MLB Trade Rumors: Top 50 FAs with Predictions

[Angel Oracle]

On 11/3/2017 at 5:13 PM, totdprods said:

It is pretty crazy that all of those names and terms come out to $69m in annual commitment. 

$59 million actually, which is still more than Arte will spend after keeping Upton.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 11/2/2017 at 12:43 PM, totdprods said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

They have the Angels signing Yonder Alonso for a 2/$22m, that's all.

how does a player that's never hit more than 9 HR in 7 season suddenly hit 28 in his next season?

[totdprods]

5 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

how does a player that's never hit more than 9 HR in 7 season suddenly hit 28 in his next season?

Justin Turner never hit more than 7 HR until his age 30 season, when he hit 16. Has hit 27 and 21 in the two seasons since. Daniel Murphy suddenly became a 20+ HR hitter at age 31 after averaging 9 a season beforehand. 

Sometimes it just happens, sometimes it's a fluke. 

It Eppler is interested, I would think it's more because of his consistency, high OBP, and low K numbers, and if his power truly has turned a corner, then it's just a bonus.

[DMVol]

4 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

how does a player that's never hit more than 9 HR in 7 season suddenly hit 28 in his next season?

 

41 minutes ago, totdprods said:

...Sometimes it just happens, sometimes it's a fluke. 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, DMVol said:

 

Yup, or steroids.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Justin Turner never hit more than 7 HR until his age 30 season, when he hit 16. Has hit 27 and 21 in the two seasons since. Daniel Murphy suddenly became a 20+ HR hitter at age 31 after averaging 9 a season beforehand. 

Sometimes it just happens, sometimes it's a fluke. 

It Eppler is interested, I would think it's more because of his consistency, high OBP, and low K numbers, and if his power truly has turned a corner, then it's just a bonus.

In some cases, it's clearly steroids. Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista....

In some cases, it's an adjustment in approach. Murphy was always a good hitter, then he turned into a very good hitter. Turner bounced between organizations because teams believed he could develop. The fact that it happened in LA is happenstance.

I think there are a few players that could breakout in a similar way. Jurickson Profar, Neil Walker, Jason Kipnis to name a few.

[aznhockeyguy]

The Yonder Alonzo signing doesn't make any sense to me.  If they wanted to sign a player of that type, I would rather they sign Mitch Moreland, who put up comparable numbers and would be cheaper to sign.  I wouldn't sign Walker to 2 years 20mil as the article suggests, but with not much else out there for 2B I guess the Angels should do it.  SP targets I would go after if I was GM;  Jaime Garcia and Miguel Gonzalez.  Jaime Garcia - 2 years 16 mil and Miguel Gonzalez - 1 year incentive laden 7 mil; are medium-risk signings for the Angels; as you can never have too much pitching and have a pretty good shot at overproducing the contract they are given with the high level defense the Angels have.  I wouldn't break the bank for most of these free agents.  Some of the prices for the relievers are getting ridiculous. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Should Kaleb be given the Utility IF job in 2018? He can play all the positions and has a solid glove. He hasn't proven he can hit ML pitching on a consistent basis but has above average defensive skills. If not they should try and trade him because he has done all he can in the minors.

[totdprods]

5 hours ago, aznhockeyguy said:

The Yonder Alonzo signing doesn't make any sense to me.  If they wanted to sign a player of that type, I would rather they sign Mitch Moreland, who put up comparable numbers and would be cheaper to sign.  I wouldn't sign Walker to 2 years 20mil as the article suggests, but with not much else out there for 2B I guess the Angels should do it.  SP targets I would go after if I was GM;  Jaime Garcia and Miguel Gonzalez.  Jaime Garcia - 2 years 16 mil and Miguel Gonzalez - 1 year incentive laden 7 mil; are medium-risk signings for the Angels; as you can never have too much pitching and have a pretty good shot at overproducing the contract they are given with the high level defense the Angels have.  I wouldn't break the bank for most of these free agents.  Some of the prices for the relievers are getting ridiculous. 

Moreland's offensive numbers have benefited from playing in Boston and Texas - he's a .248/.305/.435/.739 hitter away from those parks with a below average OPS+ of 95. I'm not wholly against him because he does hit left-handed, plays good 1B defense, and can drop in at CIF/COF if needed, but he seems like the unlikeliest of the  FA 1B to exceed Cron's production. I can see a fit because of his versatility, but I'd place him as more of a Valbuena-type, someone who isn't good enough to start everyday but a really good guy to have on your bench who can fill in if injury strikes. There'd have to be at least a player or two of greater magnitude brought in elsewhere.

I do like Garcia and Gonzales both though, and think they both represent the type of SP Eppler's going to be looking at. Garcia would be nice as he'd bring another lefty into the fold should we weigh offers on Heaney/Skaggs in a 2B/3B trade, and Gonzales could fill the Jesse Chavez did last year. Always been a fan of him since that game where he shut us out wearing Adenhart's glove. Not to bring emotion into decision-making, but I think he'd have a good season in Anaheim. 

[Inside Pitch]

6 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Should Kaleb be given the Utility IF job in 2018? He can play all the positions and has a solid glove. He hasn't proven he can hit ML pitching on a consistent basis but has above average defensive skills. If not they should try and trade him because he has done all he can in the minors.

I think if they are ever going to use him, they may as well try using him in that capacity...    If they go after a guy like Neil Walker or run Valbuena out there at 3B then a guy like Cowart with a glove like his should be in line for a lot of late inning work and potentially at bats..

[Stradling]

Jim Duquette has his list of top 25 free agents and his prediction of where they will end up.  You’ll all be happy to know none of them will be Angels.  He predicts both Mous and Hosmer returning to the Royals.  He has Santana going to the Rays.  Darvish to the Mariners, JD Martinez and Cain to the Giants.  

[Troll Daddy]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Jim Duquette has his list of top 25 free agents and his prediction of where they will end up.  You’ll all be happy to know none of them will be Angels.  He predicts both Mous and Hosmer returning to the Royals.  He has Santana going to the Rays.  Darvish to the Mariners, JD Martinez and Cain to the Giants.  

Why should the fans be happy about not signing a Top 25 free agent?

 

[ettin]

On 11/5/2017 at 7:38 AM, Scotty@AW said:

In some cases, it's clearly steroids. Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista....

In some cases, it's an adjustment in approach. Murphy was always a good hitter, then he turned into a very good hitter. Turner bounced between organizations because teams believed he could develop. The fact that it happened in LA is happenstance.

I think there are a few players that could breakout in a similar way. Jurickson Profar, Neil Walker, Jason Kipnis to name a few.

If Yandy Diaz figures out how to put the ball in the air more he is definitely in this category.

[Stradling]

57 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Why should the fans be happy about not signing a Top 25 free agent?

 

Because none of us can agree on who has value or if they’ll be overpaid or if the money could be used better on someone else.  

[Troll Daddy]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Because none of us can agree on who has value or if they’ll be overpaid or if the money could be used better on someone else.  

Put your trust in the Lord (Eppler) and he will take the team to greener pastures. 

[Inside Pitch]

35 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Put your trust in the Lord (Eppler) and he will take the team to greener pastures. 

Seeing what he can do with some money is really the last thing Eppler has to prove still.  Eppler's been pretty good about persuing the sort of player and the skill sets he claims to put a premium on...  So... FWIW, I'm more likely to trust what he does than the guy who said one thing did the other.

He's been said to have attempted to trade for Neil Walker in the past -- going to be interesting to see if he tries to sign him as a FA.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

Jim Duquette has his list of top 25 free agents and his prediction of where they will end up.  You’ll all be happy to know none of them will be Angels.  He predicts both Mous and Hosmer returning to the Royals.  He has Santana going to the Rays.  Darvish to the Mariners, JD Martinez and Cain to the Giants.  

Royals are finding some extra money?    It would be unusual for them to give out two big contracts at once.

I can see the Giants spending big on Martinez and Cain, some of their AAV salary has been removed.

Darvish would continue the Japanese connection in Seattle.    Why would Carlos Santana go to an org that doesn't spend money?

[ukyah]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

Jim Duquette has his list of top 25 free agents and his prediction of where they will end up.  You’ll all be happy to know none of them will be Angels.  He predicts both Mous and Hosmer returning to the Royals.  He has Santana going to the Rays.  Darvish to the Mariners, JD Martinez and Cain to the Giants.  

 

2 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Why should the fans be happy about not signing a Top 25 free agent?

 

 

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Because none of us can agree on who has value or if they’ll be overpaid or if the money could be used better on someone else.  

 

i would have gone with the more applicable answer, which is that jim duquette, yet again,  has his head up his ass.

 

...but that's just me.

[totdprods]

Destinations aren't predicted, but this is another good article predicting terms and contracts. Jon Heyman and an anonymous 'expert' (who apparently has a good streak in tact vs. Jon) spar with contract amounts:
https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-how-much-will-the-top-80-free-agents-get/

Amazingly, out of 80 players, Yusmeiro Petit is still nowhere to be found. Even Bud Norris (#71, 1/$5m) and Ricky Nolasco (#73, 1/$5m) crept in. 


All of these players, at these rates, are a definite no for me:
Eric Hosmer: 7 years, $160-$165m
J.D. Martinez: 6 years, $150-162m
Yu Darvish: 6 years, $144-155m
Jake Arrieta: 5 years, $125-140m
Mike Moustakas: 5 years, $80-92m

I'd be interested in the following on the lower amounts:
Alex Cobb: 4 years, $58m to 5 years, $75m.
Lance Lynn: 4 years, $56m to 5 years, $75m
Mike Minor: 3 years, $24m to 4 years, $32m
Jaime Garcia: 2 years, $18m to 3 years, $25m
Bryan Shaw: 2 years, $12m to 3 years, $24m

I'd take any of these for the price listed:
Carlos Santana: 3 years, $38-48m
Addison Reed: 3 years, $27m to 4 years, $35m
Tyler Chatwood: 2 years, $25m to 3 years, $24m
Neil Walker: 2 years, $21-22m
CC Sabathia: 1 year, $14/$15m
Eduardo Nunez: 2 years, $14-15m
Jarrod Dyson: 2 years, $14-15m
Yonder Alonso: 2 years, $12-$15m
Jake McGee: 2 years, $12-15m
Alex Avila: 2 years, $11-12m
Michael Pineda: 1 year, $4m to 2 years, $14m
Jeremy Hellickson: 1 year, $8-10m
Chris Tillman: 1 year, $7-8m

Eppler really could build a nice little ball club filling out needs from the cheaper tier of FAs without shedding much in form of prospects or tying up payroll much at all.
 

[Angelsfan1984]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Destinations aren't predicted, but this is another good article predicting terms and contracts. Jon Heyman and an anonymous 'expert' (who apparently has a good streak in tact vs. Jon) spar with contract amounts:
https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-how-much-will-the-top-80-free-agents-get/

Amazingly, out of 80 players, Yusmeiro Petit is still nowhere to be found. Even Bud Norris (#71, 1/$5m) and Ricky Nolasco (#73, 1/$5m) crept in. 


All of these players, at these rates, are a definite no for me:
Eric Hosmer: 7 years, $160-$165m
J.D. Martinez: 6 years, $150-162m
Yu Darvish: 6 years, $144-155m
Jake Arrieta: 5 years, $125-140m
Mike Moustakas: 5 years, $80-92m

I'd be interested in the following on the lower amounts:
Alex Cobb: 4 years, $58m to 5 years, $75m.
Lance Lynn: 4 years, $56m to 5 years, $75m
Mike Minor: 3 years, $24m to 4 years, $32m
Jaime Garcia: 2 years, $18m to 3 years, $25m
Bryan Shaw: 2 years, $12m to 3 years, $24m

I'd take any of these for the price listed:
Carlos Santana: 3 years, $38-48m
Addison Reed: 3 years, $27m to 4 years, $35m
Tyler Chatwood: 2 years, $25m to 3 years, $24m
Neil Walker: 2 years, $21-22m
CC Sabathia: 1 year, $14/$15m
Eduardo Nunez: 2 years, $14-15m
Jarrod Dyson: 2 years, $14-15m
Yonder Alonso: 2 years, $12-$15m
Jake McGee: 2 years, $12-15m
Alex Avila: 2 years, $11-12m
Michael Pineda: 1 year, $4m to 2 years, $14m
Jeremy Hellickson: 1 year, $8-10m
Chris Tillman: 1 year, $7-8m

Eppler really could build a nice little ball club filling out needs from the cheaper tier of FAs without shedding much in form of prospects or tying up payroll much at all.
 

Alex Cobb: 4 years, $58m to 5 years, $75m.
Lance Lynn: 4 years, $56m to 5 years, $75m

Where do I sign up for both? Trade for Hernandez and sign Nunez to play 3rd. Call it an offseason

[Stradling]

That Moustakas deal might even be less if he wants to play close to home.  I don’t know what amount makes sense for the Angels to sign him.  Would you be interested if he comes in for 4 years and $64 million?  

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

That Moustakas deal might even be less if he wants to play close to home.  I don’t know what amount makes sense for the Angels to sign him.  Would you be interested if he comes in for 4 years and $64 million?  

~4/$60m has been my max for him, so yes, definitely. I still think comparable production could be had for far less, but sometimes you roll the dice and if he truly is about to enter a peak where he's a regular .260/.330/.460 type guy with solid defense I'm all for taking the risk. 

[Angelsfan1984]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

That Moustakas deal might even be less if he wants to play close to home.  I don’t know what amount makes sense for the Angels to sign him.  Would you be interested if he comes in for 4 years and $64 million?  

Id take him up to 4 years 75, after that you might as well give that to a pitcher.

[Dtwncbad]

I am suddenly pining for Cobb or Lynn at the right price, creating tons of depth in starting pitching, freeing up bodies like Shoemaker or Tropeano to trade for a 2B.

[Blarg]

Ty Cobb and Fred Lynn in their prime would be great pick ups.