The Official 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

[Ohtaniland]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Still think Boras has a ton to do with this.  

Boras clients don't take lesser multi year deals.  Weaver is the only one I can think of ever.  

If the market doesn't play out as expected, they take a one year deal at the end of the off season.  

It's certainly not just his clients that are causing this.  

The relief market is on time.  1b pretty much as well.  But certainly not SP or the big money position players.  

The reason I think Boras clients are still a big part of this is that usually the top of the market gets set first and then everyone else falls in line.  Boras, on the other hand, waits for the market to develop.  He plays off desperation.  

But who's desperate?  Or willing to spend a bit more that they probably should?

BOS - probably.  But they are essentially looking for that one bat.  

NYY - maybe but I doubt it.  They are finally below the CBT threshold and likely want to stay that way.  I see them making a trade more than signing a big time FA.  

TBR, TOR, or BAL?  don't think so.  

 

CLE, KCR, CWS or DET? - nope.

Min - maybe but unlikely to break the bank.  if they were going  to do so, I bet they would have already.  

 

HOU - doubtful.  I could see them waiting out the market for an unexpected upgrade.

LAA - See Hou. 

SEA or TEX - maybe.  could see Texas pony up but they'd likely have to get rid of some salary.  SEA is a wild card.  but I doubt they spend big on a pitcher.  

OAk - nope

 

WAS - maybe.  and they have history with Boras.  But they're pretty set across the board.

MIA, ATL, PHI, NYM - nope

 

CHN - doubtful.  don't see them overpaying.  

MIL - maybe.  Like the Twins, they probably aren't desperate as much as willing if the price is right.  

STL - doubtful.  I could see them spending a bit, but not in a desperate way.  

CIN, PIT - nope

 

LAD - doubtful.  they'll spend if it works but I don't see them going nuts.  They just made a big play to get under the CBT.  

ARI - maybe.  but restricted by payroll.  would need to trade Greinke to add a big money guy.  

COL - doubtful.  Pretty set.  Don't see them going big on anyone else now that they've put a ton of money on their pen

SDP - doubtful.  Probably willing to spend, but not in a desperate way.  

SFG - probably.  Their window is close and they don't want to admit it.  Could see them stupidly adding a big money starter of JD Martinez.  

 

So you really only have two probablys and several maybes.  I think Boras has misjudged this market a bit.  If I were a non boars client right now, I'd be taking the best deal in front of me.  

Tell you what though.  I could handle a Darvish deal at 4/100.  I doubt it as it seems more likely he gets a Cueto type deal. 

But there is going to be some guys left standing.   

  

 

Boras clients have all priced themselves right out of a job. Boras is going to have to have a 1/2 off sale if he wants get them all signed before spring training.

[JarsOfClay]

4 hours ago, OHTANILAND said:

Boras clients have all priced themselves right out of a job. Boras is going to have to have a 1/2 off sale if he wants get them all signed before spring training.

I dont think so.  There's always a sucker out there and someone will bite.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Boras clients don't take lesser multi year deals.  Weaver is the only one I can think of ever.  

Weaver wasted his first year after being drafted by the Angels listening to Boras, he wasn't going to make that mistake again, plus he liked being near his family.

[wopphil]

I think there are still a number of teams willing to give out a large deal.

I could see the Padres or Royals giving Hosmer his $100 mil deal.

The Twins, Rangers, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, or Phillies going to $100+ mil on Darvish or Arrieta, or $60+ mil on Lynn or Cobb.

The Red Sox going to $100+ mil on Martinez. 

The Royals, Yankees, Braves or Giants going $60+ mil on Moustakas.

[Blarg]

Yankees are out on Moustakas, they have Ji Man Choi.

[Stradling]

Anyone think that Moustakas might go the one year route, possibly with KC, and try again next year?  In my mind he’s the most likely to do it.  

[DMVol]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Anyone think that Moustakas might go the one year route, possibly with KC, and try again next year?  In my mind he’s the most likely to do it.  

More likely than any of the others to do it....Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if 2 of Moose, Hosmer and Cain re-sign with KC, maybe for more than a year.....

[Redondo]

48 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Anyone think that Moustakas might go the one year route, possibly with KC, and try again next year?  In my mind he’s the most likely to do it.  

I can see this happening. Depends on how desperate teams are closer to ST

[Tank]

if moose tries FA again next year, he'll run into much of the same trouble because machado and harper will be available, and the bidding for them ought to be intense, leaving moose in the dust. he's one of the better FA available this year and there hasn't really been much news about anyone trying to sign him. next summer it'll be even moreso.

[Ohtaniland]

57 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Anyone think that Moustakas might go the one year route, possibly with KC, and try again next year?  In my mind he’s the most likely to do it.  

No he’ll end up getting a mid-January “settle for less” type deal like Upton did a couple of seasons ago. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 hours ago, OHTANILAND said:

Boras clients have all priced themselves right out of a job. Boras is going to have to have a 1/2 off sale if he wants get them all signed before spring training.

Maybe 2 for 1?

[Troll Daddy]

This is more about owners not wanting to sign $100M plus contracts than about Borass. Long term contracts have lost their luster it seems. 

[Blarg]

Boras BOGO Days!

[AngelsLakersFan]

25 minutes ago, OHTANILAND said:

No he’ll end up getting a mid-January “settle for less” type deal like Upton did a couple of seasons ago. 

When did Upton sign a deal like that?

[DMVol]

41 minutes ago, OHTANILAND said:

No he’ll end up getting a mid-January “settle for less” type deal like Upton did a couple of seasons ago. 

 

14 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

When did Upton sign a deal like that?

He didn’t.....Tigers bid against themselves, like we did with Hamilton....

[Stradling]

41 minutes ago, OHTANILAND said:

No he’ll end up getting a mid-January “settle for less” type deal like Upton did a couple of seasons ago. 

I’d agree with this if there’s was a market for third baseman.  I never thought he’d get more than 4 years $65 million.  I could see him either re-upping with KC for 4-5 years or signing with them for one year.  If we didn’t have Valbuena he could be an answer here at the right price. 

[Stradling]

18 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

When did Upton sign a deal like that?

He thinks there was no market for Upton so he signed the Tigers deal which of course is silly since he got $108 million and an opt out after year two.  That isn’t a settle for deal.  That is getting a great deal.  

[Troll Daddy]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Yankees are out on Moustakas, they have Ji Man Choi.

Funny you said that ... Angels are in on him too

[Second Base]

Choi's actually a decent target for this team. Stash him in AAA and promote him in the event that Valbuena just doesn't hit.

[Second Base]

21 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Still think Boras has a ton to do with this.  

Boras clients don't take lesser multi year deals.  Weaver is the only one I can think of ever.  

If the market doesn't play out as expected, they take a one year deal at the end of the off season.  

It's certainly not just his clients that are causing this.  

The relief market is on time.  1b pretty much as well.  But certainly not SP or the big money position players.  

The reason I think Boras clients are still a big part of this is that usually the top of the market gets set first and then everyone else falls in line.  Boras, on the other hand, waits for the market to develop.  He plays off desperation.  

But who's desperate?  Or willing to spend a bit more that they probably should?

BOS - probably.  But they are essentially looking for that one bat.  

NYY - maybe but I doubt it.  They are finally below the CBT threshold and likely want to stay that way.  I see them making a trade more than signing a big time FA.  

TBR, TOR, or BAL?  don't think so.  

 

CLE, KCR, CWS or DET? - nope.

Min - maybe but unlikely to break the bank.  if they were going  to do so, I bet they would have already.  

 

HOU - doubtful.  I could see them waiting out the market for an unexpected upgrade.

LAA - See Hou. 

SEA or TEX - maybe.  could see Texas pony up but they'd likely have to get rid of some salary.  SEA is a wild card.  but I doubt they spend big on a pitcher.  

OAk - nope

 

WAS - maybe.  and they have history with Boras.  But they're pretty set across the board.

MIA, ATL, PHI, NYM - nope

 

CHN - doubtful.  don't see them overpaying.  

MIL - maybe.  Like the Twins, they probably aren't desperate as much as willing if the price is right.  

STL - doubtful.  I could see them spending a bit, but not in a desperate way.  

CIN, PIT - nope

 

LAD - doubtful.  they'll spend if it works but I don't see them going nuts.  They just made a big play to get under the CBT.  

ARI - maybe.  but restricted by payroll.  would need to trade Greinke to add a big money guy.  

COL - doubtful.  Pretty set.  Don't see them going big on anyone else now that they've put a ton of money on their pen

SDP - doubtful.  Probably willing to spend, but not in a desperate way.  

SFG - probably.  Their window is close and they don't want to admit it.  Could see them stupidly adding a big money starter of JD Martinez.  

 

So you really only have two probablys and several maybes.  I think Boras has misjudged this market a bit.  If I were a non boars client right now, I'd be taking the best deal in front of me.  

Tell you what though.  I could handle a Darvish deal at 4/100.  I doubt it as it seems more likely he gets a Cueto type deal. 

But there is going to be some guys left standing.   

  

 

Exactly. If I'm Eppler right now, I stand pat and wait for someone valuable to fall in my lap.

He was smart to strike when everyone else was waiting. Now reap the benefits. There will be some decent players left standing because their agents misjudged the market.

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Exactly. If I'm Eppler right now, I stand pat and wait for someone valuable to fall in my lap.

He was smart to strike when everyone else was waiting. Now reap the benefits. There will be some decent players left standing because their agents misjudged the market.

and how good does an AAV of 21mil for Justin Upton look right now?  

Upton is exactly 4 days younger than JD Martinez.   

They both have 15.2 bWAR over the last 4 years.  Upton 12.0 vs JDM 10.9 the last 3 yrs.  JU 7.6 vs. JDM 6.0 the last two.  

Martinez is the better hitter, but Upton is a much better defender.  We actually haven't seen Upton play the defense he's capable of as he was pretty poor when joining the halos.  

But overall, Upton and JDM are very close comps in terms of value.  We're all going to see what a bargain Upton is when Martinez signs a 6 yr deal with an AAV closer to 25/26 mil.  My guess is he gets 6/150-160.  

[Rico]

39 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Exactly. If I'm Eppler right now, I stand pat and wait for someone valuable to fall in my lap.

He was smart to strike when everyone else was waiting. Now reap the benefits. There will be some decent players left standing because their agents misjudged the market.

Vlad signed second week of January if I remember correctly.  

[Second Base]

35 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and how good does an AAV of 21mil for Justin Upton look right now?  

Upton is exactly 4 days younger than JD Martinez.   

They both have 15.2 bWAR over the last 4 years.  Upton 12.0 vs JDM 10.9 the last 3 yrs.  JU 7.6 vs. JDM 6.0 the last two.  

Martinez is the better hitter, but Upton is a much better defender.  We actually haven't seen Upton play the defense he's capable of as he was pretty poor when joining the halos.  

But overall, Upton and JDM are very close comps in terms of value.  We're all going to see what a bargain Upton is when Martinez signs a 6 yr deal with an AAV closer to 25/26 mil.  My guess is he gets 6/150-160.  

I think it's all relative. I mean Upton and Martinez are comparable because of age and free agency, but I think it really comes down to how a team uses those wins above replacement. 

If JDM is signed to play OF somewhere, then yeah, Upton is clearly the more valuable player. But if Martinez is a DH, then we can only measure their offensive contributions in which case, Martinez is the more valuable player. 

It also comes down to team needs. The Angels absolutely NEEDED Upton in LF and his bat in the middle of the lineup. 

I think Martinez gets 6 years, but I think the lack of teams spending on FA will knock his value down to the 23 million AAV range. 

The big thing with me is I'm excited just how perfect of a fit Upton is here. We already know he's a great fit with our clubhouse, his teammates and manager. He signed early, which offered the Angels more clarity on their offseason direction, he's centrally located near his family, he wants to be here. He's entering a situation where he doesn't have to be an outspoken leader and carry the team, because we have those. Plus he began selling the team to our new 2B also immediately which led to him waiving his NTC.

So regardless of contract, you can't pencil in a better fit here than Upton. But yeah, 21 million AAV for him seems like a heck of a deal for both sides at this point.

[Second Base]

36 minutes ago, Rico said:

Vlad signed second week of January if I remember correctly.  

I think you're right, and while Vlad was certainly a "steal" I don't remember him falling in our lap as much as we threw everything and the kitchen sink at him.

[DMVol]

13 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think you're right, and while Vlad was certainly a "steal" I don't remember him falling in our lap as much as we threw everything and the kitchen sink at him.

He did fall in our lap....Stoneman was done....had signed Colon, Escobar and Guillen  pretty quickly and wasn’t going after Vlad...Vlad’s best offer was the O’s, Mets were also involved....His agent called Stoney...Stoney told Arte we weren’t going to do this but he wants to come....Arte approved the signing, went over budget...