AngelsWin.com Today: Angelswin.com 2018 Primer Series: Introduction

[tdawg87]

See Blarg? When you play the contrarian sometimes Claude agrees with you.

[Blarg]

4 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

See Blarg? When you play the contrarian sometimes Claude agrees with you.

Dammit, the last thing I want is validation from a Canadian. 

[Ohtaniland]

47 minutes ago, Lou said:

Who is they?

I knew I could stump you. 

 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Nice job as usual Robert.  

Enjoyed reading the discussion as well.  Not to poop on the Stanton party, but we're not getting both him and Upton.  

I've seen our CBT AAV number around 150 mil if Upton stays and we don't exercise options.  And that includes benefits.  Whereas the real number is around 160 mil right now

I think our max real number to start the year is 190.  While the numbers work to bring in Stanton and stay below the threshold, I just don't see it happening.  I think it would be great though so I am hoping for it.  

I have seen some mention that they would go in now and not wait for the bidding wars of 2019, but I feel the opposite.  I think that market is going to run out of money at some point and there are going to be some really good players available for less than expected.   Particularly with SP.  

Remember, we've got all of Luis Valbuena and maybe Richards as well as a couple smaller numbers coming off after 2018 with a bunch more arb money being added.  

Honestly, I think Eppler is gonna make some moves that no one expects.  

I think for the most part, Eppler does things that I just don't expect, but they tend to work out.

I'm thinking if I don't expect Stanton, I'll have a better chance at watching Stanton play next to Trout for the next 10 years.

But as it stands, my guess is...

1. Trade OF Michael Hermosillo and RHP Jeremy Rhoades for 2B Jason Kipnis (and absorb his contract, of course). He's left handed and the top or middle of the order bat we need. Free agent in 2020.

2. Trade RHP Jake Jewell for IF Jurickson Profar. 

3. Sign Eduardo Nunez for 3/36.

4. Sign/extend Justin Upton to 5 years to 5/110.

[IEAngelsfan]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Who is they?

He's actually referring to "Them."

[ettin]

33 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Nice job as usual Robert.  

Enjoyed reading the discussion as well.  Not to poop on the Stanton party, but we're not getting both him and Upton.  

I've seen our CBT AAV number around 150 mil if Upton stays and we don't exercise options.  And that includes benefits.  Whereas the real number is around 160 mil right now

I think our max real number to start the year is 190.  While the numbers work to bring in Stanton and stay below the threshold, I just don't see it happening.  I think it would be great though so I am hoping for it.

I have seen some mention that they would go in now and not wait for the bidding wars of 2019, but I feel the opposite.  I think that market is going to run out of money at some point and there are going to be some really good players available for less than expected.   Particularly with SP.  

Remember, we've got all of Luis Valbuena and maybe Richards as well as a couple smaller numbers coming off after 2018 with a bunch more arb money being added.  

Honestly, I think Eppler is gonna make some moves that no one expects.  

Stanton is a complex contract and there are a lot of moving parts which is why, again, I think our odds are about 10%-15%. The numbers work though, particularly if his AAV is only $17.833M over the next three years and Calhoun is sent to Miami off-setting that by Kole's $8.33M for a net $9.7M added. It will be exciting if this happens but a difficult deal to consummate.

Actual salary is a problem which is why some of this discussion is dependent upon Arte opening up the pocketbook. The Angels have a positive operating income over the last 3 years and the addition of another star player should only help ticket and merchandise sales so, to me, there is an opportunity to increase payroll significantly without the team losing money but, of course, it is not my money to spend.

If Calhoun was traded for Stanton there would be about a $17M-18M off-set increase to actual team payroll which, if Upton stays, would put us up near $180M in 2018 for actual payroll. If Moreno decides that this is the time to spend really big there is no reason, other than Arte's desire or lack thereof to spend, we can't approach the CBT threshold this season and then exceed it in 2019 and 2020 and come back down after the completion of the 2020 season.

My optimism about the team improving this year certainly may be too high but I don't think it is terribly off-base.

Also I agree Doc that the 2018-2018 free agent class will probably have deals to be had but a team like the Phillies with only about $10M in AAV commitments will very likely buy up at least 3 big players in the next 2 years. There are 28 other teams that could make purchases too so I am not confident that some of those "leftover" deals will be that much of a bargain.

Additionally a star player like Kershaw or Harper will be over $30M in AAV when they sign their contracts and Stanton, at a split $17.8M/$29.4M AAV (2018-2020/2021-2029), would be a smarter purchase to maintain payroll flexibility (not to mention we are probably out of the running for Kershaw and Harper).

Finally there are so many ways Eppler can go that yes I agree he will wind up making at least one move that no one sees coming.

[Jeff Fletcher]

I really can't see any scenario in which the Angels get Stanton. 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, ettin said:

Stanton is a complex contract and there are a lot of moving parts which is why, again, I think our odds are about 10%-15%. The numbers work though, particularly if his AAV is only $17.833M over the next three years and Calhoun is sent to Miami off-setting that by Kole's $8.33M for a net $9.7M added. It will be exciting if this happens but a difficult deal to consummate.

Actual salary is a problem which is why some of this discussion is dependent upon Arte opening up the pocketbook. The Angels have a positive operating income over the last 3 years and the addition of another star player should only help ticket and merchandise sales so, to me, there is an opportunity to increase payroll significantly without the team losing money but, of course, it is not my money to spend.

If Calhoun was traded for Stanton there would be about a $17M-18M off-set increase to actual team payroll which, if Upton stays, would put us up near $180M in 2018 for actual payroll. If Moreno decides that this is the time to spend really big there is no reason, other than Arte's desire or lack thereof to spend, we can't approach the CBT threshold this season and then exceed it in 2019 and 2020 and come back down after the completion of the 2020 season.

My optimism about the team improving this year certainly may be too high but I don't think it is terribly off-base.

Also I agree Doc that the 2018-2018 free agent class will probably have deals to be had but a team like the Phillies with only about $10M in AAV commitments will very likely buy up at least 3 big players in the next 2 years. There are 28 other teams that could make purchases too so I am not confident that some of those "leftover" deals will be that much of a bargain.

Additionally a star player like Kershaw or Harper will be over $30M in AAV when they sign their contracts and Stanton, at a split $17.8M/$29.4M AAV (2018-2020/2021-2029), would be a smarter purchase to maintain payroll flexibility (not to mention we are probably out of the running for Kershaw and Harper).

Finally there are so many ways Eppler can go that yes I agree he will wind up making at least one move that no one sees coming.

the only deal Eppler has made which was 'obvious' is signing Valbuena and honestly I think he got coaxed into it by others in the org (maybe I know something.  maybe I don't).  

Stanton has 7/220 left after 2020 through age 37.  Right now, that's likely fair relative to market.  I would be surprised if he opts out.  His 3/77 for age 28-30 seasons is a bargain.    The last year of Stanton's contract is the age season Albert just finished.  So personally, I agree that his contract isn't a total albatross.  But...he's gonna cost more than people expect as there are going to be at least a handful of teams vying for this.  Your 10-15% is fair if not high.  It's moves to zero if they keep Upton.  

Arte has a number and it's likely around 180 mil.  Still gives us around 30 even if we keep upton.  But I'll mention this one more time - around 15mil coming off after 2018, and essentially no money coming off after 2019.  So whatever we spend this off season is what we're spending for the next three years.  

[jsnpritchett]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think for the most part, Eppler does things that I just don't expect, but they tend to work out.

I'm thinking if I don't expect Stanton, I'll have a better chance at watching Stanton play next to Trout for the next 10 years.

But as it stands, my guess is...

1. Trade OF Michael Hermosillo and RHP Jeremy Rhoades for 2B Jason Kipnis (and absorb his contract, of course). He's left handed and the top or middle of the order bat we need. Free agent in 2020.

2. Trade RHP Jake Jewell for IF Jurickson Profar. 

3. Sign Eduardo Nunez for 3/36.

4. Sign/extend Justin Upton to 5 years to 5/110.

Am I missing something as to why Jeremy Rhoades would have any trade value? 

I'd also think that even with the struggles Profar has had in his limited ML experience, he'd still require someone better than Jewell.

[Second Base]

13 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Am I missing something as to why Jeremy Rhoades would have any trade value? 

I'd also think that even with the struggles Profar has had in his limited ML experience, he'd still require someone better than Jewell.

Both will inevitably end up in relief and both can hit 95+.

But don't disagree. As I understand the Rangers may end up DFA'ing him if they don't trade him.

[Slegnaac]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I really can't see any scenario in which the Angels get Stanton. 

So there is a chance?

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I really can't see any scenario in which the Angels get Stanton. 

Thanks.

 

[totdprods]

13 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

So there is a chance?

Vlad, Pujols, Hamilton, Simmons, Greinke, Haren, and Upton all happened without much advance notice or rumblings too. 

Differenr scenarios sure but the Angels do surprise more often than not, even though I agree that Stanton isn't very likely.

[Tank]

On 10/27/2017 at 6:59 PM, Scotty@AW said:

I don't think it's as unlikely as folks think. We need offense, we have more money to spend than we've ever had, Stanton gives us our franchise player, is a So-Cal native, and he's the only hitter of his caliber that can be acquired without spending an insane amount on prospects.

um, did you forget about #27? you may have seen him roaming centerfield on occasion.

[Tank]

On 10/28/2017 at 11:37 AM, Blarg said:

Your superstar has only three years before he can choose where to play. Now you've got both Trout and Stanton that could bail. 

But if Stanton stays, you have Upton on a renogiated contract, Pujols money still on the books, just where is your money for the Trout extension? If he does it's four players taking up more than $120 million of your payroll. 

It can be done but what does it require to assemble the other 21 players on the roster? Well, no big money for the rotation, the support cast on the infield has to remain under the cap and you have Simmons for the same window as Trout. If he continues to play at the current level he's going to be expensive to re-sign.

Economics in baseball has to be more than a three year window.

here's something to consider - think of the money generated from winning and being in the playoffs, maybe even a WS title or two in that time frame.

i've no recollection of ever seeing it, but i wonder just where the angels income comes from out side of ticket sales and concessions and their tv contract. Perhaps having a winning, championship caliber team should generate a fair amount of revenue (or at least i THINK it should), and maybe that helps the budget enough that going over the luxury tax threshold isn't too big a deal, at least for a few years.

Edited October 29, 2017 by Tank

[halomatt]

I don't see the Angels biting on Stanton, as much as we all might wish.  Instead, I see the Angels taking another year of small bites.  Maybe a trade for second base;  someone that the Angels control for multiple seasons. 

I would also like to see this be an offseason of extensions.  Mike Trout needs to be locked up for the next ten years.  Then Simmons.  Extend him another three/four years. 

I'd also like the Angels to lock down Richards, Skaggs and maybe even Heaney.  These guys don't have much value out there, so why not see if they will take the security of a four year contract?  The Angels might get tremendous value while locking them up at lower rates. 

I don't even care too much about Upton.  I don't see anything but misery in the kind of contract he would get if he opts out. 

In all, I'd rather be patient and let these outfielders (and other prospects) get another year of development in them, and then see what they're worth in trades, while also going all in on guys like Machado in future offseasons. 

[ettin]

37 minutes ago, Tank said:

here's something to consider - think of the money generated from winning and being in the playoffs, maybe even a WS title or two in that time frame.

i've no recollection of ever seeing it, but i wonder just where the angels income comes from out side of ticket sales and concessions and their tv contract. Perhaps having a winning, championship caliber team should generate a fair amount of revenue (or at least i THINK it should), and maybe that helps the budget enough that going over the luxury tax threshold isn't too big a deal, at least for a few years.

I speak about this in tomorrows Finances section. Remember the Angels have a TV contract that brings in $150M annually plus they have a partial share of the Regional Sports Network. Operating Income has been increasing the last 4 years. This is why I believe that if Moreno chooses to exceed the Luxury Tax threshold he can do so without losing money on a yearly basis (but perhaps not making much either if he does). I agree that if by some miracle we were able to keep Upton and trade for another star like Stanton (doesn't have to be him but someone) it would certainly improve the Angels marketing situation, not to mention any push into the playoffs would create some additional revenue.

25 minutes ago, halomatt said:

I don't see the Angels biting on Stanton, as much as we all might wish.  Instead, I see the Angels taking another year of small bites.  Maybe a trade for second base;  someone that the Angels control for multiple seasons. 

I would also like to see this be an offseason of extensions.  Mike Trout needs to be locked up for the next ten years.  Then Simmons.  Extend him another three/four years. 

I'd also like the Angels to lock down Richards, Skaggs and maybe even Heaney.  These guys don't have much value out there, so why not see if they will take the security of a four year contract?  The Angels might get tremendous value while locking them up at lower rates. 

I don't even care too much about Upton.  I don't see anything but misery in the kind of contract he would get if he opts out. 

In all, I'd rather be patient and let these outfielders (and other prospects) get another year of development in them, and then see what they're worth in trades, while also going all in on guys like Machado in future offseasons. 

I do speak about this as well in subsequent articles. Trout will almost certainly receive his extension next off-season in my opinion but I'd love to see him sign it sooner. Simmons I also agree heavily on but it will take more than 3 or 4 years.

[stormngt]

On 10/27/2017 at 10:49 PM, Calzone said:

Great read guys, good quality stuff but did Albert die and suddenly vaporize because he’s still going to be making $27M in 2018 and hitting in the middle of the order yet nobody mentions him. Are we building a team around Trout while trying to work around Pujols? He’s a financial burden that can’t be ignored.

Anyway the primer is terrific as usual. It’s sets up the beginning stages of a solid plan moving forward. Hopefully some of this stuff comes to fruition. Spend smart Arte!

 

I am confused.  If we are able to get both Stanton and Gordon and still have 13 million left than how is he a financial burden to the team?  Paid too much but we have the ability to really help the team.  

Now with Gordon, Trout, Stanton, and Upton leading the lineup I could accept Pujols at 5th.

[ettin]

32 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I am confused.  If we are able to get both Stanton and Gordon and still have 13 million left than how is he a financial burden to the team?  Paid too much but we have the ability to really help the team.  

Now with Gordon, Trout, Stanton, and Upton leading the lineup I could accept Pujols at 5th.

The only way it is a financial burden is, as Blarg pointed out, in how much it will add to actual payroll which is higher than AAV. Arte will need to approve that of course because it would push actual team payroll up to about $185M-$190M, assuming Calhoun is traded and Street and Nolasco are sent packing into free agency. In that scenario AAV would be around $167M give or take.

Note that this includes keeping all of our current 40-man roster guys. So if you can settle for a Richards-Skaggs-Shoemaker-Heaney-Bridwell rotation supported by a bullpen cast of Parker-Bedrosian-Middleton-Alvarez-Wood-Tropeano-Guerra with Maldonado/Perez/Graterol behind the plate then it is a scenario you can live with probably. My only concern would be not having another starter in that framework.

Again it will be quite difficult to acquire Stanton in the first place. There will be at least 5 other teams vying for his services. Our primary advantage is that Stanton has a no-trade clause and apparently wants to come to the West Coast. Unfortunately two of the other teams that want him (Dodgers and Giants) are here too and the Dogs have better prospects overall.

[Second Base]

7 hours ago, Tank said:

um, did you forget about #27? you may have seen him roaming centerfield on occasion.

Trout.is more than a franchise player. He might be the best ever. At the very least, he's a once in a generation player. He transcends a franchise.

But every Jordan deserves a Pippin. 

[ettin]

One other thought about Moreno: He has been quoted on more than one occasion stating that he will be willing to exceed the Luxury Tax for the "right player". What this translates to, for me, is that Arte will not mind spending more money if that player is a superstar type guy that will generate increased interest in the team which in turn will generate more revenue through ticket sales, merchandise, and possibly other avenues such as advertising. Basically exactly like what he did with the Pujols signing (which he used to help leverage their big TV deal).

So really we should either expect the normal, stay under the Luxury Tax Angels or a new star player to pair with Trout on the roster and spending gets increased. The odds are much greater on the former than the latter.

Stanton is one example of that type of player. Next year Machado, Kershaw, and Harper are examples of that too. There are certainly others but the only way Arte would ever consider spending money is if he makes money along the way probably.

[Angel Oracle]

I could see the Dogs packaging Puig (solid Cuban population in South Florida) and whichever prospects to get Stanton, who grew up in the S.F. Valley.   Puig has a year left before becoming a FA.   If he flourishes in Miami, they can re-sign him for far less than Stanton is making.

[WeatherWonk]

On 10/28/2017 at 7:18 PM, Jeff Fletcher said:

I really can't see any scenario in which the Angels get Stanton. 

I agree. And not because of the financial numbers, which the article and subsequent discussions make clear is possible.

I just cant see us having enough on our roster to trade for him. Miami will get better offers from other teams. What little farm strength we have is still very young and unproven. Kole and a starter and one or two of those just doesnt seem like enough.............unless they are EXTREMELY motivated to rid themselves of Stanton's contract.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Is the idea that the Angels can afford Stanton based solely on the idea that they could acquire him without going over the luxury tax?

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Is the idea that the Angels can afford Stanton based solely on the idea that they could acquire him without going over the luxury tax?

I think it's based on the fact that they could acquire him without going over the luxury tax, still turn a profit and have a bit of wiggle room to address other needs.