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Does Longoria Make Sense


Dave Saltzer

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Okay, just speculation because I'm *hoping* the collective wisdom of the board may be greater than what I can come up with at this point (been rather sick and going on very little sleep). But, I read that the Rays may go full rebuild at mlbtraderumors.com and started to wonder if Longoria made any sense. Yes, he's on the wrong side of 30, but so are most of the 3B options we are looking at. Yes, his OB is trending down, but he would still be a big improvement over what we got out of the position. His defense is still solid. His contract is affordable and would give us plenty of room to add a 2nd baseman, upgrade 1B, and possibly add a pitcher. 

 

So, my two questions to the board are these: 1) Does Longoria make sense for us? 2) If so, what would it take to get him?

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Although his contract isn't back-breaking it isn't great. Feels like this ship has sailed and the Angels can do better. Of course everything hinges on the acquisition price of which we would have little insight but I would pass on this discussion unless he came dirt cheap.

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I'd be on board if he only had 2 years left on his contract. As it stands, he has 5. 

That said, he's had a good amount of success in AL West parks, and is still at worst a solid defender at 3rd. 

IMO, he's worth considering but only for middling prospects. Something like Thaiss, Ward, Smith, and Fletcher at the absolute most. 

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He is a consistent 150+ games a year player, so that's a plus.  His OPS was the lowest of his career last season at .737, but he's just one season apart from a .840 OPS.  He just won a gold glove, so his D is still there.  You combine that with our guy at short, and well, that just created a brick wall on the left side of the field.  WAR wise, even with the down offensive year, he still is a 3 war player.  

Salary wise:

Quote

18:$13.5M, 19:$14.5M, 20:$15M, 21:$18.5M,22:$19.5M, 23:$13M club option ($5M buyout)

For the price, it's not that bad.  2021 and 22 are the bad one's, and if we could get it down to around $15 million it would be preferable, but I don't think it's a dealbreaker.  And he's a So Cal Boy, so this may be one place that he may want to go to.  

He's on the wrong side of 30, but for the price (considering arbitration players are getting more than what he's getting) I think you really have to consider it.

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25 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

Right handed hitter. No speed and low obp. To me it feels like putting a $14 million C.J. Cron on the other side of the diamond 

His AAV would be less than his actual cash payout (I think his AAV would only be about $9.5 million). If we want to stay below the luxury tax, that is a valuable asset. Last year he had a WAR of 3.6 and his career numbers are 270/341/483. By way of comparison Moustakas would cost twice as much in AAV and his a career line of 251/305/425. In his career year last year,l he was worth 1.8 WAR according to baseball reference. And, there's no way we're signing Moustakas for less than a 5-year deal. So, as a comparison, is Longoria worth it?

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2 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

His AAV would be less than his actual cash payout (I think his AAV would only be about $9.5 million). If we want to stay below the luxury tax, that is a valuable asset. Last year he had a WAR of 3.6 and his career numbers are 270/341/483. By way of comparison Moustakas would cost twice as much in AAV and his a career line of 251/305/425. In his career year last year,l he was worth 1.8 WAR according to baseball reference. And, there's no way we're signing Moustakas for less than a 5-year deal. So, as a comparison, is Longoria worth it?

I'm pretty sure it doesn't work that way. The AAV resets when a player is traded, so it's the AAV of what you're paying him that counts against your CBT payroll.

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Longoria might be a move you make in February if somehow he completes a larger plan.

But I would be pretty concerned if the Angels were pursuing this guy in November.

Edit:  I could see Longoria being at the center of a bold move if he was part of the Angels providing salary relief in a larger deal to land Archer.

Other than something like that he is only a late offseason afterthought to maybe add more predictability to 3B after other significant moves are made.

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1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

What do you mean "the contract brings no value"? 

What would it cost to sign Frazier?

When you can land the same production for less and not give away prospects. . .

That's what I mean by no value in the contract.  Why pay in prospects for something when you can get it elsewhere without giving up talent?

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5/67 isn't a bad deal, even for his age 32-36 seasons. However, his offense fell below the league average line last year for the first time and you have to wonder about his overall game heading in the wrong direction. 

Longoria is someone I thought about last offseason but he didn't pop in my mind until now. I think he's an interesting player to acquire considering the contract price would drive the prospect price down. 

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His glove still plays and he had a nice season last year but...

2017 - .424 - 100
2016 - .521 - 127
2015 - .435 - 112
2014 - .404 - 107

Those numbers represent his SLG% and OPS+ during his age 28-31 seasons, essentially the back end of what would be considered his peak seasons -- not really the sort of numbers that make you want to commit to 5 more years and 86 mil...   Trading for Longo now is trading for the worst part of his contract in what should prove to be the worst stage of his career..

Based on the glove alone he might prove to be a better value than Moustakas, but neither guy represents the best use of the Angels limited payroll, IMO.

 

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4 minutes ago, Brent Maguire said:

5/67 isn't a bad deal, even for his age 32-36 seasons. However, his offense fell below the league average line last year for the first time and you have to wonder about his overall game heading in the wrong direction. 

Longoria is someone I thought about last offseason but he didn't pop in my mind until now. I think he's an interesting player to acquire considering the contract price would drive the prospect price down. 

According to BBRef.com...

2018 32 Tampa Bay Rays $13,500,000 9.170  
2019 33 Tampa Bay Rays $14,500,000    
2020 34 Tampa Bay Rays $15,000,000    
2021 35 Tampa Bay Rays $18,500,000    
2022 36 Tampa Bay Rays $19,500,000    
2023 37 Tampa Bay Rays *$13,000,000   $13M Team Option, $5M Buyout

They will have to pay 5 mil to avoid that 6th option year...   So... 5/86 minimum.

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2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

According to BBRef.com...

2018 32 Tampa Bay Rays $13,500,000 9.170  
2019 33 Tampa Bay Rays $14,500,000    
2020 34 Tampa Bay Rays $15,000,000    
2021 35 Tampa Bay Rays $18,500,000    
2022 36 Tampa Bay Rays $19,500,000    
2023 37 Tampa Bay Rays *$13,000,000   $13M Team Option, $5M Buyout

They will have to pay 5 mil to avoid that 6th option year...   So... 5/86 minimum.

Hmmm. That changes things a bit. I wouldn't be surprised if he was worth that contract in the end but I'm not comfortable taking that risk given he just tanked offensively in his age 31 season. This could be his new norm now. 

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