The Official 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

[Blarg]

And that right there is why Boston should pull the offer and tell him their next conversation will be a four year offer. 

Greedy dumbass. 

Edited February 7, 2018 by Blarg

[Docwaukee]

24 minutes ago, Blarg said:

And that right there is why Boston should pull the offer and tell him their next conversation will be a four year offer. 

Greedy dumbass. 

agree.  

I can't imagine him signing with Boston now.  

We need to have Darvish get his 5/135.  Then Cobb and Lynn will sign.  Then only Borass clients will be left at the top of the market.  

The more I think about this, the more it makes me think that Boras corp has an ulterior motive to create dissent in regard to the CBA and teams selling off all their parts and tanking.  He knows what these teams are pulling in which means his players know.  Of course they can't come out and say it because that's privileged info.  He's using his control over a large free agent class to make a point and he's rallying the troops.  Yes, his clients could tell him they want to sign, but I am sure he's a damn good salesman and has convinced them to follow his lead because it will be better for the game long term.  

[VariousCrap]

6 hours ago, floplag said:

You are correct, many of the better teams now went through that process, but i also think there are some fairly clear examples of teams that simply will not spend, even though they could, under revenue sharing.  The A's abused it so much they are being phased out of it for example.   The path isnt the problem, the habitual abuse of it is.  

I also think your Dodger reference is very relevant, over spending guarantees nothing.   

From a competitive standpoint , every division but the AL E has a clear and definitive favorite as well.   Most of the teams making noise this off season, or trying to make noise, such as the Angels, Brewers, Twins, are doing so to play catch up and make a probable run at a wild card more realistically than a division title. 

This market though is insane, as ive said many times.  There are no legit superstars in it, none.  Yet they are all expecting to get paid for it since they are the best available.  You dont pay mercedes money for a volkswagon simply because mercedes isn't available, you wait till it is. 

The agents, especially Boras, dont give a flying fuck about the game, nor frankly does the MLBPA in my opinion, they are only concerned with one thing, max salaries, no other consideration matters to them. 

The end result is a perfect storm where none of these guys asking prices makes any sense to almost anyone.   Why pay 7/200 to Darvish as the Angels or Brewers, does it make you better than the Astros or Cubs if you do?  Does it significantly change your projected outcome in any way?   Does not re-signing him affect the Dodgers projections? 

This is a mess, but its noone fault, its just the culmination of numerous factors hitting at the same time with a monster crop of FA or the horizon next off season. 

 

Well said.

[VariousCrap]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

There may be no super stars but JD Martinez is a helluva offensive player.  He hit 45 homers last year in Detroit and Arizona.  He played well down the stretch in a playoff push.  He had 60 homers combined the previous two years and he is entering his 30 year old season.  He may not be a super star but he is a $20-25 million a year player for 5-6 years.  

 

He had a career year offensively last year.  You are completely ignoring his defensive numbers which have shown decline the last couple of years.  Within 2-3 years, he will be a full time DH due to his being a liability in the OF.  You don't invest that type of money in that type of player.

[VariousCrap]

1 hour ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-hope-to-sign-slugger-jd-martinez/c-266029546

Ken Rosenthal says Boston has offered him 5 yrs/$125M and Martinez said he will sit out ST until he gets what he wants. And they blame the owners for the slow off season.

 

Didn't Hamilton, a former MVP winner, get 5/125 from the Angels?  Martinez shouldn't get a penny more than that.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 minute ago, VariousCrap said:

 

Didn't Hamilton, a former MVP winner, get 5/125 from the Angels?  Martinez shouldn't get a penny more than that.

Apparently he wants 7yr/$210M.

Martinez reportedly has a five-year contract offer from the Boston Red Sox on the table, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. ... According to Nightengale, "The Red Sox won't give Martinez a seven-year, $210 million contract and aren't about to start bidding against themselves."

[Stradling]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

Oh, I was speaking in generalities, I don’t mean the Angels.  He isn’t a fit for us because he isn’t great defensively and we have two DHs.  

 

13 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

He had a career year offensively last year.  You are completely ignoring his defensive numbers which have shown decline the last couple of years.  Within 2-3 years, he will be a full time DH due to his being a liability in the OF.  You don't invest that type of money in that type of player.

No I’m not

[VariousCrap]

54 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

agree.  

I can't imagine him signing with Boston now.  

We need to have Darvish get his 5/135.  Then Cobb and Lynn will sign.  Then only Borass clients will be left at the top of the market.  

The more I think about this, the more it makes me think that Boras corp has an ulterior motive to create dissent in regard to the CBA and teams selling off all their parts and tanking.  He knows what these teams are pulling in which means his players know.  Of course they can't come out and say it because that's privileged info.  He's using his control over a large free agent class to make a point and he's rallying the troops.  Yes, his clients could tell him they want to sign, but I am sure he's a damn good salesman and has convinced them to follow his lead because it will be better for the game long term.  

 

This is a game Borass has played for years now.  Wasn't he Kendrys Morales's agent when Morales didn't end up signing until during the season?  Owners should call his bluff.  Can you imagine the season starting with a bunch of his clients still unsigned?

[VariousCrap]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

No I’m not

 

I missed that post. 

[VariousCrap]

4 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Apparently he wants 7yr/$210M.

Martinez reportedly has a five-year contract offer from the Boston Red Sox on the table, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. ... According to Nightengale, "The Red Sox won't give Martinez a seven-year, $210 million contract and aren't about to start bidding against themselves."

 

I hope the Red Sox stay firm.  If I was them, I'd tell him that offer is good until a certain date and after that, it is off the table.  Nobody is going to offer him more than that.  

[VariousCrap]

6 hours ago, Kevinb said:

So all the owners at the same exact time got smart and are not offering long term high priced contracts to players over 30? Ya right. This screams collusion. Whether they can prove it is another thing. I wonder if spring training will happen..... should be a fun time. 

You are 100% wrong.  This is something that anyone with eyes could see coming.  GMs and owners are using analytics to make decisions more than they ever had in the past.  You also have the "Pujols/Kemp Complex" that has demonstrated to teams how dangerous it is give guys going into their 30's huge money/long deal contracts.  Add all that to the fact that none of the free agents this season are elite players and you can understand why this is all happening.

[Stradling]

If anyone who has eyes could have predicted this then why are there numerous projections out there at the beginning of the offseason predicting $160 million for this player or that player?  

[VariousCrap]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

If anyone who has eyes could have predicted this then why are there numerous projections out there at the beginning of the offseason predicting $160 million for this player or that player?  

I think everyone knew this was coming, they didn't know what off-season it would occur.  It just happened to come together this year.  Which makes sense due to this being a weaker free agent group.

Someone else made a comment like this earlier in the thread and it is 100% true:  You don't spend BMW money on a Ford just because that Ford is the best available car for sale.

 

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

23 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

You are 100% wrong.  This is something that anyone with eyes could see coming.  GMs and owners are using analytics to make decisions more than they ever had in the past.  You also have the "Pujols/Kemp Complex" that has demonstrated to teams how dangerous it is give guys going into their 30's huge money/long deal contracts.  Add all that to the fact that none of the free agents this season are elite players and you can understand why this is all happening.

Agree. The owners (which arent all morenos, many are owned by various people) are in it to make a profit. (Which is their right). The last several years, the old way of doing business (the anti-stat nerd crowd) has gone away, and economic doctorate degree types have uncovered what makes long term forecasting of value far more effective than it used to be.

Wasnt it back in like 2012 we heard st louis had guys headhunted from NASA to work for them? The rest may not have gone to that extreme, but they sure as hell watched and learned.

What were seeing now is a combo of that, the lack of bonafide stud FAs, and a far better class next year creating this situation.

[UndertheHalo]

I honestly don’t think that next year is gonna be a lot different.  Harper and Machado are going to get paid.  Otherwise I think it’s going to be pretty much the same. 

[IheartLA]

The more this drags out the less I see the situation changing next year, the year after that, or really anytime till the next CBA. The data teams are getting isn't changing, their ability to analyze it is getting better, the problem is the system. There is no incentive for teams to spend more with the current rules being what they are. They aren't going to wake up tomorrow and start signing 30+ year olds like they did in the past. 

To me it's like the manufacturing jobs the midwest lost, they aren't coming back no matter what. Companies can go anywhere in the world for slave wages, the only way they will come back is if the marginal value = cost. Same thing for the teams, there are too many players that are young and due to the system be paid nothing for good production. The Yankees would rather have Andujar/Torres for the minimum over Frazier/Moustakas/Castro. Even if they made $5M that's 10 times what the rookies would make. 

The luxury tax and revenue sharing was supposed to the exact opposite of what's it's doing now. All thirty teams were supposed to be able to compete, spend, and have some hope every year. Instead we now have a cap on the teams that do want to spend and owners have a bullet proof investment sure to generate tremendous cash flow for years to come. Instead of 30 teams bidding, we have 10. This is a squeeze on everybody. 

[m0nkey]

So again, it’s the player, JD Martinez, holding things up and not boras 

[Angel Oracle]

You two are a total joke, Bora$$ and Martinez.

[Chuck]

Source confirms: A separate training camp for unsigned free agents “will happen.” Union not sure how many players will attend, but plan to make a facility available in Florida or Arizona. First reported: @TBrownYahoo.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 8, 2018

[Chuck]

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that free agent slugger J.D. Martinez is discussing short-team and long-term offers with the Diamondbacks.

Nightengale doesn't discuss what exactly a short-term or long-term deal could look like, but it's interesting news, especially after the report yesterday of Martinez's frustrations and their negotiating process. Martinez finished his 2017 campaign with the Diamondbacks, crushing National League pitching to the tune of a 1.107 OPS in 62 games and finishing with 53 homers with the Diamondbacks and Tigers. We'll have to see what kind of numbers are being discussed, but based on what we saw last season, he's comfortable hitting in those confines and would be a tremendous resigning for Arizona.

Related: Red Sox

 

Source: Bob Nightengale on Twitter

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

If anyone who has eyes could have predicted this then why are there numerous projections out there at the beginning of the offseason predicting $160 million for this player or that player?  

i wonder where some of those projections comes from, i highly doubt its the clubs so its probably agents, and its usually inflated.  

The Agents missed the boat this off season IMO, this isnt business as usual.  A less than stellar crop, a smaller number of clubs that makes sense, even fewer of them spending, this should have been predicated as a down market but for some reason they projected them increasing following historical patterns.  

Theres a lot of stuff still in the air, but i dont see the clubs blinking at this point.  Part of me hopes they dont, let these guys go into spring without jobs, stop the nonsense . 

[floplag]

I think the Twins are rapidly becoming a candidate to blink.  If they feel they have a real shot at the post again, they may give Darvish more than their previous offers with Santana going down. 

[kevinb]

2 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

You are 100% wrong.  This is something that anyone with eyes could see coming.  GMs and owners are using analytics to make decisions more than they ever had in the past.  You also have the "Pujols/Kemp Complex" that has demonstrated to teams how dangerous it is give guys going into their 30's huge money/long deal contracts.  Add all that to the fact that none of the free agents this season are elite players and you can understand why this is all happening.

Pujols happened what 5 years ago. Other people have gotten huge deals since him. The owners didn’t just all become smart this offseason. They are talking to each other whether u think it or not. Fuck Cano got how much how 3 years ago? Owners are generally dumb when it comes to free agency. You’re saying this off-season they all became smart and didn’t pay anyone a significant amount of money. Simple inflation would say that people continue to make more money especially with incomes for Baseball and live rights going up. All these teams trying to “tank” seems more nba related but at least with the nba there’s a floor that’s at I think 85% or 90% the cap. Baseball is going to get really weird and I think that’s going to be fun to watch. Curious what happens with spring training. What happens during the season if the players just call it and stick together. I hate unions and this union is stronger than any in professional sports. Should get really interesting. 

[kevinb]

Also AO and people stop blaming the agents. You’re out of your mind if you think it’s on just the agents for wanting the most money. Think about this in terms of real estate. You’ve all I presume have dealt with real estate agents before. There are good ones and bad ones. But even the bad ones or obnoxious ones legally have to show their client the offer and it’s on the client to say yes or no to the offer that is in front of them the agent is just trying to do right by them and get them the most money for their house they possibly can so when the next guy sells their house they can say hey I just sold this house at such and such a price. Sign with me. Agents aren’t evil. We are all greedy in some way.

Look at the owners of these clubs ,they are pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars. And yet they are supposed to be the good guys?

[Ohtaniland]

If there’s so much MLB revenue available to owners and players with all of their tv contracts, licensed merchandise, product advertising why don’t they all as a league sacrifice together and give the fans a drastic reduction in ticket pricing. Record profits right?

They have owners meetings each and every offseason that probably include discussions on how to keep the money train rolling at the expense of the fans.