AngelsWin.com Today: Angelswin.com 2018 Primer Series: Finances

[Ohtaniland]

1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

Approx 30 more mil to spend sounds right.  I could see signing moustakes or frazier and walker for about 25 aav. Then get petit for 5.  Also I don't want EYJ at 1 mil. 

 

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

To me that’s risky.  At any time in the next year any of those guys could sign extensions.  

 

54 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

The most successful era in Angels history was "built" in one offseason when Arte took over the team and went past the threshold by signing Vlad, Escobar, and Colon.

Yes I understand all of that but there’s an assumption here that Arte is going to empty his entire wallet and reach close to the new threshold this offseason. 

I still think Arte has a number (a slight budget increase) that’s he’s comfortable working with but it will be much more conservative than what’s being thrown around here by our resident Angels MONOPOLY money players. More thoughts? 

[ettin]

3 hours ago, Calzone said:

So with the huge free agent class (much better selection of talent) coming out next offseason would it be wise for Arte to tie up too much future money this offseason?

My point is that we need to build sustainable team that will win like we did 2002-2009. Rome wasn’t built in a day so to speak. I see a lots of post with high expectation wish lists this offseason.

I still don’t think Arte is going to go much beyond $175M this offseason. Thoughts?

Actually Claude I believe what you just said is a possible scenario. If the Angels strike out on a specific big target they may add more complimentary pieces, such as a 2B and perhaps a multi-inning starter/reliever and then focus on the free agent class next year. As @Dochalo said in another thread, and I agree with, there are probably some relative bargains to be had in the mid-tier of the free agent market next off-season. The top tier guys like Kershaw, Harper, and Machado will have heavy competition (say the Phillies for instance who literally have only $10M in long-term commitments and are ready to strike). However the "leftovers" on the market should provide a small handful of real bargains.

Everything really comes down to Moreno. Eppler is trying to give himself as much space as possible to operate but Arte drives the boat and could keep it on cruise control or could throttle it up to max speed. But yes I agree with you that this is one possible outcome based on what happens this off-season.

Edited November 3, 2017 by ettin

[Blarg]

I'm pretty sure Upton was the Angels "Big Target" and the rest of the aquisitions will be at a value players for the rest of the openings. Cron will be the first baseman with Valbuena as backup. Cowart will be the utility infielder. I'd like to see Revere retained as a fourth outfielder.

2nd and 3rd are the wilcard positions. Nothing in the minors is going to cover those holes this season but I dont see Eppler going long with Moose. These are the two positions I think we are going stop gap with again unless Eppler pulls another Simmons like trade again. If he trades pitching depth then Chatwood would be the guy to fill the rotation hole without burning too much budget.

In short I'm betting a large part of the cap is held in reserve for a midseason trade should the Angels be in contention and still have a buffer to work with in 2019.

[Ohtaniland]

OMG Blarg actually agrees with me.

Or I agree with Blarg. Get to your shelters!

 

[ettin]

16 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I'm pretty sure Upton was the Angels "Big Target" and the rest of the aquisitions will be at a value players for the rest of the openings. Cron will be the first baseman with Valbuena as backup. Cowart will be the utility infielder. I'd like to see Revere retained as a fourth outfielder.

This is the most probable outcome out of all of the scenarios in play. Don't mistake my desire for a bigger player with the actual probable outcomes. I said repeatedly that a Stanton trade for instance is, at best, a 10%-15% probability. Something like what you are suggesting is likely more in the 30%-40% range (just spit-balling here) for instance.

2nd and 3rd are the wildcard positions. Nothing in the minors is going to cover those holes this season but I dont see Eppler going long with Moose. These are the two positions I think we are going stop gap with again unless Eppler pulls another Simmons like trade again. If he trades pitching depth then Chatwood would be the guy to fill the rotation hole without burning too much budget.

Barring an oddball trade for someone like Josh Donaldson or Eugenio Suarez (a personal favorite), Valbuena will almost certainly be our starting 3B probably in a platoon with Jefry Marte. I think we will have a new long-term 2B before Opening Day.

In short I'm betting a large part of the cap is held in reserve for a midseason trade should the Angels be in contention and still have a buffer to work with in 2019.

Agreed.

 

[Blarg]

I looked up MLB salaries and Josh Hamilton was the fourth highest paid player last season. Not one minute did he suit up to play. 

I'm sure Eppler has a line in the sand where the cutoff is for player risk/value and we will never again see another Hamilton contract.

[ettin]

Update on Angels estimated (arbitration numbers per MLBTradeRumors.com projections) Finances as of 12/01/2017:

[Angel Oracle]

I should celebrate Hackilton’s contract FINALLY being finished with a nice bottle of Opus One.

[ettin]

" The bottom-line is that the Angels are entering the 2017-2018 off-season with solid financial flexibility, a core group of competent players to compliment Mike Trout (and the ability to acquire more), and a rapidly growing farm system to increasingly draw upon as needed in the coming seasons. We may look back and point to this off-season as the turning point for a sustained run over the next several years."

 

Although the Ohtani signing was remote at the time I wrote this, it was very clear that Eppler has the resources and tools to make a series of impactful moves and by signing Shohei he made perhaps one of the most impactful choices he could have made to our long-term success.

I will post an updated Financials chart when I get to my home computer but the next 1-2 years should have zero impact on our payroll which simply allows Eppler to go out and make more impactful moves in the market. Signing Ohtani is basically equivalent to trading for Chris Archer because both of them are paid so little and produce so much. Truly a game changing move both on the field and to team finances.

Bravo Eppler, bravo sir!

[ettin]

Updated Finances for 2018 with Ohtani and Kinsler added:

 

Still nearly $40M under the Luxury Tax threshold. The impact of Ohtani can not be understated from a financial perspective, it is a difference maker for the club long-term.

Also we currently have one roster spot open ahead of the Rule V draft. I don't expect the Angels to take anyone but there are some interesting names available.

[ettin]

Updated with Zack Cozart. Note that Shohei Ohtani has not been officially added to the 40-man roster per the Angels website. Luke Bard is actually in his place right now on the 40-man but once Ohtani's signing is official the Angels will have to designate a player for assignment unless they make a trade before the Ohtani deal is complete.

In my opinion one of Jefry Marte, Noe Ramirez, or Dayan Diaz will be on the bubble, probably Marte.

The Angels are approximately $27M under the Luxury Tax threshold. There is room to add one more reliever via free agency or trade if that is what the Angels desire. I can see Cron and one of our current relievers moved in trade to acquire a guy like Wade Davis or Addison Reed (the latter being mine and @totdprods favorite).

[Troll Daddy]

2 minutes ago, ettin said:

Updated with Zack Cozart. Note that Shohei Ohtani has not been officially added to the 40-man roster per the Angels website. Luke Bard is actually in his place right now on the 40-man but once Ohtani's signing is official the Angels will have to designate a player for assignment unless they make a trade before the Ohtani deal is complete.

In my opinion one of Jefry Marte, Noe Ramirez, or Dayan Diaz will be on the bubble, probably Marte.

The Angels are approximately $27M under the Luxury Tax threshold. There is room to add one more reliever via free agency or trade if that is what the Angels desire. I can see Cron and one of our current relievers moved in trade to acquire a guy like Wade Davis or Addison Reed (the latter being mine and @totdprods favorite).

Davis won’t require a trade