What does JD's contract teach us about Upton?

[disarcina]

Upton signing is good for us and about what we could do.

he is pretty solid - didn't he get the silver slugger award for the AL?

five years is a longer contract than I would have liked to see - but he'll produce for the Halos.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 11/11/2017 at 10:56 PM, Erstad Grit said:

Once JD signs we'll discover how good/bad deal we got with Upton. 

J.D. Martinez Reportedly Seeking $210MM Deal

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/jd-martinez-rumor-200-million-asking-price.html

[VariousCrap]

I would argue that the Angels don't need Suarez to hit 20+ home runs a season.  If he could hit 15-20 a season, that would be more than adequate for this team.  Especially if he bring solid defense with him.

[VariousCrap]

27 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

J.D. Martinez Reportedly Seeking $210MM Deal

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/jd-martinez-rumor-200-million-asking-price.html

 

That is ridiculous.  If someone pays that, they are insane.  He's good, but he's not that good.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

That is ridiculous.  If someone pays that, they are insane.  He's good, but he's not that good.

If he signs that type of deal then I can only assume we did better with our signing of Upton for half the price.  Upton is just an all around better player, with less power.  So if JD gets more than $105 million, I will believe we got the better end of the deal. 

[Mark68]

Nobody's paying JD Martinez $210 million.

Nobody.

He'll get something like 6/$150.

[VariousCrap]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If he signs that type of deal then I can only assume we did better with our signing of Upton for half the price.  Upton is just an all around better player, with less power.  So if JD gets more than $105 million, I will believe we got the better end of the deal. 

 

Completely agree.  That is why I think no matter what Martinez signs for, the Angels still got a better deal with Upton.

[ettin]

25 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

Nobody's paying JD Martinez $210 million.

Nobody.

He'll get something like 6/$150.

The free agent market has been depressed a bit for the last two seasons, partly due to a lack of high-end talent available but also due to demand at certain positions (gluts at 1B, dry in SP for instance). So you basically haven't seen the steady increase in overall FA prices and I think over the next two years, you'll see an explosion in the average FA value, particularly starting next season when Harper, Kershaw, and Machado hit the block.

Bottom line is I agree that Martinez will be challenged to hit $210 (I think he lands closer to 6 years/$180M) but he will get closer to $30M because JD's comp is closer to Yoenis Cespedes. Really it is going to come down to total years vs. AAV. The more years J.D. gets the lower that AAV could be. Boras is shooting for that $30M per year threshold and I think he'll get it with Martinez being so hot right now (cue Zoolander gifs).

20 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

Completely agree.  That is why I think no matter what Martinez signs for, the Angels still got a better deal with Upton.

Agreed I think we got Upton at a pretty fair price.

[Mark68]

31 minutes ago, ettin said:

The free agent market has been depressed a bit for the last two seasons, partly due to a lack of high-end talent available but also due to demand at certain positions (gluts at 1B, dry in SP for instance). So you basically haven't seen the steady increase in overall FA prices and I think over the next two years, you'll see an explosion in the average FA value, particularly starting next season when Harper, Kershaw, and Machado hit the block.

Bottom line is I agree that Martinez will be challenged to hit $210 (I think he lands closer to 6 years/$180M) but he will get closer to $30M because JD's comp is closer to Yoenis Cespedes. Really it is going to come down to total years vs. AAV. The more years J.D. gets the lower that AAV could be. Boras is shooting for that $30M per year threshold and I think he'll get it with Martinez being so hot right now (cue Zoolander gifs).

Agreed I think we got Upton at a pretty fair price.

I don't know about the $30 million AAV. Martinez is a fairly one-dimensional player, in that he's best suited as a DH. He brings little defensive value. I still think Harper and/or Machado (whichever one signs first next offseason) will cross that threshold (more than likely will cross the $35 million AAV threshold).

[Dtwncbad]

Martinez will get 6/134ish.  The base of the offer comes from:

25 mill times 4 = 100.

Plus 18 x 1= 18 for 5th yr.

Plus 16 x 1 = 16 for 6th yr.

How it is strategically structured, maybe front or backload, whatever. . .but my prediction is 6 yrs about $134.

[aznhockeyguy]

Don't care what Martinez gets, if he gets 210 mil good for him.  So glad Angels signed Upton as he is IMO a better all around player as he brings speed and a decent glove as well and signed for a good amount, but not a contract that will handcuff the Angels. 

[Dtwncbad]

8 hours ago, aznhockeyguy said:

Don't care what Martinez gets, if he gets 210 mil good for him.  So glad Angels signed Upton as he is IMO a better all around player as he brings speed and a decent glove as well and signed for a good amount, but not a contract that will handcuff the Angels. 

I dont disagree with spirit of what you are saying but I do care what Martinez gets.

I dont want him to get a deal too big because that means the market moved again and makes other impact players harder to fit under the luxury cap.  So that has an effect on the Angels.

And I hate to say it but I dont want Upton to have any reason to regret his decision.  It would be human nature to be let down and be demotivated if you think you left 30 million on the table.

Anybody else remember Rickey Henderson going from the biggest smile on earth to being deeply hurt in a snap after a bunch if people got contracts equal or better than his?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

22 hours ago, ettin said:

Bottom line is I agree that Martinez will be challenged to hit $210 (I think he lands closer to 6 years/$180M) but he will get closer to $30M because JD's comp is closer to Yoenis

Trout is making $34M/yr over the next 3 years, having JD approach his salary is insane. He is not even close to the player Trout is. J D at best is a 4 WAR player. Trout's average is more than double that of J D's.

[eaterfan]

4 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Trout is making $34M/yr over the next 3 years, having JD approach his salary is insane. He is not even close to the player Trout is. J D at best is a 4 WAR player. Trout's average is more than double that of J D's.

Mike Trout was never a free agent. Think about how much more JD Martinez will make compared to Aaron Judge and it will blow your mind!

[ettin]

13 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Trout is making $34M/yr over the next 3 years, having JD approach his salary is insane. He is not even close to the player Trout is. J D at best is a 4 WAR player. Trout's average is more than double that of J D's.

Trout signed an extension while Martinez is signing in free agency. There is a huge difference in how much anyone would get paid comparatively.

Cespedes signed for 4 years, $110M last off-season. That is $27.5M per year AAV. We are now jumping ahead one year so you'd realistically expect the bottom of J.D.'s contract, as a comp off of Yoenis, to be $27.5M per year. Martinez is likely shooting for a 5-7 year deal and will probably get 5-6 years. The shorter the length the higher the AAV. It would not be at all surprising if he gets 5 years, $150 or 6 years, $180 as the rough range.

Respectfully Ace, this is how free agency works. Free agents find comparable players that signed previously and base their ask prices off of those comp's by adding inflation and relative production differences into the negotiations. Martinez is coming off a red-hot year and can probably ask for a 6-7 year deal at $30M per season and he will probably get it, particularly since the Red Sox are so tied to him right now and Dave Dombrowski has history with the player. Other than Stanton he is the hottest commodity in the outfield market this year.

[Dtwncbad]

21 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Martinez will get 6/134ish.  The base of the offer comes from:

25 mill times 4 = 100.

Plus 18 x 1= 18 for 5th yr.

Plus 16 x 1 = 16 for 6th yr.

How it is strategically structured, maybe front or backload, whatever. . .but my prediction is 6 yrs about $134.

Rethinking my own numbers. . .I am off.

6/160.  I forgot what Cespedes got per year.

[aznhockeyguy]

11 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I dont disagree with spirit of what you are saying but I do care what Martinez gets.

I dont want him to get a deal too big because that means the market moved again and makes other impact players harder to fit under the luxury cap.  So that has an effect on the Angels.

And I hate to say it but I dont want Upton to have any reason to regret his decision.  It would be human nature to be let down and be demotivated if you think you left 30 million on the table.

Anybody else remember Rickey Henderson going from the biggest smile on earth to being deeply hurt in a snap after a bunch if people got contracts equal or better than his?

You make some valid arguments and excellent points.  Buyers (signors?) remorse.