Brandon Marsh Prospect Article

[Angelsjunky]

Don't forget that Herm now has Liriano to compete with, who might be more ready for the majors. Either way, I think one or both will get time. Maybe they trade Cron and get Calhoun into the 1B mix.

[Angelsjunky]

Until proven otherwise, the full-time starting RF gig is Kole's. I see him as a 3 WAR player, which makes him above average. He might have a good year at 4 WAR and a down year at 2 WAR, but his median is around 3 WAR - which makes him an above average player but not a star. There's very little chance that Hermosillo will steal the job from him this year, unless Kole really struggles for months on end and Hermo kills it in Salt Lake.

But the key is to maximize value. Kole will make $8.5M in 2018, $10.5M in 2019, and $14M in 2020. For 3 WAR that's good value, but if the choice is between starting a talented rookie like Jahmai Jones for $500K or Kole for $14M, then you go with Jones and trade Kole. If Hermosillo looks like he can produce league average (2 WAR) results in the majors, maybe you trade Kole a year from now and save $10M (or $23M over two years) or use that elsewhere to make up the ~1 WAR difference.

Unless Kole has an unexpected mid-career performance spike, he won't be an Angel after 2020, probably not after 2019, and maybe even not after 2018. I love the guy and he's a useful player, but he's expendable. 

[vladdy#27]

53 minutes ago, totdprods said:

March, April, May, and June combined, 76 games or so, Kole's OPS was like .545.

Where are you getting those numbers from? There were no games in March (Aside from Spring Training obviously)

April and May he did struggle. OPS .605 but also had a .247 BABIP (Career .303)

June (.893 OPS) through the rest of the season he had a .791 OPS and his BABIP was right in line with his career norms .305

[totdprods]

42 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

Where are you getting those numbers from? There were no games in March (Aside from Spring Training obviously)

April and May he did struggle. OPS .605 but also had a .247 BABIP (Career .303)

June (.893 OPS) through the rest of the season he had a .791 OPS and his BABIP was right in line with his career norms .305

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=calhoko01&year=2017&t=b

April/March (26 games): .676 OPS
May (27 games): .533 OPS
July (21 games): .568 OPS 

74 games, .592 OPS. I was off a bit, but still. Sub .600 OPS for ~ half a season.

His 2015 season wasn't much better. May, June, September, October (87 games) and a .648 OPS during those months. He's getting streakier as he ages, which isn't the biggest deal, but I'm not overly optimistic about him rebounding significantly. Still a useful piece, but at his age and new salary, it's something to keep an eye on. Another season of a sub 100 OPS+ and it'll be time to talk a replacement and he may not be worth much in trade at that point.

[GrittyVeterans]

On 1/7/2018 at 2:38 PM, Scotty@AW said:

I definitely wouldn't mind a Calhoun trade. When we first hand him, he was very underrated, a solid regular with gold glove defense. Now that he's been in the league a while, I think Angel fans are overrating him. He still struggles against lefties big time, the BA/OBP never developed beyond when he first broke into the league and that left handed power stroke isn't a consistent entity for run production.

He is a regular, but I think his value could be replicated by Hermosillo, who would give us more OBP, less power, more speed and similar defense for a fraction of the cost.

Plus, Germ's strength hasn't matched his HR totals yet, and that's something that usually evens out around 24.  Hermosillo could very well end up hitting for as much power as Calhoun. So he might end up being even better than Kole.

And in the mean time if we traded him, we could get back value where we need it. 

You don't trade Calhoun until Hermosillio proves he can hit MLB pitching...That's way too risky for a team trying to make the playoffs this year

[Second Base]

21 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

You don't trade Calhoun until Hermosillio proves he can hit MLB pitching...That's way too risky for a team trying to make the playoffs this year

The Calhoun trade that I see would come after the 2018 season....maybe 2019.

[GrittyVeterans]

13 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

The Calhoun trade that I see would come after the 2018 season....maybe 2019.

Oh, my bad then. I thought you were talking now. That I could definitely see happening

[Docwaukee]

On 1/7/2018 at 4:34 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Until proven otherwise, the full-time starting RF gig is Kole's. I see him as a 3 WAR player, which makes him above average. He might have a good year at 4 WAR and a down year at 2 WAR, but his median is around 3 WAR - which makes him an above average player but not a star. There's very little chance that Hermosillo will steal the job from him this year, unless Kole really struggles for months on end and Hermo kills it in Salt Lake.

But the key is to maximize value. Kole will make $8.5M in 2018, $10.5M in 2019, and $14M in 2020. For 3 WAR that's good value, but if the choice is between starting a talented rookie like Jahmai Jones for $500K or Kole for $14M, then you go with Jones and trade Kole. If Hermosillo looks like he can produce league average (2 WAR) results in the majors, maybe you trade Kole a year from now and save $10M (or $23M over two years) or use that elsewhere to make up the ~1 WAR difference.

Unless Kole has an unexpected mid-career performance spike, he won't be an Angel after 2020, probably not after 2019, and maybe even not after 2018. I love the guy and he's a useful player, but he's expendable. 

Not yet he's not.  It's tough to assume 2 WAR or better for a rookie OFer.  You trade Kole and you could end up with a black hole in RF if Hermosillo doesn't pan out.  

[IheartLA]

23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Not yet he's not.  It's tough to assume 2 WAR or better for a rookie OFer.  You trade Kole and you could end up with a black hole in RF if Hermosillo doesn't pan out.  

yep, remember letting Howie leave after a 5 WAR season and we were like one of Giavotella, Rutledge, Green, Featherston, Yarbrough will win the job and we'll save money. Look at how that turned out, ST meant nothing and we were stuck with a merry go round for 2B for 3+ years with Petit, Ryan, Jackson, Espinosa. We literally had something like 0 or <1 WAR TOTAL from 2015-17 at 2B.

Same thing with LF, we had Joyce, Navarro, Robertson, Nava, Gentry..so much replacement level production. Calhoun has been a top 10 RF before last year, he was top 10 in '14/'15 and #5 in '16. Our OF prospects are still in A ball, their development actually lines up well with Kole's contract. Let's wait till we have too many players like the Dodgers, Astros, Indians before we start thinking of shipping out our good players. Even then, all the top teams have stacked benches that can step right in for the starters, why can't we? Why do we need to contemplate using replacement level players for our bench when the Doyers have basically two full starting outfields, three starting level catchers, 7-8 starters w/ top prospects like Beuhler, Urias, Stewart, etc.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Not yet he's not.  It's tough to assume 2 WAR or better for a rookie OFer.  You trade Kole and you could end up with a black hole in RF if Hermosillo doesn't pan out.  

Absolutely, I agree - at least right now. I think you re-assess after 2018, when the salary difference between the two will be $10M for 2019, and then again after 2019, when the salary difference will be $13-14M. 

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Absolutely, I agree - at least right now. I think you re-assess after 2018, when the salary difference between the two will be $10M for 2019, and then again after 2019, when the salary difference will be $13-14M. 

True.  I think one of Marsh, Adell, Hermosillo, or Jones are going to explode this year.  I think it's gonna be Jones personally.  He'll make it interesting for next year.  

[Lou]

On January 6, 2018 at 12:39 AM, Dochalo said:

Just start giving Jam Jones some time at 2b.  

I'm shocked @Angel Oracle hasn't brought up the University of Texas trio known as " The Ham, Lam and Jam Show" 

Johnny "Ham" Jones and Johnny "Lam" Jones, both running backs,  were given their nicknames because they were from Lampasas, Texas and Hamlin, Texas, respectively, so the coaches could tell them apart. 

A.J. "Jam" Jones was from Youngstown, Ohio.  The nickname just fit. 

[Second Base]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

True.  I think one of Marsh, Adell, Hermosillo, or Jones are going to explode this year.  I think it's gonna be Jones personally.  He'll make it interesting for next year.  

I could see that. Jones and Herm are really only beginning to tap into their power potential. Because of their strength and athleticism, 20+ HR's could be in the realm or possibility.

[Angel Oracle]

9 hours ago, Lou said:

I'm shocked @Angel Oracle hasn't brought up the University of Texas trio known as " The Ham, Lam and Jam Show" 

Johnny "Ham" Jones and Johnny "Lam" Jones, both running backs,  were given their nicknames because they were from Lampasas, Texas and Hamlin, Texas, respectively, so the coaches could tell them apart. 

A.J. "Jam" Jones was from Youngstown, Ohio.  The nickname just fit. 

I actually did refer to that in another thread back earlier in Jam's minor league career.    Ham, Lam, and Jam....say that ten times fast.

[Second Base]

Generally speaking, there are typically two power surges in a player's career. The first typically accord between 23-25, the second typically happens 28-30. 

For sone reason, the best athletes tend to hit theirs quicker. Trout's first came at age 20. The second just began at 26.

Hermosillo's first already happened at 21, which carried him up to 10-15 HR type of power. I think around 27 in for years he'll hit another that carries him up to 20 HR a year.

Marsh is already so strong and he'll be 20 this next year. As I said, exceptional athletes hit it early. I think he'll break out in 2019 likely. 

Jahmai's come in 2018 or 19. It should carry him up to the 20 HR plateau.