Angels explored RF upgrade.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Most difficult for me is, who exactly is a clear enough upgrade? Especially with cost considered?

Even in the Cron v. FA 1B debates, it was pretty easy to see who clear upgrades would be, but 'affordable' corner OFs that are a sure bet to outproduce Kole aren't numerous.

Yeah I don't get it either. There's no way they consider Herm a clear upgrade. Stanton is the only clear upgrade that makes any sense. 

[Rico]

Just testing the waters I guess.  Always good to know how much other teams value what you have.  

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

You're literally taking out an entire season because it doesn't fit your argument. That's the definition of cherry picking. Plus, you're using a year in which he had fewer than 200 at bats as the start of a trend and I mean come on now.

He's had 4 full seasons and all have been average-at-worst. He's not a star by any means, but he's a valuable player. IMO this is a classic case of NotTroutitis. 

Okay, remove Kole's half season in '13. He still declined from '14 to '15, jumped up in '16, and then fell lower than any previous in '17. 

Even with his debut season out of the picture, he's declined in 3 of 4 seasons. 

At the very least, I don't think you can discount me for pointing out four years of declining trends anymore than you can get on me for discounting one year where he ticked back up. 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Yeah I don't get it either. There's no way they consider Herm a clear upgrade. Stanton is the only clear upgrade that makes any sense. 

It definitely wouldn't be Herm. Stanton is obvious. Only thing I could think of is if there is a certain plus-tool they are desiring that Kole doesn't possess (speed, legit power, elite OBP) and they've identified a way to acquire it at a fair or cheap cost, a price better than they'd pay getting that same tool applied with a 2B/3B upgrade.

But again, I struggle to think of anyone that makes sense.

[tdawg87]

Well, technically it's two years of declining. 

Btw his walk rate the last two years are the best it's ever been. 

[Angelsjunky]

Gonna have to go with the dawg on this one. 2016 accounts for 23% of Kole's major league games. Hard to erase that from the record.

Anyhow, 2017 looks more like an outlier than 2016. There's no reason to think that Kole isn't capable of producing a ~110 OPS+ and ~3 WAR. That's about league average for a right fielder.

[Second Base]

I think Hermosillo will be every bit as good as Calhoun, but I also know the Angels aren't the aggressive type when it comes to promotion. 

I think year by year, you can count on Kole to give you .260/.330 30 DB 20 HR and good defense. 

Michael will be the type that will give you .250/.350 30 DB 10 HR and 30-40 SB with good defense.

I think the end result is you lose 10 HR but get on base at a better clip and gain 30 SB. 

But if the Angels are looking to trade, it seems like more of a here and now thing. Perhaps Stanton or  they package Calhoun for a player like Josh Donaldson and bring in Hermosillo.

[Tank]

34 minutes ago, Rico said:

Just testing the waters I guess.  Always good to know how much other teams value what you have.  

This, in spades.

[tomsred]

I think it's almost impossible to gauge what might really be going on here.  The unknown is what other moves the team expects to make, and put in that context you could even weaken yourself in RF if other spots get significantly upgraded.  Maybe Eppler has a lot of confidence in the young outfielders in the system to the point that he will take a hit on RF to gain valuable infield talent, or pitching.  We are less than a month away from the Winter Meetings, I would think a lot of teams would like to solidify their strategy before going there.

[arch stanton]

I'm sure there's teams out there who believe that Kole could hit better in a friendlier park and be valuable to them

[tomsred]

17 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

I'm sure there's teams out there who believe that Kole could hit better in a friendlier park and be valuable to them

Heck yeah, let's start with the Yankees just because he's a left handed bat.  We can trade him for the Judge.

[ettin]

2 hours ago, nate said:

I guess Kole's arm in RF is worth a lot.  Maybe I am just jaded but he seems so streaky and inconsistent at the plate that he is JAG

 

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

That's just one season's worth though. He's been a fairly consistent 2.5-3.5 WAR player at a good age and good all around skills with a club-friendly contract. I think you can look at the haul Arizona got for Adam Eaton and scale back a tier there and it'd be fair. For all of his all-around skill, his OBP has been mostly trending the wrong way since he became a regular, so I could see how an improvement could be made.

A player like Kole is way more valuable in an offseason trade instead of a midseason trade too.

I still think Stanton, Gordon, and maybe Prado/reliever for Calhoun, a SP, and a couple OF prospects makes plenty of sense for both sides.

Kole's excellent defense and slightly above average bat has been good for a 3-year running average of 3.27 WAR. If you assume the value of 1 WAR in free agency is worth about $10M that's $32M this coming year if he were a free agent. He only has $33M, including his option year, left on his deal. Calhoun has a lot of surplus value when you add in his two remaining seasons after 2018 and could probably bring a top prospect in trade.

The Angels will only trade him if they get a really big upgrade however (not necessarily an OF either, could be a starter or 2B for instance).

[Docwaukee]

From 2014 through 2017, Kole is 17th by WAR among qualified OFers .  Within a little more than 1 WAR from the top 10.  Two of those other 16 are already on our team.  Heyward is one of them and no thanks.  

Betts, Harper, Stanton, Cain, McCutchen, Cruz, Kiemaier, Yelich, Blackmon, Cespedes, Springer, JD Mart, Upton, Heyward, Eaton, Calhoun.  

Others just below Kole are Marte, Inciarte, Ozuna, Jones, Gardner, Pollock, Fowler.  

3.7

3.7

3.9

2.2

Those are fWAR for Kole's last 4 years.  2017 is the outlier with a .284 BABIP (.303 career), FB rate down and GB rate up.  All other peripherals on par.  Available upgrades from the list are Yelich, Ozuna, Stanton.  

Kole went from being underrated to overrated to underrated.  

Move him now and you're selling low.   

[JustATroutFan]

6 hours ago, totdprods said:

So he had a good year out of five where he was able to spike production back up in the midst of everything else declining. 

It's not like I'm cherry-picking out multiple years from different points in time to illustrate a trend. 

I was worried about Kole before 2016 - everything was trending the wrong way, but we were so screwed with LF no one wanted to even think Kole could do any wrong. He had a good '16 and I breathed a sigh of relief that he had instead put everything together and was going to stabilize from here on. Instead he followed it up with his worst year, picking up where his trend left off. And again, at a point in his career where he should be improving. Good player, happy to have him as our starting RF, but definitely open to dealing him or finding an upgrade.

2 good years out of 4. I don't see why 2014 wasn't a good year for Kole. Yeah his OBP was decent but he made up for it with his power. And that is while playing at one of the hardest ballparks to hit in and during a year where offense was at its worst in like 30 years. Pretty impressive year.

[JarsOfClay]

7 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

That's my impression too. Maybe we don't know Billy like we thought we did.

Or maybe Arte Morono is meddling again like he did with the Justin Upton resigning.

If you guys think Upton was an Eppler move, you are delusional.

[Blarg]

8 hours ago, totdprods said:

Okay, remove Kole's half season in '13. He still declined from '14 to '15, jumped up in '16, and then fell lower than any previous in '17. 

Even with his debut season out of the picture, he's declined in 3 of 4 seasons. 

At the very least, I don't think you can discount me for pointing out four years of declining trends anymore than you can get on me for discounting one year where he ticked back up. 

Scioscia should go back to platooning him to jack his stats back up.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, JarsOfClay said:

Or maybe Arte Morono is meddling again like he did with the Justin Upton resigning.

If you guys think Upton was an Eppler move, you are delusional.

The Pinata is back to take a few more whacks again. 

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, totdprods said:

Why not?

Well, depends on what version of WAR you believe is more accurate.   fWAR has him being far less volatile..  in fact it leads to an opposite conclusion.

14 - 3.7
15 - 3.7
16 - 3.9
17 - 2.2

Using fWAR -- 2017 is the outlier...

FWIW, I use bWAR too in many of these posts because it's easier to dig up -- but I prefer the way fWAR determines it's defensive metrics and consider it to be a better when looking at full seasons.

edit: I should have known Doc or Ettin would have beaten me to the punch with the same argument...

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, JarsOfClay said:

Or maybe Arte Morono is meddling again like he did with the Justin Upton resigning.

If you guys think Upton was an Eppler move, you are delusional.

Physician heal thyself...

[tdawg87]

9 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think Hermosillo will be every bit as good as Calhoun, but I also know the Angels aren't the aggressive type when it comes to promotion. 

I think year by year, you can count on Kole to give you .260/.330 30 DB 20 HR and good defense. 

Michael will be the type that will give you .250/.350 30 DB 10 HR and 30-40 SB with good defense.

I think the end result is you lose 10 HR but get on base at a better clip and gain 30 SB. 

But if the Angels are looking to trade, it seems like more of a here and now thing. Perhaps Stanton or  they package Calhoun for a player like Josh Donaldson and bring in Hermosillo.

Oh I'm not down on Herm at all. He's one of my favorite prospects. Actually reminds me a bit of Kole in some respects. The most underappreciated player in our system IMO.

But I don't think the Angels would trade Calhoun thinking Hermosillo is a clear upgrade, unless something weird were to happen like you said in getting Donaldson.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, JarsOfClay said:

Or maybe Arte Morono is meddling again like he did with the Justin Upton resigning.

If you guys think Upton was an Eppler move, you are delusional.

You’re literally the only guy that doesn’t like the signing and considering your track record for being rational, I’ll assume you probably have zero knowledge of this as well.  Upton is a very good player, I’m not sure why Eppler wouldn’t want him on that contract. 

[Second Base]

43 minutes ago, Stradling said:

You’re literally the only guy that doesn’t like the signing and considering your track record for being rational, I’ll assume you probably have zero knowledge of this as well.  Upton is a very good player, I’m not sure why Eppler wouldn’t want him on that contract. 

I'm thinking the Upton contact will be similar to Tori Hunter's. He'll be worth the money we are paying and endear himself to the fans. His defense won't be great in the last half, but the bat won't fade.

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, JarsOfClay said:

Or maybe Arte Morono is meddling again like he did with the Justin Upton resigning.

If you guys think Upton was an Eppler move, you are delusional.

Sure Arte signed the contract but not before Eppler evaluated his talent level and what he or his replacement would cost on the open market. I think it was a win-win situation that solves our left field issue and finally erases Joyce, Nava, Robinson, Revere, Ortega, Gentry, Buss, Cowgill, Murphy, Victorino and Shuck.....did I forget anyone?

It certainly looks like Arte is letting Eppler do his job. Hopefully that trend continues. 

 

[JarsOfClay]

37 minutes ago, Calzone said:

Sure Arte signed the contract but not before Eppler evaluated his talent level and what he or his replacement would cost on the open market. I think it was a win-win situation that solves our left field issue and finally erases Joyce, Nava, Robinson, Revere, Ortega, Gentry, Buss, Cowgill, Murphy, Victorino and Shuck.....did I forget anyone?

It certainly looks like Arte is letting Eppler do his job. Hopefully that trend continues. 

 

I dont know, I see the angels 5 or 6 Uptons and 2 Greinke's away from actually competing.  No sane GM will waste 100m dollars in resources on a guy like Upton when your team is so far away from being a legit contender.  Upton even stated Arte called him and they discussed things which sounds like deja vu when Arte visited Hamilton and "discussed things."  Also Upton doesn't coincide with Eppler's philosophy of great defense, my god the guy can't even catch a routine fly ball.  

I dont doubt Upton is an upgrade in LF, and I sure hope it works out because I'm sick of our LF and 3b situation, but you make a deal like that when you are one player away from being a legit contender for a world series.  So the signing itself makes absolutely no sense to me.  

[stormngt]

10 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

I dont know, I see the angels 5 or 6 Uptons and 2 Greinke's away from actually competing.  No sane GM will waste 100m dollars in resources on a guy like Upton when your team is so far away from being a legit contender.  Upton even stated Arte called him and they discussed things which sounds like deja vu when Arte visited Hamilton and "discussed things."  Also Upton doesn't coincide with Eppler's philosophy of great defense, my god the guy can't even catch a routine fly ball.  

I dont doubt Upton is an upgrade in LF, and I sure hope it works out because I'm sick of our LF and 3b situation, but you make a deal like that when you are one player away from being a legit contender for a world series.  So the signing itself makes absolutely no sense to me.  

So what would you do?