The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[totdprods]

39 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

We do have a lot of options emerging, which is cool and will enable us to be players for some significant talent next offseason.

It's much better than the days when "oh so and so was DFAed, maybe they can start 2B?" isn't it? 

[stormngt]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

It's too early for me to assume this happens.  For a guy with his checkered health history, I am reluctant.  I want to see him healthy and performing well for the year.  If so, then I am for it.

Well considering other options on that list are Skaggs, Heaney, and Shoemaker who have all had health questions I think it's safe to say it's best to with Richards.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, stormngt said:

Well considering other options on that list are Skaggs, Heaney, and Shoemaker who have all had health questions I think it's safe to say it's best to with Richards.

Those other options are under team control though, and that's a huge difference.  Richards will want a multi-year commitment for significant money - hence, the hesitation.  

Shoemaker, for example.. if we offer him a contract and he underperforms and/or is injured again next year, we can simply not offer him arbitration and move along the subsequent year.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

50 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Our wave of young pitching isn't as far away as it seemed earlier this year.

I think at the very least, in 2019, we'll see both Canning and Suarez in the rotation in some capacity.  Suarez has to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason anyway, so might as well start utilizing him if he looks ready.

2019 (start):  Ohtani, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Heaney, Tropeano, Barria

2019 (end?):  Ohtani, Skaggs, Canning, Heaney, Tropeano, Barria, with Suarez + Castillo as swing guys and Shoemaker in the pen

etc...

So you're for giving up on Richards? By the end of season you may change your mind. He may well be the best pitching bargain in the FA market at seasons end. I'll take a wait and see approach on him. A far as injuries go there is no assurances that any pitcher is going to be injury free. So far this season there have been:

Taijuan Walker - Elbow - Out for the season
Shelby Miller - elbow - out Jun 27+
Jacob Lindgren - Elbow - Out for the season
Grant Dayton - Elbow - Out for the season
Drew Smyly - Elbow - out until at least Aug 1  
Jandel Gustave - Elbow - out until at least Jul 1
Brady Rodgers - Elbow - out until at least Jun 1
JC Ramirez - Elbow - Out for the season
Alex Meyer - Shoulder - Out for the season
Hyun-Jin Ryu - Groin - out until at least Jul 20
Rafael Montero - Elbow - Out for the season
Jordan Montgomery - Groin - out until at least Jun 20
Ben Heller - Elbow - Out for the season
Jharel Cotton - Elbow - Out for the season
Nick Burdi - Elbow - out until at least Aug 1
Dinelson Lamet - Elbow - Out for the season
Julian Fernandez - Elbow - Out for the season
Erasmo Ramirez - Elbow - out until at least Jun 1
David Phelps - Elbow - Out for the season
Jose De Leon - Elbow - Out for the season  
Clayton Blackburn - Elbow - Out for the season
Ronald Herrera - Shoulder - out until at least Jul 1
Joe Palumbo - Elbow - out until at least Jun 15
Joe Ross  - Elbow - out until at least Jun 25

And this is only pitchers expected to miss 2 months or more for the most part. So many others with elbow and shoulder injuries expected back sooner, but we know how that can go in reality. Point is no pitcher is guaranteed to be injury free.

PS - many more in the minors with injuries.

[Warfarin]

Just now, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

So you're for giving up on Richards? By the end of season you may change your mind. He may well be the best pitching bargain in the FA market at seasons end. I'll take a wait and see approach on him. A far as injuries go there is no assurances that any pitcher is going to be injury free.

 

No, not necessarily - I didn't say I was.  As of now, I am leery to re-sign him to a significant deal.  But it's early, and if he stays healthy and pitches well for most of the year, then I'm on board re-signing him.  Just as of now, 2 years of injuries and a very uneven start to this year ... I am reluctant to commit much towards re-signing him.

[totdprods]

Count me in the camp that isn't certain of a Richards resigning either. He may be the biggest "bargain" in the weak SP FA class, but those same circumstances could drive his price up - I'm more concerned with the years than dollars.

I think Canning and Suarez will enter the big-league depth charts much sooner than expected, and I have a gnawing feeling Eppler swings a trade for a long-term rotation piece mid season or offseason - at least someone with 2-3 more years of control. That doesn't mean Richards won't be resigned, but it lessens the need of it.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

No, not necessarily - I didn't say I was.  As of now, I am leery to re-sign him to a significant deal.  But it's early, and if he stays healthy and pitches well for most of the year, then I'm on board re-signing him.  Just as of now, 2 years of injuries and a very uneven start to this year ... I am reluctant to commit much towards re-signing him.

He's really only had one terrible start, he has been able to us close enough to win in every game but 1. In fact we have won 5 of his 7 starts and the pen lost the first game of season in extra innings. Richards is 4-1 with an ERA 3.93 even with the disaster start against the Yankees. He already has pitched in more games this season than the last 2 season, so that's something.

[Angelsjunky]

I could see Garret signing a one-year extension to increase his value, but chances are someone will offer him a multi-year deal. I'm somewhat mixed but like the idea of him being back next year. But the Angels don't absolutely need them, given the upcoming influx of pitching prospects.

As for the rotation in the future, I could see the Angels trading off the veterans as the young guys establish themselves. Here's how I could see it unfolding, with the year the prospect will be major league ready, and the older player's last year of club control in parenthesis:

2018: Ohtani, Barria (Richards)

2019: Canning, Suarez, Gatto, Castillo 

2020: C Rodriguez (Skaggs, Shoemaker)

2021: Soriano (Heaney, Tropeano)

2022: (Meyer)

So given that, I could see any of Skaggs, Shoe, Heaney, and Trope being traded in 2020-21.

[Docwaukee]

Dont see us being that likely to trade pitchers unless they are out of it. Keep all of them and give GR a three year deal. 

[GrittyVeterans]

Richards isn't taking a 1 year deal. He's had serious arm injuries and should be looking for financial security at this point, not taking a gamble

 

3 years, 33 million sounds fair to me

[Warfarin]

50 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

He's really only had one terrible start, he has been able to us close enough to win in every game but 1. In fact we have won 5 of his 7 starts and the pen lost the first game of season in extra innings. Richards is 4-1 with an ERA 3.93 even with the disaster start against the Yankees. He already has pitched in more games this season than the last 2 season, so that's something.

It's wasn't really the Yankees start that stuck with me, but rather the sudden entire loss of command that I've seen in multiple starts - against the A's, Royals, etc.  I like Richards and am rooting for him.  If ultimately it just requires a 10mil/yr for 3 years, then maybe that's a worthwhile gamble, but I probably wouldn't offer anything beyond that, given his recent history.

[Warfarin]

49 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I could see Garret signing a one-year extension to increase his value, but chances are someone will offer him a multi-year deal. I'm somewhat mixed but like the idea of him being back next year. But the Angels don't absolutely need them, given the upcoming influx of pitching prospects.

As for the rotation in the future, I could see the Angels trading off the veterans as the young guys establish themselves. Here's how I could see it unfolding, with the year the prospect will be major league ready, and the older player's last year of club control in parenthesis:

2018: Ohtani, Barria (Richards)

2019: Canning, Suarez, Gatto, Castillo 

2020: C Rodriguez (Skaggs, Shoemaker)

2021: Soriano (Heaney, Tropeano)

2022: (Meyer)

So given that, I could see any of Skaggs, Shoe, Heaney, and Trope being traded in 2020-21.

A fascinating idea, but I think if we are contenders, we aren't trading/selling pitchers.

I also think this could be Shoemaker's last year, barring a return soon and a strong performance.  He's a non-tender candidate, given he'll probably command 6+mil in arbitration this offseason.  We could save money by letting him go and giving innings to our young pitchers instead.  This could also help free up some money for us to re-sign Richards to the aforementioned 3/30.

[Vlad27Trout27]

I think the most likeliest scenario that could occur with Richards if he pitch the season without injuries. We'll try to re-sign him to a 5 year with an opt-out of the second year. The base salary will be around 10-12 mil per year with incentives of 3-5 mil added to the deal.  So if he stays healthy by that opt-out, he'll probably option's out but if he  ultimately needs TJ when the deal around the time he resigns we loose about 20-24 mil for two years.

Year                               Base Salary                                    Incentives (average) 

1                                      11 mil                                               3 mil

2                                      12 mil                                               3 mil

3                                     12 mil                                                3 mil

4                                     14 mil                                                2 mil

5                                     16                                                        2 mil

 

total                                 65 ( Average of 13 mil)               78 ( 15.3  mil per year)

A deal structured similar to this.

If he gets hurt and needs surgery he'll still make 65 mil for the 5 years or  he pitches really well and opt-outs. 

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

A fascinating idea, but I think if we are contenders, we aren't trading/selling pitchers.

I also think this could be Shoemaker's last year, barring a return soon and a strong performance.  He's a non-tender candidate, given he'll probably command 6+mil in arbitration this offseason.  We could save money by letting him go and giving innings to our young pitchers instead.  This could also help free up some money for us to re-sign Richards to the aforementioned 3/30.

Shoemaker had one good and has had just as much trouble injury wise as Richard's.  I would either move Shoemaker to the pen.  I think 3/33 is a good deal for Richard's.  Maybe put a "Lackey option" attach to it in case he gets hurt again 

[Warfarin]

3 hours ago, stormngt said:

Shoemaker had one good and has had just as much trouble injury wise as Richard's.  I would either move Shoemaker to the pen.  I think 3/33 is a good deal for Richard's.  Maybe put a "Lackey option" attach to it in case he gets hurt again 

This is why I think he's a non-tender candidate.  He'll cost at least 6mil through arbitration next year, which might be worth more than we're willing to pay, given his injury history and history of underperformance.

[Second Base]

This is a playoff caliber team. It makes me smirk a little that someone thinks this team will let Richards go, not acquire any SP at the deadline, and roll out a rotation with both Canning and Suarez in it.

Chances are, the Angels will look very seriously at acquiring a mid or front end starter at the deadline this year. And if that pitcher has an expiring contract then they'll re-up him. They'll likely be doing the same with Richards.

Sorry, but the Angels aren't entering 2019 with a rotation of Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Tropeano, Canning and Suarez. Not only does that rotation lack the upside, but it also has zero depth and would be largely dependent upon a group of injury prime starters not getting injured.

Eppler has watched this team he's built just get ravaged by injuries for the past two years. He'll be looking at building as much depth as possible.

More likely, 2019 will have Richards, Ohtani, ________, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, Barria, Canning, Suarez and guys like Shoe, Ramirez and Meyer working out of relief but capable of starting.

We need upside AND depth and thinking that Canning and Suarez solve both of those is a prospect picture that's too rosy for me, and I'm frequently accused of being too much of a homer when it comes to prospects.

The point of these kids is to develop the Angels into a winner, not to promote them so that the Angels can showcase them.

[Warfarin]

8 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

This is a playoff caliber team. It makes me smirk a little that someone thinks this team will let Richards go, not acquire any SP at the deadline, and roll out a rotation with both Canning and Suarez in it.

Chances are, the Angels will look very seriously at acquiring a mid or front end starter at the deadline this year. And if that pitcher has an expiring contract then they'll re-up him. They'll likely be doing the same with Richards.

Sorry, but the Angels aren't entering 2019 with a rotation of Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Tropeano, Canning and Suarez. Not only does that rotation lack the upside, but it also has zero depth and would be largely dependent upon a group of injury prime starters not getting injured.

Eppler has watched this team he's built just get ravaged by injuries for the past two years. He'll be looking at building as much depth as possible.

More likely, 2019 will have Richards, Ohtani, ________, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, Barria, Canning, Suarez and guys like Shoe, Ramirez and Meyer working out of relief but capable of starting.

We need upside AND depth and thinking that Canning and Suarez solve both of those is a prospect picture that's too rosy for me, and I'm frequently accused of being too much of a homer when it comes to prospects.

The point of these kids is to develop the Angels into a winner, not to promote them so that the Angels can showcase them.

I agree with you that we are a playoff caliber team and we WILL spend to keep it that way, but we only have an X amount of dollars to spend, so it really just depends on the needs we have.  

If Richards stays healthy and produces, then I agree he is a strong candidate to be re-signed.  We still have a whole year left to see how he does.  Historically, signing free agent pitchers who are 30+ leads to a diminishing returns type situation.  What's a fair deal for Richards, such that he gets paid but we also protect ourselves against underperformance?  A 3/33 deal was suggested elsewhere - that would be fine with me, I can take the risk of a 3 year commitment.  Even can add various incentives to that contract for IP, etc.  If Richards is looking for 5 years though, then I'd say best of luck to him.  It's foolish to say he will or won't be re-signed at this point - too many factors at play.

We have other holes that need to be addressed too, and there are a number of stellar positional players available this upcoming year - Harper, Machado, Donaldson, Dozier, Pollock, Grandal, etc.  I am admittedly very pro Harper and would love to see him signed, as we can absolutely fit him under the luxury tax level if we wanted to (while still re-signing Richards), but even if not him, there are lots of options available to us.

[Warfarin]

13 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I think the most likeliest scenario that could occur with Richards if he pitch the season without injuries. We'll try to re-sign him to a 5 year with an opt-out of the second year. The base salary will be around 10-12 mil per year with incentives of 3-5 mil added to the deal.  So if he stays healthy by that opt-out, he'll probably option's out but if he  ultimately needs TJ when the deal around the time he resigns we loose about 20-24 mil for two years.

Year                               Base Salary                                    Incentives (average) 

1                                      11 mil                                               3 mil

2                                      12 mil                                               3 mil

3                                     12 mil                                                3 mil

4                                     14 mil                                                2 mil

5                                     16                                                        2 mil

 

total                                 65 ( Average of 13 mil)               78 ( 15.3  mil per year)

A deal structured similar to this.

If he gets hurt and needs surgery he'll still make 65 mil for the 5 years or  he pitches really well and opt-outs. 

Yeah, I just can't get behind giving Richards a 5 year deal at this point.  We can offer him a shorter contract with more AAV perhaps, but 5 years is too long for a 30 year old pitcher (at the time of free agency) with a history of injuries.

[ettin]

The Angels would be foolish to let Richards go unless medically they feel he is a high risk.

His velocity is still strong. He has relatively little wear and tear on his arm in terms of total innings pitched (medically of course he has had issues). His GB% is approaching 60% on a team that has elite defensive middle infielders. His K/9 rate is at an all time high (albeit with a high BB/9 rate).

There is so much to like and so many reasons to float him a serious offer. What that offer is I don't know. If you assume he is completely healthy a 5 year deal isn't out of the question (at what price you can guess I floated it on the high side in the Primer Series). A 3 year deal based on his medical history and recent performance makes a lot more sense as others have indicated above.

A pitcher of Richards' caliber doesn't grow on trees. Having him in the rotation even as our #2 or #3 starter makes a ton of sense even at $10M-$15M per season.

[Inside Pitch]

51 minutes ago, ettin said:

The Angels would be foolish to let Richards go unless medically they feel he is a high risk.

His velocity is still strong. He has relatively little wear and tear on his arm in terms of total innings pitched (medically of course he has had issues). His GB% is approaching 60% on a team that has elite defensive middle infielders. His K/9 rate is at an all time high (albeit with a high BB/9 rate).

There is so much to like and so many reasons to float him a serious offer. What that offer is I don't know. If you assume he is completely healthy a 5 year deal isn't out of the question (at what price you can guess I floated it on the high side in the Primer Series). A 3 year deal based on his medical history and recent performance makes a lot more sense as others have indicated above.

A pitcher of Richards' caliber doesn't grow on trees. Having him in the rotation even as our #2 or #3 starter makes a ton of sense even at $10M-$15M per season.

The Phillies are itching to throw huge money at Richards, the Dodgers too.   

Teams chase upside, even if there is some risk...   Rich Hill was an even bigger injury risk, older, with a lot less upside and look what he got.....   Thats likely the starting point for his future deal.   The Angels best shot at resigning him is to extend him before he reaches free agent imo.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

The Phillies are itching to throw huge money at Richards, the Dodgers too.   

Teams chase upside, even if there is some risk...   Rich Hill was an even bigger injury risk, older, with a lot less upside and look what he got.....   Thats likely the starting point for his future deal.   The Angels best shot at resigning him is to extend him before he reaches free agent imo.

You also have to take the team who is signing him into perspective, too.

The Phillies have very little committed in terms of long-term payroll and are able to overpay / make mistakes.  The Dodgers are in a similar position moving forward, too - they have a lot of money to burn and are well-positioned.

We, however, are not in that category.  We have Pujols for 3 more years beyond this one and will also have to consider Trout's extension at some point soon.  We have less financial wiggle room, which likewise means we probably can't be as aggressive when it comes to taking a risk, at least in comparison to some other teams.  I would be more in favor of pursuing younger positional players, who are more "likely" to generate strong returns (note: likely, not guaranteed), even if they cost a bit more.

[Lou]

If Richards gets through this season healthy, I don't see any way we let him go. 

It would be stupid to do so. 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Lou

[tdawg87]

19 minutes ago, Lou said:

If Richards gets through this season healthy, I don't see any way we let him go. 

It would be stupid to do so. 

Is this a rap lyric

[ettin]

30 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

You also have to take the team who is signing him into perspective, too.

The Phillies have very little committed in terms of long-term payroll and are able to overpay / make mistakes.  The Dodgers are in a similar position moving forward, too - they have a lot of money to burn and are well-positioned.

We, however, are not in that category.  We have Pujols for 3 more years beyond this one and will also have to consider Trout's extension at some point soon.  We have less financial wiggle room, which likewise means we probably can't be as aggressive when it comes to taking a risk, at least in comparison to some other teams.  I would be more in favor of pursuing younger positional players, who are more "likely" to generate strong returns (note: likely, not guaranteed), even if they cost a bit more.

We have the payroll space to extend him and address Trout and our other needs.

[Inside Pitch]

49 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

You also have to take the team who is signing him into perspective, too.

The Phillies have very little committed in terms of long-term payroll and are able to overpay / make mistakes.  The Dodgers are in a similar position moving forward, too - they have a lot of money to burn and are well-positioned.

We, however, are not in that category.  We have Pujols for 3 more years beyond this one and will also have to consider Trout's extension at some point soon.  We have less financial wiggle room, which likewise means we probably can't be as aggressive when it comes to taking a risk, at least in comparison to some other teams.  I would be more in favor of pursuing younger positional players, who are more "likely" to generate strong returns (note: likely, not guaranteed), even if they cost a bit more.

This is all reasonable but, it will ultimately come down to whether or not the Angels view the potential upside as worth the investment -- his upside is better than any pitcher currently in the system other than Ohtani. 

As far as financial limitations go...   They have what 20 mil space this year still, they'll lose 30 Mil in FA's this coming year, the contracted players only go up 7 mil now that Trout's deal is static the next few years, and the cap goes up to 208 mil in 2019.   They are sitting at 116 mil before the arbitration guys come into play.  People like Hermosillo and Fletcher could easily slide into the lineup/bench replacing people like Young and possibly Kinsler.   They will likely continue to look for value at the C position if Maldonado goes Bengie Molina and declares he wants to get paid...

They won't have the free $$ that the Phillies and others will have but they have more wiggle room than  people think and the farm system is getting closer and closer to filling needs internally on the cheap.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Inside Pitch