The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Angel Oracle]

That's a nasty offspeed pitch.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, and I am stoked to see him and Adell progress.  I think Marsh progresses a bit more quickly (in part due to age), but they'll be a fun tandem to watch.  I am thinking by 2021, we can see:  Marsh RF, Adell CF, Trout LF (going to assume the younger Adell might be a better CF option by 2021, but who knows), with Upton taking over DH as his contract sets to expire.  Guessing Pujols will be gone by then (released/etc).

I think that will eventually happen, but not when Adell is a rookie. We'd probably need to see both decline from Trout (and he's actually improving defensively) and just stellar defense from Adell. My guess is more like 2023.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

One thing you have to consider though is some of those ballparks in the MWL are extreme pitchers' parks.  I don't think Burlington falls in that category.  Not to really detract from what he is doing, but it is something to keep in mind when looking at his production so far.

Yeah.. Im familiar with park indexes and how to navigate the particular link I posted.

Check the upper left hand left hand corner....   You can click the park adjusted numbers, you can also go to the main page for the league where you will find that the park plays pretty close to neutral when it comes to walks 

He's legit besting the league.  

[Angelsjunky]

I just noticed that Jose Rojas has 12 walks in 13 games. Wasn't his big weakness poor plate discipline? Anyhow, he's really a fringe prospect - I'm reminded of Luis Jimenez - but is worth keeping an eye on.

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yeah.. Im familiar with park indexes and how to navigate the particular link I posted.

Check the upper left hand left hand corner....   You can click the park adjusted numbers, you can also go to the main page for the league where you will find that the park plays pretty close to neutral when it comes to walks 

He's legit besting the league.  

It appears I am the one who is unaware of how to navigate that website   thanks for the tips!  Excited to see how he continues to develop.

[Inside Pitch]

55 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

It appears I am the one who is unaware of how to navigate that website   thanks for the tips!  Excited to see how he continues to develop.

While the site's layout makes sense, it makes you work a little....   But far and away the best available site for minor league indexes and player vs league type data....   Great resource for all of us tracking our minors.

[Chuck]

Next in line....

 

Felix Peña is DEALING.
He's got a season-high 7 Ks today.
pic.twitter.com/W9s8r7PzPX

— Salt Lake Bees (@SaltLakeBees) May 9, 2018

[Warfarin]

18 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Next in line....

 

Very interesting experiment!  He’s been a reliever for the past few years, but I am guessing we are stretching him out as a starter now to help provide more rotational depth (with Shoemaker and Bridwell both out for now, Ramirez out for the year, etc).  He’s probably next in line to start if we have any further injuries.

[Second Base]

Converting Felix Pena back into a starter is the most Eppler thing ever.

[Second Base]

The more I watch Taylor Ward hit, the more I'm seeing the subtle adjustments.  

1. His legs and arms are somehow thicker now.  He looks like he's been in the weight room. 

2. He still keeps his hands low, the difference is that he's keeping them closer in toward his body now.  His hands now draft straight back and then straight forward through the ball.  Before, he'd have to torque his body which led to head movement and his hands sort of drifting in a circular motion. 

      2a.  The result of this is a "quieter" swing, but also more lift.  Before he drove down through the ball, a little like a lumberjack might if you made him swing a baseball bat. 

      2b. This has also allowed Ward to keep his hands and eyes "inside" of the ball which is a page straight out of Tony Gwynn's book. 

3. There's a higher leg kick now, but less pelvic torque.

     3a. The result of this is a load and hand placement allows him to keep both eyes on the ball, not one eye out of the corner as he loads.  

     3b. His timing seems to be better with the leg kick too.  Usually it throws timing off, but he's getting his leg down in time and is position to hit. 

4. Ward has closed off his stance to directly face the pitcher now instead of relying on an open stance.  Again, coming straight back and straight forward through the ball, keeping all inside of it.

- If you guys skipped through that, no problem, I'll just summarize it here.  He has a cleaner, more powerful swing and looks extremely comfortable at the plate. 

Guys, I'm convinced, this is legit. 

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Warfarin said:

One thing you have to consider though is some of those ballparks in the MWL are extreme pitchers' parks.  I don't think Burlington falls in that category.  Not to really detract from what he is doing, but it is something to keep in mind when looking at his production so far.

wOBA+ if 126 puts him in the top 20.  a little lower than his ops rank so yeah.  you are spot on.  Needs to elevate the ball more.  32.9% FB rate.  that will come with physical maturity.  

[Second Base]

Also, if you guys are searching for further evidence of Hermosillo's developmental approach, consider the two videos I'm posting below. 

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=1998029683

- This may look like a run of the mill HR, but it's actually evidence of Hermosillo's physical maturity.  Those that watched the majority of his HR's throughout his career so far, where did he hit them?  Right down the left field line, tight to the foul pole.  In other words, only inside pitches that he absolutely turns on.  For the most part, Herm's game has been line drives.  But he's adding more loft to his swing, waiting on the ball longer and putting a charge into it.  Left-center vs. dead left.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=2020834883

- This second video shows Hermosillo's more fundamental approach to try and drive the ball to the middle of the field.  Going oppo on a low pitch like that is very Trout-esque.  Now before we get too excited about that, consider that Herm is doing it in the PCL where the ball carries.  In Anaheim, that's a gap double.  In most parks in the major leagues that's a gap double.  It won't be caught anywhere, but most of the time it isn't a HR.  Still, it's evidence that right now, Hermosillo's focus is on driving the ball further toward the middle.  

[Chuck]

I'm not going to lie... I'm most excited about Taylor Ward's development this season, over everyone else. 

[Docwaukee]

I think Hermosillo would get tooled at the major league level right now.  When I watch him, I see a guy that's still fairly raw.  His athleticism is off the charts.  His learning curve is impressive though.  To me, he needs the entire year in the minors.  Maybe a Sept. call up.  

[Docwaukee]

Jose Rojas - 3/5, 2b, hr.   Limited ab and a 25 yo but off to a great start.  First pro season was at age 23.  12bb and 10k in 54 pa at AA after only 23bb and 99k in 524 pa last year.  

When's the last time we had a 'where the hell did that guy come from' prospect?  Would be amazing to see a 36th round pick out of Vanguard U. become the man.  

[Chuck]

51 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think Hermosillo would get tooled at the major league level right now.  When I watch him, I see a guy that's still fairly raw.  His athleticism is off the charts.  His learning curve is impressive though.  To me, he needs the entire year in the minors.  Maybe a Sept. call up.  

Hermosillo looked like a 4-A player with speed in ST. 

I hope I'm wrong. 

[Angelsjunky]

Great analysis on Ward, Scotty. It does make me wonder about moving him to 3B, though. He'd have a clearer route to a major league job at catcher. But he could make it to the majors as an unusual 3B/C bench player. I do wish the Angels would give him the occasional start at catcher so he keeps those skills sharp.

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Anybody know what's going on with Jones? he has been really struggling, is he worried about being a 2nd baseman?

[Warfarin]

3 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

The more I watch Taylor Ward hit, the more I'm seeing the subtle adjustments.  

1. His legs and arms are somehow thicker now.  He looks like he's been in the weight room. 

2. He still keeps his hands low, the difference is that he's keeping them closer in toward his body now.  His hands now draft straight back and then straight forward through the ball.  Before, he'd have to torque his body which led to head movement and his hands sort of drifting in a circular motion. 

      2a.  The result of this is a "quieter" swing, but also more lift.  Before he drove down through the ball, a little like a lumberjack might if you made him swing a baseball bat. 

      2b. This has also allowed Ward to keep his hands and eyes "inside" of the ball which is a page straight out of Tony Gwynn's book. 

3. There's a higher leg kick now, but less pelvic torque.

     3a. The result of this is a load and hand placement allows him to keep both eyes on the ball, not one eye out of the corner as he loads.  

     3b. His timing seems to be better with the leg kick too.  Usually it throws timing off, but he's getting his leg down in time and is position to hit. 

4. Ward has closed off his stance to directly face the pitcher now instead of relying on an open stance.  Again, coming straight back and straight forward through the ball, keeping all inside of it.

- If you guys skipped through that, no problem, I'll just summarize it here.  He has a cleaner, more powerful swing and looks extremely comfortable at the plate. 

Guys, I'm convinced, this is legit. 

So that's great to hear offensively, but what I'd like to know is, how does the defense look at third?  Does he seem like he can be a good defensive 3B?  Obviously his ability to find a defensive position will play a huge role in his whether he becomes a starter for us in the future or occupies a bench role instead.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

The more I watch Taylor Ward hit, the more I'm seeing the subtle adjustments.  

1. His legs and arms are somehow thicker now.  He looks like he's been in the weight room. 

2. He still keeps his hands low, the difference is that he's keeping them closer in toward his body now.  His hands now draft straight back and then straight forward through the ball.  Before, he'd have to torque his body which led to head movement and his hands sort of drifting in a circular motion. 

      2a.  The result of this is a "quieter" swing, but also more lift.  Before he drove down through the ball, a little like a lumberjack might if you made him swing a baseball bat. 

      2b. This has also allowed Ward to keep his hands and eyes "inside" of the ball which is a page straight out of Tony Gwynn's book. 

3. There's a higher leg kick now, but less pelvic torque.

     3a. The result of this is a load and hand placement allows him to keep both eyes on the ball, not one eye out of the corner as he loads.  

     3b. His timing seems to be better with the leg kick too.  Usually it throws timing off, but he's getting his leg down in time and is position to hit. 

4. Ward has closed off his stance to directly face the pitcher now instead of relying on an open stance.  Again, coming straight back and straight forward through the ball, keeping all inside of it.

- If you guys skipped through that, no problem, I'll just summarize it here.  He has a cleaner, more powerful swing and looks extremely comfortable at the plate. 

Guys, I'm convinced, this is legit. 

line drive rate is 27%.  but still way more grounders than fly balls.  One thing he's done well is to pull fly balls and hit line drives to the opposite field.  But he could still elevate more as his FB% is the lowest of his career by far.  He could be doing that on purpose as he seems to be a very intelligent hitter.  But I haven't seen the lift you are referring to.  I see a guy hitting the ball hard to all fields.  But more from ground to line.  He barrels up well and has excellent recognition.  I'd actually like to see him elevate more.  Even if it cost him some average as I think ti would result in more hrs and double.  Something that's more difficult to defend at the major league level.  Grounders turn into outs more at the major league level due to scouting reports and guys just being better at defense.  

I agree this doesn't seem like some random spell of good luck.  He's figured something out.  Adding power to that revelation makes him very dangerous.  

So here's the big question - Do we change our stance on Dipoto if Ward becomes an avg or above major league starter at 3b?  

[rafibomb]

15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

line drive rate is 27%.  but still way more grounders than fly balls.  One thing he's done well is to pull fly balls and hit line drives to the opposite field.  But he could still elevate more as his FB% is the lowest of his career by far.  He could be doing that on purpose as he seems to be a very intelligent hitter.  But I haven't seen the lift you are referring to.  I see a guy hitting the ball hard to all fields.  But more from ground to line.  He barrels up well and has excellent recognition.  I'd actually like to see him elevate more.  Even if it cost him some average as I think ti would result in more hrs and double.  Something that's more difficult to defend at the major league level.  Grounders turn into outs more at the major league level due to scouting reports and guys just being better at defense.  

I agree this doesn't seem like some random spell of good luck.  He's figured something out.  Adding power to that revelation makes him very dangerous.  

So here's the big question - Do we change our stance on Dipoto if Ward becomes an avg or above major league starter at 3b?  

Short answer: no

Long answer: noooooooooooooooo

[Angel Oracle]

Agreed, Ward if successful still doesn’t cancel out Hackilton, Blanton, Baldoquin, destroying the farm, etc.

[Warfarin]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

line drive rate is 27%.  but still way more grounders than fly balls.  One thing he's done well is to pull fly balls and hit line drives to the opposite field.  But he could still elevate more as his FB% is the lowest of his career by far.  He could be doing that on purpose as he seems to be a very intelligent hitter.  But I haven't seen the lift you are referring to.  I see a guy hitting the ball hard to all fields.  But more from ground to line.  He barrels up well and has excellent recognition.  I'd actually like to see him elevate more.  Even if it cost him some average as I think ti would result in more hrs and double.  Something that's more difficult to defend at the major league level.  Grounders turn into outs more at the major league level due to scouting reports and guys just being better at defense.  

I agree this doesn't seem like some random spell of good luck.  He's figured something out.  Adding power to that revelation makes him very dangerous.  

So here's the big question - Do we change our stance on Dipoto if Ward becomes an avg or above major league starter at 3b?  

My friend, from what I gather, the "stance on Dipoto" is a very loaded question, haha.

But with regards to this specific instance (i.e., did Dipoto do the right thing drafting Ward #1?), I'd say the answer is also no, because I am guessing Dipoto does NOT have Ward move from catcher and make the adjustments that he's making now.  Eppler has a totally different draft and developmental team in place than Dipoto did, and it's probably unlikely they make the same recommendations to Ward.

What I have noticed is not only is Eppler far superior at drafting talent, but he also appears to be able to get the most out of Dipoto's questionable picks.  You can draft guys with all the talent in the world, but you need the correct people to help teach them things, adjust mechanics, swings, pitch sequencing, etc...

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

So here's the big question - Do we change our stance on Dipoto if,  Ward becomes an avg or above major league starter at 3b?  

You credit Eppler and the minor league coaches in place for making something out of a failed catcher.   Dipoto and company didn't draft him for his bat, they talked up his becoming a premium defender with a shut down arm.

That being said, I'd still throw some atta-boys Jerry's way.

[totdprods]

11 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Hermosillo looked like a 4-A player with speed in ST. 

I hope I'm wrong. 

Agreed - part of me is a little concerned that his future could simply be a Collin Cowgill-type circa 2014, which still isn't bad - .250/.330/.354/.684, 99 OPS+ in 293 PA and 2 WAR (!) with a few more stolen bases (Cowgill only had 4) - but isn't really the starting OF we've been hoping for. 

With Marsh and Adell chugging along, Lund, Blash, and Liriano lurking as AAAA depth, Herm strikes me as the type of low-risk, middling-reward prospect who could be flipped midseason one-for-one for a decent rental SP (Fiers, Happ, Ross), RP (Jones,Herrera), or IF (Cabrera, Dozier)...not that I'd do that, but it wouldn't surprise me.