Heyman: Angels likely to pursue Moustakas

[Mark68]

10 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

IMO the Angels should "Move on" from his horrible OBP skills.   As I've said repeatedly since before the offseason started, he is easil the most overrated bat on the market.    People will focus on the 38 Hrs and not see the mediocrity in everything else.

Besides, the 38 HRs that Moustakas hit last year can be easily duplicated with a full year of Trout and Upton. And a better year from Valbuena.

3B is an area of "like to have", not an area of "need". The money that would be spent on Moustakas can be better utilized elsewhere.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

I don't understand the lack of interest in a great defensive 30hr 3b. This reminds me of beltre. 

Moustakas?   Great defensively?

If a negative DRS, UZR, UZR/150, Def, dWAR (BBRef), makes one a great defensive 3B, then sure.   But in the real world where being a negative is below average..  not so much.

BTW -- he's had one season where he hit more than 22 HRs -- this one.    Not sure I'd want to bank on a guy seeing a huge spike in HRs in a season that's been called the season of the HR....   Is Moustakas likely to hit 35+ HRs next season without juiced baseballs?   

The Beltre comparisons start and end with them both playing 3B.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Moustakas does not remind of Beltre in any way. 

Both his balls work too...

[Dtwncbad]

Moose is to Beltre as Quayle is the JFK

[Erstad Grit]

The scenerio reminds me of beltre.  When he was at FA I wanted him bad and most here wanted nothing to do with him.  They all pointed out of beltre overperforms in walk years.  If moose did 2/3 of what he did last year it would be our best 3b in a decade.  

[Inside Pitch]

16 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

The scenerio reminds me of beltre.  When he was at FA I wanted him bad and most here wanted nothing to do with him.  They all pointed out of beltre overperforms in walk years.  If moose did 2/3 of what he did last year it would be our best 3b in a decade.  

Stop using Beltre as the basis for anything.   Nothing about his performance since then can be compared to any other player in MLB if for no other reason because Adrian Beltre has a medically cleared reason to use testosterone due to the injury to his balls.  He is for all intents and purposes the only MLB legally using steroids to avoid age related decline.  

Your comment about his doing 2/3 of what he did last year is based on HR totals and nothing else.   Because at that level of performance he'd be a 80-85 OPS+ player -- basically the 2017 version of Albert Pujols.    

[eaterfan]

17 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Stop using Beltre as the basis for anything.   Nothing about his performance since then can be compared to any other player in MLB if for no other reason because Adriab Beltre has a medically cleared reason to use testosterone due to the injury to his balls.  He is for all intents and purposes the only MLB legally using steroids to avoid age related decline.  

Your comment about his doing 2/3 of what he did last year is based on HR totals and nothing else.   Because at that level of performance he'd be a 80-85 OPS+ player -- basically the 2017 version of Albert Pujols.    

Pujols made $26 million last year. His total contract from 2017 on is $130 million for 5 years. Think of what a steal Moustakas would be for 5 years and $85 million if we get Pujols like production from him!

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, eaterfan said:

Pujols made $26 million last year. His total contract from 2017 on is $130 million for 5 years. Think of what a steal Moustakas would be for 5 years and $85 million if we get Pujols like production from him!

Ouch. Those will be some expensive double plays.

[Erstad Grit]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Stop using Beltre as the basis for anything.   Nothing about his performance since then can be compared to any other player in MLB if for no other reason because Adrian Beltre has a medically cleared reason to use testosterone due to the injury to his balls.  He is for all intents and purposes the only MLB legally using steroids to avoid age related decline.  

Your comment about his doing 2/3 of what he did last year is based on HR totals and nothing else.   Because at that level of performance he'd be a 80-85 OPS+ player -- basically the 2017 version of Albert Pujols.    

Whatever man.

I didn't want Hamilton or Pujols and was told to stop whining and it wasn't my money. 

3B has been a glaring hole for a while (Figgins was great but not a typical power hitting 3B), and a 29 year old star who hit 38 bombs is available and suddenly money now matters?

I'm not sating Moose = Beltre. I'm saying most here didn't want Beltre for similar reasons. I think Moose can easily be a Justin Turner type 3B for the next 5 years and if we can get that for 85 million I find it hard to listen to reasons why it's a bad idea. 

[UndertheHalo]

39 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Whatever man.

I didn't want Hamilton or Pujols and was told to stop whining and it wasn't my money. 

3B has been a glaring hole for a while (Figgins was great but not a typical power hitting 3B), and a 29 year old star who hit 38 bombs is available and suddenly money now matters?

I'm not sating Moose = Beltre. I'm saying most here didn't want Beltre for similar reasons. I think Moose can easily be a Justin Turner type 3B for the next 5 years and if we can get that for 85 million I find it hard to listen to reasons why it's a bad idea. 

I mean this would be nice, but what makes you think he’s going to morph into Justin Turner ? I don’t see many similarities. 

I wouldn’t be crushed if we got the Moose, but if I was calling the shots, I’d pass 

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

Whatever man.

I didn't want Hamilton or Pujols and was told to stop whining and it wasn't my money. 

3B has been a glaring hole for a while (Figgins was great but not a typical power hitting 3B), and a 29 year old star who hit 38 bombs is available and suddenly money now matters?

I'm not sating Moose = Beltre. I'm saying most here didn't want Beltre for similar reasons. I think Moose can easily be a Justin Turner type 3B for the next 5 years and if we can get that for 85 million I find it hard to listen to reasons why it's a bad idea. 

You have every right to want who you want for whatever reasons you want. 

I think Moustakas would be a disaster. But I could be wrong. I don't think his bat will play well in Anaheim, like many other lefties with empty power before him.

[Kendo36]

I would give Moose 5 yrs $85M. Young power lefty who plays great defense. Angels would have locked up some of the best two-way players in baseball. 

[tdawg87]

Sigh

[Glen]

Great defense!

[bloodbrother]

Seriously, what's with the great defense rep for Moose?

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

Seriously, what's with the great defense rep for Moose?

I literally have no idea. It's like a meme that just...appeared.

[SoWhat]

I don’t understand why everyone wants to throw big money at Moustakas when we have practically the same player in Valbuena.

 

Mind boggling 

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

I don’t understand why everyone wants to throw big money at Moustakas when we have practically the same player in Valbuena.

 

Mind boggling 

I've already said this like 5 times but no one cares. Everyone has a hot stove boner. 

[ettin]

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I've already said this like 5 times but no one cares. Everyone has a hot stove boner. 

You've unlocked the puzzle tdawg, from now on when anyone argues incessantly without reason we will call it a "boner burn".

[tdawg87]

Here's another reason Moustakas sucks: .214 career average in AL West parks. 

Moustakes is a Dipoto move. Never go full Dipoto.

[totdprods]

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Here's another reason Moustakas sucks: .214 career average in AL West parks. 

Moustakes is a Dipoto move. Never go full Dipoto.

I've been very vocal about my disinterest in Moustakas, but some of the arguments against him are getting a little generalized based on career numbers, which isn't totally completely fair given that his last three seasons have been a significant step up from his earlier years, and they happened at an age where a step forward is expected.

Moustakas in his last three years, age 26-28, is slashing .275/.329/.496/.824 with 117 OPS+ and four years prior, age 22-25, slashed .236/.290/.379/.668 with an OPS+ of 82. I do think it is safe to say he is closer now to the player he's shown in the last three years rather than his career numbers indicate.

In AL West ballparks, his OPS the last three seasons is .791 - I will mention that '15 and '16 were both right at .698, and '17 was .977, so two of the three were pedestrian. 

His 3-year slash in AL West ballparks is .251/.302/.489/.791 and his 3-year slash in Angel Stadium is a hefty .305/.430/.516/.946. Sample size warnings abound of course.

~4/$60m is still my max.

[tdawg87]

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Sample size warnings abound of course

Yes 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Sample size warnings abound of course.

58 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Yes 

Still, the fact that his AL West ballpark production has ticked up during the same time his overall production has ticked up does reinforce the idea that he's turned the corner developmentally and could be closer to the player he's been recently rather than what his career numbers state. 

Better than his numbers going the other way.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I've been very vocal about my disinterest in Moustakas, but some of the arguments against him are getting a little generalized based on career numbers, which isn't totally completely fair given that his last three seasons have been a significant step up from his earlier years, and they happened at an age where a step forward is expected.

Moustakas in his last three years, age 26-28, is slashing .275/.329/.496/.824 with 117 OPS+ and four years prior, age 22-25, slashed .236/.290/.379/.668 with an OPS+ of 82. I do think it is safe to say he is closer now to the player he's shown in the last three years rather than his career numbers indicate.

In AL West ballparks, his OPS the last three seasons is .791 - I will mention that '15 and '16 were both right at .698, and '17 was .977, so two of the three were pedestrian. 

His 3-year slash in AL West ballparks is .251/.302/.489/.791 and his 3-year slash in Angel Stadium is a hefty .305/.430/.516/.946. Sample size warnings abound of course.

~4/$60m is still my max.

FWIW -- my Moustakas/Valbuena comps used three year samples -- only, I went back further in order to actually get three full seasons worth of at bats and not the 27 game season (2016), you are choosing to use.  IMO, using a three year sample that amounts to two full seasons worth of at bats including one where everyone including MLB has admitted the balls were juiced makes for a questionable sample.   

Regardless -- he's not a garbage player and he's definitely been better in recent years .... unfortunately he's failed to improve on his biggest weakness as a hitter and IMO that's hard to disregard.  His 5.7% walk rate this year was the worst of his career as was his chase rate.   His O-contact rate was down for the fourth straight season (2nd worst ever).  His Swinging Strike% has likewise been trending up and is now at 10.5% -- the second highest figure in his career.  So, at an age when you'd expect his plate discipline to be improving he's actually getting worse.  I don't believe the guy is a huge threat to completely crater, but I think he's a poor bet to repeat his 2017 and he's not far enough removed his his sub .700 OPS seasons to completely disregard them IMO...

Its not even that I think the guy would be massively overpaid at 15 mil a year, it's more a case of my honestly believing there are better value hitters available who would be just as likely to help the Angels without taking up the same amount of payroll.  

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

FWIW -- my Moustakas/Valbuena comps used three year samples -- only, I went back further in order to actually get three full seasons worth of at bats and not the 27 game season (2016), you are choosing to use.  IMO, using a three year sample that amounts to two full seasons worth of at bats including one where everyone including MLB has admitted the balls were juiced makes for a questionable sample.   

Regardless -- he's not a garbage player and he's definitely been better in recent years .... unfortunately he's failed to improve on his biggest weakness as a hitter and IMO that's hard to disregard.  His 5.7% walk rate this year was the worst of his career as was his chase rate.   His O-contact rate was down for the fourth straight season (2nd worst ever).  His Swinging Strike% has likewise been trending up and is now at 10.5% -- the second highest figure in his career.  So, at an age when you'd expect his plate discipline to be improving he's actually getting worse.  I don't believe the guy is a huge threat to completely crater, but I think he's a poor bet to repeat his 2017 and he's not far enough removed his his sub .700 OPS seasons to completely disregard them IMO...

Its not even that I think the guy would be massively overpaid at 15 mil a year, it's more a case of my honestly believing there are better value hitters available who would be just as likely to help the Angels without taking up the same amount of payroll.  

I've actually posted a couple times where I've used his last three full seasons, and this was the one time I didn't and I got caught, haha. He did manage to play most of the AL West parks in his injury-shortened year though, so those particular 3-year slashes still apply.

Mostly, I think he's having more success hitting the ball out of the park and it's coming at an age where that should be developing, and as a result, he's swinging for the fences more. It's boosting his value and numbers in that regard, but being that dependent on that skill at a ballpark like Angel Stadium is troubling. Feels closer to a Vernon Wells scenario.

I do think he has turned a corner but I am very skeptical that he will be worth his contract and fully agree that you can find comparable production at a much better price. I've been pushing Asdrubal Cabrera as an example of that.