Angels sign Cozart to 3-year deal

[hangin n wangin]

3 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

Not saying he's the next Justin Turner, but it's a comparable story. Turner wasn't much of anything until a few yrs ago himself after making changes to his swing. I'm sure the Halos are hoping they found their own Justin Turner in Cozart. An excellent defensive 3B whose breakout at the plate is sustainable

Very true! Let's hope. It's not common for players to figure things out at age 30-32, but it does happen, and Turner is a good example. 

[Troll Daddy]

He’s white and has a red beard ... I like it

[Slegnaac]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Ok, sure.  But who cares?  There are literally 100 other guys in the minors/majors who are just like Marte, so the Angels would just be getting some random schmoe from another team's system if it happened.  I guess when I think of "trade target," I think of someone who has actual value.

Trade Marte for a new body that still has an option left, that way they have a warm body that can be shuttled as needed.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

F that, if he wanted to be an Angel, he could have simply told Boras to make it happen.  If he can't make it happen, then the Angels truly had no desire to sign him at all.  

He would cost a 2nd round draft pick, not sure if that had anything to do with it but...

[UndertheHalo]

Why do people not understand that Marte is worthless ?

[OregonLAA]

Angels haven’t given up a note worthy prospect yet this off season and now have some flexibility towards getting 2B or 3B next year because of this move. This helps us now and next year. Pretty sweet deal

[bloodbrother]

7 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Very true! Let's hope. It's not common for players to figure things out at age 30-32, but it does happen, and Turner is a good example. 

Jose Bautista is another example of somebody at age 30 changing their swing and turning things around. It's definitely not common, but hopefully the gains Cozart made are real. At the very least, his defense should be well above average. If he can just pair league average offense with his defense, he'll probably be another Kole Calhoun type player for this team. At less than $13 mill per yr, that's something any team would gladly take

[krAbs]

from MLBTradeRumors:
"Whether he can sustain that level of power remains to be seen, but it’s worth emphasizing that Cozart’s 12.2 percent walk rate and 24.4 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone were far and away the best marks of his career. Those positive trends suggest that much of his improvement at the dish was legitimate, even if the power could be difficult to replicate. Those of the mind that his power spike was in any way tied to his hitter-friendly home park in Cincinnati, though, should also take note that 12 of Cozart’s 24 homers came on the road, and his .279 road ISO handily topped his .230 mark at home."

[SoWhat]

 

 

[TooCool]

Wow! I actually didn't see this one coming. Great signing considering he was an All-Star last year.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Quick question, does Cozart have an QA?  also looks like he changed his launch angel last year, Hopefully we get Murphy 2.0

 

 

[krAbs]

2 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Yep. Cozart is still a 2 WAR player without the ridiculous hitting. If he actually figured out the hitting like he says, he's an absolute game changer.

And weirdly, Kinsler is almost the opposite. If his hitting has fallen apart, he is a 1-2 WAR player. But, if he comes back, he is also a game changer. It seems unlikely that they will both hit, but...man, that would be something to see.

[krAbs]

2 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Quick question, does Cozart have an QA?  also looks like he changed his launch angel last year, Hopefully we get Murphy 2.0

 

 

According to mlb.com, he did not have a QA.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Both of these are great signings,lets say if both Kinsler and Cozart regress next year we still get about 2 war from each position, which was way more than last year. But if they don't we'll be a really good team.

[Tank]

i like this move. 3b, 2b, and LF have been taken care of before Christmas.

let's see what eppy can do for the pitching next.

[Biergott]

So relieved we stayed away from Headley!  I step away from refreshing this site all day long and Eppler sneaks in another move.  Dude is on fire!  Pitching next please!

[bloodbrother]

4 minutes ago, krAbs said:

According to mlb.com, he did not have a QA.

Correct. He did not receive a QO. Angels don't lose a draft pick for signing him. Eppler is improving the MLB roster without sacrificing their farm.

[Docwaukee]

Nice move.  I don't think we overpaid or underpaid.  Seems like a fair deal for his skill set.  Had a feeling once the Pads traded for Galvis, this would get done.  

A little risk here with a league change, position change, and coming off a career year. 

A bunch of saber articles comparing xwOBA (expected weighted OBA is a metric formulated using launch angle and exit velo) to his actual wOBA have him as the third highest outlier in that his expected is much lower than his actual.  Other outliers (bottom 10) - Nunez, Marwin Gonzalez, Cozart, Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, Scooter Gennett, Charlie Blackmon, Didi, Inciarte, and Jose Ramirez.  

At the top of the list are Cabrera, Moreland, Pujols, Kendrys, Alex Gordon, Hanley, Machado, Choo, Castellanos and Cano.  

The reason I bring it up is that the previous year top 3 were Morales, Cabrera and Pujols.  The bottom of the list had some repeat offenders as well.  

The question isn't whether Cozart's year was an outlier but is it sustainable.  while the above is essentially predicting it won't be, xwOBA variances seem repeatable by certain types of players.  Maybe the hand position change gave him that extra fraction of a second to decide on a pitch. 

Personally, I think that bears out in the other metrics.  12.2% bb rate.  highest of his career by almost double.  A not so gaudy BABIP of .312.  His highest FB rate.  A similar LD rate.  A Oswing rate of 24.4%.  Best of his career with the next closest at 28.3%.  

Yes there was some luck, but he also just got better.  Even if he puts up a wOBA of .332 next year (his xwOBA for 2017), that would translate into a wRC+ of between 100-112.  Simmons was at 103 with a wOBA of .323.  Calhoun at 98 with a wOBA of .315.  

Avg offense and very good defense would put him in the range of someone like Kyle Seager (3.5 WAR, wRC+ of 106) or 2017 Machado (yep. it's true.  2.8 WAR with plus D and a wRC+ of 102).   If he completely reverts back to his old hitting with a wRC+ of 90 then he's the 2.0 WAR player mentioned.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

28 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think it’s extremely unlikely Pujols even starts 50 games at first.  Most likely, we see him start around 25-30 games at first.  Moreover, at age 38, it’s likely he spends significant chunks of time on the DL.

We can potentially add LoMo given this.  It’s not necessary at all, but possibly something to consider.  We no longer need to save a roster space for a utility infielder, since Cozart fills that role in addition to being our primary 3B.

A couple ways you could split the Bench up between the final 4 spots with the "Flexibility Angle":

Josh Harrison IF/OF/RHPH/PR ---- Can play everything but SS

Backup Catcher Perez/Geritol --- Whatever his name is.

Valbuena CIF/LHDH/LHPH --- He's here we own him he's more flexible than CJ.... Keep him!

Moreland/Lomo 1B/LHDH/COF/LHPH --- Though I love the thought of another Lefty bopper I don't believe the stats will remain the same as Moreland needs approx 520 ab's to put up 22 HR's... LOMO needs 550 to put up 22 HR's on AVG. I wouldn't believe either player would receive those kind of AB's so their value is diminished in this flexibility type lineup thinking. (**Which also depends on Ohtani's # of At bats**)And neither has played much more than 1B/DH since 2014/2015 for each when each played a game or two in LF.

Revere/EYJR type player 4th OF/PR/PH --- Each can fill in at any spot! Though they do have fleas notably their arm in CF or RF.

 

[fan_since79]

I would rather have a 3rd baseman with more offense, but the defense seems to be there. Last year's .933 OPS might be an aberration.

I don't know...not that excited about him as some here, especially for that money. He's also 32 years old.

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by fan_since79

[nando714]

15 minutes ago, OregonLAA said:

Angels haven’t given up a note worthy prospect yet this off season and now have some flexibility towards getting 2B or 3B next year because of this move. This helps us now and next year. Pretty sweet deal

Yup. Cozart can slide over to second or stay at 3rd depending on who’s available next off season 

[nando714]

2 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

I would rather have a 3rd baseman with more offense, but the defense seems to be there.

I don't know...not that excited about him as some here.

 

I agree

i don’t like Cozart. He had a nice offensive season in his walk year. I get that he plays all over in the infield and is good defensively. 

But remember we got zero power from LF over the last few years. Upton should be good for 30 bombs.

we do need that lefty though. Imo

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, Dick B Back said:

Cool, glad they didn't do the Moose thing.

It would have been a Moostake.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

A couple ways you could split the Bench up between the final 4 spots with the "Flexibility Angle":

Josh Harrison IF/OF/RHPH/PR ---- Can play everything but SS

Backup Catcher Perez/Geritol --- Whatever his name is.

Valbuena CIF/LHDH/LHPH --- He's here we own him he's more flexible than CJ.... Keep him!

Moreland/Lomo 1B/LHDH/COF/LHPH --- Though I love the thought of the Lefty bopper I don't believe the stats will remain the same as Moreland needs approx 520 ab's to put up 22 HR's... LOMO needs 550 to put up 22 HR's on AVG. I wouldn't believe either player would receive those kind of AB's so their value is diminished in this flexibility type lineup thinking. And neither has played much more than 1B/DH since 2014/2015 for each when each played a game or two in LF.

Revere/EYJR type player 4th OF/PR/PH --- Each can fill in at any spot! Though they do have fleas notably their arm in CF or RF.

 

Harrison would be neat, but I don’t think we’d go for him, as there aren’t enough ABs for him anymore.

I’m fine with Valbuena being our starting 1B most of the time, with Pujols playing 1-2 times a week.  LoMo would be a possible upgrade, but isn’t necessarily needed either.  

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

 

 

that's 40 runs better than avg. defenders btw.  not replacement.