Sickels' Top 20 Angels Prospects for 2018

[Angelsjunky]

Here it is.

[Angelsjunky]

The main points of difference from the Angelswin list...

*He's less high on Chris Rodriguez, seeing him in a group with Soriano, Suarez, and Castillo.

*He is also less optimistic on Hermosillo and Thaiss.

*He isn't yet ready to include Deveaux in the top 20 - which is understandable, considering we have very little data on him.

*He shares my liking of Leonardo Rivas.

[Chuck]

I don't mind him placing Rivas where he has him, we considered putting Rivas in the top 10 as well..... to put Thaiss where he has him is pretty ridiculous, especially considering he's ranked below Taylor Ward. 

Chris Rodriguez should at the very least be in the top 10 as well based on upside. 

That said I've never really been a fan of Sickels rankings over the years. 

[Angelsjunky]

I agree with @Scotty@AW that Sickels is one of the best in the biz. I don't know his own eyeball scouting skills, but I do think he's quite objective and good at analyzing the reports of others.

Anyhow, I agree with you on Thaiss and Ward, but don't think it is ridiculous in that given their respective positions, Ward's floor is probably higher. In the pessimistic view, both become platoon types, but Ward has a more regular gig while Thaiss is AAA filler, as there are few platoon first basemen.

We also have to remember that we cannot be objective, and in that regard collectively tend to overrate upside players like CRod and Deveaux.

[Inside Pitch]

I think I'm in the minority but -- Deveaux isn't even a guy for me until he plays in actual games.    I can't formulate an opinion on a guy I haven't ever seen do anything -- one of the reasons I didn't cast a vote for him in the top 30.

[totdprods]

B+ for a short-season, DH only appearance in rookie ball for Adell is pretty damn cool. 

[Second Base]

Everyone has differences of opinion. SIckels ' scouting reports aren't blatantly laughable like FanGraphs and MLB are. 

Rivas very great at making adjustments. I don't see him with as much speed as others do, but I do think he could be a leadoff type  that can play anywhere on the infield. I see him being Maicer Izturis type of super-sub/starter.

I disagree on Thaiss, but I've seen enough skepticism for him that it doesn't surprise me.

I think he and everyone else are missing on Marsh's power and are too quick to judge on Maitan. Marsh is just beginning to tap into that power potential of his. Because he's young, they won't be as plentiful in the minors but upon reaching the majors, I see Marsh having 30+ HR potential.

And as for Maitan, he wasn't on any training or nutrition regimen from the Braves, his swing had been largely assumed to be sufficient and so began the year being completely exposed by better pitching, was in the process of changing his swing mid-season, it was his first time stateside and he was playing against competition an average of 4 years older than he was.

So yeah, he struggled big time.

The Angels have him on a strict regimen which he's taken to emphatically, has spent the whole year stateside, he's been living at the Angels Spring Training complex, has been perfecting his approach and swing and now knows what he needs to do.

Kevin Maitan is gong to be a good starting SS/3B in the major leagues for a long time. The Braves may have signed him, but the Angels will develop him.

[Docwaukee]

I think his list is fair.  

I like C Rod more but I can see why some would hedge their bets.  His delivery is funky and it's either going to play or it won't.  It's not just a matter of time.  

Rivas is gonna have to show me more pop if he's gonna move into the top 10.  With advanced scouting and defensive metrics, I don't think singles hitters are gonna be much even with his tremendous discipline.  Pitchers will eventually force him to hit his way on, and if he can't hurt them, they won't be afraid to throw him a ton of strikes.  

I can't totally disagree about Thaiss.  The power has to develop or he just isn't going to bring value unless he hits for a very high avg.  

[Vlad27Trout27]

I don't agreed with CRod ranking either, I think with 4 average to plus pitches and his upside, he should be in the top 10. Sickle did get the summary right. Chris totally reminds be of a young Richards, when he was on it was fun watching him and when he wasn't, boy was he getting knocked around. I think it will be a slow process for Chris to reach dominate Richards level but he has a chance. Also i would not be surprised if they smooth his delivery similar to how they did with Meyers and he has good enough control where he'll stay in the rotation.  

[SoWhat]

I'm fine with where he ranked Thaiss, I'm not too high on him either.

It still irks me that we drafted Thaiss one pick ahead of Forrest Whitley. That reminds me of the 2011 draft where we took Cron right before Sonny Gray. Whitley looks like a future ace, hopefully Thaiss doesn't turn out to be a dud like Cron. 

[wopphil]

Thaiss has a .395 slugging average and isn't exactly young. He has no power. First basemen with no power arent major league players.

[Second Base]

I wrote on this before.

1. He's a good hitter.

2. It was his first year as a pro and he was playing against competition significantly better than the ACC.

3. He was tweaking his swing mid-year and battling through learning on the fly.

4. He projects to be a very good hitter with some power.

5. Offensive value can come from ron ANY position. The Angels don't care what position they get it from as long as they get it.

So if fans could break out of this boxed in thought that a 1B has to hit 30 HR's and exchange that value with a higher BA/OBP than they'd see that this kid is a good hitter and those tend to be pros.

[eligrba]

58 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Thaiss has a .395 slugging average and isn't exactly young. He has no power. First basemen with no power arent major league players.

[JarsOfClay]

57 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I wrote on this before.

1. He's a good hitter.

2. It was his first year as a pro and he was playing against competition significantly better than the ACC.

3. He was tweaking his swing mid-year and battling through learning on the fly.

4. He projects to be a very good hitter with some power.

5. Offensive value can come from ron ANY position. The Angels don't care what position they get it from as long as they get it.

So if fans could break out of this boxed in thought that a 1B has to hit 30 HR's and exchange that value with a higher BA/OBP than they'd see that this kid is a good hitter and those tend to be pros.

Angels thought Kotchman would eventually develop power also and it never materialized.  They are literally the same player and even have the same swing, it's uncanny.

I think it would benefit Thaiss if he sits down with a power hitting lefty and who can help change his swing to produce more power. Angels should ask Edmonds, Chili, or GA to work on his swing.

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

Thaiss has a .395 slugging average and isn't exactly young. He has no power. First basemen with no power arent major league players.

I just cannot be optimistic about a first base prospect that doesnt have power as one of his maon projectable tools.

James Loney.  Casey Kotchman.  Travis Lee.  Etc.

I seems so predictable that these types end up with short careers and never click as an actual solution for first base.

 

[eaterfan]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I just cannot be optimistic about a first base prospect that doesnt have power as one of his maon projectable tools.

James Loney.  Casey Kotchman.  Travis Lee.  Etc.

I seems so predictable that these types end up with short careers and never click as an actual solution for first base.

 

I think it's really unfair to compare Kotchman and Thaiss. Kotchman's slugging percentage by age:

18 - .730 (rookie league)

19 - .444 (A) 

20 - .532 (A+)

21 - .553 (AA-AAA)

Kotchman was younger and more powerful.

[Docwaukee]

11 hours ago, SoWhat said:

I'm fine with where he ranked Thaiss, I'm not too high on him either.

It still irks me that we drafted Thaiss one pick ahead of Forrest Whitley. That reminds me of the 2011 draft where we took Cron right before Sonny Gray. Whitley looks like a future ace, hopefully Thaiss doesn't turn out to be a dud like Cron. 

I think we've talked about this, but Thaiss went for under slot while Whitley went over.  $1 mil difference.  Hindsight is 2020.  would I like to have whitley?  Sure but if we don't draft Thaiss, then we can't go over slot on Marsh, Williams or Rodriguez.  

[UndertheHalo]

The Thaiss assessment is pretty disappointing. Most of what I read about him is discouraging.  Starting to doubt he’s the guy to plan for at 1b. 

[ScottT]

C-Rod?

Oy vey.

I wish Trump would ban that type of "nickname".  Or Chuck.

[Warfarin]

6 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

The Thaiss assessment is pretty disappointing. Most of what I read about him is discouraging.  Starting to doubt he’s the guy to plan for at 1b. 

Yeah, I agree.  As others have pointed out, we went underslot on him, which enabled us to go over-slot on subsequent picks and get good deals there.

I know people say that you can have a successful 1B who doesn't mash 30+ homers, and while I agree with that, that kind of 1B should probably provide elite defense, strong OBP, and good speed to boot.  Is that Thasis?  The OBP part sounds accurate, but I don't think he has much speed, and his defense is reported to be just average.

He still has time to develop, and I hope he proves me wrong, but I suspect it's more likely that he isn't our long-term answer at 1B.  

[arch stanton]

It could be that Eppler and company have determined that a middle of the first rounder is too hit or miss to be worth the slot money so if you're picking there you take a safe pick and save your money for the next few rounds, especially when you're trying to restock a barren system. Then next year when they had a shot at Adell with the 10th pick that was much more worth the risk. Now this year when they're a bit further down the board you go back to the safe pick strategy

Edited February 4, 2018 by arch stanton

[eaterfan]

7 hours ago, arch stanton said:

It could be that Eppler and company have determined that a middle of the first rounder is too hit or miss to be worth the slot money so if you're picking there you take a safe pick and save your money for the next few rounds, especially when you're trying to restock a barren system. Then next year when they had a shot at Adell with the 10th pick that was much more worth the risk. Now this year when they're a bit further down the board you go back to the safe pick strategy

I'd expect the safer strategy this year as well. In addition to the reasoning you have presented, this year's draft is supposed to be really good and very deep. Guys could be available in the second and even third rounds with first round talent. Signing as many guys as possible will be smart.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, eaterfan said:

I'd expect the safer strategy this year as well. In addition to the reasoning you have presented, this year's draft is supposed to be really good and very deep. Guys could be available in the second and even third rounds with first round talent. Signing as many guys as possible will be smart.

so there are two schools of thought here.  

we have to remember that when Eppler came on board, he kept Wilson through August of 2016 as the farm director as he was still building his infrastructure.  Shortly after the 2016 draft, Wilson was relieved of those duties.  So it makes me wonder how much influence the existing crew and Wilson had over the Thaiss pick.  Because the following year our first two picks were much higher risk.  

So what you are saying is likely true if the draft is that deep, but It wouldn't surprise me to see Swanson and co. continue to hunt upside.   It likely boils down to who's there at 16 when we pick.  Last year they probably had Adell at the top of their board.  This year, if the draft is that deep, maybe an Adell type talent falls all the way to 16.   

Another thought is that we now have some top tier talent and depth.  They can probably swing for the fences a bit and still miss without it hurting the system too much.  

 

[Angelsjunky]

As the “purest” hitting position, you’ve got three factors to consider for first basemen: average, power, and plate discipline. Good defense and a bit of speed are nice bonuses but are secondary.

The very best have all three - think Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman. To be a major league starting 1B you really need two, or one very good and maybe good defense. 

Thaiss has good plate discipline and I think will take at least 70-80+ walks a year, but the question is what sort of average will he hit for. If he hits below .280 he’ll be more of a fill-in (assuming his power doesn’t develop). .270 with 10-15 HR and 70 walks is nice up the middle, but not at 1B. 

Now .290 with 80 walks and 15-20 HR isn’t a superstar, but a nice player to have in your lineup.

[totdprods]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

As the “purest” hitting position, you’ve got three factors to consider for first basemen: average, power, and plate discipline. Good defense and a bit of speed are nice bonuses but are secondary.

The very best have all three - think Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman. To be a major league starting 1B you really need two, or one very good and maybe good defense. 

Thaiss has good plate discipline and I think will take at least 70-80+ walks a year, but the question is what sort of average will he hit for. If he hits below .280 he’ll be more of a fill-in (assuming his power doesn’t develop). .270 with 10-15 HR and 70 walks is nice up the middle, but not at 1B. 

Now .290 with 80 walks and 15-20 HR isn’t a superstar, but a nice player to have in your lineup.

I keep coming back to this for Thaiss...
.257/.330/.418/.748, 106 OPS+ with 27 doubles, 21 HRs, 4 steals, 61 walks, 139 strikeouts. That's Kole Calhoun's 3-yr average. 

If Thaiss can come up and give us Kole-level offensive production at 1B for league minimum,  it's still an improvement offensively at 1B and it's not an unfathomable level to reach. 
Then you're just hoping once Jones or Herm bumps Kole from the OF, you get production from one or a combo of both of those guys that exceeds what we've been getting from 1B now. 

I figure Thaiss is closer to MLB-ready contribution than our OFs (except perhaps Herm, but I don't see him getting much of a shot unless someone's hurt, whereas Thaiss has a clearer path, so it balances out) so it's easier for me to look at his offensive contribution replacing Kole's first rather than what we're getting at 1B.