The Official 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

[gotbeer]

42 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That actually may be correct. The penalty escalates for each year you go over and they've certainly been over, in some years way way over, for awhile.

Its just slow for a number of reasons. Boras has most of the top guys, the top guys generally set the market, and Boras loves waiting it out because ultimately he still gets what he wants most of the time.

Problem is the big spenders aren't spending - Yankees and Dogs want to get under, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, Nationals don't want to go over, Illich is dead, Astros don't need to...couple that with half of the orgs opting to 'tank' and he's trying to make a bidding war that isn't going to happen. 

 

@Tank  Yup.  Doggies paid $36.2 million.  The tax threshold for 2017 was $195 million and they were at $253.6 million.  I think if they went over this year, it was the start of the 92% range.  As is, they about paid 61.7%.

https://www.truebluela.com/2017/12/20/16799688/dodgers-luxury-tax-bill-2017-payroll

[Docwaukee]

To me, the biggest obstacle at this point is that most of the top tier teams aren't looking to spend big money.  

Dogs, Yanks, Cleveland, Houston, Angels are likely out on any big name free agents.  Det, CWS, CIN aren't gonna pony up.  There are a bunch of teams who can't afford nor do they need any of the Boras clients.  So who's left?

Boston?  Why would they bid against themselves for JD Martinez.  Would a few other teams spend if the deal was right?  Sure but no contender needs Hosmer.  STL might like to have him, but they're actually in decent shape otherwise.  

So it boils down to the second tier teams putting in offers on these guys but the players want to win.  So it's slowing everything down. 

The other thing to consider is that a lot of teams have likely strategized their resources over the last few years in order to potentially take advantage of next year.  Certainly, the dogs, yanks, etc have.  

[Angelsfan1984]

At the end of the day if the Angels can swoop in and grab Hosmer for around 12-15 mil per I'd get a chubby.

[ettin]

3 hours ago, Tank said:

what are the penalties for going over the threshold? one of my co-workers is a dodger fan and said they're looking at being nailed for over $100 mil in fines if they go over. i don't want to argue with her, but i know her numbers are way off.

 

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

That actually may be correct. The penalty escalates for each year you go over and they've certainly been over, in some years way way over, for awhile.

Its just slow for a number of reasons. Boras has most of the top guys, the top guys generally set the market, and Boras loves waiting it out because ultimately he still gets what he wants most of the time.

Problem is the big spenders aren't spending - Yankees and Dogs want to get under, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, Nationals don't want to go over, Illich is dead, Astros don't need to...couple that with half of the orgs opting to 'tank' and he's trying to make a bidding war that isn't going to happen. 

 

Thankfully we have our handy-dandy Primer Series to help answer this very important question: http://thesportsdaily.com/angels-win/angelswin-com-2018-primer-series-final-thoughts/

There is a table that shows the penalty boxes, particularly the severe ones for a potential third-time offender like the Dodgers.

[Troll Daddy]

Angels aren’t doing any more swooping this season imo. The big FA’s will get their money. 

I’m still holding out for a utility outfielder not named Young. More pitching would be nice but I don’t see them signing anyone significant. 

[Troll Daddy]

Mookie Betts beats the Red Sox for $3M in arbitration over their offer NICE 

[nando714]

22 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Mookie Betts beats the Red Sox for $3M in arbitration over their offer NICE 

Good for him. 

[HaloNArizona]

MLB Network thinks things are slow because teams are shying away from the long term $150+ Million deals.  Not enough return on the investment.  I think the four to five year deals in the range of 90-100 million might work...Look at Lorenzo Cain's deal...

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 1/30/2018 at 12:48 PM, gotbeer said:

@Biergott @Angel Oracle  Do you guys think any of this has to do with the proposed Disney takeover of the Fox RSN's?  Are teams being cautious, because the RSN money may be drying up?  I just don't get why this offseason has been so slow for FA's.  

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRghSG2xROOkgctuzj56pUSP6zCxUUQ1i7LND0jnficQ0TPtIY8OhNl3AN_StqMvBCHnO_qOXKZeTbE/pubhtml

As of right now, only 2 teams are over the tax threshold.  Even the Dogs and Yanks are under it.  3 teams are over $100 million under the cap.  10 total teams over $75 million under the cap.  

Im pretty sure Disney is not getting the RSNs.

[gotbeer]

6 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Im pretty sure Disney is not getting the RSNs.

From what I've read, yes they are.   

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2017/12/14/for-sports-here-are-five-burning-questions-around-the-disney-fox-mega-merger/#184625fa7ba4

[Hubs]

The D'Backs could still be in on Martinez. Padres are supposedly in on Hosmer. Moustakas likely goes back to the Royals. Arrieta and Darvish and Cobb and Lynn will all get deals, but for less than they want.

But that still leaves hundreds of free agents. Guys who had full time jobs last year, not part timers or minor league fringe guys. I think the media and this message board often focus on the top free agents, but obviously under the radar guys can make a big impact too. A lot of the board wanted Jason Heyward, which was understandable with the state of the OF (especially left) at the time, but he has drastically under performed. And he was expensive. This Angels team last year got way more value from Bridwell, Parker, Norris, Young, etc.

So I get not going after the top end, as frequently the bottom can be more productive.

But even the mid-tier guys are having trouble finding a job.

Look at 1B, OK, so Hosmer was the prize, and then you had guys like Morrison who also remain unsigned. But you also have guys like Mark Reynolds who killed it in Colorado, as well as Lucas Duda, Mike Napoli, and Adam Lind who are all servicable 1B/DH types.

At 2nd, Chase Utley will likely retire, but Neil Walker is still available. We could bring back Cliff Pennington. Nunez is also still available and a lot of people on this board coveted him.

Obviously Moustakas is the best player at 3rd still available, but Todd Frazier and Yunel Escobar are still available.

The market at SS is tight, which is why Cozart signed with us. But Aybar and JJ Hardy and Stephen Drew still don't have jobs.

Lucroy and Montero are still available at C.

In the OF, CarGo is still available, even after a down year, someone should've taken a flier on him. 4th OF types like Ben Revere, Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay, Ethier, Maybin, and Chris Young are all available.

The market for pitchers is also slow with guys like Wade Miley and others available too.

You could realistically build a entire 25 man roster from free agents, right now and that team may compete for a playoff spot. And not just with the top guys.

Give me a $150M payroll, and that team could compete in the NL East or AL Central.

 

[VariousCrap]

The reality is, this years free agents just aren't good enough to get the money they want.  They want elite deals because they are the best this off-season has to offer, but that doesn't change that they are not elite players.

Sure, guys like Arietta and Darvish have had great years in the past, but why would you give a 5 year deal to any player who is going to be entering their mid 30's and is going to start to decline?  It is a bad investment.

At some point, the players are going to have to either take less money than they hoped for or less years.  I'd even suggest some of them signing a one year deal in hopes they have a badass season and can get a better deal next off-season.  Otherwise the season is going to start and they are going to be stuck at home.

[VariousCrap]

On 1/30/2018 at 9:46 AM, Biergott said:

Slow hot stove isn't just boring...now we are hearing strike talk begin to simmer.  Of course its from the Doyers.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/dodgers/2018/01/28/dodgers-pitcher-kenley-jansen-slow-mlb-offseason-maybe-we-need-strike/1073050001/

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-jansen-union-20180127-story.html

Another strike in baseball would be devastating.  Sorry if this is a Craig, I'm overdue for one of those.

 

 

I read this article when it came out and this again proves that these players believe they are entitled to these huge contracts.  You want to see collusion?  It will be the players striking to try to guarantee themselves bigger contracts in the future.  If a strike happens, especially for this reason, this sport will be in serious trouble.

[Stradling]

17 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

The reality is, this years free agents just aren't good enough to get the money they want.  They want elite deals because they are the best this off-season has to offer, but that doesn't change that they are not elite players.

Sure, guys like Arietta and Darvish have had great years in the past, but why would you give a 5 year deal to any player who is going to be entering their mid 30's and is going to start to decline?  It is a bad investment.

At some point, the players are going to have to either take less money than they hoped for or less years.  I'd even suggest some of them signing a one year deal in hopes they have a badass season and can get a better deal next off-season.  Otherwise the season is going to start and they are going to be stuck at home.

This would be much more true if guys like Cueto and Smardjka didn’t get big deals for five years a couple years back from the same team.  

[Chuck]

Someone wake me when the they light the hot stove again. Zzzzzzzz

[VariousCrap]

21 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This would be much more true if guys like Cueto and Smardjka didn’t get big deals for five years a couple years back from the same team.  

 

I understand your point, but baseball has changed.  Even in just the last couple years.  Just because it was a certain way in the past, doesn't mean it will always be that way.  In my opinion, everyone from managers to general managers to even owners pay so much attention to analytics now, they have changed their view on what types of deals to make to players.  I think you are going to see this trend continue.  Call it the Pujols/Kemp Syndrome.  Thanks to analytics, teams can be more confident than ever determining if a player is already starting to decline (even the slightest bit) prior to free agency and what will most likely be their decline in the coming years.  Because of this, I think GM's and owners are going to be a lot less likely to offer elite deals to non-elite players and/or players going into their mid-30's.

[Ohtaniland]

The owners are doing the right thing by not signing a big splash player that probably won’t help take them to a championship level anyway. If the team doesn’t have a solid youthful base core that’s ready to compete at the highest level then why should owners throw millions at a 30 something guy that won’t really help change the outcome. 

[Stradling]

29 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

I understand your point, but baseball has changed.  Even in just the last couple years.  Just because it was a certain way in the past, doesn't mean it will always be that way.  In my opinion, everyone from managers to general managers to even owners pay so much attention to analytics now, they have changed their view on what types of deals to make to players.  I think you are going to see this trend continue.  Call it the Pujols/Kemp Syndrome.  Thanks to analytics, teams can be more confident than ever determining if a player is already starting to decline (even the slightest bit) prior to free agency and what will most likely be their decline in the coming years.  Because of this, I think GM's and owners are going to be a lot less likely to offer elite deals to non-elite players and/or players going into their mid-30's.

I’ll believe it’s changed if the rest of the off season actually produces a change.  As of now the only change is no one has signed yet. 

[VariousCrap]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I’ll believe it’s changed if the rest of the off season actually produces a change.  As of now the only change is no one has signed yet. 

Good point.  It will be interesting to see who gives in first, but if I owned a team, I wouldn't offer more than a three year deal to any of the top free agents still out there.

[m0nkey]

2013 #1 pick Mark Appel is stepping away from the game for the time being. On track to be the third #1 pick to never make the majors 

[Chris]

Peter Bourjos signs minor league deal with the Cubs.  The dream is over.

[Angel Oracle]

It's almost getting surreal.    Never have had this many big name FAs unsigned on February 1, except for maybe 1989/1990 (the alleged collusion year). 

[Biergott]

It would be cool to see a list, maybe the past 10 years or so, of the remaining free agents as of Feb 1 of their respective years.  Anyone know if this exists somewhere?  Seems like with such a slow stove that there would be someone bored enough to compile it.

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, VariousCrap said:

Good point.  It will be interesting to see who gives in first, but if I owned a team, I wouldn't offer more than a three year deal to any of the top free agents still out there.

Good luck with that thought 

[Ohtaniland]

Imagine that.....sorry honey, I was trying to get $150M but I had to settle for $110M so we’re just going have to change our lifestyle.