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Heyman: Inside Baseball | Which teams have actually improved this winter?


Chuck

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I don't think Cozart is going to struggle. To me he's a guy who figured it out late.

They talk about him having a huge spike, but the transition really started happening in 2016, then blossomed in 2017.

He altered his swing and became more patient at the plate. He hit ground balls at 56% of the time in 2014, and it decreased to 38.7% of the time last year. More line drives and fly balls = more home runs and doubles.

The dude had a .933 OPS last year after hitting .732 OPS the season before. That's a huge jump, but...his numbers were consistent home and away. Home .958 OPS, Road .900 OPS. And while his slugging was higher at home, .556 to .537, it wasn't that much higher. His BA and OBP were significantly higher at home than on the road, and I think that is just familiarity with the park and the sight lines.

He had a .348 BABIP at home as opposed to .261 on the road, so that shows me that he was a little unlucky on the road, and a little more lucky at home. That shows he is a pull-happy hitter hitting in a park that rewards pull happy hitters, but since it doesn't include his HR, it to me shows he just hit better at home. It really isn't a park issue.

Now, the year prior, he had a better 1st half than 2nd half, and he only played 41 games in the second half, which to me means injury. He had a .799 OPS in the first half on only a .278 BABIP.

Had he simply not played hurt the last two months, his overall numbers would've been much higher in 2016 and his 2017 wouldn't have looked so out of place. I hope he's a Turner, and not a one-year wonder but for what its worth, Yunel Escobar had a .739 OPS in two years with us, Valbuena at .727, Freese was at .723, and Callaspo was at .691. Figgins only was at .751 with us, though he had two years where he was at .789 and .825 which looks revolutionary at the position for us. Other notable 3rd baseman for the Angels include Maicer Izturis at .723 and Dallas McPhereson at .755 and of course Troy Glaus, who at .854 was the best we've had out of 3B in the last 20 years.

 

 

 

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