Can Angels win World Series?

[Torridd]

With the current roster and healthy, can we win the Series or do you think we still need pieces? If so, who do you recommend?

[Stradling]

I think we need a starter, a closer and a very useful 4th outfielder. Then we need health and a little luck.  The team as constructed should win 85+ games. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think we need a starter, a closer and a very useful 4th outfielder. Then we need health and a little luck.  The team as constructed should win 85+ games. 

I think you're selling this team a little short with 85 win prediction. They won 80 games last year with holes in LF, 2B, and 3B. Their entire pitching rotation went on the DL for most of the season with the exception of the HR king of the mound Nolasco. They are at least 10 games better than last year, at least 10 wins better.

[Troll Daddy]

Vegas likes our chances ... they’re running a little scared right now 

[Dtwncbad]

Anybody who gets to the postseason with two hot starters, a mean bullpen, and an above average lineup can win the World Series.

Obviously some teams are more stacked than others.  But it is pretty common that the best team on paper or the best two teams on paper don't end up winning it.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Troll Daddy said:

Vegas likes our chances ... they’re running a little scared right now 

Vegas doesn’t run scared in December. 

[Troll Daddy]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Anybody who gets to the postseason with two hot starters, a mean bullpen, and an above average lineup can win the World Series.

Obviously some teams are more stacked than others.  But it is pretty common that the best team on paper or the best two teams on paper don't end up winning it.

2017 being the exception

[Troll Daddy]

Just now, Stradling said:

Vegas doesn’t run scared in December. 

What would you know about that lol

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Troll Daddy said:

2017 being the exception

Of course and I'm glad.  It would be lousy if the best team NEVER won it all.

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

I think you're selling this team a little short with 85 win prediction. They won 80 games last year with holes in LF, 2B, and 3B. Their entire pitching rotation went on the DL for most of the season with the exception of the HR king of the mound Nolasco. They are at least 10 games better than last year, at least 10 wins better.

The question was can this team win the WS.  I have no idea what the bullpen looks like.  I have no idea if the teams pitching will be healthy.  Right now we have a fourth outfielder that is an everyday minor league player.  How will he react to being a part time player.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

What would you know about that lol

I would assume I know about the same as you on the subject.  That for every bet they lose on money bet on the Angels they will crush it on money bet on the clear cut favorites. 

[Blarg]

I don't think the Angels are a finished product and doubtful this is the season it all comes together. They will be a hell if a lot more fun to watch if the team is healthy and plays to its abilities but as constructed I think they don't get out of the second round of playoffs. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

I don't think the Angels are a finished product and doubtful this is the season it all comes together. They will be a hell if a lot more fun to watch if the team is healthy and plays to its abilities but as constructed I think they don't get out of the second round of playoffs. 

I agree with this.  The only way this team as currently constructed wins it all is if Richards is a healthy ace and Ohtani is as good as advertised.  It will take that and some bullpen surprises.  

[wopphil]

31 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think we need a starter, a closer and a very useful 4th outfielder. Then we need health and a little luck.  The team as constructed should win 85+ games. 

I couldn't agree more. I hope Eppler sees these as needs as well.

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree with this.  The only way this team as currently constructed wins it all is if Richards is a healthy ace and Ohtani is as good as advertised.  It will take that and some bullpen surprises.  

Plus:

At least 1 if not 2 of skaggs/heaney/shoe return as 80 percent of their best case scenario....which is a lot of ifs.

I also think were a little too blase about eppler fixing the bullpen cheap. As pleasant of a suprise as it was, it could just as easily be an unpleasant one next year.

Lastly, while we upgraded 2B and 3B, both have maintain. Im not expecting star levels, but both have to at least be average bats. We upgraded for sure, but we upgraded from crap, so it cant just be "well, its better than last year". And simmons' bat is still not a guarantee.

Im not trying to sound negative. I think we are for sure a wild card contender (with a few more tweaks). But if were asking if this team is a real contender...a whole shit ton has to go right.

Maybe we're due for some good luck finally...

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I think we need a starter, a closer and a very useful 4th outfielder. Then we need health and a little luck.  The team as constructed should win 85+ games. 

You only see a 5 game improvement from this roster to last? 
I agree with the needs but not the estimate.  
I also don't think we are done.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

You only see a 5 game improvement from this roster to last? 
I agree with the needs but not the estimate.  
I also don't think we are done.

That’s why I put the little plus sign after 85 wins.  I truly believe we will win more games but that pen has as much of a chance to be a real problem as it does to be average.  What I can’t see from the current group is it being a strength.  

[Angelsjunky]

Yes, they can - but as others have said, a lot has to go just right.

Right now the Angels are the 2nd best team in the division, and probably the 5th or 6th best team in the league (after the Astros, Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, possibly Twins, as well). Not too shabby, all things considered.

[TooCool]

It's tough to say. On paper, we look good. But I still think they need to fire Scioscia before we get anywhere. And obviously, our players need to stay healthy and that is never the case.

I think ultimately, many people think we'll still make the wild card at best because you can't rule out the Astros winning the division.

[Docwaukee]

I agree with Strad.  Pitching health concerns me.  But we have to be more than 5 wins better than last year right?  

We got 300 innings from Nolasco and Chavez to the tune of an era above 5.00.  If that alone get's replaced by 150 innings by both Ohtani and Richards then that's a huge step.  

I think we could use a guy like Trevor Cahill.  I really really really don't want them to commit 9 figures to a guy entering their 30+yo seasons like Darvish or Arrieta.  

Again, I could see Eppler waiting this out a bit now on the SP side.  Chatwood was the guy imo.  But Cahill could be a total sleeper.  

And spend the 12mil per for 3 years on a closer.  You'll get at least two good years out of that.  

Pitching stays healthy enough for Ohtani, Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoe to each make 25 starts with the 35ish from  a combo of Trop, Bridwell, Ramirez, Barria, we become a top 12 rotation imo.  

Starters last year had a 5.5 WAR.  Top 12 had about 12 WAR.  Not counting the additions of Cozart or Kinsler (or Ohtani's bat), that's 6.5 wins.  Everyone get their idols and voodoo dolls and rabbit's feet out.  We need pitching health.  

The other thing to keep in mind is that we had a top 5 bullpen last year.  Eppler is good but I bet that was an over achievement even by his expectations.  That's going to regress a shade unless we add a legit closer and another legit pen arm.  

Other interesting options besides Cahill.  Lackey, Brett Anderson, Jaime Garcia, Chacin, and of course the obvious in Reed, Davis or Holland.  

For the last bench spot - how about Dyson, Howie, Jon Jay, or Granderson?  

[Angelsjunky]

I agree with Stradling's assessment of "85+" wins. I'd put the over/under on wins at around 87, with anything from 84-90 being within the realm of likelihood (In other words, it wouldn't be surprising for the team to win 84 to 90 wins). 

To win fewer than 84, bad stuff has to happen. To win more than 90, good stuff has to happen. 

Signing Darvish probably improves that 84-90 range to something like 86-92. To get higher than that the Angels either have to over-spend on the bullpen and/or find some way to further upgrade the offense. I don't see that as happening, unless Eppler can somehow pull off a magical Freddie Freeman trade and let Pujols know he's going to be a part-time player. One can dream...

[Warfarin]

44 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Plus:

At least 1 if not 2 of skaggs/heaney/shoe return as 80 percent of their best case scenario....which is a lot of ifs.

I also think were a little too blase about eppler fixing the bullpen cheap. As pleasant of a suprise as it was, it could just as easily be an unpleasant one next year.

Lastly, while we upgraded 2B and 3B, both have maintain. Im not expecting star levels, but both have to at least be average bats. We upgraded for sure, but we upgraded from crap, so it cant just be "well, its better than last year". And simmons' bat is still not a guarantee.

Im not trying to sound negative. I think we are for sure a wild card contender (with a few more tweaks). But if were asking if this team is a real contender...a whole shit ton has to go right.

Maybe we're due for some good luck finally...

I think this is a good take.  It's good to try to objectively analyze the team, as that helps us set realistic expectations and likewise see room to improve.  We're definitely quite a bit better today than we were at the end of the season.  We finished 80-82.  Are we 10 wins better?  I'm not so sure, but we're a solid 5-7 wins better for sure, I'd say.  With some luck, then yeah, we can be 10 wins better.  It also depends on further moves, as I likewise suspect we aren't quite finished just yet.

[ten ocho recon scout]

7 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think this is a good take.  It's good to try to objectively analyze the team, as that helps us set realistic expectations and likewise see room to improve.  We're definitely quite a bit better today than we were at the end of the season.  We finished 80-82.  Are we 10 wins better?  I'm not so sure, but we're a solid 5-7 wins better for sure, I'd say.  With some luck, then yeah, we can be 10 wins better.  It also depends on further moves, as I likewise suspect we aren't quite finished just yet.

Agreed. I think as exciting as it is thst were finally making some real moves, bear in mind, we're also banking on best case scenarios... anyone remember the padres making far bigger moves a few years back? When they grabbed kemp? ..

For our own history, we got rid of trumbo and said no woriies, ibanez! Then joyce! Etc etc.

Again, were improved for sure, but not without question marks. And like Doc said, i have a feeling the bullpen was a bit lucky. Id be more comfortable if we improve that with a bonafide shut down guy.

[Angelsjunky]

Back to my range for a bit. As I see it, with no further changes:

<74 wins: Trout abducted by aliens, Ohtani is Blowtani, Pujols bats cleanup all year, Maldy catches Grich's last major league pitch, which happens to include his severed arm gripping the ball.

75-83 wins: Tons of injuries.

84-87 wins: Some injuries but not excessive. Most players perform as expected.

88-90 wins: Generally good healthy, some positive "progression to the mean" from some players.

91+ wins: Health all around, and some surprise performances/breakthroughs.

So again, I think the over-under is around 87.5 wins.

[UndertheHalo]

If everything works out.  Sure. 

It’s always going to be like that.  You need luck as much as you need talent to win a championship.  I think this team has enough talent.