Source: Angels "have to be" in on Darvish

[Rico]

10 minutes ago, Dollar Bill said:

Those are MLB rights, not the Angels' rights. International broadcast rights fees are shared revenue (with an exception for the Blue Jays in the Toronto market).

Ah, thanks for clearing that up for me.  

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

I do believe that @totdprodsis right in that if the Angels do indeed sign Darvish, they'd let Richards walk (assuming a healthy year) and collect a draft pick while replacing him with a low cost option like Barria.

i don't see that as likely, in the sense that they let him walk like they did with torii, which means without offering him a contract.

all the work and rehabilitation they've endured with richards and they just let him walk once he's healthy and effective? 

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

I'm down for it. The market isn't playing out as big as most thought it would so if we can get him on a good deal; lets do it. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

The only issue I have with this is the “citing him since high school” narrative.  The entire front office has turned over the last three years.  Unless your source is saying the Angels are in on him because Eppler has courted him since high school.  I’m not trying to say it isn’t so, I just don’t get that part.  

Eppler courted Ohtani since High School also, he visited Japan several times with the Yankee organization. It isn't hard to imagine he didn't do the same with same with Darvish.

[ten ocho recon scout]

7 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Speaking with someone unaffiliated with the team, he says the Angels have to be in on Darvish, citing that they've been courting him since he was in high school.

So we went overseas. To asia. To court a high schooler.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I do believe that @totdprodsis right in that if the Angels do indeed sign Darvish, they'd let Richards walk (assuming a healthy year) and collect a draft pick while replacing him with a low cost option like Barria.

To get a draft pick we need to give Richards a QO, and he needs to sign somewhere else for at least $50M in total contract. Also I think Richards has the potential to be better than Darvish. I hope he pitches like in 2014 and we extend his contract.

[totdprods]

8 hours ago, arch stanton said:

We can't be top flight at every position. If they spend $20 mil a season for a pitcher then we get lower tier CI's

If Jones or Herm keep it up, you could also look at moving Calhoun for a MLB-ready 2B/3B prospect next offseason and go with rookies in RF, maybe sign a good vet 4th OF as a safety net. That would clear money and give you a cheap option for the infield.

It will take some creativity and some luck with things breaking right, but theoretically they can make the contract work. 

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

To get a draft pick we need to give Richards a QO, and he needs to sign somewhere else for at least $50M in total contract. Also I think Richards has the potential to be better than Darvish. I hope he pitches like in 2014 and we extend his contract.

My thoughts on Richards in '18...

He either makes it through the whole year healthy - and if he does, regardless of his performance (even if he has a just 'okay' year), he will probably get a solid deal along the lines of what Lynn or Cobb make this year, at a minimum (and maybe enough to score a pick from a QO), and a lot more if he pitches to his ceiling all year.  Either outcome, he becomes our highest-paid pitcher, and by a good margin, barring a FA signing this offseason. And he will be 31 the first year of that new contract - just a year younger than Darvish. Do we want to be paying a 34-year old Richards $15-18m in three years, when we're at the Trout threshold? Love the guy, but I'm afraid it's difficult to see much of a path for him after this year, even if we don't sign an arm.

If he has another year of questionable health and misses numerous starts, the Angels will have a shot at keeping him, but at that point, you cannot in good faith expect him to be a regular rotation option. Despite his TORP upside, he becomes a depth option just like what we can expect from someone like JC Ramirez this year. You place a price on that type of pitcher, offer it to Richards, and if he rejects it, you walk away. He's made $1m a start for the last two years and will have made $20m+ between '16-'18, so it's not like he's been shorted by the Angels in any way. 

I think best case scenario is Richards gives us 30 starts at TORP level, we collect a draft pick in the offseason, Ohtani ascends to dominant #1 his sophomore campaign, Skaggs finds his ceiling as a #2, Heaney finds his as a #3, and league-minimum guys like Bridwell and Barria prove capable of giving us 25+ starts of at least league-average production for the foreseeable future, with Canning right behind. That's a realistic outcome - if you're still a little leery of it playing out like that, well now you see where signing someone like Darvish fits into the equation. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

I for one say keep him, Ace type pitchers are a rare commodity and should held as long as possible as long as they remain healthy. There have been a lot of quality 35 to 38 and even some 40 and beyond year old pitchers.

[totdprods]

18 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

I for one say keep him, Ace type pitchers are a rare commodity and should held as long as possible as long as they remain healthy. There have been a lot of quality 35 to 38 and even some 40 and beyond year old pitchers.

Richards was identified as being fairly high-injury risk even before all of his injuries though. In seven MLB seasons, he's made it a full year in the rotation once - yes, I'm aware he was a reliever in most and a rookie in others. Even if he makes it through the whole year healthy, how much would you pay for a 31-year free agent who has had as many injuries as Garrett? I have a hard time seeing Garrett suddenly turning into a durable SP in his 30s.

This board would lose their shit if we signed a pitcher with his track record to a multi-year deal at anything more than $10m annually next offseason. 

If he makes it through the year, sure, 3/$48m or 4/$60m even, but more than that gets super-dicey. I think Alex Cobb's contract this offseason will be a good comp for Richards, unless Garrett goes nuts and starts 30 games of 2.75 ERA ball. 

[Stradling]

31 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

I for one say keep him, Ace type pitchers are a rare commodity and should held as long as possible as long as they remain healthy. There have been a lot of quality 35 to 38 and even some 40 and beyond year old pitchers.

But how many of them relied on a 97 mph fastball. 

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

But how many of them relied on a 97 mph fastball. 

With an inverted W

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

With an inverted W

Wouldn't an inverted W just be an M?

[Angelsfan1984]

10 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Wouldn't an inverted W just be an M?

I always say the same thing to myself!

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

But how many of them relied on a 97 mph fastball. 

Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Lefty Grove, Roger Clemens, Walter Johnson, and Goose Gossage (RP).

Garret could live with a 92+ fastball with his slider, and change up mix. I just think he will be hard to replace.

[VariousCrap]

32 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Lefty Grove, Roger Clemens, Walter Johnson, and Goose Gossage (RP).

Garret could live with a 92+ fastball with his slider, and change up mix. I just think he will be hard to replace.

 

Richards isn't even close to being on the same level as the guys you just mentioned.  Come on now...

[VariousCrap]

I don't think the Angels will get Darvish, but if they do, that would be exciting.  I wouldn't offer him more than 5/100 though.  As for the Luxury Tax, Darvish is the type of pitcher you are willing to go over it for.

[nando714]

Ohtani

darvish

Ichrio off the bench

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, nando714 said:

Ohtani

darvish

Ichrio off the bench

Ohtani gets a pitching and hitting mentor.

[floplag]

I personally still dont think Darvish gets 20 mil per and will end up closer to 15ish.  I could be wrong, but there isnt exactly a feeding frenzy going on for these top arms with literally ALL of them still in FA. 

Were using early FA logic and projections at this point and thats simply not the actual market.  Teams are looking at trades over FA signings and simply dont want to spend.  The prices will come down, and i suspect we could get him AND stay under the threshold if thats something they are looking at.  

How many teams can afford him and it would be worth it to at this point at he proposed 20M?  He may have 5 or 6 offers but its clear none of them are all that or he wouldnt still be out there.  If any of them had offered 20M per he would have signed. 

I also go back to what i heard some time back the he and Othani are closer than most think, and it could also be literally wanted to avoid the image of any kind of collusion, but thats speculation on my part. 

[Stradling]

@floplag if he wants $20 + million a year he will get it.  I’m guessing he’s already got those types of offers.  What’s the rush for any of them?  If most everyone had signed then sure it’s late in the game, but since none have signed, it’s no different than late November.  

[Spirit]

5 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

So we went overseas. To asia. To court a high schooler.

 

Do they even sell wine coolers in Asia?

 

 

(asking for Adam)

 

[HaloCory22]

The more I've thought about it the more I'm down to give him a short 3 year/$90-100 deal. The AAV of $33 could be enough to get the deal done. Maybe a 4th year option that kicks in if an innings limit is reached. A 3 year deal doesn't hinder us at all. It'll be done by the time Trout's deal comes through. Pujols will be on his way out too. Doesn't cost us a pick either. 

[bloodbrother]

Should look good in Yankees pinstripes

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, HaloCory22 said:

The more I've thought about it the more I'm down to give him a short 3 year/$90-100 deal. The AAV of $33 could be enough to get the deal done. Maybe a 4th year option that kicks in if an innings limit is reached. A 3 year deal doesn't hinder us at all. It'll be done by the time Trout's deal comes through. Pujols will be on his way out too. Doesn't cost us a pick either. 

Too much strain on both the annual payroll and the luxury tax payroll. 
Drawing it out into a 5-6 year deal will be better in this instance actually - lower the AAV and back-load it to help both payroll figures.