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AngelsWin.com Today: AngelsWin Top 30 Prospects: #2 OF Jo Adell


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Prospect: Jo Adell
Rank: 2
2016: UR
Position(s): Outfielder
Level: Rookie Ball
Age: Entering Age 19 season in 2018.
Height: 6’2” – Weight: 195 lbs
 
screen-shot-2018-02-11-at-5-14-17-pm.png
 
Floor: Minor League depth.
 
Ceiling: MVP candidate type of player in the major leagues.
 
Likely Outcome: A star starting outfielder in the major leagues.
 
Summary: It’s a rare thing, to have a high school kid with as much upside as  Jo Adell has.  In fact, he has more upside than everyone in minor league baseball not named Shohei Ohtani, who through a series of fortunate events, happens to play in the same organization as Jo Adell.  Of course, when someone so talented plays, there are going to be a lot of doubters, and Adell has had his fair share of them already in his young career.  Though to be fair, even Mike Trout had doubters after his first two MVP caliber seasons in the majors.
 
The Angels drafted Adell with the tenth overall pick of the 2017 draft, and really the only reason he didn’t go 1-1 is simply a lack of track record.  Adell has been on the collegiate radar since he was in the eighth grade, which is mind boggling itself, but Jo really didn’t begin attracting many major league scouts until his junior year.  Even then, the scouting reports had statements like, “swing is too long”, “lack of pitch recognition”, and “very raw”  included in them.  Sure, there were other terms like “projectable”, “quick hands” and “strong athlete” included, but they didn’t fully offset the negatives.  Teams generally want a more proven entity when picking first in the draft.  No one wants to miss with 1-1.
 
But by the time Jo Adell’s senior year was finished, he’d led the nation in home runs, shortened his swing, and was just plain bigger, stronger and faster than any of his teammates, and himself a year earlier.  A few prospects could keep with him in terms of foot speed.  A few older prospects could hit the ball with as much authority as he did. And still a few more threw the ball as hard as he did, and played the outfield as well as he did.  But not a single one could do it all.  Not in this draft, and not in any draft in the last few years.
 
So I can understand why scouts thought it might be too good to be true.
 
But the Angels were more than willing to take that chance.
 
Upon signing, Adell went to the Arizona affiliate and started his professional career off with a bang.  An eight game hitting streak, and it wasn’t just a bloop single here or there.  It was 13 hits in eight games and a batting average near .500.  After scattered hits over the next couple games, Adell then followed with a nine game hit streak (14 more hits across those nine games).
 
After Adell earned himself a promotion half way through the short season, and against the majority of newly drafted collegiate players, Adell collected 34 hits in his last 17 games, which was good for another hitting streak, this one 16 games in length.
 
So as you can see, it turned out that Jo Adell was even better than the scouting report suggested, which was already a glowing report coming out of high school.  When we start looking for weaknesses in his game, we really have to dig deep.  For example, while Adell is a very good hitter, he does have a tendency to swing a miss.  Not a ton, where it’s a problem, but enough to keep an eye on it.  He also didn’t watch too many pitches, though any hitter with his success swinging the bat would be tempted to swing at everything he saw.  He does have a tendency to get out in front on a breaking ball, and because of his long load and how far he brings his hands back, Adell can be susceptible to a good fastball letter high.
 
Again, these are little things.  Nothing major.  And I think the biggest advantage that Adell has is time.  Inevitably, more advanced pitching is going to find holes in his approach or his swing, and it will be up to Adell to make the adjustments.  But at just 19 years old, Adell will have several years to develop and get past those.  The top comp that’s been thrown around for Jo Adell is Byron Buxton, and that seems relatively accurate.  When Buxton was first drafted, he had slightly less power than Adell and slightly more speed.  Adell is a better hitter, but Buxton had better pitch recognition.  Buxton covers a little more room in CF, but Adell has a better arm.  But overall, the caliber of player should be similar.
 
Like Buxton once he reaches his prime, Adell once he reaches his prime will likely threaten to be a 30/30 hitter.
 
What to expect: With the way he torched rookie ball, Adell should start the year in Class A Burlington.  Stepping up to full season ball this quickly is typically a big challenge for even the best prospects, but I believe Adell is up to the task.  If he plays the way he’s capable of, we may even see Jo cover both levels of A Ball in his age 19 season.  For me, I’ll be closely monitoring his K/BB ratio, because that will tell me if Adell’s success is due to legitimate development, or if his natural ability is simply allowing him to cut through the competition.  And like Marsh and Jones before him, as a fan it will be fun to keep track of the HR/SB numbers.  With a player like Adell, it’s also fun to track triples.
 
Estimated Time of Arrival: 2021, Jordon’s age 22 season.
 
Grade as a prospect: A
 
Grades Explained: Grade A player is a future superstar.  Grade B player is a future regular.  Grade C is a fringe major leaguer.

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Good write-up, Scotty, and I'm excited about Adell but...I think this is another example of you being a bit over the top top in your hyperbole when you say stuff like he has more upside than anyone in the minor leagues other than Ohtani. Maybe he has as much upside as anyone else, but more? That just seems like over-enthusiastic homerism. But hey, I'd rather you veer on that side than Debbie Downerism.

That said, I agree that Adell could be a superstar. Not just a potential star, like Jones and Marsh, but a true superstar. And I agree that we should watch his walks to strikeout rate closely, because that will be the difference between him being a true superstar and another "merely" good to very good player, like a Justin Upton type.

If he develops good plate discipline, Adell could be a 6+ WAR player, hitting .290+/.950 OPS. If he doesn't, then he's probably more like a 3-4 WAR player, hitting .250+/.850 OPS. Still pretty good, but it would be a tad disappointing, considering his upside.

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25 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Good write-up, Scotty, and I'm excited about Adell but...I think this is another example of you being a bit over the top top in your hyperbole when you say stuff like he has more upside than anyone in the minor leagues other than Ohtani. Maybe he has as much upside as anyone else, but more? That just seems like over-enthusiastic homerism. But hey, I'd rather you veer on that side than Debbie Downerism.

That said, I agree that Adell could be a superstar. Not just a potential star, like Jones and Marsh, but a true superstar. And I agree that we should watch his walks to strikeout rate closely, because that will be the difference between him being a true superstar and another "merely" good to very good player, like a Justin Upton type.

If he develops good plate discipline, Adell could be a 6+ WAR player, hitting .290+/.950 OPS. If he doesn't, then he's probably more like a 3-4 WAR player, hitting .250+/.850 OPS. Still pretty good, but it would be a tad disappointing, considering his upside.

I meant every word. He does have higher upside than anyone. Acuna included, though he and Robles come closest.

He isn't a better a better prospect, but his ceiling is higher than the rest.

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So last year I was on the Angels and Adel train long before it became a talking point.   My early HS pick based on the Angels' draft spot and availability this year might be Xavier Edwards...  Kid is a midget by MLB standards but good lord does he have bat to ball skills and wheels...    Vandy commit so, he's got a brain too...

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2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

So last year I was on the Angels and Adel train long before it became a talking point.   My early HS pick based on the Angels' draft spot and availability this year might be Xavier Edwards...  Kid is a midget by MLB standards but good lord does he have bat to ball skills and wheels...    Vandy commit so, he's got a brain too...

https://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/xavier-edwards-excels-on-day-1-of-wilson-premier-classic/#uibYokubGEeqqwrC.97

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28 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I meant every word. He does have higher upside than anyone. Acuna included, though he and Robles come closest.

He isn't a better a better prospect, but his ceiling is higher than the rest.

I know you meant every word, I just think your view is a tad colored by homerism. No big deal, really.

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27 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

So last year I was on the Angels and Adel train long before it became a talking point.   My early HS pick based on the Angels' draft spot and availability this year might be Xavier Edwards...  Kid is a midget by MLB standards but good lord does he have bat to ball skills and wheels...    Vandy commit so, he's got a brain too...

I'm really feeling like there's an organizational need for a couple of upside arms that can climb that minor league ladder in two years. Richards is a FA after this year, and Heaney, Skaggs, Shoe, Tropeano and Ramirez have injury concerns and will have expiring contract in the next 2-3 years. All we have are Barria, Canning and Rodriguez. 

While I'm confident that if healthy, all three will be quality major leaguers, I am aware of prospect attrition rates. 

Three years ago this organization had nothing in the way of position playing prospects. Since then we've drafted Ward, Jones, Hermosillo, Thaiss, Marsh and Adell and have traded for Maitan.

I'd like to see the Angels lean heavy on pitchers and right side infielders in their first four picks over the next two drafts.

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2 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I'm really feeling like there's an organizational need for a couple of upside arms that can climb that minor league ladder in two years. Richards is a FA after this year, and Heaney, Skaggs, Shoe, Tropeano and Ramirez have injury concerns and will have expiring contract in the next 2-3 years. All we have are Barria, Canning and Rodriguez. 

While I'm confident that if healthy, all three will be quality major leaguers, I am aware of prospect attrition rates. 

Three years ago this organization had nothing in the way of position playing prospects. Since then we've drafted Ward, Jones, Hermosillo, Thaiss, Marsh and Adell and have traded for Maitan.

I'd like to see the Angels lean heavy on pitchers and right side infielders in their first four picks over the next two drafts.

I have more faith in the 72 latin arms in the system than you do possibly.   I like Edwards because he's a legit SS with a legit bat skills.   At his size a move to 2B isn't out of the question.  I've seen him play in a few of the tournaments out there including some big time match-ups and he's made it look easy.  They have tried pitching him up and in, and he's inside outed balls and taken them the other way like a MLB vet.   Kid's got a clue.

All this being said..  Its February and there will likely be a Jo Adel that takes a huge step forward again.  So my being high on Edwards means diddly in the grand scheme of things.  But he's definitely stood out when I've watched him play.

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18 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I have more faith in the 72 latin arms in the system than you do possibly.   I like Edwards because he's a legit SS with a legit bat skills.   At his size a move to 2B isn't out of the question.  I've seen him play in a few of the tournaments out there including some big time match-ups and he's made it look easy.  They have tried pitching him up and in, and he's inside outed balls and taken them the other way like a MLB vet.   Kid's got a clue.

All this being said..  Its February and there will likely be a Jo Adel that takes a huge step forward again.  So my being high on Edwards means diddly in the grand scheme of things.  But he's definitely stood out when I've watched him play.

I liked Wilkel Hernandez as much as I like Soriano, which is good arsenal, iffy on the role. Suarez could be a back end starter. Pena is a reliever. 

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55 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I really thought Jo Adell would elicit more comments and reads than this. He's our top prospect until a once in a lifetime scenario occurs with Ohtani being a two-way player.

I don't think there's too much to say. He's been in the system for 7 months and didn't really play much in the field. 

He's very exciting and has a tremendous ceiling. It's great that he hit, but the questions about his hit tool haven't been answered in my mind (I don't think that's possible in a 4 month sample). He also has plate discipline issues. Please don't take this to mean that I don't like Adell. I really like him. I just don't think any questions have been fully answered and you did a good job posing the questions he'll face in the upcoming season. Can't wait to see how he develops!

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I think what eater said above is correct there isn't too much to say, Adell's a terrific prospect to have in our system. Hopefully he realizes more of his upside and turns into a versatile 5-tool type which would be a tremendous boon to this team. If everything breaks really well for him, we could potentially see him in Anaheim in the latter half of 2019 if we are lucky (this assumes he blazes through the Minors).

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22 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

So last year I was on the Angels and Adel train long before it became a talking point.   My early HS pick based on the Angels' draft spot and availability this year might be Xavier Edwards...  Kid is a midget by MLB standards but good lord does he have bat to ball skills and wheels...    Vandy commit so, he's got a brain too...

The next Altuve?

Edit:  Edwards is 5-9, some 4 inches taller than Altuve.   So much for that comparison 

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20 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'm really excited to see what Jo Adell does over the course of his first full season this year.

Him and Marsh will be interesting. There's the potential that they both torch the league as Bichette and Vladdy Jr. did last year and cement themselves among the most elite prospects. 

However, because of questionable plate discipline in both, they both could really struggle.

My guess is somewhere between. I think they'll both be overwhelmed at first by the quality of pitching and the adjustments needed, but I also think toward the middle of the year, they'll find their comfort level and finish the season as either the best players still in the Midwest League, or earn a look at the Cal League.

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the biggest nit about the 'athlete' or '5 tool guy' is that they're super raw and they don't have a lot of acumen or feel for the game.  

It's not like Adell is polished by any means, but he laid a lot of that to rest by his performance last year.   

He was the youngest position player in the pioneer league and he's still 18 actually (until april). 

I'm not as worried about his discipline as some.  When you hit .376, there aren't a lot of pitches to lay off.  The important part about him graduating from AZL to Orem isn't his decreased walk rate, but his decreased k rate.  A respectable 18.9%.  Putting bat to ball against guys 3 years older than him with much more experience cannot be overemphasized.  And like Scotty mentioned, it's not like there was a lot of dink and doink.  24 xbh in 222 PA.  

starting as he did already was above expectations so it's hard not to get superstar excited.  

nice job scotty.  

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