The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Angelsjunky]

I think @totdprods summarized it well—excellent top 10, good top 30, poor pitching and depth beyond top 30. I would also question how strong the correlation between farm talent and records is. It may be somewhat like Spring Training records: they mean almost nothing.

[totdprods]

Something I do randomly throughout the year is measure up the Angels top 15 SP (ranked only by GS) and compare it to the same for other clubs, just to see how the quality of depth stacks up . Three 'rotations' worth. 

The Angels Top 15 SP in 2018 - by games started:
5.26 ERA, 1.53 WHIP (2017 it was 4.30 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and in 2016, it was a 4.81 ERA and 1.42 WHIP)
 
Houston's Top 15 SP in 2018 ranked by GS:
3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

The Angels had 6 SP reach AAA at highest level, 3 reach AA, 2 reach A+, 1 reach Burlington, and 3 in Rookie Ball. 
The Astros had 7 SP reach AAA, 4 reach AA, 3 reach A+, and 1 in A Ball. 

Of those 15, only four Angels SP had an ERA below 4 - Suarez, Canning, Madero, and Emilker Guzman. 
The Astros had 11. 

The Angels 15:
Suarez, Canning, Gatto, Manoah, Madero, L. Pena, J. Rodriguez, Mathews, Morales, Natera, Alexander, Castillo, Guzman, Pineyro, Rivera

Obviously it's not meant to be a true indicator of the farm or the prospects, but I feel like it's a handy way to sample what's in the water, so to speak. Presumably, your Top 15 will be a blend of guys who are 1) producing 2) top prospects getting as much playing time as feasible and 3) are closest to helping the big league club 

[totdprods]

I also take the Top 27 hitters by plate appearance, three 'line-ups worth', ranked by plate appearances.

The '18 Angels: 
.265/.345/.400/.745 (2017 it was .264/.339/.386/.724, and in 2016 it was .258/.328.374/.702)

The '18 Astros: 
.267/.342/.423/.765

[Angel Oracle]

So it would seem that more pitchers definitely need to be drafted in 2019?

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

So it would seem that more pitchers definitely need to be drafted in 2019?

Maybe - the 2018 class was mostly pitchers who didn't pitch this year. So, next year we may see the pitching on the farm swing up while guys like Ward, Fletcher, Thaiss, Fernandez, Rengifo, Walsh, Hermosillo, Briceno graduate to more big league playing time, resulting in the cumulative offense production to dive.

I could see the pitching improve a lot in 2019 with Soriano, Yan, Chris Rodriguez, Swanda, Bradish, Hernandez, Molina all logging a lot more innings, as well as guys like Rivera and Duensing who literally have nowhere to go but up - their combined ERA is probably around 11.00. 

It's not enough of a sample either in time or results to say so definitively, but the Eppler farm has swung back and forth a bit each year from being a little better pitching-wise, to a little better offensive-wise. I think they're sort of drafting/claiming/signing in 'waves' as they balance the farm. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Is that partly due to accelerated promotions?   And partly due to the still mostly meh pitching on the farm, although even that is still significantly better than under Dipoto?  

our rookie teams had horrific records so it can't all be blamed on dipoto.  I mentioned this earlier in the thread and didn't get much response so I did a little investigating. 

1. As you mentioned.  Very aggressive with promotions

2. Eppler has focused on high ceiling players so a ton of boom or bust guys.  Most of whom are going to be busts.  

3. Particular directives for each at bat or each batter.  Not just 'go play ball'.  Particularly on the pitching side.  Throw this in this count.  Throw that in that count.  regardless of whether you've got it.  They're starting early at trying to get players to think like major leaguers.  as an example, John Swanda has enough fastball stuff to get rookie ball hitters out consistently.  But they're forcing him (and others) to develop their secondary stuff or visa versa ie you may have a great curve or slider, but you better learn to spot the fastball.  You can't get away with one pitch in the majors, so why would you practice doing so in the minors.  It's frankly why Barria and Suarez suddenly turned a corner.  Not exactly sure what they're telling hitters, but I think it's mostly related to plate discipline.  Then, once they see the player starting to develop, they give them a bit more freedom.  

4.  limited use of our higher end starting pitchers and pen arms.  Meaning that minor league filler is getting more chances.  they're also using that philosophy to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle in trying to give more opps to guys who wouldn't normally get them.    

5.  We're still thin at A, A+ and AA because of drafts prior to 2016.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think @totdprods summarized it well—excellent top 10, good top 30, poor pitching and depth beyond top 30. I would also question how strong the correlation between farm talent and records is. It may be somewhat like Spring Training records: they mean almost nothing.

Age plays into this as much as depth....   

A team of 27 year olds in AA would likely win a lot more games but that wouldn't really be an indication of coming talent....  A question I've heard repeatedly over the years from scouts is "was the best player on the team younger or older than the league?" If the answer is yes, then the record is sorta irrelevant.    Pretty much across the board the best players on most of the farm teams were the youngest players... 

We don't have a great deal of organizational types in part because they have been trying to bring in as much talent as possible from any and every source possible.  That huge amount of organizational churn has resulted in a lack of minor league veterans to help the legit guys along...  The one place where the team did have those types was in AAA, and I believe they ended up with the best record among our farm teams..... 

Edited September 25, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Chuck]

How did Angels Triple-A hitting coach Donnie Ecker work to help revamp the swing of 2016 first-rounder Matt Thaiss (as well as the likes of Taylor Ward, Michael Hermosillo and others)? His methods at times were unorthodox. https://t.co/SbHUhoJ6Pp pic.twitter.com/RYyiYPgFgE

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) September 26, 2018

[Chuck]

The Angels’ assistant international scouting director goes elsewhere in the AL West, joining ex-Angels GM in Seattle. https://t.co/uJzpEUboUE

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) September 26, 2018

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

.@FabianArdaya wrote a recent article on Matt Thaiss' swing alteration, so I did a side-by-side clip of his college swing and swing from this season, here's the article: https://t.co/ehZxnjKGeH pic.twitter.com/pCxZHtLbsS

— Taylor Blake Ward (@TaylorBlakeWard) September 26, 2018

[Angel Oracle]

Donnie Ecker for new Halos' hitting coach?

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Donnie Ecker for new Halos' hitting coach?

Or Jeremy Reed.

Then again, we need good coaches on the farm, maybe even more than the big league team. 

[Second Base]

I was looking up some former Angel prospects that flamed out and came across this - https://www.instagram.com/treck_30/?hl=en

 

Apparently Reckling is a model now.  Cool. 

[Chuck]

 

 

[tdawg87]

[Angelsjunky]

17 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

tdawg, stop looking at the Angelswin staff writers page.

[Vlad27Trout27]

question about Canning

So far it looks like the concern with him is his Size, and how it may limit his potential. But, i'm wondering is height a major difference between players?  Greinke is 6'2, while Bauer is 6'1, it did take Bauer longer to figure it out, but where would you guys place canning with these guys?

We know that his stuff has improved, so whats is new potential? a number 2. 

[tdawg87]

Height is only a real concern for projection nerds. His stuff is very good, and he could easily be a frontline starter. 

[eaterfan]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Height is only a real concern for projection nerds. His stuff is very good, and he could easily be a frontline starter. 

Yes, because traditionally it's been stat nerds who judge players by physical appearance and not traditional scouting...

[tdawg87]

9 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Yes, because traditionally it's been stat nerds who judge players by physical appearance and not traditional scouting...

We're talking about a guy who is 6'1. He's not short. If he were 6'3 he'd be a top 20 prospect, even if his numbers were exactly the same.

Also I said "projection nerds" not stat nerds. The guys who will value a pitcher who is 6'5 and throws 98 mph over guys who are 6'0 and throw 95 mph, even though the 6'5 pitcher has no offspeed pitch and walks 6 per 9.

Edited October 7, 2018 by tdawg87

[Second Base]

5 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

We're talking about a guy who is 6'1. He's not short. If he were 6'3 he'd be a top 20 prospect, even if his numbers were exactly the same.

Also I said "projection nerds" not stat nerds. The guys who will value a pitcher who is 6'5 and throws 98 mph over guys who are 6'0 and throw 95 mph, even though the 6'5 pitcher has no offspeed pitch and walks 6 per 9.

Sounds about right actually. This was the driving belief behind my rant that I really didn't trust the scouting arena's judgment on pitchers anymore. There are just too many Jaime Barria or Matt Shoemaker types in the big leagues for this to be a special instance. Guys that don't have the traditional pitcher's build and throw 95+ are still finding a ton of success at the top level. 

[Tank]

7 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Height is only a real concern for projection nerds. 

#poornate

[Angel Oracle]

Pedro was just 5-11 and 170.

[Angelsjunky]

[2020worldseries]

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#Angels RHP Brett Hanewich just touched 99 in relief here at Scottsdale.

9:10 PM - 9 Oct 2018

 

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