The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Are we thinking Suarez is ready before Canning? Both should be ready sometime in the first half of 2019, even in April. Sandoval maybe by the second half.

The Angels are starting to have some nice depth in the rotation. Now they just need a couple guys to take a step forward to be at least #2s. Ohtani has the talent but it is hard imagining him starting 25+ games. Skaggs has shown flashes. Heaney reminds me of Shoe a few years ago where he had spells where he looked like an ace then spells of getting bombed. Maybe one of Canning, Suarez or Barria can step forward beyond the projected mid-rotation ceiling.

Timeline really shouldn't matter, as both Suarez and Canning are ready. 

I think my concern is that Barria's ERA catches  up with his FIP. Well, that and the injury bug would strike for like the fourth consecutive year.

[Angelsjunky]

From what I've seen so far of Barria he's the type of pitcher that regularly out-performs his FIP, due to his grit, savvy, and other factors that all fit in the category of "pitchability." Improvement from him might look more like consolidtation of an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.00 range, but with a lower FIP. 

 

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

From what I've seen so far of Barria he's the type of pitcher that regularly out-performs his FIP, due to his grit, savvy, and other factors that all fit in the category of "pitchability." Improvement from him might look more like consolidtation of an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.00 range, but with a lower FIP. 

 

What’d you think of Bridwell? Cause I saw a dude who had quite a bit of savvy and grit also outperforming his peripherals.

[mulwin444]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

What’d you think of Bridwell? Cause I saw a dude who had quite a bit of savvy and grit also outperforming his peripherals.

Bridwell pitched well last season but hard to see if he could follow it up or not due to elbow issues

[Angelsjunky]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

What’d you think of Bridwell? Cause I saw a dude who had quite a bit of savvy and grit also outperforming his peripherals.

I don't see Bridwell being more than a #5-6 rotation filler type. I think Barria has significantly higher upside. Maybe I'm colored by Barria's youth and should put greater credence on their stuff, but it is hard to imagine a guy succeeding in the majors at 21 not improving at least somewhat, while Bridwell was more of a minor league veteran who optimized his chance in the majors last year. 

Also, compare their minor league records: Barria's is much more impressive.

[Angel Oracle]

Bridwell has soft tosser stuff, which for a righty is not good, while Pena and Barria have better stuff.

Bradish is intriguing, as he had really good numbers pitching at a high altitude at Las Cruces in college.

[Angelsjunky]

I may be over-simplifying things, but I think a pitcher's success depends on two factors:

1. Their stuff - how good their pitches are. Not just velocity, movement, how well their pitchers, etc, but also probably control (but that could also be part of pitchability - I'm undecided).

2. Their pitchabiility - that is, what they do with their stuff, including command, pitching IQ, mentality, etc.

Aces excel in both areas; #2s are either very good at both, or excellent at one and good in the other. Mid-rotation types (#3-4) usually are very good in one area and decent in the other (like Barria), or above average in both. To be a major leaguer you have to at least be decent in both. 

And of course there is another factor:

3. Health.

[tdawg87]

Bridwell is perfectly fine as depth. He's probably not good enough to stick in the rotation full time or move to the pen, so he can be a swingman. Although he's not 6th (or 7th) on the depth chart.

[Angelsjunky]

Bridwell reminds me a bit of Dustin Moseley: he's a nice pitcher to have in AAA, that will be flying back and forth as needed; a quintessential "6th starter" (in a five-man rotation). But if he's pencilled into your rotation at the beginning of the year, your rotation is probably not very good (or you have crap depth). 

As far as 2019-20 is concerned, there are about ten pitchers in the org that I hope to see get more starts than Bridwell: Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Shoemaker, Canning, Suarez, Sandoval, Tropeano, Meyer. After that it gets hazy with Bridwell,  Ramirez, Gatto, Beaseley, the two Penas, Cole, Lamb, etc, all in a similar group. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

From what I've seen so far of Barria he's the type of pitcher that regularly out-performs his FIP, due to his grit, savvy, and other factors that all fit in the category of "pitchability." Improvement from him might look more like consolidtation of an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.00 range, but with a lower FIP.

It's really to early to say with Barria, he just doesn't have a lengthy pitching record.   

We are talking about a guy who's made 20 minor league starts above A-ball, including 5 this year.  In his two full minor league seasons we have seen him beat his FIP one year and under-perform it the other.   

Focusing solely on this year, a lot of the disparity between his ERA and FIP came via a span of 30.1 innings where he gave up 9 HRs.  Given his career minor league HR rates (0.6), that may have been a blip and his second half FIP of 3.82 is more in line with his actual ERA of 3.32 but again....  there just isn't a big track record statistically.  

His contact rates this year hint at an ability to induce weak contact, so there is some FIP funny stuff there..... but he's also tended to be better the second and third time through the order so, he's also shown the ability to get better the longer he's gone.

All I know is he's a now 22 year old rookie who followed up what may have been his worst start of the year vs the Astros with what may have been his best start of the year a week later.   He's not been smoke and mirrors.

[Chuck]

Now that the minor league season is over for all of our upper level clubs, do you think we'll see the likes of Walsh, Rengifo, Suarez, etc. promoted?

[Chuck]

Speaking of Jared Walsh, he finished with a solid slash line across three levels. .277/.359/.536 with 29 HR & 99 RBI. 

Though his last game of the minor league season ended with a thud, going 0-5 with 5 strikeouts. 

[Docwaukee]

Bridwell?  ha.  don't even consider him on the depth chart.  

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Speaking of Jared Walsh, he finished with a solid slash line across three levels. .277/.359/.536 with 29 HR & 99 RBI. 

Though his last game of the minor league season ended with a thud, going 0-5 with 5 strikeouts. 

Sounds like he really wanted to end with 30/100.

[totdprods]

8 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Now that the minor league season is over for all of our upper level clubs, do you think we'll see the likes of Walsh, Rengifo, Suarez, etc. promoted?

Aside from the usual suspects - Paredes, Morris, Blash - I'm not sure we will see a lot of additions this September. 

Those names you listed need to be added to the 40, and I'm sure they will by the offfseason, and I could see Eppler holding off on Suarez and Rengifo until then. Both played long seasons already, are pretty young, advanced many levels, and have a lot of players ahead of them needing some September playing time for assessment. I don't want to trim someone who may wind up useful like Almonte or  Castillo from the 40 just for the sake of getting Suarez 7 innings and Rengifo 30 plate appearances when we know they'll be added this winter regardless. 

Walsh though I would like to see. With Pujols out and Fernandez still not quite impressing, I think it'd be wise to get him some MLB at-bats and determine if he's worth using a spot on the 40. He seems the likeliest to be exposed to the Rule V, so I say let's add him and see what happens.

[totdprods]

Just a little note on Bridwell. 

As a SP, taking out the ownage Oakland dealt on him...
He pitched 111 IP with a 2.92 ERA and trends of...
H/9: 7.7
BB/9: 2.1
HR/9: 1.3
K/9: 5.3

Jon Garland, in his age 25 season, won 18 games with a 3.50 ERA, made the All-Star team, finished 6th in Cy Young, and his trends looked like this...
H/9: 8.6
BB/9: 1.9
HR/9: 1.1
K/9: 4.7

Garland would win another 72 games and post a 4.33 ERA over 1142 innings, with peripherals that were by no means better than Bridwell's. 
Almost every start I saw of his last year, I saw a pitcher who knew his limitations and made up for it by executing an attack plan consistently. 
The elbow issues are a concern, and Oakland wrecks him, but I think this board is writing off Bridwell too prematurely. I do agree that he is best served as #4 to #6 SP depth though.

[totdprods]

September 3, 2018

Salt Lake (71-68) lost 6-7 vs. Fresno/HOU (82-57) in 10 innings

• Rengifo: 1-4, 2B, RBI, BB, 2 K
• Hermosillo (RF): 2-5, 2 R, HR (12), 2 RBI, 2 K
• Thaiss: 0-5, 2 K, E (8)
• Blash: 1-2, 2 R, HR (29), 2 RBI, 3 BB, K - finishes the year with the most PCL HRs
• Walsh: 0-5, 5 K, E (4)
• Rojas: 1-2, R, RBI, 2B, K
• Suarez: 5 IP, 5 H, R, 0 ER, BB, 4 K - 62 pitches, 41 strikes
  Last 10 starts: 47.1 IP, 3.99 ERA, .242 BAA, 3 HR allowed, 20 BB, 48 K
• Jerez: 0.2 IP, 2 H, ER, 2 K
• Rhoades: IP, H, 2 K 
  Rhoades' second half: 26.1 IP, 0.34 ERA, .211 BAA, 9 BB, 28 K

Mobile (66-70) won 4-3 vs. Montgomery/TBR (79-61)

• Jones: 1-5, R, SB (11) - ends the year with 39 XBH, 67 BB, and 24-28 in SB attempts, and a .946 FP% at 2B
• B. Sandoval: 2-4, R, K, 2 SB (15)
• Spires: 3-4, 2 R, 2B
• P. Sandoval: 5 IP, 4 H, ER, 2 BB, 6 K - 69 pitches, 51 strikes
  Since being acquired: 7 starts, 34.1 IP, .150 BAA, 0.79 ERA, 14 BB, 48 K
  On the season: 26 G/20 GS: 122.1 IP, .196 BAA, 2.06 ERA, 29 BB, 145 K
  Even crazier, take out his disastrous 10 ER GS vs. our very own Burlington, and it looks like this...
  118 IP, .180 BAA, 1.37 ERA, 4 home runs allowed, 28 walks, and 145 strikeouts (good for a 11.06 K/9)
• Alexander: 4 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Inland Empire (67-73) lost 11-15 at Rancho Cucamonga/LAD (87-53)

• Marsh: 4-6, 4 R, 2 2B, HR (7), 3 RBI, K - ending the year on a huge note
• MacKinnon: 3-5, 2 R, BB, K
• Zimmerman: 2-5, R, HR (11), 3 RBI, BB

Burlington (50-84) vs. Clinton/SEA (69-70)
Cancelled; wet grounds

Orem (21-52) lost 2-5 at Grand Junction/COL (41-32)

• Jackson: 0-4, K E (9)
• Maitan: 1-4, K
• Knowles: 0-4, 3 K, E (3)
• Sala: 1-3, R, 3B, RBI, K
• Yan: 3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, HR
• Pina: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K; the 19-yr old RHP has a 3.48 ERA, .226 BAA, 1 HR allowed, 19 BB, and 61 K in a total of 44 IP across 19 G at Orem, AZL, and DSL
• Higgins: 0.1 IP - the 6'5", 240 LHP drafted in the 2018 30th Rd. has made his second Orem appearance

[totdprods]

Also, with the season winding down, this is a fun list...www.rosterresource.com/milb-power-rankings/
It is not a Top Prospects list...it's a power rankings list, updated weekly, using a formula that weighs a player's actual production, weighted with age and level, in different categories. 
No hype, just performance. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus Top 100 numbers are ranked there too, so you can see where the guys with the actual hype stack up against those who are performing. 

Notable: 
Right behind Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., atop the #1 spot, is...

#2. Luis Rengifo
#29. Matt Thaiss
#37. Taylor Ward
#55. Jared Walsh
#59. Jo Adell
#133. Patrick Sandoval
#138. Jahmai Jones
#156. Jose Suarez
#182. Jose Rojas

Last year, the counting the entire year's production, the Angels had:
#100. Jahmai Jones
#111. Matt Thaiss
#155. Kaleb Cowart
#159. Zach Houchins

[mtangelsfan]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Also, with the season winding down, this is a fun list...www.rosterresource.com/milb-power-rankings/
It is not a Top Prospects list...it's a power rankings list, updated weekly, using a formula that weighs a player's actual production, weighted with age and level, in different categories. 
No hype, just performance. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus Top 100 numbers are ranked there too, so you can see where the guys with the actual hype stack up against those who are performing. 

Notable: 
Right behind Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., atop the #1 spot, is...

#2. Luis Rengifo
#29. Matt Thaiss
#37. Taylor Ward
#55. Jared Walsh
#59. Jo Adell
#133. Patrick Sandoval
#138. Jahmai Jones
#156. Jose Suarez
#182. Jose Rojas

Last year, the counting the entire year's production, the Angels had:
#100. Jahmai Jones
#111. Matt Thaiss
#155. Kaleb Cowart
#159. Zach Houchins

Damn you Dipotooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[wopphil]

Jones had a solid year, all things considered. He is still quite young. Hopefully he starts in AA next year and improves, making him a contender for 2B by 2020 (his age 22 season).

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Jones had a solid year, all things considered. He is still quite young. Hopefully he starts in AA next year and improves, making him a contender for 2B by 2020 (his age 22 season).

Or priiiiime trade bait, if you're buying the success and see some projection in Fletcher or Rengifo.

[wopphil]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Or priiiiime trade bait, if you're buying the success and see some projection in Fletcher or Rengifo.

Fletcher throws such a wrench into things (in a good way). If he can prove to be a viable full time solution at second base, it gives the teams a multitude of good options.

[Chuck]

12 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Fletcher throws such a wrench into things (in a good way). If he can prove to be a viable full time solution at second base, it gives the teams a multitude of good options.

I don't think Fletcher or Cozart should be given the full time starting jobs right away. 

I hope the new manager lets Cozart, Rengifo, Ward, Fletcher and Fernandez battle it out for two spots (2B & 3B) in spring training. With one, if not two vying for backup roles.

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I don't think Fletcher or Cozart should be given the full time starting jobs right away. 

I hope the new manager lets Cozart, Rengifo, Ward, Fletcher and Fernandez battle it out for two spots (2B & 3B) in spring training. With one, if not two vying for backup roles.

May be unpopular, but I think they should sign - probably not trade - for another stopgap 2B/3B type. 

Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, Logan Forsythe, Donaldson, maybe Beltre, Dozier, Muprhy, Harrison, Marwin, Galvis are all free agents.
And pending IF '19 class FAs like Castro, Gyorko, Solarte, Schoop, Kipnis, Todd Frazier fit the Kinsler/Maybin/Espinosa trade parallel. 

That's a lot of guys to choose from, any one of them could be a good acquisition, could be a bad acquisition, but I think we'll see one plucked away.

Most could play either 2B or 3B (allowing Cozart the other) and many a track record of better offensive production than what we should expect from Fletcher. Come midseason, trade one like we did Kinsler for a couple useful fringe prospects. 

Keep Rengifo in AAA getting everyday reps at the position (or multiple positions if they want him as a supersub) they feel fits best, let Fletcher live on the club as the UT IF, and use Fernandez in Valbuena's role. Since he has options, you can swap him as needed for other bench help.

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

Just a little note on Bridwell. 

As a SP, taking out the ownage Oakland dealt on him...
He pitched 111 IP with a 2.92 ERA and trends of...
H/9: 7.7
BB/9: 2.1
HR/9: 1.3
K/9: 5.3

Jon Garland, in his age 25 season, won 18 games with a 3.50 ERA, made the All-Star team, finished 6th in Cy Young, and his trends looked like this...
H/9: 8.6
BB/9: 1.9
HR/9: 1.1
K/9: 4.7

Garland would win another 72 games and post a 4.33 ERA over 1142 innings, with peripherals that were by no means better than Bridwell's. 
Almost every start I saw of his last year, I saw a pitcher who knew his limitations and made up for it by executing an attack plan consistently. 
The elbow issues are a concern, and Oakland wrecks him, but I think this board is writing off Bridwell too prematurely. I do agree that he is best served as #4 to #6 SP depth though.

I think Bridwell should be given a good work.  Just don't let him pitch against Oakland.