Starting Pitching / Relief

[Troy]

What kind of $ do the Angels have left to stay under the luxury tax if any after all the recent acquisitions? Would be nice to add a solid RP pitcher or another SP . 

[Angel Oracle]

With Upton's $21.2 million AAV, Cozart's $12.7 AAV, Kinsler's $11 million AAV, and Jim Johnson's $4+ million AAV, that should leave about $21 million after the arb cases are settled? 

[DMVol]

20 million, give or take...may not want to spend it all...may save some for July...

[Troy]

Thanks 

[ettin]

Depending on who you talk too we are anywhere from $24M-$29M under the Luxury Tax threshold. However in actual payroll we are probably at or near our maximum spending limit ($180M-$185M). Now certainly Moreno can expand payroll further if he so desires but @Jeff Fletcher (Happy Birthday again Jeff!) is probably correct that the Angels will stay at or minimally exceed their payroll number of $179M from 2017 in 2018. Barring the use of the extra $50M they received for the sale of BAMTech to Disney (which is probably going towards renovations of the stadium) I seriously doubt the Angels go higher than $190M in actual team payroll.

This really means that any additional transactions will probably need to be relatively payroll neutral.

[Warfarin]

11 minutes ago, ettin said:

Depending on who you talk too we are anywhere from $24M-$29M under the Luxury Tax threshold. However in actual payroll we are probably at or near our maximum spending limit ($180M-$185M). Now certainly Moreno can expand payroll further if he so desires but @Jeff Fletcher (Happy Birthday again Jeff!) is probably correct that the Angels will stay at or minimally exceed their payroll number of $179M from 2017 in 2018. Barring the use of the extra $50M they received for the sale of BAMTech to Disney (which is probably going towards renovations of the stadium) I seriously doubt the Angels go higher than $190M in actual team payroll.

This really means that any additional transactions will probably need to be relatively payroll neutral.

We are currently projected at around 170mil AAV, given or take a little.  I suspect you could see us add about 10-15mil more in AAV, but probably nothing more than that so that we can maintain a payroll cushion to acquire midseason talent as needed.

[ettin]

19 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

We are currently projected at around 170mil AAV, given or take a little.  I suspect you could see us add about 10-15mil more in AAV, but probably nothing more than that so that we can maintain a payroll cushion to acquire midseason talent as needed.

Yes that is why I said $24M-$29M under the Luxury Tax. However actual club payroll is higher (the $180M-$185M number) and our actual payroll in 2017 was $179M and we are unlikely to go too much higher over that barring a Moreno-approved bump in payroll. We probably have no more room if you are maintaining a cushion for a trade deadline move. Everything now relies on Arte to approve it and that seems unlikely which is why any further transactions need to be payroll neutral.

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

Yes that is why I said $24M-$29M under the Luxury Tax. However actual club payroll is higher (the $180M-$185M number) and our actual payroll in 2017 was $179M and we are unlikely to go too much higher over that barring a Moreno-approved bump in payroll. We probably have no more room if you are maintaining a cushion for a trade deadline move. Everything now relies on Arte to approve it and that seems unlikely which is why any further transactions need to be payroll neutral.

I do think Arte will spend a bit more if a good situation presented itself.  I know he has been steadfast about not going over the luxury tax limit, so I would look to that as more of the cut-off point, vs just payroll itself.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

By the way, I asked Andrew Friedman what’s the best current estimate to use for 0-3’s, bonuses and benefits and he said $20M. I had that originally but then was told to change it to 25. Anyway now it’s back. 

However, for this year only I made it 23 because Pujols has a $3M bonus for getting 3,000 hits. He’s about 30 away. 

[Hubs]

39 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

By the way, I asked Andrew Friedman what’s the best current estimate to use for 0-3’s, bonuses and benefits and he said $20M. I had that originally but then was told to change it to 25. Anyway now it’s back. 

However, for this year only I made it 23 because Pujols has a $3M bonus for getting 3,000 hits. He’s about 30 away. 

Don't bonuses like that amortize across the entire remaining contract?

[ettin]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Don't bonuses like that amortize across the entire remaining contract?

He's talking about performance bonuses not signing bonuses. For instance Kole Calhoun will get a performance bonus if he wins a Gold Glove in any particular season.

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, ettin said:

He's talking about performance bonuses not signing bonuses. For instance Kole Calhoun will get a performance bonus if he wins a Gold Glove in any particular season.

I thought they were treated the same. Learn something new every day!

 

[wopphil]

We need another starter. Without a doubt. I'd even be fine moving Calhoun for salary relief  (provided we received a cost controlled outfielder in return) if it would give us the flexibility to bring in a guy like Darvish.

[oater]

I think the Angels should seriously consider extending both Machete and Richards this year.  A Richards extension would obviously carry a significant risk, but if he is healthy and productive in 18, he will be one of the premier FA pitchers next year, so this may be a good time to negotiate a deal that would work for both sides (maybe 4 yrs/ $60 M?).

The extensions would add significantly to the CBT payroll (because of the higher AAV) even if the deals are payroll neutral for 18. 

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, wopphil said:

We need another starter. Without a doubt. I'd even be fine moving Calhoun for salary relief  (provided we received a cost controlled outfielder in return) if it would give us the flexibility to bring in a guy like Darvish.

I don't think they do. They have a lot of quality depth, if not big names.

Ohtani, Richards, Heaney, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Bridwell, Tropeano, Ramirez, Barria, Meyer*, Scribner, Smith* and Jewell. All are on the 40-man. Also have a few who aren't on the 40-man, who could be called on.

*Meyer and Smith are injured and may not play in 2018.

 

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I don't think they do. They have a lot of quality depth, if not big names.

Ohtani, Richards, Heaney, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Bridwell, Tropeano, Ramirez, Barria, Meyer*, Scribner, Smith* and Jewell. All are on the 40-man. Also have a few who aren't on the 40-man, who could be called on.

*Meyer and Smith are injured and may not play in 2018.

Castillo's on the 40 man too. Osmer Morales almost was, he isn't far from being an option and Joe Gatto and Griffin Canning maybe a year away from at least being on the depth chart.

[Docwaukee]

I think Eppler is gong to wait until the dust settles from the current FA crop of pitchers.  I'm sure he's keeping a close eye on some specific guys.  Still think Cahill could be an option to function like Petit.  Although he got hammered in KC at the end of the year.  Jaime Garcia is another guy I'd kick tires on.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

22 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

However, for this year only I made it 23 because Pujols has a $3M bonus for getting 3,000 hits. He’s about 30 away. 

He is 82 RBIs away from 2000, I suppose he gets another bonus for reaching that milestone as well.

[nando714]

22 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

However, for this year only I made it 23 because Pujols has a $3M bonus for getting 3,000 hits. He’s about 30 away. 

 

9 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

He is 82 RBIs away from 2000, I suppose he gets another bonus for reaching that milestone as well.

More bobblehead nights !!! 

[floplag]

i still say the focus should be on a lockdown pen in regards to arms, but there are a couple of intriguing SP options if the price is right.  

[HaloNArizona]

13 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

He is 82 RBIs away from 2000, I suppose he gets another bonus for reaching that milestone as well.

• milestone bonuses: $3M for 3,000 hits, $7M for 763 HRs
• up to $0.875M annually in award bonuses. $0.5M for MVP ($75,000 each for 2nd or 3rd in vote). $0.1M for WS MVP. $75,000 each for Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, LCS MVP. $50,000 for All-Star
• perks: hotel suite on road, luxury suite for Pujols charity for 10 home games each season, right to buy luxury suite between first and third base for all home games

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/los-angeles-angels-of-anaheim/

[Stradling]

11 minutes ago, floplag said:

i still say the focus should be on a lockdown pen in regards to arms, but there are a couple of intriguing SP options if the price is right.  

I keep thinking this, but I also see the starters that aren’t starting (maybe Shoe and JC) as being late inning guys for us.  One of them will probably be stretched out.  

[greginpsca]

22 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

By the way, I asked Andrew Friedman what’s the best current estimate to use for 0-3’s, bonuses and benefits and he said $20M. I had that originally but then was told to change it to 25. Anyway now it’s back. 

However, for this year only I made it 23 because Pujols has a $3M bonus for getting 3,000 hits. He’s about 30 away. 

Guess that means he will reach 3,000 in June.

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I keep thinking this, but I also see the starters that aren’t starting (maybe Shoe and JC) as being late inning guys for us.  One of them will probably be stretched out.  

I think we'll see a 6-man rotation, with Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Ohtani, and Shoemaker (in some order) all firmly in place, unless someone is struggling of course.

J.C. Ramirez will be the long-man in pen, and on occasion, perhaps a second long reliever. That spot, along with the 6th spot, will be a rotating cast of Bridwell, Tropeano, Barria, Scribner, and maybe even Castillo and Jewell if they begin transitioning more into a long-relief role. With all of those players healthy and with options, it will give the Angels the flexibility to send a 6th starter down for 10 days, bring another arm up in that time for a start or two, and then flip the two again once the required timeframe is up, or if they want to avoid sending them back to SLC, they can stash them in the pen with Ramirez and piggy-back the two together on a start if they're unable to go a full 80-100 pitches. 

This also gives them the flexibility to continuously tool with a 3-man bench or a 4-man bench, or as 12 or 13 man staff, based on needs.

[Second Base]

From a financial standpoint, the Angels aren't maxed out, but in order to maintain financial stability and freedom to spend in the future (FA 2B next year, extensions for Richards, Maldonado, Trout, Simmons, Heaney, etc..) they'll avoid making pricey acquisitions.

The same goes for building the farm. One of the main cogs toward making the Angels a perennial contender is a farm system that is continually stocking the major Shoe team with cost effective young players.

So I don't think the Angels will be trading many of their upside position prospects that are 3+ years out. Adell, Marsh, Hunter Jr., Maitan, Soto....

They'll also need to hold onto their pitching prospects like Barria, Canning and Rodriguez.

I think overall, the next three years or so, the Angels remain pretty neutral in free agency. They'll sign a ton of extensions, and get some low cost pitching, they may make 1-2 big trades, but nothing so eventful as this offseason. The most exciting things that'll happen are likely a Trout extension that keeps him here until he's 40, prospects replacing our current players (Albert retiring, Upton moving to DH, Jahmai Jones in LF, Matt Thaiss to 1B, Canning and Barria in the rotation, Adell replacing Calhoun in RF, Marsh moving to 1B and Thaiss moving to DH, Maitan inheriting 3B).