Messy situation at 1B

[Lou]

20 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

One huge reason for me to believe this is there is no evidence an extra day of rest helps the arm.  There is either enough rest or not.  Five man rotations give them enough rest.  

How do you know this? 

"There is either enough rest or not."

So if the answer is that there is not, wouldn't an extra day of rest be helpful? 

[Lou]

19 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Did it ever occur to anyone that starters are not going to be happy with pitching every sixth game reducing their value in terms of wins and losses over the course of a season? 

Wins and Losses? 

Gentlemen, have at it . . . 

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, arch stanton said:

Remember that even 5 man rotations weren’t originally 5 equally shared rotation spots. It was just to ensure that your top 4 all got 4 days rest. The 5th guy was a spot starter. Now we’re taking that to another level and hopefully also pulling starters a batter early instead of a batter late. It sucks seeing a game slip away because the starter can’t handle the third trip through the lineup 

I think it's just the evolution of the game and more and more information on injuries and how to prevent them.   Teams often go with tandem starters in the minors as a means to keep guys healthier and also to weed out the guys who are better suited for the pen.  I think it's only a matter of time before some team tries the tandem starter at the MLB level..   Given all the info they have on effectiveness and a pitcher's times through the lineup teams may end up doing it for performance reasons rather than as a means to keep guys healthy.  MLB seems to be more willing to experiment than in the past.

[Lou]

7 hours ago, arch stanton said:

. It sucks seeing a game slip away because the starter can’t handle the third trip through the lineup 

I'd rather see Richards, Heany, Bridwell, etc.  than a guy like Brooks Pounders pitch to one batter. 

[Hubs]

8 hours ago, arch stanton said:

Remember that even 5 man rotations weren’t originally 5 equally shared rotation spots. It was just to ensure that your top 4 all got 4 days rest. The 5th guy was a spot starter. Now we’re taking that to another level and hopefully also pulling starters a batter early instead of a batter late. It sucks seeing a game slip away because the starter can’t handle the third trip through the lineup 

This is, how I think the Angels deploy their rotation next season, only adding a 6th spot starter and a day's rest (5 days).

The thing is, the days off conflict sometimes with more than one guy. So do you just skip whomever comes up, or do you move everyone back a day and then skip your 6th guy?

In Japan, they have every Monday off, whereas the Angels have 11 Mondays off and 9 Thursdays off, along with one Tuesday and Two Wednesdays for some reason.

[arch stanton]

57 minutes ago, Lou said:

I'd rather see Richards, Heany, Bridwell, etc.  than a guy like Brooks Pounders pitch to one batter. 

That’s because Pounders has no business in the Majors. But as Doc has detailed here more than once an average ML reliever has better numbers than most starters when they’re seeing a lineup for the third time

[arch stanton]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

This is, how I think the Angels deploy their rotation next season, only adding a 6th spot starter and a day's rest (5 days).

The thing is, the days off conflict sometimes with more than one guy. So do you just skip whomever comes up, or do you move everyone back a day and then skip your 6th guy?

In Japan, they have every Monday off, whereas the Angels have 11 Mondays off and 9 Thursdays off, along with one Tuesday and Two Wednesdays for some reason.

You skip the sixth guy. That’s the definition of a spot starter

[Hubs]

Getting back to the OP, The rotation directly affects the situation at 1st because if Ohtani is hitting like we all hope, he's an elite bat. Which means you want to get him PA as much as possible. Which means three days a week of DH. Which Means Pujols has to play first at least two of those days, and sit the other one.

Except if it's a left handed starter on the opposing mound on a day when Ohtani is say pitching, then Pujols should be the first baseman, and then who is the DH?

[Hubs]

Just now, arch stanton said:

You skip the sixth guy. That’s the definition of a spot starter

So some guys then will be on five days rest and the rest 6. I actually tried to figure it out, but it doesn't line up very nicely. Which is why I think they go to 4 full-time starters and use 2 guys in that swing-man type role, out of the pen and as an occasional spot starter.

[Dtwncbad]

3 hours ago, Lou said:

How do you know this? 

"There is either enough rest or not."

So if the answer is that there is not, wouldn't an extra day of rest be helpful? 

Yes.  If the rest in a five man rotation is determined medically to be the cause of injury, then the change happens.  If that was a known thing, then you would have 30 teams using 6 man rotations, right?

Then would even one more day of rest be better?  Then one more?

Just saying at some point the amount of rest is enough to make your next start and based on the decisions currently by teams it appears they believe a five man is enough rest.

I'm not a doctor and even if I found a couple of articles saying 6 man is "better" I am not personally buying into as actually happening until I actually see it.

If there were 150 articles on the internet about batting with your hands crossed, that would be fun to talk about but I wouldn't believe it until I saw it actually happening.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

15 minutes ago, Hubs said:

So some guys then will be on five days rest and the rest 6. I actually tried to figure it out, but it doesn't line up very nicely. Which is why I think they go to 4 full-time starters and use 2 guys in that swing-man type role, out of the pen and as an occasional spot starter.

Also pitchers with options will be rotated to AAA and back, 10 day DL, etc.

[Dtwncbad]

17 minutes ago, Hubs said:

So some guys then will be on five days rest and the rest 6. I actually tried to figure it out, but it doesn't line up very nicely. Which is why I think they go to 4 full-time starters and use 2 guys in that swing-man type role, out of the pen and as an occasional spot starter.

But different rest happens all the time with off days.  7 straight games then a travel day means 2 starters pitch on 4 days rest and then the next 3 starters would be getting 5 days rest.

So?  Normally pitcher go with either 4 or 5 days rest just depending on when the off day hits their spot in the rotation.

You dont have to overmanage to make sure every starter has the same exact rest.

 

[Erstad Grit]

11 hours ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

I agree with Jeff. I think we'll mostly have a 5 man rotation, with a 6th spot occasionally. I think we'll see a lot of shuffling between AAA and MLB this year.

 

Here's my guess at the depth chart, with remaining options in parenthesis.

 

C

Maldonado (0)

Perez (0)

Graterol (2)

 

1B

Valbuena (0)

Pujols (0)

Cron (0)

 

2B

Kinsler (0)

Cozart (0)

Cowart (1)

 

3B

Cozart (0)

Valbuena (0)

Cowart (1)

 

SS

Simmons (0)

Cozart (0)

 

LF

Upton (0)

4th OF

 

CF

Trout (2)

4th OF

 

RF

Calhoun (1)

4th OF

 

DH

Pujols (0)

Ohtani (3)

 

SP

Richards (0)

Ohtani (3)

Heaney (1)

Shoemaker (2)

Skaggs (1)

Bridwell (1)

Tropeano (2)

JC (0)

Scribner (3)

 

RP

Parker (0)

Bedrosian (0)

Alvarez (0)

Johnson (0)

Middleton (2)

Wood (0)

Paredes (2)

Noe (0)

Bard (0)

 

To start the year, I think we'll see the following:

MLB position player starters:

C - Maldonado

1B - Valbuena

2B - Kinsler

3B - Cozart

SS - Simmons

LF - Upton

CF - Trout

RF - Calhoun

DH - Pujols

That's 9. Now, MLB starting pitchers:

Richards

Ohtani

Heaney

Shoemaker

Bridwell

That's 14. Now, MLB relief pitchers:

Parker

Bedrosian

Alvarez

Middleton

Wood

Johnson

Bard

JC (long relief)

That's 22. Now, MLB bench:

C - Perez

1B/DH - Cron

OF - ??

That's 25. That leaves the following players in AAA:

Graterol

Cowart

Skaggs

Tropeano

Scribner

Paredes

 

All of our staters have options remaining except JC and Richards. JC is well suited in long relief, but I could see him making spot starts. Tropeano is still working his way back from surgery, so no real rush with him. Skaggs and Scribner can make spot starts or relieve as needed.

 

As far as future moves.. We still need a 4th OF. I'd like another bullpen piece. I could also see Cron flipped for a pitcher with options, with Cowart then used as a utility infielder.

 

My target for 4th OF would be someone like Jarrod Dyson. Might be tough to convince him to take a bench role though. Perhaps a Peter Bourjos reunion instead.

Welcome to AW, and great post.

I think Dyson gets a starting gig somewhere. I'd like Raja Davis as the 4th OF who could also PR some. Ben Revere I thought did well too. 

 

[Erstad Grit]

11 hours ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

I agree with Jeff. I think we'll mostly have a 5 man rotation, with a 6th spot occasionally. I think we'll see a lot of shuffling between AAA and MLB this year.

 

Here's my guess at the depth chart, with remaining options in parenthesis.

 

C

Maldonado (0)

Perez (0)

Graterol (2)

 

1B

Valbuena (0)

Pujols (0)

Cron (0)

 

2B

Kinsler (0)

Cozart (0)

Cowart (1)

 

3B

Cozart (0)

Valbuena (0)

Cowart (1)

 

SS

Simmons (0)

Cozart (0)

 

LF

Upton (0)

4th OF

 

CF

Trout (2)

4th OF

 

RF

Calhoun (1)

4th OF

 

DH

Pujols (0)

Ohtani (3)

 

SP

Richards (0)

Ohtani (3)

Heaney (1)

Shoemaker (2)

Skaggs (1)

Bridwell (1)

Tropeano (2)

JC (0)

Scribner (3)

 

RP

Parker (0)

Bedrosian (0)

Alvarez (0)

Johnson (0)

Middleton (2)

Wood (0)

Paredes (2)

Noe (0)

Bard (0)

 

To start the year, I think we'll see the following:

MLB position player starters:

C - Maldonado

1B - Valbuena

2B - Kinsler

3B - Cozart

SS - Simmons

LF - Upton

CF - Trout

RF - Calhoun

DH - Pujols

That's 9. Now, MLB starting pitchers:

Richards

Ohtani

Heaney

Shoemaker

Bridwell

That's 14. Now, MLB relief pitchers:

Parker

Bedrosian

Alvarez

Middleton

Wood

Johnson

Bard

JC (long relief)

That's 22. Now, MLB bench:

C - Perez

1B/DH - Cron

OF - ??

That's 25. That leaves the following players in AAA:

Graterol

Cowart

Skaggs

Tropeano

Scribner

Paredes

 

All of our staters have options remaining except JC and Richards. JC is well suited in long relief, but I could see him making spot starts. Tropeano is still working his way back from surgery, so no real rush with him. Skaggs and Scribner can make spot starts or relieve as needed.

 

As far as future moves.. We still need a 4th OF. I'd like another bullpen piece. I could also see Cron flipped for a pitcher with options, with Cowart then used as a utility infielder.

 

My target for 4th OF would be someone like Jarrod Dyson. Might be tough to convince him to take a bench role though. Perhaps a Peter Bourjos reunion instead.

Welcome to AW, and great post.

I think Dyson gets a starting gig somewhere. I'd like Raja Davis as the 4th OF who could also PR some. Ben Revere I thought did well too. 

 

[Hubs]

9 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

But different rest happens all the time with off days.  7 straight games then a travel day means 2 starters pitch on 4 days rest and then the next 3 starters would be getting 5 days rest.

So?  Normally pitcher go with either 4 or 5 days rest just depending on when the off day hits their spot in the rotation.

You dont have to overmanage to make sure every starter has the same exact rest.

 

Right but pitchers are creatures of habit, and routine, so getting them to be the closest they can to regular routine, is best. And so I figured it out.

There are bound to be injuries, performance questions, and other details, but what I did is slot the rotation into the actual schedule to see how many times they would need a 6th starter, and if that would be consecutive, or varying.

It varies, a lot.

I have a few guys pitching on 4 days rest occasionally, but the vast majority is on five. Ohtani slots best as the 3rd guy, or the 1st guy. The third spot in my rotation schedule actually always has 5 or 6 days rest. So Ohtani as the third guy, with Richards first and Shoemaker 2nd, then Heaney and Skaggs, you do throw the three righties and then the two lefties, but you can also just as easily switch Skaggs or Heaney with Shoemaker.

I know I've left out Bridwell and Ramirez, but honestly Bridwell has options, and Ramirez is good out of the pen.

So without posting the entire excel sheet, the Angels will need a 6th starter 16 times to keep everyone on 5 or 6 days rest. The exception is that Richards goes on 4 days once, Shoemaker on 4 days twice, and Heaney and Skaggs on four days once towards the end of the season.

This gave Richards 30 starts, Shoemaker 30 Starts, Ohtani 29 Starts, Skaggs 28, Heaney 29.

The 16 times they need a 6th starter comes 10 times in the first half and only 6 post All-Star Break.

They have two in April, on the 11th and the 22nd. I'd imagine it's someone from the pen on these two games or they call someone up from SLC. (10 days apart, so it can be same guy).

From May 6th until June 2nd, they need a 6th starter every cycle, then again on June 13th. So they should probably call someone up for the entire month of May. Then send him down in June. The 13th can be the same guy (again, 10 days apart) or a different guy.

July 8th and July 15th, you'll need another spot starter. The 15th is the day before the break, so I was tempted to go with a guy on 4 days rest here but it would have been Ohtani. Also, it depends greatly here on who actually is an All-Star and who pitches in said All-Star game. But assuming no issues, I have Richards coming back on Friday. Ohtani on Sunday. Plenty of rest of Ohtani if he pitches in the All-Star game, and if Richards pitches more than an inning, you can always swap him with Shoemaker and have him pitch Saturday.

The 25th is the first day we need a 6th starter, then again on the 5th and the 15th of August, and the 29th of August. So easily filled from AAA or the pen.

Then after rosters expand, they need one twice on the 12th and 23rd. Also, the last few days of the season could be AAA guys if they are already in the playoffs. Richards and Ohtani would both be available for the Wild Card game or the first game of the ALDS on regular rest respectively.

 

[Hubs]

11 hours ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

I agree with Jeff. I think we'll mostly have a 5 man rotation, with a 6th spot occasionally. I think we'll see a lot of shuffling between AAA and MLB this year.

 

Here's my guess at the depth chart, with remaining options in parenthesis.

 

C

Maldonado (0)

Perez (0)

Graterol (2)

 

1B

Valbuena (0)

Pujols (0)

Cron (0)

 

2B

Kinsler (0)

Cozart (0)

Cowart (1)

 

3B

Cozart (0)

Valbuena (0)

Cowart (1)

 

SS

Simmons (0)

Cozart (0)

 

LF

Upton (0)

4th OF

 

CF

Trout (2)

4th OF

 

RF

Calhoun (1)

4th OF

 

DH

Pujols (0)

Ohtani (3)

 

SP

Richards (0)

Ohtani (3)

Heaney (1)

Shoemaker (2)

Skaggs (1)

Bridwell (1)

Tropeano (2)

JC (0)

Scribner (3)

 

RP

Parker (0)

Bedrosian (0)

Alvarez (0)

Johnson (0)

Middleton (2)

Wood (0)

Paredes (2)

Noe (0)

Bard (0)

 

To start the year, I think we'll see the following:

MLB position player starters:

C - Maldonado

1B - Valbuena

2B - Kinsler

3B - Cozart

SS - Simmons

LF - Upton

CF - Trout

RF - Calhoun

DH - Pujols

That's 9. Now, MLB starting pitchers:

Richards

Ohtani

Heaney

Shoemaker

Bridwell

That's 14. Now, MLB relief pitchers:

Parker

Bedrosian

Alvarez

Middleton

Wood

Johnson

Bard

JC (long relief)

That's 22. Now, MLB bench:

C - Perez

1B/DH - Cron

OF - ??

That's 25. That leaves the following players in AAA:

Graterol

Cowart

Skaggs

Tropeano

Scribner

Paredes

 

All of our staters have options remaining except JC and Richards. JC is well suited in long relief, but I could see him making spot starts. Tropeano is still working his way back from surgery, so no real rush with him. Skaggs and Scribner can make spot starts or relieve as needed.

 

As far as future moves.. We still need a 4th OF. I'd like another bullpen piece. I could also see Cron flipped for a pitcher with options, with Cowart then used as a utility infielder.

 

My target for 4th OF would be someone like Jarrod Dyson. Might be tough to convince him to take a bench role though. Perhaps a Peter Bourjos reunion instead.

I don't think Cowart has options remaining. Maybe I missed it. Also, with the 6th starter basically coming up and down, I'd say that he'll be up most of the time anyway.

I also don't think Shoemaker has 2 options, nor do Heaney or Skaggs. Remember that these last two guys also pitched in other teams organizations, so they could have been added and used an option year in the minors with that club.

Bridwell and Tropeano do. Trout definitely doesn't have options. The Veteran's consent rule applies. Calhoun is also very close to this, but he was added to the major league roster before the 2012 season anyway, so he ran out of options last year. Scribner was up last year, so that counts, and unless he qualifies for a fourth year, I doubt he has more than two left.

"If a player has 5 years of major-league service, he may not be assigned to a minor-league team without his consent. This exclusion applies regardless of whether he has not yet been outrighted once, has remaining options, or has cleared waivers. If the player withholds consent, the team must either release him or keep him on the major league roster. In either case, the player must continue to be paid under the terms of his contract. If he is released and signs with a new team, his previous team must pay the difference in salary between the two contracts if the previous contract called for a greater salary."

The only kind of pen arm I want is a guy with options. Relievers are getting way overpaid in the free agent market, meaning a guy with control is even more valuable via trade.

In short, I'd say Cowart and Skaggs will have to be with the major league club to start the season, whereas, Bridwell does not, so I'd say he starts in AAA and Skaggs is with the major league club.

Also, I doubt they are going with a 13 man staff. 12 man staff is more likely until they need a 6th starter (mid-April), so I could see them sending down a pen arm (Middleton) to grab him or putting a guy on the DL.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Here are all the players on the roster with options:

Graterol (2) C
Cowart (1) IF
Trout (2) CF
Calhoun (1) RF
Ohtani (3) SP/DH
Heaney (1) SP
Shoemaker (2) SP
Skaggs (1) SP
Bridwell (1) SP
Tropeano (2) SP
Scribner (3) RP
Middleton (2) RP
Paredes (2) RP

[Dtwncbad]

Can we acknowledge something else?

2002 had 42 guys go 200+ innings

2007 had 38

2012 had 31

2017 had 15

All with 5 man rotations.  So innings going down is innings per start not longer rest between starts.

Seems kind of obvious mlb teams are probably focused more on pitches thrown per outing and not rest time between starts.

I think even if they allowed an extra roster spot an extra reliever would be a better fit than an extra starter so that you have the bullpen depth daily to pull the starter at his optimal pick count.

[Blarg]

16 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Can we acknowledge something else?

2002 had 42 guys go 200+ innings

2007 had 38

2012 had 31

2017 had 15

All with 5 man rotations.  So innings going down is innings per start not longer rest between starts.

Seems kind of obvious mlb teams are probably focused more on pitches thrown per outing and not rest time between starts.

I think even if they allowed an extra roster spot an extra reliever would be a better fit than an extra starter so that you have the bullpen depth daily to pull the starter at his optimal pick count.

Can we acknowledge the end of the steroid era? Since then the incidence of Tommy John surgery has been on the rise. Pitch counts have been employed for more than a decade so it has nothing to do with how many pitches are thrown as much as the increased velocity and adding in high stress secondary pitches like the slider. 

You have your feet dug in like MLB GMs before moneyball. This is the way we've been doing things and we're not going to change. Then the league sees they are being left behind, still hanging on to outdated concepts like batting average over obp and ops. 

I would rather the Angels be ahead of the learning curve and not playing catch up as other teams see an advantage and exploit it. Eppler so far has exploited the cast off pitching market to good results. He has said he is open to the six man rotation and he is not just talking out of class, there is a lot of metrics at his disposal, not available to us, that is influencing his decision making. His stockpiling of starters seems to point to him preparing for that transition. 

But keep up the good fight.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

Welcome to AW, and great post.

I think Dyson gets a starting gig somewhere. I'd like Raja Davis as the 4th OF who could also PR some. Ben Revere I thought did well too. 

 

Agreed on Dyson. My only problem with Davis is his age. He's 37. I'd prefer a younger option.

[tdawg87]

Blarg take your meds. You're cranky as shit.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

I don't think Cowart has options remaining. Maybe I missed it. Also, with the 6th starter basically coming up and down, I'd say that he'll be up most of the time anyway.

I also don't think Shoemaker has 2 options, nor do Heaney or Skaggs. Remember that these last two guys also pitched in other teams organizations, so they could have been added and used an option year in the minors with that club.

Bridwell and Tropeano do. Trout definitely doesn't have options. The Veteran's consent rule applies. Calhoun is also very close to this, but he was added to the major league roster before the 2012 season anyway, so he ran out of options last year. Scribner was up last year, so that counts, and unless he qualifies for a fourth year, I doubt he has more than two left.

"If a player has 5 years of major-league service, he may not be assigned to a minor-league team without his consent. This exclusion applies regardless of whether he has not yet been outrighted once, has remaining options, or has cleared waivers. If the player withholds consent, the team must either release him or keep him on the major league roster. In either case, the player must continue to be paid under the terms of his contract. If he is released and signs with a new team, his previous team must pay the difference in salary between the two contracts if the previous contract called for a greater salary."

The only kind of pen arm I want is a guy with options. Relievers are getting way overpaid in the free agent market, meaning a guy with control is even more valuable via trade.

In short, I'd say Cowart and Skaggs will have to be with the major league club to start the season, whereas, Bridwell does not, so I'd say he starts in AAA and Skaggs is with the major league club.

Also, I doubt they are going with a 13 man staff. 12 man staff is more likely until they need a 6th starter (mid-April), so I could see them sending down a pen arm (Middleton) to grab him or putting a guy on the DL.

 

I pulled the remaining options from roster resource. Perhaps the info there is a season behind.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

Can we acknowledge something else?

2002 had 42 guys go 200+ innings

2007 had 38

2012 had 31

2017 had 15

All with 5 man rotations.  So innings going down is innings per start not longer rest between starts.

Seems kind of obvious mlb teams are probably focused more on pitches thrown per outing and not rest time between starts.

I think even if they allowed an extra roster spot an extra reliever would be a better fit than an extra starter so that you have the bullpen depth daily to pull the starter at his optimal pick count.

it's not to maintain health.  It's that metrics support not exposing pitchers 3rd and 4th time through the order.  Or just having more specialized relief.  

TJ surg actually peaked from 2012 to 2015.  It seems to be leveling off a bit.  So fewer innings per start don't seem to be correlating to fewer injuries.  

[Dtwncbad]

20 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Can we acknowledge the end of the steroid era? Since then the incidence of Tommy John surgery has been on the rise. Pitch counts have been employed for more than a decade so it has nothing to do with how many pitches are thrown as much as the increased velocity and adding in high stress secondary pitches like the slider. 

You have your feet dug in like MLB GMs before moneyball. This is the way we've been doing things and we're not going to change. Then the league sees they are being left behind, still hanging on to outdated concepts like batting average over obp and ops. 

I would rather the Angels be ahead of the learning curve and not playing catch up as other teams see an advantage and exploit it. Eppler so far has exploited the cast off pitching market to good results. He has said he is open to the six man rotation and he is not just talking out of class, there is a lot of metrics at his disposal, not available to us, that is influencing his decision making. His stockpiling of starters seems to point to him preparing for that transition. 

But keep up the good fight.

So 99% of things actually happening in mlb say the 5 man rotation is comfortable with teams who cate about keeping arms healthy, and I simply cite that and say "I will believe the 6 man when I actually see it" and you have me painted as a dinasaur rejecting the idea.

Dude I am in a better mood today than yesterday but you have issues.  Glad you can have a conversation.

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

it's not to maintain health.  It's that metrics support not exposing pitchers 3rd and 4th time through the order.  Or just having more specialized relief.  

TJ surg actually peaked from 2012 to 2015.  It seems to be leveling off a bit.  So fewer innings per start don't seem to be correlating to fewer injuries.  

It's not one or the other.  It's both.  Pitch counts do dictate pitching changes to protect arms.  Other times pitching changes happen for the same reason you cited even though the pitch count says they have 20 pitches left in the tank.