Brandon Marsh Prospect Article

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Not gonna happen dude.

Torii Hunter, 9 time Gold Glove winner in CF left the position in his 11th year for Peter Bourjos, who he knew was going to be a better defensive option for the team.  That was at age 34.

You're telling me that Trout, who himself is good defensive CF would not move to a corner OF spot 12 years into his career?  I guess we'll find out, but I think he would if it was best for the team.  He's only 26 right now.  Just now reaching his prime.  But six years from now, he'll be exiting his prime...which is funny because if his age 2--25 seasons tell us anything, Mike Trout not in his prime is still by far the best player in the league.  

There's a chance that Mike Trout will still be the best player in baseball after the age of 35.  That hasn't happened since the steroid era, and that hasn't organically happened since.....well I'm not sure when but I bet it's a really long time. 

[GrittyVeterans]

The reality is he wants to be a center fielder as long as possible most likely, and at 31-32 he's still going to be at least close to his prime (although likely coming out of it). 

 

I don't see Trout moving to a corner spot until he's 35

[totdprods]

Out of that whole post, y'all zero in on whether or not Trout will move to a corner at age 32?

Not the fact that one or two of those guys likely won't pan out, or one will be traded, but instead focus on an all-around team player refusing to move over in 5 years, when the argument could simply be debunked by saying "ok, Trout stays in CF another year or two and the prospect takes the corner?"

This offseason is slow. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Great read! Thank you for posting this ScottyA!~

[Angelsjunky]

Nice one @Scotty@AW. I probably agree with about 80% of it. My main points of divergence are:

*I think Hermosillo works his way in as the 4th outfielder as early as late 2018, probably 2019

*You're too conservative on Marsh/Adell. If they progress one level per year it likely means they aren't as good as we hope.

*I do agree that Trout will move over to LF eventually, but don't think your timeline of him moving to DH at age 32 is accurate. It will be another 3-5 years before that happens, maybe longer.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

*You're too conservative on Marsh/Adell. If they progress one level per year it likely means they aren't as good as we hope.

I think Eppler's front office will push guys as they see them capable of doing -- it wouldn't surprise me to see them go slow with Adell and maybe push a little harder with Marsh given he's been in pro ball for a bit longer, even if he hasn't been on the field.  I think a big part of the equation is adjusting to the everyday life of minor league ball.  We haven't really seen any set patterns yet in how they will advance guys ... well, other than in that first season when it was pretty clear he was trying to get a gauge on the system's talent or lack thereof as it may have been and he went slow.   One thing I have noticed... and it may just be that the lack of FA activity has limited the number of guys being released or made available on waivers but, he's been a lot less active in the 6 year minor league FA market and waiver wire..    So, maybe that's an indication he is more confident in the farm system's ability to generate players who could help than he was in the recent past.

[tdawg87]

I think Herm and Barria were advanced particularly aggressively. 

Adell at Burlington for all of 2018 makes sense, unless he just kills it. 

Jones should be at AA. No reason to start him at IE, IMO.

I'd like to see Marsh at IE to start the year, but I don't see that happening. But if he's hitting well at Burlington I think he should be promoted to Inland Empire as early as possible. 

Start Baldoquin at Mobile for the lulz.

[JarsOfClay]

11 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

You're telling me that Trout, who himself is good defensive CF would not move to a corner OF spot 12 years into his career?  

He was actually one of the worst defensive CF's in the game last year.  And other than 2014 which was astronomically bad defensively, he's been mostly about average.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, JarsOfClay said:

He was actually one of the worst defensive CF's in the game last year.  And other than 2014 which was astronomically bad defensively, he's been mostly about average.

That's what metrics say. That's not what the eyes say though. His first step is extremely fast, his routes are precise, he goes back on the ball better than any CF in baseball, but is also below average coming in. His arm is average.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I think Herm and Barria were advanced particularly aggressively. 

Adell at Burlington for all of 2018 makes sense, unless he just kills it. 

Jones should be at AA. No reason to start him at IE, IMO.

I'd like to see Marsh at IE to start the year, but I don't see that happening. But if he's hitting well at Burlington I think he should be promoted to Inland Empire as early as possible. 

Start Baldoquin at Mobile for the lulz.

I've actually heard good things about Roberto this offseason. He'll be 24 in Advanced A Ball, so not a lot of room for error there.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I've actually heard good things about Roberto this offseason. He'll be 24 in Advanced A Ball, so not a lot of room for error there.

Wouldn't it be something if everything clicked for him all of the sudden like Cowart? That'd be the funniest shit. Dipoto would lose his mind.

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Nice one @Scotty@AW. I probably agree with about 80% of it. My main points of divergence are:

*I think Hermosillo works his way in as the 4th outfielder as early as late 2018, probably 2019

*You're too conservative on Marsh/Adell. If they progress one level per year it likely means they aren't as good as we hope.

*I do agree that Trout will move over to LF eventually, but don't think your timeline of him moving to DH at age 32 is accurate. It will be another 3-5 years before that happens, maybe longer.

Marsh and Adell are extremely athletic. Their upside is as high as anyone in the minors, particularly Adell's. But they are also prep bats. The general timeline you're looking at with these guys varies.

Collegiate Pitchers: 2.5 years. Ready around age 24.

Collegiate Hitters: 3.5 years. Ready around age 25.

Prep Pitchers: 5 years. Ready around age 23.

Prep Hitters: 6 years. Ready around age 24.

My expectation is that Adell will be ready at age 22 and Marsh 23. Sometimes guys are major league ready before the major league teams are ready for them.

[Docwaukee]

16 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Torii Hunter, 9 time Gold Glove winner in CF left the position in his 11th year for Peter Bourjos, who he knew was going to be a better defensive option for the team.  That was at age 34.

You're telling me that Trout, who himself is good defensive CF would not move to a corner OF spot 12 years into his career?  I guess we'll find out, but I think he would if it was best for the team.  He's only 26 right now.  Just now reaching his prime.  But six years from now, he'll be exiting his prime...which is funny because if his age 2--25 seasons tell us anything, Mike Trout not in his prime is still by far the best player in the league.  

There's a chance that Mike Trout will still be the best player in baseball after the age of 35.  That hasn't happened since the steroid era, and that hasn't organically happened since.....well I'm not sure when but I bet it's a really long time. 

you wrote that he'd be a DH and part time OFer by the age of 31.  That's not happening.  

He'll move to LF in probably 7 or 8 years is my guess.  

[Angelsjunky]

My guess is that Trout gracefully agrees to move to LF after a year or two of watching Jones and/or Adell doing highlight reels to either side of him (or Marsh, but of the three he seems most likely to end up at 1B). Assuming Jones is an everyday player by 2020-21 and Adell by 2021-22, that could be 2023 or 2024 - so Trout's age 31 or 32 season.

At that point Trout will be the everyday LFer until he starts getting truly old and fat, maybe age 37-38ish. Then he'll spend his last two or three years as the DH, eating Cheeto's with manager Jered Weaver.

While I'm sure Trout loves and prefers to play CF, he isn't a huge ego player like Pujols and if he sees the writing on the wall - that Adell/Jones are better defenders - he'll bow to what helps the team win.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

Wouldn't it be something if everything clicked for him all of the sudden like Cowart? That'd be the funniest shit. Dipoto would lose his mind.

Then Epp could trade Baldoquin for Segura.

[Angel Oracle]

Imagine if MLB fielded flag football teams 5 years from now.

WRs Torii Jr., Adell, and Marsh would destroy other MLB teams.

[Angelsjunky]

Regarding whether or not Jones should start in AA, I would say no, for a couple reasons:

1) He's 20 years old and the Angels have Kole locked up for three more years, so there's no rush.

2) The jump from A+ to AA is one of the biggest in the minors, with many AA players being close to major league ready (some top prospects go directly from AA to the majors). While he played very well in A+ in 2017, it was only 41 games and he didn't totally dominate. I'd rather see him get really comfortable and dominate, then promote him.

So I see his timeline:

2018 (age 20): A+/AA

2019 (age 21): AA/AAA

2020 (age 22): AAA, majors

2021 (age 23): majors

That fits perfectly with Kole's contract. If Jones speeds up and is ready by late 2019, the Angels can either ship Calhoun in the offseason, or convert him to 1B if Thaiss isn't ready or sucks.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

you wrote that he'd be a DH and part time OFer by the age of 31.  That's not happening.  

He'll move to LF in probably 7 or 8 years is my guess.  

Ok, you're right about that Doc. It'd be 31/32 by the time he starts playing OF/DH.

But that really wasn't the point of that post. I was just trying to illuminate that there is time for Trout, Upton, Calhoun, Hermosillo, Jones, Adell and Marsh to all be significant contributors at the major league level for us.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Regarding whether or not Jones should start in AA, I would say no, for a couple reasons:

1) He's 20 years old and the Angels have Kole locked up for three more years, so there's no rush.

2) The jump from A+ to AA is one of the biggest in the minors, with many AA players being close to major league ready (some top prospects go directly from AA to the majors). While he played very well in A+ in 2017, it was only 41 games and he didn't totally dominate. I'd rather see him get really comfortable and dominate, then promote him.

So I see his timeline:

2018 (age 20): A+/AA

2019 (age 21): AA/AAA

2020 (age 22): AAA, majors

2021 (age 23): majors

That fits perfectly with Kole's contract. If Jones speeds up and is ready by late 2019, the Angels can either ship Calhoun in the offseason, or convert him to 1B if Thaiss isn't ready or sucks.

He hasn't shown he's ready for AA... IMO anyway...  He hit well, made hard contact but his K/W rates in high A were not where they need to be before he moves up.  Soon as the K rate stabilizes and walk rate bumps up I'd move him to AA...  but you don't want him in AA finally seeing advanced pitching and turning into a hack.

[Angelsjunky]

The Angels have ridiculous organizational outfield depth. I think we've gone over this again and again, but consider...

*They've got a strong starting three--Trout, Upton, Calhoun--locked up for the next 3+ years.

*They've got solid 4th outfield options right now in Young, Hermosillo, Liriano.

*They've got a bunch of young prospects with star potential in Jones, Adell, Marsh, and Deveaux.

*They've got a bunch of prospects with decent/platoon/4th OF potential in Liriano, Hermosillo, Lund, Hunter, Sandoval, Todd, Knowles, etc, one or two of whom could be above average regulars. 

I think what we'll see Eppler do is see how things develop over the next year or two, who emerges as the true jewels, then trade away excess as needs arise. As much as I love Jones/Adell/Marsh, we might see one of them traded - but not this year, not until they make names for themselves.

It also seems likely that we'll see Calhoun traded, possibly in the 2019 offseason.

 

 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

The Angels have ridiculous organizational outfield depth. I think we've gone over this again and again, but consider...

*They've got a strong starting three--Trout, Upton, Calhoun--locked up for the next 3+ years.

*They've got solid 4th outfield options right now in Young, Hermosillo, Liriano.

*They've got a bunch of young prospects with star potential in Jones, Adell, Marsh, and Deveaux.

*They've got a bunch of prospects with decent/platoon/4th OF potential in Liriano, Hermosillo, Lund, Hunter, Sandoval, Todd, Knowles, etc, one or two of whom could be above average regulars. 

I think what we'll see Eppler do is see how things develop over the next year or two, who emerges as the true jewels, then trade away excess as needs arise. As much as I love Jones/Adell/Marsh, we might see one of them traded - but not this year, not until they make names for themselves.

It also seems likely that we'll see Calhoun traded, possibly in the 2019 offseason.

 

 

I definitely wouldn't mind a Calhoun trade. When we first hand him, he was very underrated, a solid regular with gold glove defense. Now that he's been in the league a while, I think Angel fans are overrating him. He still struggles against lefties big time, the BA/OBP never developed beyond when he first broke into the league and that left handed power stroke isn't a consistent entity for run production.

He is a regular, but I think his value could be replicated by Hermosillo, who would give us more OBP, less power, more speed and similar defense for a fraction of the cost.

Plus, Germ's strength hasn't matched his HR totals yet, and that's something that usually evens out around 24.  Hermosillo could very well end up hitting for as much power as Calhoun. So he might end up being even better than Kole.

And in the mean time if we traded him, we could get back value where we need it. 

[Angelsjunky]

Yes, I agree, but don’t think it will happen this year as he’s a fan favorite and considering the fact the Angels now have legit shot at contending, starting Hermosillo would seem to be too much a rebuilding move - unless, of course, Calhoun is traded for someone who could help this year.

 

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, I agree, but don’t think it will happen this year as he’s a fan favorite and considering the fact the Angels now have legit shot at contending, starting Hermosillo would seem to be too much a rebuilding move - unless, of course, Calhoun is traded for someone who could help this year.

 

I don't think Herm will need a full year in AAA. I think after the all star break, Herm will be splitting time with Calhoun in RF.

[Second Base]

25 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I have a hard time believing this...

not because I don’t think Herm is a solid player, but I just don’t envision it happening unless Calhoun plays extremely poorly.

Kole played extremely poorly for the first couple months last year didn't he? You can never really predict injury either.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Kole played extremely poorly for the first couple months last year didn't he? You can never really predict injury either.

March, April, May, and June combined, 76 games or so, Kole's OPS was like .545.