more like a slightly better Springer or a more consistent Justin Upton. Like you said, a multiple time All-Star but probably not an MVP candidate.

I dont' think Adell has even begun to tap into that speed of his yet.  Both Upton and Springer are fast enough to take the extra bag and swipe you 15 bags a year, but if given the green light, Adell could steal 30+.  He's not as quick to get under way as someone like Trout, but at full speed there aren't many prospects that can match him.  

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Acuna, Soto and Vlad are the future of baseball. These guys are all going to be great.

Adell reminds me of players like Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield and Dale Murphy - regular All-Stars but not quite MVPs (Dawson didn't deserve his). Like those guys I could see Adell being a 30-30 guy. What will keep him from joining the above three is that he won't hit for a great average. But I suppose you never know; if Adell hits .300 he's going to be great, but .270-.280 is probably more likely.

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40 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Acuna, Soto and Vlad are the future of baseball. These guys are all going to be great.

Adell reminds me of players like Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield and Dale Murphy - regular All-Stars but not quite MVPs (Dawson didn't deserve his). Like those guys I could see Adell being a 30-30 guy. What will keep him from joining the above three is that he won't hit for a great average. But I suppose you never know; if Adell hits .300 he's going to be great, but .270-.280 is probably more likely.

For all we know, Adell could be the best of the bunch.

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Acuna, Soto and Vlad are the future of baseball. These guys are all going to be great.

Adell reminds me of players like Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield and Dale Murphy - regular All-Stars but not quite MVPs (Dawson didn't deserve his). Like those guys I could see Adell being a 30-30 guy. What will keep him from joining the above three is that he won't hit for a great average. But I suppose you never know; if Adell hits .300 he's going to be great, but .270-.280 is probably more likely.

Murphy won two MVPs, not sure he deserved it or not, but he won them.  I know that there were better WAR players than Dawson, but man did he have a great year.  It is hard to say that a guy that hit 47 home runs, back then, didn't deserve an MVP.  

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2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Murphy won two MVPs, not sure he deserved it or not, but he won them.  I know that there were better WAR players than Dawson, but man did he have a great year.  It is hard to say that a guy that hit 47 home runs, back then, didn't deserve an MVP.  

Murphy was like Trout in the way they were great players on crappy teams.

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