Let's talk about the starting pitching

[Erstad Grit]

15 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

Lynn had a lower ERA in 2015 than Darvish did in 2016 but don't forget that Darvish pitched in a much tougher environment, bandbox ballpark for his home games and in the American League with the DH. Lynn lucked out into having a good ERA last season. There's a reason why he has signed yet despite that shiny ERA.

None of the SP have signed yet! 

[JustATroutFan]

4 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

None of the SP have signed yet! 

Some have but the guys who wants contracts worth at least $100 million haven't yet. And Lynn certainly won't come anywhere close to getting that because he's not that good.

[Revad]

I’d rather sign Vargas and save the draft resources but Lynn would improve the staff imo.

[Docwaukee]

Let's think nuclear for a minute.  One of Richards or Ohtani throw less than 50ip.  One of Heaney and Skaggs throw less than 50ip.  One of Shoe, Ramirez and Bridwell aren't healthy as well.  

So let's say our rotation is Ohtani, Heaney, Shoe, Bridwell and Trop.  With Barria as our #6.  That means 3 of our top 9 don't give us much.  

The point of this exercise is #1, this isn't a horribly unlikely scenario, and #2, Slotting Lance Lynn into that rotation and displacing Barria to #7 looks a heck of a lot better.  

If you do add another starter and by the off chance everyone stays fairly healthy, who are you displacing?  

In a six man rotation, it means Ramirez and Bridwell go to the pen and Trop and Barria to AAA.  Still a reasonable scenario.  

I wouldn't be disappointed if we stood pat, but adding another arm wouldn't hurt.  

[totdprods]

To be honest, Cobb and Lynn are actually the least appealing to me because they're likeliest to get more than 2-yr deals and give you only #3-4-5 production in that time, and while I don't feel confident our current 8 SPs can cobble together 162 starts this year, I'd hope that by next year it's no question.

So for a FA SP this year, I'd only really be willing to do a multi-year for Darvish or Arrieta, otherwise I'd be fine simply adding any vet like Hellickson, Cashner, Vargas, on a one-year, or even Norris, Feldman, Cahill on a minor-league deal. I see the lower-tier really only as early season insurance so no sense committing a lot of money or years. Cahill is just as likely to produce middling rotation production as Vargas or Cashner. 

Jaime Garcia is the only middling vet I'd go two years on, simply because having another lefty is never a bad thing and it makes it a little easier to deal Heaney or move Skaggs to the pen if either scenario makes sense at some point.

There's one big variable not being mentioned....Eppler. He has hit on so many shrewd pitching moves at this point, that if he added someone relatively 'meh' I'd have to think there's a good chance Eppler sees something.

[Troll Daddy]

Signing another pitcher now only complicates matters unless it’s a top of the rotation pitcher. You go to ST first and see who’s healthy or not and then decide. 

Does anyone see JC Ramirez as a starter in 2018 if healthy? 

[JustATroutFan]

The starting pitching will decide whether or not the Angels make the postseason in 2018. Just on potential, the starting rotation can be pretty darn good if everyone stays healthy and produce the way they are capable of. Ohtani, not sure how he'll do but he has the potential to be an ace. If he does live up to the hype, he'll be the Angels co-ace if Richards can stay healthy and pitches like he did in 2014 or close to that guy. That would make a terrific 1-2 punch at the top of the starting rotation. Heaney and Shoemaker both have shown flashes of being real good but one guy just can't stay healthy and the other is streaky. At their best (2014 Shoemaker and 2015 Heaney), both are good pitches and be great #3 and 4 starting pitchers. Then, the last spot in the rotation could go to Ramirez, who was solid for the Halos last year.

But that's just potential. I don't think the starting pitching has to be good but just be decent and give the offense to score enough runs this season to win. If the starting rotation is bad, then the Angels won't make the postseason. Certain teams like the past  Yankees can still win a lot of games even with a bad starting rotation because their offense was that great. I don't think the Angels offense will have that same firepower but should still be pretty good this year. Trout is going to have a Ruthian-like season, Upton continues to be a great cleanup hitter, Simmons continuing to hit well as he's done for the past 1 and a half season, Pujols, Kinsler (contract year and being on a postseason contender should motivate him to play to the best of his ability), and Calhoun should all bounce back, and the jury is still out on Ohtani.  

 

All in all, if the starting pitching isn't good, this team will look like the 2012 team, pretty good offense and defense, but just not good starting pitching.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Signing another pitcher now only complicates matters unless it’s a top of the rotation pitcher. You go to ST first and see who’s healthy or not and then decide. 

Does anyone see JC Ramirez as a starter in 2018 if healthy? 

JC was pretty great last year, I hope he can start.  I think there’s a chance but I’m guessing if everyone is healthy he will be in the pen because he’s done it before. 

[totdprods]

My worry is a couple guys get hurt, which should be just about expected for every staff, a couple guys are ineffective, and September hits, we're in the playoff mix, and counting on guys like Nick Tropeano and Jesus Castillo and John Lamb in those #5-7 spots in the rotation, because all of our other guys are starting to reach innings-limits. 

If we make the playoffs, we also have to hope our main guys have the durability and gas in the tank to get through October as well. Remember when we almost had to start Cory Rasmus in the ALDS? Did we make all of these moves this offseason just to come to that potential outcome?

To me, it's a lot to ask of Ohtani, Richards, Shoemaker, Heaney, and Skaggs when we need these guys to also be healthy, durable, and productive for 180+ innings 2019-2021. Ideally those are our 5 for the foreseeable future so why risk burning them out their first year back?

Trevor Cahill had a 112 ERA+ in a dozen or so starts with San Diego last year and has an insane GB%, and can play in the pen as well. Only Meyer (out for the year) and Bridwell (strong regression candidate) had better ERA+ in as many starts. Even if he's redundant he has potential to be as good as most of our starters and for basically no commitment. Guys like Cahill can be flipped in May to any number of teams for a non-prospect or a recently DFAed lotto ticket if you need to make room for Heaney or Barria or whoever is lighting up AAA. Helps save some service time too.

[Blarg]

I'm really not the on the injury is a sure thing bandwagon like the rest of you. I'm also not on the let's spend more money for a #4 starter when we've got those stockpiled in the minors. 

And Trevor Cahill is crap. Ricky Nolasco could put up a 112 era+ pitching out of Petco park. 

[totdprods]

Cahill also put up a 158 ERA+ in two seasons at Wrigley as a reliever (better than what Norris and Petit did last year) and with our defense, he's a good as bet as any to replicate Petco's favorability. 

For a ST invite up to maybe $2-4m if he makes the majors, I don't understand why he wouldn't be worth a gamble.

Its not like we'd be committing an immovable 3-5 year $10-18m AAV deal for any of these guys. If they suck, cut 'em in ST or first couple weeks.

JC Ramirez has a career ERA+ of 68 before joining the Angels, where he's been good for 108. 

[Stradling]

Pitching depth allows for a team to make trades to shore up holes or to acquire a future piece.  

[Inside Pitch]

On 2/9/2018 at 12:43 PM, Erstad Grit said:

3.86 era screams number 3 pitcher to me.  It was in the 4s before switching to the NL.

Also he didn't have a bad world series,  he had the most epic meltdown disastrous  performance I've ever seen.  

Lynn has so much upside.  

He pitched his home games in Texas... so his raw ERA will always look uglier than how he actually pitched.   For his career his ERA+ is 126...       While that may not put him into the Ace class -- he's a far cry better than a number three.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

I'm really not the on the injury is a sure thing bandwagon like the rest of you. I'm also not on the let's spend more money for a #4 starter when we've got those stockpiled in the minors. 

And Trevor Cahill is crap. Ricky Nolasco could put up a 112 era+ pitching out of Petco park. 

era+ is park adjusted.  

[Erstad Grit]

19 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

He pitched his home games in Texas... so his raw ERA will always look uglier than how he actually pitched.   For his career his ERA+ is 126...       While that may not put him into the Ace class -- he's a far cry better than a number three.

Using his career stats makes him look better than he is. Would you use Pujol's career stats to evaluate him now? 

Darvish has not been a healthy elite SP since 2013. 

[Angel Oracle]

Pitching talent/depth is there, just a matter of health now.

Still would like to see one late innings foundation added to the pen.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

Using his career stats makes him look better than he is. Would you use Pujol's career stats to evaluate him now? 

Darvish has not been a healthy elite SP since 2013. 

I'm not trying to make him look any way -- using raw ERA is a terrible way to look at pitchers..  This is the same exact POV that had people here clamoring to sign Matt Garza..    Also - instead of accusing me of attempting to slant things by using career numbers how about you actually check to see if the facts support your opinions?   His career ERA+ is 126, his post TJ ERA+ is 123.   Your Albert Pujols analogy is misplaced.  

Lastly...  I didn't call him an elite SP -- in fact, in my response I said he wasn't in that class..  But you tried to paint him as no better than a number three.... and that's what I responded to.  Well, his adjusted ERA last year was equal to Jacob DeGrom, Michael Fullmer, Alex Cobb, and, Carlos Martinez -- that's an impressive list of number 3s.  Durability wise, his 31 starts were equal to Max Scherzer, and ahead of Kershaw, Kluber, and probably everyone else who's last name starts with a K.  His 186 innings pitched ranked 24th overall... same total as Lance Lynn who you are fond of.  Chris Archer, the MLB leader in games started last year (34), threw 201 innings - huge difference right?   The dude had TJ surgery -- so did Lynn.  If you consider one a health risk then you may want to reconsider how you view the other.

I wouldn't pay him what the Cubs just did -- but again..... He's a far cry from being a number three..   At least through this point in his career.

[Revad]

So let’s get this straight: Darvish and keep the draft resources or Lynn and lose draft resources?  Arte could do it,  absorb the cost and go over the CBT luxury tax, and remove next years FA class.  But I’ll take Jason Vargas just for some stability in the rotation and flexibility in the budget.  Vargas had 3.8 WAR in 2017.   https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargaja01.shtml

Vargas for 1 year and $11 million?

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

era+ is park adjusted.  

Trevor Cahill is crap. Really, his career is a series of crap upon crap with a few scattered games for a team where he isn't crap then he goes back to being crap. Park adjusted or not he is crap.