The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Maybe I am underselling the NY hype, although I would split the difference and say it isn't as much as you are saying but probably more than I am saying (e.g. Gleyber would have ranked higher than 41 in 2017 if he had stayed with the Cubs...not #5, but certainly at least 20-30ish).

But here's the thing, Scotty: you aren't accounting for your own and Angel fan bias in general. I don't think Baseball America, Sickels, etc, underrate Angels prospects (and West Coast prospects in general) as much as we tend to overrate our own. On average, and usually. There are cases where the "generalists" don't catch rising prospects as quickly as we do...and I give you credit for saying for years now that the Angels farm was much better than it was being given credit for, but would take a couple years to gain notice. 

Sometimes it is hard to tell whether we're overrating or general analysts haven't caught on yet. A good case in point is Luis Rengifo. I think your argument would hold that if he were a Yankee some would be talking about Alfonso Soriano with walks. Certainly it is hard to imagine how a 21-year old middle infielder with a .950+ OPS in AA isn't a top 100 prospect. It is hard to deny his performance, but why aren't analysts talking about him yet? Are they slow on the uptake because he's an Angel or do they think his stats are inflated relative to his actual tools? Ultimately we don't know how good he'll be, but maybe the truth is somewhere in between? 

With Rengifo, I think most aren't aware he's even in our organization and the ones that are aware saw him before his breakout sometime in the last couple years.

Those that have actually watched him, might see him as I do, which is a super-utility player. Someone that doesn't necessarily start But plays 80% of the time at a few different spots, a la Maicer Izturis. I'm still waiting forced someone to get excited about him.

And as for our prospects, I think it's a safe bet that I overrate them as much as others underrate them.

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

 

Your guess is being a Yankee resulted in 5-20 spots higher than he normally would've been. Evidence suggests it's more like 40 or so.

Being a Yankee takes good prospects that are fringe 100 and turns them into top 50-ish.

Again, not undercutting their prospects because Gleyber Torres is going to be a very productive player for a long time, and their recent run of prospect success speaks for itself.

But the false hype is more considerable than I think you're crediting it with. 

I think it's fair to say that if Jahmai Jones, Brandon Marsh and Griffin Canning were all Yankees, they'd be up there with Jo Adell in the rankings.

An example that tends to support your pov is Blake Rutherford.   Dude had a nice start to his career as an older HS draftee and was instantly a top 50 guy.   Gleyber likewise saw a significant rise in the rankings going from the Cubs to the Yanks... He was always a high end dude but the move to the Yankees raised his profile quite a bit.

Edited July 7, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Second Base]

Jordyn Adams walked 4 times and stole a couple bags too today. Strange stat line.

And congrats to Hunter Jr. on his golden sombrero.

[Dick B Back]

7 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Jordyn Adams walked 4 times and stole a couple bags too today. Strange stat line.

And congrats to Hunter Jr. on his golden sombrero.

Poor Junior.

[m0nkey]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

An example that tends to support your pov is Blake Rutherford.   Dude had a nice start to his career as an older HS draftee and was instantly a top 50 guy.   Gleyber likewise saw a significant rise in the rankings going from the Cubs to the Yanks... He was always a high end dude but the move to the Yankees raised his profile quite a bit.

What’s the difference between profar when he was #1 by multiple outlets and Torres pre 2017-2018? 

Just curious, because just judging from stats they put up, if profar can be a #1 guy I can see how Torres can be top 15 or top 10.

[rafibomb]

Canning had a nice start for the Bees tonight

4.2 IP

2 Hits

1 Run (1 ER)

3 BB's

7 K's

 

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, m0nkey said:

What’s the difference between profar when he was #1 by multiple outlets and Torres pre 2017-2018? 

Just curious, because just judging from stats they put up, if profar can be a #1 guy I can see how Torres can be top 15 or top 10.

Profar displayed a pretty unparalleled level of speed, discipline, power and fringe elite defense at SS as a 19 year old kid in AA. 

Torres showed less in every aspect of the game while playing at a lower level and playing a less valuable position.

To date, Profar's career has largely been derailed by injuries. I'm hoping he can stay healthy moving forward, and I hope Torres never goes through all that. I may not want their teams to win but I never wish for a player to get injured.

[Glen]

6 hours ago, rafibomb said:

Canning had a nice start for the Bees tonight

4.2 IP

2 Hits

1 Run (1 ER)

3 BB's

7 K's

 

Seems like a good option to finish the season there and make the big team next year, or even be a September call-up if the Angels are still in the hunt.

[Troll Daddy]

23 hours ago, True Grich said:

Jeff Fletcher‏Verified account @JeffFletcherOCR 49s50 seconds ago

#Angels OF prospect Jo Adell was selected for the Futures Game. He is the only Angels rep.

Tori Hunter will manage the US team and Vlad will act as hitting coach.

[Inside Pitch]

11 hours ago, m0nkey said:

What’s the difference between profar when he was #1 by multiple outlets and Torres pre 2017-2018? 

Just curious, because just judging from stats they put up, if profar can be a #1 guy I can see how Torres can be top 15 or top 10.

Profar was seen as massively projectable, he got tagged with the number one overall ranking after finishing his age 19 season in AA where he showed really advanced plate discipline and really above average power despite being all of maybe 170 pounds at the time -- he wasn't striking out much either...   Gleyber through age 19 was a full level behind him, his ouput really wasn't at the same level, and there was a lot more swing and miss to him but like Profar the physical tools were all there -- he was top 50-100 guy in my book so his being ranked 41 is pretty much noise. 

Personally, I never believed Profar was number one overall prospect worthy (top 50 sure), he had not really dominated like a Trout or Vlad Jr, but his tools were such that they allowed him to overcome what to me seemed like pretty obvious issues with his swing.   Unfortunately injuries and what I believe was the Rangers mismanagement of him derailed his career to an extent.  Profar was supposed to be the next big thing after Mike Trout, and the Rangers disregarded the holes in his swing and brought him anyway, maybe assuming the physical skills were good enough to get him over on MLB pitching - - they didn't.   He started pressing, his K rate went up, his walk rate took a hit, and then he blew out his shoulder and lost what amounted to almost two years of prime development time at ages 21-22...  

He still has a shot to be solid to above league average player IMO, but I don't think anyone still views him as a potential super-star type player.  That being said, I think some are possibly underrating him.  He's been forced to improve his game at the MLB, and while it's nothing gaudy he has IMO gotten better.  His K rate is under control and while his walk rate isn't where it was at age 19 -- he's not Trumbo level awful.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Glen said:

Seems like a good option to finish the season there and make the big team next year, or even be a September call-up if the Angels are still in the hunt.

I think part of why they are keeping his workload so low is because they may bring him up and let him get a feel for what it's like to pitch to MLB hitters.

[Second Base]

I wouldn't bring Canning or Suarez up unless this team is actually competing. Otherwise just do what they've been doing, keep rolling out pitchers that aren't as good as either of them and hope for the best.

The worst thing they can do is promote them to eat a few unimportant innings in a losing season and thus lose a year of control because we couldn't wait until May of 2019, a year we should actually compete.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

I wouldn't bring Canning or Suarez up unless this team is actually competing. Otherwise just do what they've been doing, keep rolling out pitchers that aren't as good as either of them and hope for the best.

The worst thing they can do is promote them to eat a few unimportant innings in a losing season and thus lose a year of control because we couldn't wait until May of 2019, a year we should actually compete.

Im talking about a Sept call up -- not anything before that.  That's not gonna start their clock any sooner than waiting until May of next year.

Edited July 7, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

If eloquence is a tool, Jo Adell has it...

Jo Adell‏Verified account @joadell25 3h3 hours ago

More

Can’t wait to represent the USA in the 2018 All-Star Futures Game as we compete against the WORLD! I’d like to thank everyone in the @Angels organization for helping my development and those at MLB for choosing me to participate in such a prestigious event!

[tdawg87]

51 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

If eloquence is a tool, Jo Adell has it...

Jo Adell‏Verified account @joadell25 3h3 hours ago

More

Can’t wait to represent the USA in the 2018 All-Star Futures Game as we compete against the WORLD! I’d like to thank everyone in the @Angels organization for helping my development and those at MLB for choosing me to participate in such a prestigious event!

If Eloquence is a daughter.....

[Inside Pitch]

16 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

If Eloquence is a daughter.....

Clod is a tool.

[TroutField]

Trop rehabbed with IE tonight. 5 innings 2 hits 4 k’s 0 walks. In fact, IE pitchers didn’t walk a single batter all night. 

 

Adell 0-4 with 3 k’s. Franchise over ...

 

Connor Justus with a big game(double and a homer), also Marsh 1-4 with a double.

[TroutField]

Adell 0-3 with a couple of runs scored 

Justus with a homer, kind of old to be a prospect but he’s killing it in Inland Empire after not really hitting at all in his professional career 

 

Jim Johnson pitched an inning and gave up 3 hits and a couple runs,  no surprise there. 

 

Marsh 1-4 with a couple of runs 

[Tank]

On 7/7/2018 at 1:55 AM, rafibomb said:

Canning had a nice start for the Bees tonight

4.2 IP

2 Hits

it seems like every single one of our starters in the minors (at least the ones with promise) never pitch more than 4 or 5 innings. is this by design? are the halos limiting pitch counts that severely? i'm kind of surprised i don't see more IP from them or shutouts or complete games.

i mean, if they're being limited, i'm certainly okay with it. i really don't know much about how pitchers are managed in the minors.

[TroutField]

5 minutes ago, Tank said:

it seems like every single one of our starters in the minors (at least the ones with promise) never pitch more than 4 or 5 innings. is this by design? are the halos limiting pitch counts that severely? i'm kind of surprised i don't see more IP from them or shutouts or complete games.

i mean, if they're being limited, i'm certainly okay with it. i really don't know much about how pitchers are managed in the minors.

I’m pretty sure the new strategy is to limit minor league innings. The reasoning is why waste their arms on pointless minor league innings if they are getting their work in after 80 pitches? No need to overextend their pitch count. I haven’t seen this reported anywhere but I have noticed it and it kinda makes sense. 

[Tank]

5 minutes ago, TroutField said:

I’m pretty sure the new strategy is to limit minor league innings. The reasoning is why waste their arms on pointless minor league innings if they are getting their work in after 80 pitches? No need to overextend their pitch count. I haven’t seen this reported anywhere but I have noticed it and it kinda makes sense. 

it's the easy conclusion to come to. i was just wondering if there was a specific policy announced by the team.

[Docwaukee]

My guess is they believe in the cumulative effect on the arm as well as the escalation theory that there is increasing damage with muscle fatigue. Nothing has been outright stated though 

[Chuck]

Pretty high praise for the former Ballard Star, Jo Adell, from @TheAthletic and former MLB GM Jim Bowden...@HLpreps @kyhighs

Walker Buehler was also mentioned. The article was discussing the future All-Stars in the MLB in 2021 pic.twitter.com/UF5WagD9ja

— Josh Hamlin (@Coach_Hamlin) July 9, 2018

[tdawg87]

I'm out.

[Angelsjunky]

An interesting stat line from Brandon Marsh from May 30 to July 8: .291/.396/.449. Nice average and good plate discipline, not a huge amount of power. The one worry is that he has a BABIP of .422 during that time, which means he's likely to regress.