Trades and Free Agency in next couple years

[Dtwncbad]

The Angels are going to have to sign a couple of premiere free agents in the next couple of years or trade some minor leaguers for a couple of premium players.

It has been a while since the Angels have had a decent group of minor leaguers advancing as they do now.

It is nice to not have an empty cupboard.

But the main observation I am making is the team is building some volume of prospects but there is an issue.

Even if they all reach their potential there are not enough high impact players.  Many of them have ceilings of being pedestrian major leaguers.

The Angels surely do not have a goal of having an entirely homegrown team that wins 82 games.

Is seems like we will need to see a couple of premium free agent signings and at least one major trade of a group of 4 prospects for one high impact major leaguer.

I liked the Stoneman philosophy of hoarding minor leaguers to have resources, except he then wouldn't trade any of them for anything.

The Angels should at some point be willing to make a deal for the right high impact player.

Graduating a whole class of players to the majors in 2020ish is great, but ultimately wins and losses matter so you have to be careful to not end up with all (generally speaking) low impact players.

How many Angel prospects are potential All Star level players or even close?

Be honest.  One maybe?  Are you comfortable saying more than that?

 

 

[Mark68]

Hey, according to mlb.com, we have 4 prospects in the top 100...granted all of the non-Ohtani members are in the bottom half, but that IS progress!

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018

[Dtwncbad]

It is progress but notice where they reside in those rankings is far closer to 100 than 1.

The Angels have projectable future major leaguers, yes, but it is fair to notice that they might be just OK playYes,

How many games does a major league team win if they have a volume of OK players?

 

[Stradling]

I guess it depends on who you believe.  If you believe comparisons like Jam Jones could be the next Mcutchen or Adell could be the next Buxton or Maitan bat was compared to Miggy Cabrera’s bat at a similar age.  Now I have zero idea if any of those things happen.  My guess would be one, Adell, will be something special. I think Ohtani is the guy that most believe is a special player.  But yes they will have to trade a couple, there isn’t four more outfield spots available. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

I agree that we will need to sign impact guys, but i think thats still a ways down the road. In the short term, the priority is seeing whether or not our pitching is healthy. That will dictate what we need to focus on aquiring the next 2 years.

After that will be a long term solution at 3B/2B. We still need to see if Cozart can play here. If he can, great, we solve one of those spots. But kinsler is a short term fix.

Outfield is set for a good amount of time, but Trout is the absolute guy we should be focused on in terms of impact player "signings".

 

[UndertheHalo]

The Angels just need to stay the course and continue to deepening the farm system.  Having lots of good prospects takes care of most problems.  It’s a lot easier when you have guys to bring up and guys to trade.  That’s the bottom line.  Ten Ocho is right, we’re getting pretty near the point where the top contract priority is Trout.  I think that becomes the overriding issue exactly 2 seconds after Harper signs his contract.  

I hope to not see the Angels in a place again where we have to try and pretend that some garbage piece like Kyle Kubitza is going to be a good player. 

Edited January 30, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[red321]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I agree that we will need to sign impact guys, but i think thats still a ways down the road. In the short term, the priority is seeing whether or not our pitching is healthy. That will dictate what we need to focus on aquiring the next 2 years.

After that will be a long term solution at 3B/2B. We still need to see if Cozart can play here. If he can, great, we solve one of those spots. But kinsler is a short term fix.

Outfield is set for a good amount of time, but Trout is the absolute guy we should be focused on in terms of impact player "signings".

 

Pretty sure Kozart is the "mid term" solution at 2b. I would expect they signed him with the idea that he would move to 2b if Kinsler leaves after this season.

[Docwaukee]

We actually have a lot of very high ceiling prospects.  probably as many as any other team out there.  Adell, Jones, Marsh, Maitan, Rodriguez, Deveaux.  All have all-star potential but are so young it's hard to tell where they'll land.  But to your point, they're at least two full seasons away before making significant contributions at the major league level.  

The one big money guy that would fit well on this team next year is Machado, but I just don't see the team spending the $350mil+ to get him when Trout is due for an extension.  

The OF is set for a few years.  Cozart and Simmons each have 3 more years.  I think Eppler is going to treat 1b and C like he treats the bullpen.  No big money unless on short term deals.  We'll continue to pursue high end defense at the C position.  1b will be stop gaps.  

I would like to think Eppler sees how long term 1b contracts have ended up as some of the worst in major league history.  Pujols, Chris Davis, Miggy, Fielder, Mauer, Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez and a few others.  Votto has been good so far but he's still got 6 years left of age 34-39 at 157mil.  My guess is that contract will be on this list at some point.  Honestly, I am not sure there is a good one.  

You just can't recoup enough value from 1b due to defensive restrictions and when those players get moved to DH, it makes it even worse.  

But 1b is going to be a position of need unless Cron breaks out (which I doubt.  he probably is what he is at this point).  So I see us making a move for 1b and one of 2b/3b via trade.  

I could also see us extending Richards but if we're going to add anything via free agency, I think it will be starting pitching.  

[Hubs]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

It is progress but notice where they reside in those rankings is far closer to 100 than 1.

The Angels have projectable future major leaguers, yes, but it is fair to notice that they might be just OK playYes,

How many games does a major league team win if they have a volume of OK players?

 

These Rankings often rank a player closer to the majors closer to the top. As the level of competition increases, players that are highly ranked maintain their success from the lower minors, or have a breakout year. It is not often that a player is at the top of the rankings as a single A or rookie ball player. This is where most of the top prospects for the Angels currently are.

Here is the 2018 top ten list, most of these guys we will see in 2018 or latest 2019 in some capacity.

1. Shohei Ohtani, RHP/OF, Angels (INTL)
2. Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves (AAA)
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays (A+)
4. Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox (AA)
5. Gleyber Torres, INF, Yankees (AAA)
6. Victor Robles, OF, Nationals (Played in MLB in 2017)
7. Nick Senzel, 3B, Reds (AA)
8. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres (FInished 2017 at AA)
9. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros (FInished 2017 at AA)
10. Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox (Finished 2017 at AAA)

Often a player will skyrocket when they go from A+ to AA and have success.

Trout was ranked #85 and jumped to #1/#2 after his 2011.

https://www.mlb.com/news/breaking-down-the-top-100-prospects-list/c-265365394?tid=151437456

This article breaks down the list and talks about first timers on the list, high jumps on the list (which we will see after 2018).

I bet the Angels top 5 guys will be all inside the top #50 after 2018. Between 2017 and 2018 lists, 31 guys graduated to the majors or lost prospect status. Also a player can make up a huge climb up the list as Acuna was outside the top 100 and is now ranked #2.

I like these lists, but they are far from telling the whole picture of the Angels or any minor league system.

 

 

 

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

I think the main focus for next year will be pitching and either 2nd or 3rd. with the way free agency has changed this off-season, i would not be surprised to see a few of the prospects getting traded. 

most importantly these moves will relate to; if Richards can stay healthy and we resign him, if either Skaggs/ Heaney can breakout or return to pre-injured form. If Richard's gets hurt and neither Skaggs/ Heaney breakout that will put more pressure on us to trade/ or thru free agency, to get atleast 2 pitchers. 

and to cap it off, i think we'll get one of Archer, Duffy or a pitcher of a similar tier sometimes this year.

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

We actually have a lot of very high ceiling prospects.  probably as many as any other team out there.  Adell, Jones, Marsh, Maitan, Rodriguez, Deveaux.  All have all-star potential but are so young it's hard to tell where they'll land.  But to your point, they're at least two full seasons away before making significant contributions at the major league level.  

The one big money guy that would fit well on this team next year is Machado, but I just don't see the team spending the $350mil+ to get him when Trout is due for an extension.  

The OF is set for a few years.  Cozart and Simmons each have 3 more years.  I think Eppler is going to treat 1b and C like he treats the bullpen.  No big money unless on short term deals.  We'll continue to pursue high end defense at the C position.  1b will be stop gaps.  

I would like to think Eppler sees how long term 1b contracts have ended up as some of the worst in major league history.  Pujols, Chris Davis, Miggy, Fielder, Mauer, Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez and a few others.  Votto has been good so far but he's still got 6 years left of age 34-39 at 157mil.  My guess is that contract will be on this list at some point.  Honestly, I am not sure there is a good one.  

You just can't recoup enough value from 1b due to defensive restrictions and when those players get moved to DH, it makes it even worse.  

But 1b is going to be a position of need unless Cron breaks out (which I doubt.  he probably is what he is at this point).  So I see us making a move for 1b and one of 2b/3b via trade.  

I could also see us extending Richards but if we're going to add anything via free agency, I think it will be starting pitching.  

Everyone has their own opinion but I believe it is much more realistic that maybe one of those players you name will become an All Star.

And that is exactly my point.  But to repeat it's just my opinion.

(I don't want to argue individual players, and I hope I am 100% wrong because being wrong would be great for the Angels.)

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

It is progress but notice where they reside in those rankings is far closer to 100 than 1.

The Angels have projectable future major leaguers, yes, but it is fair to notice that they might be just OK playYes,

How many games does a major league team win if they have a volume of OK players?

The flip side argument is obviously...   Did you also notice they aren't yet close to contributing?   

It's a net positive that some guys are considered among the best in the minors at age 18-19.  There is a strong likelihood that we see a couple others enter the top 100, we may see a guy or two fall off as well -- it's too early to make any definitive statement about what they are or will be right now.   Not that you are doing that.

Personally, I'm hoping they DO add in FA because IMO they lack the top to bottom depth to call the farm system a finished product.   The success of the Stoneman era farm system wasn't that the guys getting the press all hit, it's that when they failed -- the guys immediately behind them broke through to become quality MLB players.  To get there they will need to add to the talent base at the MLB without draining the farm system.  

I'm as happy as everyone else that the farm is improving but I agree they need to add to the mix in coming years.

Where and how much we will know soon enough.

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, red321 said:

Pretty sure Kozart is the "mid term" solution at 2b. I would expect they signed him with the idea that he would move to 2b if Kinsler leaves after this season.

Yeah, i think thats the case, too. Or, they may keep him at 3rd. But one of those positions will habe to be filled as soon as next year, snd we still dont kmow what we're getting out of him.

[Angel Oracle]

Seeing Vlad Jr. #3 and Baldoquin probably #4003, makes me want to call Dipussy every bad name in the book.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

11 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

How many Angel prospects are potential All Star level players or even close?

Be honest.  One maybe?  Are you comfortable saying more than that?

Adell has 25 HR potential.

The Angels haven't produced an impact type talent internally since Mike Trout made his way to Los Angeles. While it would be completely unfair to compare Jahmai Jones to the perennial MVP candidate, the organization is nearly as excited about the 2015 second-round pick's future as they were about their 2009 first-rounder

Brandon Marsh needs reps and to get on the field so he can start sharpening his raw tools and reach his considerable ceiling. If it all clicks, he has a chance to be a five-tool player manning an outfield spot in the big leagues on a daily basis.

There 3 or 4 pitchers that show promise in the wings as well.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I could also see us extending Richards but if we're going to add anything via free agency, I think it will be starting pitching.

We need to replace Kinsler at 2B next year, or depending on how well he does this year maybe give him another year.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm as happy as everyone else that the farm is improving but I agree they need to add to the mix in coming years.

Where and how much we will know soon enough.

Other than replacing Kinsler and extending Trout I doubt we can afford any impact free agents until Pujols comes off the books.

[Revad]

I think we'll see Donaldson added next year, buying pitchers is too risky.

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

You’re too kind.

Maybe 

Although there are only what, some 5000 minor leaguers?

[totdprods]

It's kinda nutty and futile to try and predict a few years' worth of moves, but I'll throw an idea out there. 
I'm actually of the opinion we move a little more aggressively in trades and spending this offseason and a little bit the next, and then dial it back.

'17-'18 Offseason 

• Sign another SP; Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, or Garcia
• Offer a handful of minor league invites to Abad, Ross, Krol, Holmberg, Romo, Rondon, de la Rosa, Liriano, Watson, Siegrist, Rosenthal, Norris, Moylan - hope a couple break camp with the team. 
• Offer Carlos Perez over to the Twins for Luke Bard 
• Sign one more FA infielder; Frazier, Nunez, Morrison, Walker, or deal for Headley, provided they drop to a 'bargain' deal in this market.
• Offer Cron for Profar, if  that doesn't fly, deal him for a 4th OF (Oakland's Boog Powell?) or a fringey left-handed RP with options (Tampa's Jose Alvarado?)
• If your FA infielder or Cron return doesn't land someone who can cover 4th OF, re-sign Ben Revere.
• SP: Richards, Yu/Jake/Alex, Ohtani, Skaggs, Shoemaker (AAA: Heaney, Bridwell, Tropeano, Barria)
  Pen: Ramirez, 2-3 minor league guys, Parker, Bedrosian, Wood, Johnson, Alvarez (AAA: Paredes, Middleton, Jewell, Castillo, Diaz, Pena)
  Lineup: 2B Kinsler, RF Calhoun, CF Trout, LF Upton, 1B Pujols, SS Simmons, 3B, Cozart, DH Ohtani, C Maldonado
  Bench: C Rivera, CIF Valbuena, your Cron return (Profar/4th OF) or Ben Revere, and your FA signee (LoMo, Frazier, Nunez, Walker, Headley)

2018 Season

• Lean on Shoemaker, Heaney, Skaggs, Bridwell, Tropeano, or even Richards if we sign Darvish or Arrieta (keep reading) as trade bait if we need help at 2B or 3B in case Kinsler or Cozart flop or get hurt.
• Keep building the farm and hold onto prospects, but we should have enough OF depth to deal from our stock there if needed for someone with some true impact/long-term value for a playoff push.
• Get as many of the Hermosillo, Thaiss, Fernandez, Fletcher, and Ward group up for some playing time before the year is out, even if just a Sept. call-up. Gonna need to clear out some roomI on 40-man to do so, so may be some tough DFAs, especially from the bullpen. Maybe swap out Graterol or Rivera for Ward mid-season.

'18-'19 Offseason

• If he wasn't dealt, let Richards walk. If he had a mediocre/injury-shortened season, offer him something fair to keep some depth. Save the money, pull an arm up from the '18 SP depth at AAA.
• Re-sign Scioscia to a 2-yr deal with a 3rd yr. mutual option.
• Extend Billy Eppler. 
• Let Kinsler walk unless he really killed it - offer him a one-year deal if he did, but no more. Save the money and count on Fletcher, Fernandez, and Cowart as some new cheap depth or your signing from previous offseason.
• Re-sign Maldonado to a 1 or 2 year deal, probably around $10m AAV. If he goes above that, nab another vet backstop (Grandal? Rivera? Avila? Flowers?) on a one-year and install Ward as back-up.
• Barring an absolute disaster of a year, pick-up Valbuena's option and count on him as your bench 1B/3B.
• If any two of Valbuena, Maldonado, Kinsler, and your 'bargain' bench bat are let go, spend a bit and sign DJ LeMahieu to a 3-yr, $39m deal for 2B or 3B. 
• Toy with the idea of Josh Donaldson if he drops to 4/$80m, especially if your 'bargain' bench guy was a 1-year deal, Nunez, or if any combo of Cozart, Ohtani, Pujols, Upton, or Calhoun struggle to hit.
• This offseason is largely about saving money for a Trout extension. Offer him a deal that takes him around 8/$320m, or something that takes to around age 35 (+/- a year or two) around $40m AAV (+/- a few more $). If it's not ballpark or is an outright rejection, as in he plans to test FA regardless of the offer, quietly start to take stock of guys on prospect-rich teams, especially Philly.
• SP: Ohtani, Yu/Jake/Alex, rounded out by whomever remains of Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Bridwell, Tropeano, and Barria.
  If everyone was healthy and there's heavy surplus, shop an arm for an infielder.  If health or production was an issue, consider a one-year vet like McCarthy, Sabathia, Gio Gonzalez, Tomlin, Happ
  Pen: Bedrosian, Parker, Middleton, Paredes, Bard, lean on youth. Eppler doesn't seem to spend money on the pen, but we're saving elsewhere generally so he could buy an arm.
  Lineup: 2B/3B LeMahieu or previous signing, RF Calhoun, CF Trout, LF Upton, 1B Pujols, SS Simmons, 2B/3B Cozart, DH Ohtani, C Maldy/Grandal/Flowers
  Bench: C Ward, CIF Valbuena, previous FA signee or Cowart, Fernandez, Thaiss, or Fletcher, 4th OF is Hermosillo, Liriano, or that aforementioned Cron return (Profar/Powell), or a minor signing/waiver claim.

2019 Season

• This is the season where we expect to see some benefit from holding onto our prospects. Have Thaiss, Fletcher, Hermosillo, Jones, and Barria start the year in AAA and build chemistry. 
• Be an opportunistic seller with Cozart, Calhoun, Maldonado/vet C, maybe a SP, maybe Bedrosian, your '17-'18 bargain bench player, Valbuena, and your 4th OF depending on who is producing in SLC.
• If a Simmons, Yelich, or Archer-type player , pull the trigger and deal a couple folks away.

'19-'20 Offseason

• Hey, it's time to win a World Series if we haven't yet. We're buyers now that everyone blew their load in the crazy offseason prior. 
• First order, acquire another front-line SP. We'll either have plenty of prospects to shop with, or we can spend on potential FAs like Cole, Sale, Bumgardner, Miller, Wacha, Gray, or Pineda.
• Trade off Kole for prospects, it's Jones/Hermosillo time, perhaps a platoon or one as our 4th OF
• I imagine by now one of Skaggs, Shoemaker, or Heaney will have either been dealt or moved to the pen, but we may need to clear some room by dealing one here as well. 
• Let Valbuena walk, as well as our 'bargain bench' bat from two offseasons prior, if they're around. 
• Try again for a Trout extension if it didn't work before. Stick to $40m AAV (+/- a few mil) but go ahead and offer a couple extra years, maybe through age 37/38, something like a 10/$400m.If the org has completely 180ed and Trout seems hesitant, exchange names with some orgs. 
• SP: Ohtani, new TORP acqusition, rounded out with who remains from Shoemaker, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Castillo, Canning
  Pen: Bedrosian, Middleton, Paredes, Parker, Jewell literally anyone by now.
  Lineup: 2B/3B LeMahieu or previous signing, RF Jones/Herm, CF Trout, LF Upton, DH Ohtani/Pujols, SS Simmons, 1B Thaiss, 2B/3B Cozart, C Ward
  Bench: C vet catcher, IF Fletcher, OF Herm/Jones/Lund, 1B/DH Ohtani - can afford some vet bench help if prospects have been traded or are yet unproven.

2020 Season

• Hope that by this point, guys like Maitan, Adell, Marsh, Rivas, Rodriguez - as well as any trade returns we've acquired and '18-'19 draft picks - are starting to reach the AA/AAA clubs. If Trout leaves after this season, this crop is our new future, and we probably undergo a brief '20-'21 growing pain season as we start blending in this youth.
• If the team isn't competitive and Trout is intent on testing FA, keep an open mind, as any potential prospects we could receive could join our next wave mentioned above. Weigh offers on any vet with a salary.
• If the team is competitive and Trout has been extended or the Angels feel optimistic about retaining him, stand pat. Save those prospects. 

'20-'21 Offseason

• This is it. If Trout, who will be going into his age 29 season in 2021, hasn't signed yet, make one last 8-10 year offer around $40 AAV. I can't see the Angels being able to realistically make something north of that work even if we've kept all of our prospects and they're MLB-ready and productive by now. 
• Skaggs, Shoemaker, Simmons, Parker, and Cozart are all set to hit FA this year. Pujols, Heaney and Bedrosian the year after. Upton the year after.
• Unless he's rocking and rolling somehow, quietly encourage Pujols to retire or offer a buy-out, as he'll be restricted to PH role only. Upton is the new full-time DH. 
• Stick with low/mid-tier FAs to fill any needs. Let the youth play out where they can.
• SP: Ohtani, prior TORP acquisition, Heaney, Barria, Canning - Rodriguez, Duensing, Soriano, Yan, Rivera looming.
  Pen: Bedrosian, who knows. 
  Lineup: 2B/3B LeMahieu or Fletcher/Fernandez, RF Hermosillo, CF Trout/Jones, LF Lund/Jones, DH Upton, 1B Thaiss, SS Simmons (hope he's re-signed), C Ward, 2B/3B Fletcher/Fernandez
  Bench: Some vet help, but sprinkle in youth where possible to start getting playing time