Not done? pure speculation

[ettin]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

For sure he's financially superior - but he's not much good if he misses 18 months in the middle of our Trout window. 

And to be clear, I'm totally aware there's no surefire indication of a TJS risk, but over the last few years, even before it hit the Angels, I started thinking that if I were a baseball GM, I would operate with the assumption that 1) I'm going to lose 1-2 arms to TJS this year 2) anyone on my staff who hasn't had one is likely to have one 3) I'm going to consider that acquiring pitchers as well, and lean more towards arms who have already had it, rather than risk making a move only to have 18-24 months of production go down the shitter.

That financial flexibility won't mean much if we're needing to replace Archer and spend more to fill the rotation. 

And again, he's thrown a lot of innings and left a start in Sept. with forearm tightness. Red flags. Tampa's known to be selling and yet Archer remains, so not sure teams are too comfortable with the price or the risk.

This is why teams perform full medical evaluations before any signing or trade. If his arm looks good you can't predict when a tear will occur. Also it has been medically shown that the biggest precursor of an injury is a PREVIOUS injury! I would be careful investing too much into your theory that heavy use correlates with injury it has not been proven to be the case based on the medical literature on the subject.

[krAbs]

2 minutes ago, ettin said:

This is why teams perform full medical evaluations before any signing or trade. If his arm looks good you can't predict when a tear will occur. Also it has been medically shown that the biggest precursor of an injury is a PREVIOUS injury! I would be careful investing too much into your theory that heavy use correlates with injury it has not been proven to be the case based on the medical literature on the subject.

Right - I was just going to post this:
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2016/01/predicting-pitcher-injuries/

 

Its not super clear from this article what precisely the connection between past TJS and future TJS is. But, its clear that once you've had it, you're not out of the woods.

[AngelsLakersFan]

36 minutes ago, totdprods said:

For sure he's financially superior - but he's not much good if he misses 18 months in the middle of our Trout window. 

And to be clear, I'm totally aware there's no surefire indication of a TJS risk, but over the last few years, even before it hit the Angels, I started thinking that if I were a baseball GM, I would operate with the assumption that 1) I'm going to lose 1-2 arms to TJS this year 2) anyone on my staff who hasn't had one is likely to have one 3) I'm going to consider that acquiring pitchers as well, and lean more towards arms who have already had it, rather than risk making a move only to have 18-24 months of production go down the shitter.

That financial flexibility won't mean much if we're needing to replace Archer and spend more to fill the rotation. 

And again, he's thrown a lot of innings and left a start in Sept. with forearm tightness. Red flags. Tampa's known to be selling and yet Archer remains, so not sure teams are too comfortable with the price or the risk.

Pitchers about 4 years out from TJ surgery are at the highest risk. 

[Hubs]

Yes, If Archer is damaged, I wouldn't want him. But nowhere else is there a pitcher with that track record who is also that inexpensive. I wasn't watching a lot of TB Rays games in the last year, don't play Fantasy Baseball, so I don't always see news like this.

 

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

6 hours ago, KDWells said:

I personally don't see Cutch or Headley being big enough upgrades to justify making those moves at this point. If the Angels were hellbent on moving on from Cron/Valbuena I would rather just see them sign a guy like Logan Morrison instead of a stopgap like Headley playing out of position. 

There is a pretty good chance that Calhoun and Cutch put up similar numbers next year and Calhoun is better defensively which adds to his value. I do not see a huge upgrade to Calhoun out there on the market right now so I don't see the Angels making a move for RF unless Eppler is in love with a longterm solution guy like Clint Frazier and tries to swing a deal of that nature.

No one of an upgrade to Cron or Luis will want to share time with Pujols at 1B.

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, krAbs said:

Right - I was just going to post this:
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2016/01/predicting-pitcher-injuries/

Its not super clear from this article what precisely the connection between past TJS and future TJS is. But, its clear that once you've had it, you're not out of the woods.

Right, but how often are 2nd TJS happening in MLB ? I'm aware there's no data suggesting that once you've have one you're at less risk, but it simply doesn't happen as often. It's the best we got right now. 

And pre-acquisition screenings and medical tests aren't any better at predicting what can happen. 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Pitchers about 4 years out from TJ surgery are at the highest risk. 

Wat

[krAbs]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Right, but how often are 2nd TJS happening in MLB ? I'm aware there's no data suggesting that once you've have one you're at less risk, but it simply doesn't happen as often. It's the best we got right now. 

And pre-acquisition screenings and medical tests aren't any better at predicting what can happen. 

Its less about the total number of 2nd TJS happening and more about the percentage of them compared to the percentage of players who got there first TJS. Like...if you take 500 pitchers, and 50 of them get TJS, and only 7 of those players get a second TJS, that means that a player who has had TJS is 40% more likely to get TJS than a random pitcher who has not gotten it yet is. Basically, out of the pool of 500, 10% were having TJS. But, out of that pool of 50, 14% were getting TJS. So, if the general population of pitchers were that likely to get it a second time, you would have 70 pitchers getting their first TJS instead of just 50. So, its less about how often you have someone getting the second one, because its a much smaller group of people who "qualify" to get it a second time. The rate is much more important here.

*As I mentioned before (and as is obvious with these numbers), we are dealing with some serious sample size risks here.
**I have no idea how close any of these percentages are to real life.
***I'm not 100% sure that the above is correct in regards to TJS. Its possible that in reality, of the 50 pitchers, only 3 of them would have gotten it a second time, in which case you would be better off having a pitcher who has had TJS in the past. But, my understanding is that that is not true, based on the data we have so far.
****It's kind of weirding me out that a change in 4% likelihood raises the number by 40% here, but that is because the initial likelihood is so low - 4% is 40% of 10%.

[totdprods]

I'll admit that I haven't deep-dived into all like of it, and I appreciate the data being provided and it is interesting to read. I'm just basing my thoughts off what I've been aware of as a fairly avid baseball follower.

There definitely is a portion of the pitcher population that just seems doomed and almost inevitably will go through 2 TJS (if I recall? I think Isringhausen made it through three!) but it seems like a small group, and of those, it seems like guys who are almost always perennially cursed with some malady, not someone like Darvish (watch, he'll need two now) who rebounded and has been healthy since. 

Archer just seems ripe to be at high-risk, especially with the Angels recent run of luck. I'm not a chicken little type, but even this offseason (Meyer, Smith going down, Ramirez and Shoemaker having issues, Ohtani coming with reports of UCL damage, even if normal wear and tear) has me erring on the side of caution and operating under the assumption to fear the worst and assume it will happen. And I'm not worried about it, it's unpredictable. You just do what you can as a GM to weigh the risk and have an insurance plan.

[Turd Ferguson]

My pipe dream addition is Schwarber. Maybe teach him some 1B, which as a former C I would think he could pick up relatively quickly. Would give us a LH bat with pop in the OF, 1B, DH, and an emergency C. I think the buy low window, if there even is one, slams shut this season.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Turd Ferguson said:

My pipe dream addition is Schwarber. Maybe teach him some 1B, which as a former C I would think he could pick up relatively quickly. Would give us a LH bat with pop in the OF, 1B, DH, and an emergency C. I think the buy low window, if there even is one, slams shut this season.

I wouldn' mind picking up Mark Zagunis in that deal as well for a backup OF option (I am an admitted Zagunis fan boy). Schwarber would be great if possible. Cubs might like Shoemaker in their rotation for example. Could use Matt as a basis of trade discussions.

 

[VariousCrap]

The Angels are done making major moves.  From this point on, the most we will see is either signing or trading for Bridwell type of RP/SP arms.  Guys teams have given up on who are young, have options and Eppler sees something in them.  Don't get your hopes up for more than that.

[Angelsfan1984]

13 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

The Angels are done making major moves.  From this point on, the most we will see is either signing or trading for Bridwell type of RP/SP arms.  Guys teams have given up on who are young, have options and Eppler sees something in them.  Don't get your hopes up for more than that.

I see the move being made to fill at least 80% of the available cap space. If that means making a trade and taking on some salary or outright signing a solid starter or reliever I'm not sure but I don't think they sit idly by while Houston creates more of a gap between them.

[zenmaster]

We will sign someone from the scraps after the dust clears of the major free agent signings. 

[VariousCrap]

9 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I see the move being made to fill at least 80% of the available cap space. If that means making a trade and taking on some salary or outright signing a solid starter or reliever I'm not sure but I don't think they sit idly by while Houston creates more of a gap between them.

 

Jeff Fletcher has said it numerous times now.  The big moves are pretty much done.

The only way it changes is if some sort of unbelievable deal just falls into their lap that they can't say no to.  Otherwise, it is all small moves from this point on.

[CanadianHalo]

9 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

Jeff Fletcher has said it numerous times now.  The big moves are pretty much done.

The only way it changes is if some sort of unbelievable deal just falls into their lap that they can't say no to.  Otherwise, it is all small moves from this point on.

 

I think Billy is pretty hush hush when it comes to making big moves. Even people as close to the organzation like Fletcher can’t get a proper read. No one saw the Upton thing coming and even Fletch said he didn’t expect any big move.

I’m not saying I expect anything to happen but I’m not going to rule it out either. We’ve had a good offseason so far and we still have obvious holes, why stop now?

[CanadianHalo]

I’d sell the farm for Yelich... 

Just sayin

[VariousCrap]

7 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

I think Billy is pretty hush hush when it comes to making big moves. Even people as close to the organzation like Fletcher can’t get a proper read. No one saw the Upton thing coming and even Fletch said he didn’t expect any big move.

I’m not saying I expect anything to happen but I’m not going to rule it out either. We’ve had a good offseason so far and we still have obvious holes, why stop now?

 

All good points.  I'd argue that there are no major spots to fill now.  All that is needed now is a few small pieces to finish this team.  

[Angelsfan1984]

2 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

 

All good points.  I'd argue that there are no major spots to fill now.  All that is needed now is a few small pieces to finish this team.  

while I agree, I'd still say if you can make a move like we did with Simmons, you have to take it. I'd be more inclined to see a trade go down that to see someone like Hosmer get signed. Of course everything has a price and any improvement in any one of our remaining holes is a welcomed addition.