The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Angel Oracle]

Now that Jones has a year at 2B under his belt, he could really take off in 2019.   He’s still only 22 in 2019.

[totdprods]

45 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Now that Jones has a year at 2B under his belt, he could really take off in 2019.   He’s still only 22 in 2019.

I could see him having a  2018 Ward-like season next year. Similar discipline and power coming into AA. 

Could be in AAA midseason and in discussion for 2020 2B. 

[Docwaukee]

54 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Now that Jones has a year at 2B under his belt, he could really take off in 2019.   He’s still only 22 in 2019.

 

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I could see him having a  2018 Ward-like season next year. Similar discipline and power coming into AA. 

Could be in AAA midseason and in discussion for 2020 2B. 

agreed.  he's got 5bb to 3k in his first 13 PA for Mesa in the AFL.   Ward is an interesting comparison.  

He's actually only 21 and will be for most of the 2019 season.  

The key for Jones is how his hit tool develops.  They've talked about his swing being a bit mechanical but that could just be him going through adjustment periods where he's made some changes.  He'd probably never admit to this, but I am sure his transition to 2b affected his hitting last year.  He probably spend the vast majority of his practice time on defense.  

His peripherals were very good in 2018 even though his slash line wasn't as impressive as the year before.  That babip of .291 should be around .320-.330 for a guy with his speed.  

I feel like he's pretty tough to comp with current or past major leaguers at this point.  Maybe like a Kelly Johnson.  Brian Dozier is also interesting in that his power didn't develop until pretty late.  Logan Forsythe?  

[UndertheHalo]

Who dis ?

Also, I like how theres just some dude hanging out on the mound. 

Edited October 13, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Inside Pitch]

14 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Who dis ?

Also, I like how theres just some dude hanging out on the mound. 

LOL -- and where is the ump.    Is that guy calling the balls and strikes?  

[Vlad27Trout27]

15 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Who dis ?

Also, I like how theres just some dude hanging out on the mound. 

Don't know if its the video quality, but the bakls is exploding when he throws.

[Angelsjunky]

As with Brandon Marsh, 2019 will tell us a lot about Jones: whether he can be a future star or is more likely to be an average regular. 2018 was a year of adjusting to a new level and back to 2B. Another mediocre year with the bat and I think we have to start tempering expectations.

That said, I'm reasonably optimistic that we'll see Jones take it up a notch.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

 

agreed.  he's got 5bb to 3k in his first 13 PA for Mesa in the AFL.   Ward is an interesting comparison.  

He's actually only 21 and will be for most of the 2019 season.  

The key for Jones is how his hit tool develops.  They've talked about his swing being a bit mechanical but that could just be him going through adjustment periods where he's made some changes.  He'd probably never admit to this, but I am sure his transition to 2b affected his hitting last year.  He probably spend the vast majority of his practice time on defense.  

His peripherals were very good in 2018 even though his slash line wasn't as impressive as the year before.  That babip of .291 should be around .320-.330 for a guy with his speed.  

I feel like he's pretty tough to comp with current or past major leaguers at this point.  Maybe like a Kelly Johnson.  Brian Dozier is also interesting in that his power didn't develop until pretty late.  Logan Forsythe?  

Jones is right at that age where prospects make a giant leap forward in production by muscling up a bit. And I doubt the front office would've had him change positions if they had plans of trading him, as the switch to 2B was bound to take his focus away from hitting and temporarily lower his profile as a prospect.

As good as Fletcher and Rengifo have been, if Jones makes good on that potential of his, no one is going to block him from the majors. Not too often do 2B come with 20/20 power/speed and higher OBP to boot.

[Angel Oracle]

Depth is good.  Depth is real good.

[Angelsjunky]

On 10/13/2018 at 11:31 AM, Scotty@AW said:

Jones is right at that age where prospects make a giant leap forward in production by muscling up a bit. And I doubt the front office would've had him change positions if they had plans of trading him, as the switch to 2B was bound to take his focus away from hitting and temporarily lower his profile as a prospect.

As good as Fletcher and Rengifo have been, if Jones makes good on that potential of his, no one is going to block him from the majors. Not too often do 2B come with 20/20 power/speed and higher OBP to boot.

Jones definitely has the highest upside of the three, with Rengifo second and then Fletcher third. I wonder if the floor, though, is inverted: Fletcher with the highest floor, then Rengifo, then Jones. That said, all three will at least be very good utility players, Fletch and Rengy as 2B-SS-3B, and Jones as an interesting 2B-OF hybrid.

 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Jones definitely has the highest upside of the three, with Rengifo second and then Fletcher third. I wonder if the floor, though, is inverted: Fletcher with the highest floor, then Rengifo, then Jones. That said, all three will at least be very good utility players, Fletch and Rengy as 2B-SS-3B, and Jones as an interesting 2B-OF hybrid.

 

As far as their likely outcome, I'd go with Rengifo. This is of course based on full playing time, which isn't likely, but Jones seems like he'll be a Jon Villar type, someone that hits 15 HR and swipes 30 bags, but only hits .260 which keeps the OBP down at .330 or so. The defense would grow to simply be acceptable, not advanced, but won't hurt you either. Fletcher, I think he's exactly what he showed last year. There won't be much of a learning curve with Fletch. He's going to hit .280, and get on base around a .320 clip, with no discernible power, and decent speed, but not SB type. His value comes in his glove. Fletcher would be a gold glove level starting 2B. Rengifo would grow into 10 HR a year, swipe 30 bags, probably similar to Jones but with less power. But his defense would be a step up over Jones, and his BA and OBP would be the best of the group.

I anticipate Rengifo being ready to take over as the starting 2B beginning in 2020, but I'd still hold onto Jones next year if I can help it, just in case he takes a huge leap forward and we suddenly have a 30/30 type of player. 

Still, I like Rengifo. I think he's a faster Cesar Henrnandez. Probably hit .280/.370 and 30 SB. 

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

As far as their likely outcome, I'd go with Rengifo. This is of course based on full playing time, which isn't likely, but Jones seems like he'll be a Jon Villar type, someone that hits 15 HR and swipes 30 bags, but only hits .260 which keeps the OBP down at .330 or so. The defense would grow to simply be acceptable, not advanced, but won't hurt you either. Fletcher, I think he's exactly what he showed last year. There won't be much of a learning curve with Fletch. He's going to hit .280, and get on base around a .320 clip, with no discernible power, and decent speed, but not SB type. His value comes in his glove. Fletcher would be a gold glove level starting 2B. Rengifo would grow into 10 HR a year, swipe 30 bags, probably similar to Jones but with less power. But his defense would be a step up over Jones, and his BA and OBP would be the best of the group.

I anticipate Rengifo being ready to take over as the starting 2B beginning in 2020, but I'd still hold onto Jones next year if I can help it, just in case he takes a huge leap forward and we suddenly have a 30/30 type of player. 

Still, I like Rengifo. I think he's a faster Cesar Henrnandez. Probably hit .280/.370 and 30 SB. 

Jones might have the widest range of outcomes, but yeah - maybe Rengifo has the best likely outcome.

I think you're being conservative about Rengifo's readiness for the starting gig. Remember, he held his own in AAA already; does he need a year and a half? I don't think so. I think he'll get the call if and when someone gets injured, and will work his way in as a super utility player this year. My hope is that he impresses enough that he's lined up to be the starting 2B on Opening Day of 2020, but with 200+ major league PA already during 2019.

But I agree with your general numbers. I find myself more excited about Rengifo because of his on-base/speed combo that could make him the best leadoff hitter we've had since Figgins. But I also think I tend to over-value performance vs. projectible tools, so am probably over-compensating when I seesaw back to Jones (I keep flip-flopping them on my own top 30).

 

 

[Second Base]

32 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Jones might have the widest range of outcomes, but yeah - maybe Rengifo has the best likely outcome.

I think you're being conservative about Rengifo's readiness for the starting gig. Remember, he held his own in AAA already; does he need a year and a half? I don't think so. I think he'll get the call if and when someone gets injured, and will work his way in as a super utility player this year. My hope is that he impresses enough that he's lined up to be the starting 2B on Opening Day of 2020, but with 200+ major league PA already during 2019.

But I agree with your general numbers. I find myself more excited about Rengifo because of his on-base/speed combo that could make him the best leadoff hitter we've had since Figgins. But I also think I tend to over-value performance vs. projectible tools, so am probably over-compensating when I seesaw back to Jones (I keep flip-flopping them on my own top 30).

 

 

Rengifo's tools aren't that type that scouts go crazy over. But we've seen enough examples of the flaws in standard scouting preference. Not every great player is 6'2" 200 lbs. Sometimes they're 5'9" 170 lbs. 

From a straight scouting perspective, if I knew nothing else about them and only had a chance to watch them once or twice, of course I'd rank Jones higher. That's why most publications will rank him higher, they just not watch them enough to know the difference. Rengifo's performance wasn't a fluke. 

I'm more willing to trade Jones than Marsh though. If Jones likely outcome is Villar, Marsh's is Reddick. There's still a Blackmon element to him though. 

[Angelsjunky]

I'm not sure I get the Reddick comp, unless you are talking straight tools. But even then, Marsh seems to have much better plate discipline and will hit for a higher average (Reddick's career is .262 BA, 8.4 BB%). Marsh will also probably steal a few more bases. Reddick's about as average as can be. Maybe Reddick Plus?

From a numbers perspective, I could see Marsh being something like Rusty Greer - although translated to the current context, so lower BA. Maybe .290/.370/.480 with 20-25 HR and 15 SB a year. Or that's my hope. But I suspect Marsh wll be packaged in a trade and play most of his career elsewhere.

[Stradling]

Guys, there were less than 20 players in MLB last year with a .370 OBP, I highly doubt we would have three of them if we simply kept Rengifo and Marsh.  Might be time to temper those expectations just a little bit.  I know I am not a scout, but if they are going to be .370 OBP then they are untouchable, and they aren’t.  

[Second Base]

It would be interesting to do a study, of the players that get on base 37% of the time or better, what their minor league OBP looked like, and the guys that posted strong OBP numbers in the minors and carved out regular roles in the majors, what their OBP translated to. 

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

It would be interesting to do a study, of the players that get on base 37% of the time or better, what their minor league OBP looked like, and the guys that posted strong OBP numbers in the minors and carved out regular roles in the majors, what their OBP translated to. 

AL Players with OBP between .360 - .386 this season and their career totals

Altuve .386 - Minors .386 Majors .365

Choo .377 - Minors .386  Majors .378

Merrifield .367 - Minors .334 Majors .342

Smith .367 - Minors .376 Majors .346

Hicks .366 - Minors .380 Majors .328

Hanniger .366 - Minors .370 Majors .356

Benintendi .366 - Minors .392  Majors .359

Brantley .364 - Minors .387 Majors .351

Duffy .361 - Minors .386 Majors .337

Bogaerts .360 - Minors .373 Majors .343

 

Only Merrifield is an outlier. 

 

[Blarg]

Rengifo has a minor league career .365 OBP.  This season, across three minor league levels, he had a .399 obp.

He had the exact same amount of walks as strikeouts, 75/75.

[Angelsjunky]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

Guys, there were less than 20 players in MLB last year with a .370 OBP, I highly doubt we would have three of them if we simply kept Rengifo and Marsh.  Might be time to temper those expectations just a little bit.  I know I am not a scout, but if they are going to be .370 OBP then they are untouchable, and they aren’t.  

I hear your point, but to be fair we were talking about good but possible outcomes - so on the optimistic side of things, not the pobable or median outcome. For each of the three, I see something like in terms of outcomes with a decent chance of happening:

JONES

High: .280/.370/.460, 20 HR, 30 SB

Middle: .270/.350/.430, 15 HR, 25 SB

Low: .250/.330/.380, 10 HR, 20 SB

RENGIFO

High: .300/.400/.460, 15 HR, 40 SB

Middle: .280/.370/.420, 10 HR, 30 SB

Low: .250/.340/.350, 5 HR, 25 SB

MARSH

High: .290/.380/.500, 25 HR, 20 SB

Middle: .280/.350/.450, 15 HR, 15 SB

Low: .260/.330/.400, 10 HR, 10 SB

 

Those are all just pulled out of my ass, oviously, but the point is that there's a range for each, and the .370 OBP is somewhere north of middle range. Rengifo is the only one for whom I see .370 as middle; the others it is high.

[Angelsjunky]

What excites me about Rengifo is the combination of OBP and speed, something that seems more rare these days. Let's take a look...below is a list of players with .370+ OBP and 30+ SB, each year going back to 2010, and then every five years before that.

As you can see, there are eras in which OBP-SB combo waxed and waned. It was the norm during the Dead Ball Era (before (1919), then faded away during the 1920s and was virtually gone from the 1930s through the 1960s. The 1970s, perhaps with the dawn of astro turf, saw a resurgence, which lasted into the mid-90s, but then faded since then. It hasn't disappeared but is more rare.

(And yes, I somehow found myself spending an hour doing this, while watching The Wedding Singer for the first time; such is single life):

 

Here's the list:

2018 (3). Mookie Betts (.438, 30), Lorenzo Cain (.395, 30), Jose Ramirez (.388, 34)

2017 (1). Jose Altuve (.410, 32)

2016 (3).  Mike Trout (.441, 30), Paul Goldschmidt (.411, 32), Jose Altuve (.396, 30)

2015 (0). None

2014 (1). Jose Altuve (.377, 56)

2013 (1). Mike Trout (.432, 33)

2012 (2).: Mike Trout (.399, 49), Ryan Braun (.391, 30)

2011 (4).: Matt Kemp (.399, 40), Jacoby Ellsbury .376, 39), Jose Reyes (.384, 39), Ryan Braun (.397, 33), 

2010 (2). Brett Gardner (.383, 47), Hanley Ramirez (.378, 32)

2005 (1).: Bobby Abreu (.405, 31)

2000 (4). Luis Castillo (.418, 62), Johnny Damon (.382, 46), Rafael Furcal (.394, 40), Robert Alomar (.378, 39), 

1995 (8). Barry Bonds (.431, 31), Quilvio Veras (.384, 56), Barry Larkin (.394, 51), Chuck Knoblauch (.424, 46), Reggie Sanders (.397, 36), Craig Biggio (.406, 33), Rickey Henderson (.407, 32), Brett Butler (.377, 32)

1990 (9). Rickey Henderson (.439, 65), Barry Bonds (.406, 52), Brett Butler (.397, 51), Tim Raines (.379, 49), Bip Roberts (.375, 46), Delino DeShields (.375, 42), Lenny Dykstra (.418, 33), Julio Franco (.383, 31), Willie McGee (.373, 31), 

1985 (5). Rickey Henderson (.419, 80), Tim Raines (.405, 70), Willie McGee (.384, 56), Brett Butler (.377, 47), Tom Herr (.379, 31)

1980 (8). Rickey Henderson (.420, 100), Miguel Dilone (.375, 61), Cesar Cedeno (.389, 48), Billy North (.373, 45), Al Bumbry (.392, 44), Lee Mazzilli (.370, 41), Paul Molitor (.372, 34), Willie Randolph (.427, 30)

1975 (6). Joe Morgan (.466, 67), Cesar Cedeno (.371, 50), Rod Carew (.421, 35), Jose Cardenal (.397, 34), Bobby Bonds (.375, 30), Billy North (.373, 30)

1970 (4).: Bobby Tolan (.384, 57), Bobby Bonds (.375, 48), Joe Morgan (.383, 42), Tommy Harper (.377, 38)

1965 (1). Jimmy Wynn (.371, 43)

1960 (0). None

1955 (0). None

1950 (0). None

1945 (2). Stuffy Stirnweiss (.385, 33), George Myatt (.378, 30)

1940 (0). None

1935 (0). None

1930 (1). Kiki Cuyler (..428, 37)

1925 (3). Kiki Cuyler (.423, 41), Max Carey (.418, 46), Johnny Mostil (.400, 43)

1920 (3). Sam Rice (.381, 63), George Sisler (.449, 42), Edd Roush (.386, 36)

1915 (7). Ty Cobb (.486, 96), Benny Kauff (.446, 55), Eddie Collins (.460, 46), Burt Shotton (.409, 43), Ward Miller (.400, 44), Claude Cooper (.388, 41), Baldy Louden (.372, 30)

1910 (10). Eddie Collins (.382, 81), Ty Cobb (.456, 65), Dode Paskert (.389, 51), Sherry Magee (.445, 49), Clyde Milan (.379, 44), Josh Devore (.371, 43), Tris Speaker (.404, 35), Miller Huggins (.399, 34), Fred Snodgrass (.440, 33), Johnny Bates (.385, 31)

1905 (5). Honus Wagner (.427, 57), Frank Chance (.450, 38), Topsy Hartsel (.409, 37), Elmer Flick (.383, 35), Mike Donlin (.413, 33)

1900 (10). George Van Haltren (.371, 45), Jimmy Barrett (.400, 44), Willie Keeler (.402, 41), Honus Wagner (.434, 38), Roy Thomas (.451, 37), Kip Selbach (.425, 36), Elmer Flick (.441, 35), Fielder Jones (.383, 33), Jesse Burkett (.429, 32), Billy Hamilton (.449, 32)

 

[Second Base]

Thank you @Blargand @Angelsjunky!!!

I think given the data provided, it appears that Rengifo developing into that (:370 OBP and many SB) sort of player is well within his spectrum of possible outcomes. Of course it isn't guaranteed, but it does appear as if it's certainly not a far fetched possibility.

This is just speaking in generalities, but contact oriented players who rely on plate discipline and speed typically have less of a learning curve when moving up a level. It'll be interesting to see what Rengifo does as a follow up.

[Stradling]

So Taylor Ward had almost a .390 OBP. In the minors.   He didn’t show a ton of power but certainly isn’t what I would call a light hitting third baseman.   His game isn’t predicated on speed, but he isn’t slow, probably a tick above average.  Do we think his OBP in the majors will end up being above .350 or because he has some swing and miss in him that would be unrealistic?

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

So Taylor Ward had almost a .390 OBP. In the minors.   He didn’t show a ton of power but certainly isn’t what I would call a light hitting third baseman.   His game isn’t predicated on speed, but he isn’t slow, probably a tick above average.  Do we think his OBP in the majors will end up being above .350 or because he has some swing and miss in him that would be unrealistic?

I dug into some of his stats a few weeks back, and though he wasn't walking much in the bigs and had a lot of Ks, and if I recall, I think the data suggested he was actually being a little too patient - he was striking out looking more than usual. 

MLB pitchers just went right after him, and he probably relied a bit too much on his eye, and it bit him - he'd go down looking or find himself in a hole and had to swing out of it. 

It's more encouraging than had he been swinging through everything and going down on 4 pitches like Cowart, who turned it into an artform.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

So Taylor Ward had almost a .390 OBP. In the minors.   He didn’t show a ton of power but certainly isn’t what I would call a light hitting third baseman.   His game isn’t predicated on speed, but he isn’t slow, probably a tick above average.  Do we think his OBP in the majors will end up being above .350 or because he has some swing and miss in him that would be unrealistic?

I think you will find a large graveyard of minor league players that had excellent OBP skills that never transistioned to the major league level. But... If they never developed that skill in the minors it is doubtful they will develop it in the major leagues.

Chone Figgins minor league OBP was .347. His Major league total was .349. In both cases Chone had down seasons in the minors and majors but similarities.

In AAA Figgins OBP was .371. in the height of his career with the Angels he registered an OBP of around .390 and 40 plus stolen bases. 

From 2003 - 2009 Figgins batted .293 with an OBP of .363 with 238 stolen bases. That is a hell of a leadoff hitter and a high bar for Rengifo in the three outcome era. 

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

So Taylor Ward had almost a .390 OBP. In the minors.   He didn’t show a ton of power but certainly isn’t what I would call a light hitting third baseman.   His game isn’t predicated on speed, but he isn’t slow, probably a tick above average.  Do we think his OBP in the majors will end up being above .350 or because he has some swing and miss in him that would be unrealistic?

Taylor Ward's minor league career isn't exactly a measure of consistency that you'd use to predict future performances.  He went from focusing solely on his receiving skills and handling a pitching staff behind the plate for three consecutive years, to moving to third base where he only had to worry about himself.  Not only that, his swing and general approach were overhauled in his final season in the minors before reaching the majors leagues.  His approach isn't contact oriented and speed isn't a huge part of his game (though it is a nice add-on). 

So he's not exactly who I'd add into this group.  

Guys that are in that group, Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturis (to a lesser extent), Erick Aybar (the plate discipline wasn't a marquee tool), Jose Peraza (minus the plate discipline), Kenny Lofton.....

These are the type of players that typically don't have as steep of a curve adjusting to new levels because their tools are largely ones that don't necessarily slump, or if they do slump, they don't slump as bad.

Obviously Rengifo isn't part of that group yet because he's still a minor leaguer, but if we're basing it solely on skill set, yeah he fits in with that general group.