Chase Headley

[floplag]

Headley has a number of advantages whether people want to see them or not.  
#1 better defender  than what we currently have at 1B.
#2 can also backup 3B.  
#3 can also spot start in the OF and has played there in ML. 
#4 LH bat
#5 higher OBP.
He may not be a stud, but he fits the clubs needs literally to a T.   Esepcially with only 2 year left on his deal. 

The issue would be how you deal Valbuena.. i think Cron could be flipped easily. 

[tdawg87]

Now Begins To Chase Chase 2: Electric Boogaloo.

[Blarg]

Headley hasn't played the outfield since 2009. I don't see him as an option. 

[Docwaukee]

54 minutes ago, floplag said:

Headley has a number of advantages whether people want to see them or not.  
#1 better defender  than what we currently have at 1B.
#2 can also backup 3B.  
#3 can also spot start in the OF and has played there in ML. 
#4 LH bat
#5 higher OBP.
He may not be a stud, but he fits the clubs needs literally to a T.   Esepcially with only 2 year left on his deal. 

The issue would be how you deal Valbuena.. i think Cron could be flipped easily. 

#1 - disagree.  he's become a poor defender at both 1b and 3b

#2 - so can valbuena and he's cheaper

#3 - see #2

#4 - see #3

#5 - not by much.  And both Valbuena and Cron have a higher slg%.  

It's a lateral move at best.  He's basically Valbuena Blanco.  And he costs more.  Why go through the trouble?

If I'm getting ultra creative, I'd sign Moustakas to play 1b for 3/45.  Then I trade Cron and Valbuena for relief help or prospects.  Next year I move moose to 3b and Cozart to 2b.  But even that's a stretch.  

 

[Docwaukee]

BTW, I think people will be surprised at how they'll shelf Albert for other options if he doesn't perform.  That said, I think he'll be just good enough to justify his place in the lineup over Valbuena or Cron.  

[floplag]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

#1 - disagree.  he's become a poor defender at both 1b and 3b

#2 - so can valbuena and he's cheaper

#3 - see #2

#4 - see #3

#5 - not by much.  And both Valbuena and Cron have a higher slg%.  

It's a lateral move at best.  He's basically Valbuena Blanco.  And he costs more.  Why go through the trouble?

If I'm getting ultra creative, I'd sign Moustakas to play 1b for 3/45.  Then I trade Cron and Valbuena for relief help or prospects.  Next year I move moose to 3b and Cozart to 2b.  But even that's a stretch.  

 

if you want to get creative look at Morrison.  As for the rest,  you miss the point, he replaces BOTH of them, not one.  but its moot 

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, floplag said:

if you want to get creative look at Morrison.  As for the rest,  you miss the point, he replaces BOTH of them, not one.  but its moot 

Well you don’t need to have Cron, so he really isn’t replacing both.  He is also not really an upgrade and he is more expensive.  

[Inside Pitch]

Apparently anyone that sees Headley for what he actually is .vs the mythical beast some are trying to make him out to be is just blind or missing the point.

Meanwhile back in reality land ..  Headley is a more expensive, ill fitting piece (anywhere but at third base), who will require organizational currency to obtain.

Downgrading is the new upgrading it seems.

[Docwaukee]

53 minutes ago, floplag said:

if you want to get creative look at Morrison.  As for the rest,  you miss the point, he replaces BOTH of them, not one.  but its moot 

you missed the point.  Valbuena is just as good and cheaper.  Cron is expendable.  

[floplag]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

you missed the point.  Valbuena is just as good and cheaper.  Cron is expendable.  

 

9 hours ago, Stradling said:

Well you don’t need to have Cron, so he really isn’t replacing both.  He is also not really an upgrade and he is more expensive.  

 

We all know these  are at best an exaggeration if you look at the best splits from either, but its fine, and as said likely moot regardless.    Ill grant you there a few mil difference in the salaries but this roster is going to need flexibility. 

Simple question, is the team overall better with Morrison or Headley vs Cron / Valbuena?     Its an obvious place the club could improve, even if it isnt a real need per se. 

[Blarg]

I don't think there's any difference in the Angels season outcome if you swapped Cron and Valbuena for either of the two other candidates. 

[arch stanton]

Headley surely isn't worth $13 mil plus the trade pieces regardless of any potentially minuscule improvement he might represent

[Tank]

as someone else said, it's a lateral move. it's nothing that really makes this a better team. plus, he's expensive. pass.

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

 

 

We all know these  are at best an exaggeration if you look at the best splits from either

Could you please explain these splits? Thank you. 

[Tank]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Could you please explain these splits? Thank you. 

 

[floplag]

On 2/4/2018 at 10:32 AM, tdawg87 said:

Could you please explain these splits? Thank you. 

Well, which ones would you like?  
vs RH last season: 
CH :  279 / 373 / 788
LV:  210 / 305 / 765
CC:  253 / 309 / 724

vs LH last season:
CH :  260 / 299 / 708
LV:  105 / 213 / 424
CC:  233 / 280 / 790

The only place LV or CC top Headley is in CC OPS versus LH, but he still had a lower avg and obp versus them than Headley. 

Headley is a switch hitter who is clearly better from the left side but even if you just include the LH versus LH against LV its still comes out as follows:
CH:  279 / 373 / 778
LV:  199 / 294 / 726

Heck as a right hnader he was barely worse than Cron:
CH:  260  / 299 / 708
CC:  248 / 305 / 742

Yes, he has less power at this point, so it comes down to what does the club need more, guys one base, or guys knocking them in? 

[tdawg87]

59 minutes ago, floplag said:

Well, which ones would you like?  
vs RH last season: 
CH :  279 / 373 / 788
LV:  210 / 305 / 765
CC:  253 / 309 / 724

vs LH last season:
CH :  260 / 299 / 708
LV:  105 / 213 / 424
CC:  233 / 280 / 790

The only place LV or CC top Headley is in CC OPS versus LH, but he still had a lower avg and obp versus them than Headley. 

Headley is a switch hitter who is clearly better from the left side but even if you just include the LH versus LH against LV its still comes out as follows:
CH:  279 / 373 / 778
LV:  199 / 294 / 726

Heck as a right hnader he was barely worse than Cron:
CH:  260  / 299 / 708
CC:  248 / 305 / 742

Yes, he has less power at this point, so it comes down to what does the club need more, guys one base, or guys knocking them in? 

Thanks for providing those.

I think we have more than enough run producers. We need guys who can get on base. Overall, Headley is better but I don't think the difference is enough to warrant a change. I personally would rather just roll the dice on Valbuena rebounding and Cron hitting another 16 homeruns.

[Dtwncbad]

41 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Thanks for providing those.

I think we have more than enough run producers. We need guys who can get on base. Overall, Headley is better but I don't think the difference is enough to warrant a change. I personally would rather just roll the dice on Valbuena rebounding and Cron hitting another 16 homeruns.

Valbuena rebounding to what?  I am not a Valbuena hater at all.  I'm just honest about what he is.  Has power.  There is some value to that but his offensive game is very narrow.  When the team needs to get runners on and not make outs, Valbuena is a nightmare.

I love Valbuena as a pinch hitter when Angels need a 3-run homer.  Other than that he is going to disappoint.

And how is Cron going to get enough playing time to hit 16 homers?

My whole position on Headley replacing Valbuena and Cron is that Valbuena and Cron are currently slotted to make narrow contributions.  One guy can give the Angels enough value to contribute whatvthey are going to get out of those two.  Why waste an extra roster spot?

Also Headley has a contract attached to him but the Padres took on that money to get a prospect.  Im sure there is a way to make a deal that is money neutral.

But this was a speculative discussion that came from being annoyed that the Angels are using two roster spots for a second person to olay 1b and 3B.

It's not an obsession with Chase Headley.  He just seems like an easy target to address the issue.

 

[tdawg87]

22 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Valbuena rebounding to what?  I am not a Valbuena hater at all.  I'm just honest about what he is.  Has power.  There is some value to that but his offensive game is very narrow.  When the team needs to get runners on and not make outs, Valbuena is a nightmare.

I love Valbuena as a pinch hitter when Angels need a 3-run homer.  Other than that he is going to disappoint.

And how is Cron going to get enough playing time to hit 16 homers?

My whole position on Headley replacing Valbuena and Cron is that Valbuena and Cron are currently slotted to make narrow contributions.  One guy can give the Angels enough value to contribute whatvthey are going to get out of those two.  Why waste an extra roster spot?

Also Headley has a contract attached to him but the Padres took on that money to get a prospect.  Im sure there is a way to make a deal that is money neutral.

But this was a speculative discussion that came from being annoyed that the Angels are using two roster spots for a second person to olay 1b and 3B.

It's not an obsession with Chase Headley.  He just seems like an easy target to address the issue.

 

The previous 3 years, Valbuena had a 115, 106, and 125 OPS+ respectively. His batting average in 2018 was the lowest it has been since 2010. He's more of a .230-.240 hitter. Not good, but not awful either.

As for Cron, he's going to get his at bats. Just last year he had 16 HR in 339 at bats. 

Headley just isn't a good hitter anymore. In his 4 years in the little league park in NY he managed a 96 OPS+. His OBP is .333 since 2014. That's an improvement over Cron and Valbuena but when you consider his weak power numbers and non-existent speed things kind of even out. 

I realize we need guys to get on base but Headley is no longer really an OBP guy. Calhoun has a .330 OBP and I don't think people are looking at him as a table setter. 

It's just too lateral a move to make sense, in my opinion. Not to mention he's become more of a liability on defense. 

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

The previous 3 years, Valbuena had a 115, 106, and 125 OPS+ respectively. His batting average in 2018 was the lowest it has been since 2010. He's more of a .230-.240 hitter. Not good, but not awful either.

As for Cron, he's going to get his at bats. Just last year he had 16 HR in 339 at bats. 

Headley just isn't a good hitter anymore. In his 4 years in the little league park in NY he managed a 96 OPS+. His OBP is .333 since 2014. That's an improvement over Cron and Valbuena but when you consider his weak power numbers and non-existent speed things kind of even out. 

I realize we need guys to get on base but Headley is no longer really an OBP guy. Calhoun has a .330 OBP and I don't think people are looking at him as a table setter. 

It's just too lateral a move to make sense, in my opinion. Not to mention he's become more of a liability on defense. 

I understand your points but don't you think you are being optimistic on Valbuena and pessimistic on Headley?

I think it is fair to say that most people would view Headley as a better baseball player that Valbuena.

I know I would.

And given that, and that you would need another roster spot for Cron. . .

You get it.

It's not happening and that's fine.

Main point is the project of having to  manage the rotation of Ohtani/Pujols/Valbuena/Cron is kind of stupid. And takes up too many roster spots.

But that's what we have so lets see how it goes.

[floplag]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Thanks for providing those.

I think we have more than enough run producers. We need guys who can get on base. Overall, Headley is better but I don't think the difference is enough to warrant a change. I personally would rather just roll the dice on Valbuena rebounding and Cron hitting another 16 homeruns.

No, its not a huge difference, but factor in roster flexibility in that he replaces both opening up a spot for a pitcher in that 6 man rotation.  
Also factor in the cost of him versus both of the isnt much, assuming we could trade both of course.  
Its not earth shattering or glamorous for sure, but i think it makes the roster overall better.  

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, floplag said:

No, its not a huge difference, but factor in roster flexibility in that he replaces both opening up a spot for a pitcher in that 6 man rotation.  
Also factor in the cost of him versus both of the isnt much, assuming we could trade both of course.  
Its not earth shattering or glamorous for sure, but i think it makes the roster overall better.  

You can get the exact same roster flexibility by trading Cron and freeing up his spot.  

Edited February 5, 2018 by Stradling

[eaterfan]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

You can get the exact same roster flexibility by trading Cron and freeing up his spot.  

Yup. 

I don't think it's a great idea to only look at one year's numbers. It's also not a great idea to look at numbers not park adjusted.

Surprise! LHH puts up big numbers in Yankee Stadium!

OPS+, it's park adjusted:

2015: LV - 106, CH - 90

2016: LV - 125, CH - 91

2017: LV - 95, CH - 100

 

[Hubs]

Cron is likely the odd man out because Valbeuna can play 1st, 3rd, and even 2nd if needed, plus the corners in the OF if pressed. He's not going to play them well, but he can play them. Plus the Angels are very right handed with 7 regulars being righties and just Valbuena and Calhoun being righties. Ohtani likely doesn't DH when Valbuena plays except if Pujols or Cozart are off and Valbuena fills in there. So Max, you have four lefties in your lineup (Cowart playing 2nd), but one is a rookie, and the other three didn't hit above .245.

And remember, a roster's versatility in baseball is not just about having a set "backup" at every position. It's about having guys who can fill in occasionally and also pinch hit and pinch run, and do other things that are important to the roster construction. It's why if you consider Ohtani as a pitcher, you have Valbuena as your starter at 1B, then you get three backups (NOT INCLUDING VALBUENA).

Those three are likely a right handed hitting backup OF, a switch hitting infielder capable of playing all four positions, and a backup C. PLUS Ohtani, which effectively makes this a four man bench. And you'll basically have a 5 man bench when the occasional bench guy is brought up and BP arm sent down.

Still, remember that the roster is really 40 players, and that guys playing in SLC can be there the next day, if needed, so all it takes is a versatile bench to finish the game, and then you can call up whomever you need.

All that being said, Cron is likely traded.

 

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

You can get the exact same roster flexibility by trading Cron and freeing up his spot.  

Can  you?  Dont recall Valbuena being able to play the OF? 
Besides thats just one of the benefits/improvements. 
There is almost no way he doesnt make us better than we are gith now, you want to argue how much, fine, but you cant argue Vableuna would put up the same numbers anywhere other than home runs, which i concede he probably would, at a cost of 75 or more points of average and near 100 in OBP.  
Again its not a huge upgrade, but it is an upgrade.