Upton will likely opt-out

[VariousCrap]

17 hours ago, ukyah said:

most likely a better than fair share of his accumulated war is in defense, where upton's will almost all be offensive.

i do like cain though. my preferred signing would be jd martinez.

 

I'd take Upton, Cain or Martinez for the OF anytime.  One thing I like about Cain though is he can be the lead-off hitter for this team if they don't trade for Hernandez for 2B.  He has speed and gets on base at a good rate.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, VariousCrap said:

 

I'd take Upton, Cain or Martinez for the OF anytime.  One thing I like about Cain though is he can be the lead-off hitter for this team if they don't trade for Hernandez for 2B.  He has speed and gets on base at a good rate.

On the other side of the spectrum, Melky Cabrera, Jon Jay, Ben Revere, Jarrod Dyson, Austin Jackson, and Jay Bruce are interesting to me - if they wind up spending big (and I mean big) on pitching and infield instead. Most of those guys have some ability to lead-off and get on base too, and provide at least good defense.

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

And if he opts out and we resign him?

If he opts out he’s certainly going to test the free agency market. If that happens it may force the Angels to overpay or better yet hopefully it blows up in his face. 

[VariousCrap]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

On the other side of the spectrum, Melky Cabrera, Jon Jay, Ben Revere, Jarrod Dyson, Austin Jackson, and Jay Bruce are interesting to me - if they wind up spending big (and I mean big) on pitching and infield instead. Most of those guys have some ability to lead-off and get on base too, and provide at least good defense.

Those guys don't interest me at all.

[Jobu]

2 minutes ago, Calzone said:

If he opts out he’s certainly going to test the free agency market. If that happens it may force the Angels to overpay or better yet hopefully it blows up in his face. 

Shadenclaude

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

Those guys don't interest me at all.

Just saying there are more ways to build this club than throwing a big contract at an outfielder....Upton is my first choice still but given our other needs and OF prospects, I don't think we should just tunnel-vision in on throwing big money at LF.

[VariousCrap]

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Just saying there are more ways to build this club than throwing a big contract at an outfielder....Upton is my first choice still but given our other needs and OF prospects, I don't think we should just tunnel-vision in on throwing big money at LF.

 

I don't think they should "nickel and dime" any position this off-season.  They've done that the last few years and it hasn't worked.  I'd bring Revere back as a fourth outfielder or a Jay as a fourth outfield, but that is it.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

I don't think they should "nickel and dime" any position this off-season.  They've done that the last few years and it hasn't worked.  I'd bring Revere back as a fourth outfielder or a Jay as a fourth outfield, but that is it.

They've done that at just about every need the last couple of years - under that scenario, it'd be the only one they'd go bargain at. 

I'm talking a combo of Moustakas/Frazier, maybe Walker, Hosmer/Santana, two SPs or an ace and relief help...major expenses elsewhere.

[totdprods]

Part of why I bring it up is that I'm still not sold on Simmons or Calhoun at lead-off. If the rest of the lineup is stacked it doesn't matter as much, but both feel less than ideal at the top of the order. Calhoun really isn't a great or an OBP/patience guy, and while Simmons skills certainly fit well at lead-off, he traditionally hasn't performed very well there, and I'd rather not risk doing anything that messes with his approach offensively now that he's taken the next step. 

Lorenzo Cain obviously fits the mold, so no issue there, but a big money commitment to Upton or Martinez starts limiting lead off options to what we can get via trade. 

Melky Cabrera (or Jon Jay) seems like he could give you a Yunel Escobar type offensive line for similar money. Again, not my first choice by any means, but something to have on the table still. Left-handed bat, lead off, good contact and OBP, some defense, some speed.

[mulwin444]

38 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Part of why I bring it up is that I'm still not sold on Simmons or Calhoun at lead-off. If the rest of the lineup is stacked it doesn't matter as much, but both feel less than ideal at the top of the order. Calhoun really isn't a great or an OBP/patience guy, and while Simmons skills certainly fit well at lead-off, he traditionally hasn't performed very well there, and I'd rather not risk doing anything that messes with his approach offensively now that he's taken the next step. 

Lorenzo Cain obviously fits the mold, so no issue there, but a big money commitment to Upton or Martinez starts limiting lead off options to what we can get via trade. 

Melky Cabrera (or Jon Jay) seems like he could give you a Yunel Escobar type offensive line for similar money. Again, not my first choice by any means, but something to have on the table still. Left-handed bat, lead off, good contact and OBP, some defense, some speed.

Per Career Splits, Calhoun puts up his best numbers batting 1st (.277/.334/.797), 2nd (.258/.326.756) 4th (.276/.353/.796) or 6th (.258/.340/.743).

If Upton stays on, and Mike Trout continues to hit 2nd, I don't think you'd see Kole Clean up, so his best position in the order may either be 6th behind Simmons, who hit .298/.363/.834 batting 5th last season, or lead-off, in lieu of a better signed or traded for option.

[totdprods]

59 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Per Career Splits, Calhoun puts up his best numbers batting 1st (.277/.334/.797), 2nd (.258/.326.756) 4th (.276/.353/.796) or 6th (.258/.340/.743).

If Upton stays on, and Mike Trout continues to hit 2nd, I don't think you'd see Kole Clean up, so his best position in the order may either be 6th behind Simmons, who hit .298/.363/.834 batting 5th last season, or lead-off, in lieu of a better signed or traded for option.

Kole has solid lead-off splits, but his OBP and BA had been gradually trending down, strong 2016 aside. 

While it only matters one time a game, his slash leading off a game over the last three years is .202/.259/.282 over 86 games, with only 4 lead-off walks and zero stolen bases in that stretch. That's not good.

We had a decent offense last year, and Yunel Escobar was a big part of it. He started just about every game with a single it seemed. This year, he didn't, and look how many times we had to come back from a deficit - I don't know off top of head, but all I heard Vic and Gubi talk about was how the Angels had x numbers of 'come from behind wins', even though some were rallying from a 0-1 deficit in the 2nd.

Yunel leading off a game in '17 (51 G):

.255/.314/.468 with 4 walks, 8 strikeouts 

Yunel leading off a game in '16 (130 G):

.319/.377/.429 with 9 walks, 10 strikeouts

Someone who really puts the ball in play works almost effectively as taking a walk, and Calhoun's average BA and high k's doesn't fit that mold. Simmons is closest we have in-house, in my opinion.

Kole and Yunel's inability to steal bases really sucks too.

[mulwin444]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Kole has solid lead-off splits, but his OBP and BA had been gradually trending down, strong 2016 aside. 

While it only matters one time a game, his slash leading off a game over the last three years is .202/.259/.282 over 86 games, with only 4 lead-off walks and zero stolen bases in that stretch. That's not good.

We had a decent offense last year, and Yunel Escobar was a big part of it. He started just about every game with a single it seemed. This year, he didn't, and look how many times we had to come back from a deficit - I don't know off top of head, but all I heard Vic and Gubi talk about was how the Angels had x numbers of 'come from behind wins', even though some were rallying from a 0-1 deficit in the 2nd.

Yunel leading off a game in '17 (51 G):

.255/.314/.468 with 4 walks, 8 strikeouts 

Yunel leading off a game in '16 (130 G):

.319/.377/.429 with 9 walks, 10 strikeouts

Someone who really puts the ball in play works almost effectively as taking a walk, and Calhoun's average BA and high k's doesn't fit that mold. Simmons is closest we have in-house, in my opinion.

My preference is to have both Simmons and Calhoun bat 5th/6th as I think this plays to their strengths offensively.  While, technically, Simmons has some solid contact ability he also doesn't generate a OBP that you'd want to see at the top of the line-up (lifetime .223/.266/.602 at lead-off aside).  i think either Calhoun or Simmons could do in a pinch for a little bit but are not long term solutions.  They need a lead-off hitter who can also play 2B or 3B as, unless something changed via trade, 1B is going to be covered by Cron/Valbuena and LF will likely be Upton or some power hitter acquired via signing, like JD Martinez, or trade.

[tdawg87]

Would rather have Kole hitting 5th or 6th. We really need a LH hitter with speed who can get on base at a decent clip. Don't know any of those who are available though.

I actually wouldn't mind getting Dee Gordon. Although he sucks at getting on base so he's probably not on Eppler's radar.

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Would rather have Kole hitting 5th or 6th. We really need a LH hitter with speed who can get on base at a decent clip. Don't know any of those who are available though.

I actually wouldn't mind getting Dee Gordon. Although he sucks at getting on base so he's probably not on Eppler's radar.

Dee Gordon, leading off a game in '17:

.346/.387/.451/.838 in 143 games, 14 steals 

Dee Gordon, leading off a game (career):

.296/.328/.386/.714 in 605 games, 75 steals

Dee Gordon slash, last three seasons:

.309/.340/.384/.724, averaging 164 hits and 49 steals.

He's a risk as he ages a bit, but to me he still seems like a perfect target for lead-off and 2B relative to his cost. His on base looks solid enough. 

[mulwin444]

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Dee Gordon, leading off a game in '17:

.346/.387/.451/.838 in 143 games, 14 steals 

Dee Gordon, leading off a game (career):

.296/.328/.386/.714 in 605 games, 75 steals

Dee Gordon slash, last three seasons:

.309/.340/.384/.724, averaging 164 hits and 49 steals.

He's a risk as he ages a bit, but to me he still seems like a perfect target for lead-off and 2B relative to his cost.

If I'm trading prospects for any 2B from the NL East, it's for Cesar Herandez

[totdprods]

30 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

If I'm trading prospects for any 2B from the NL East, it's for Cesar Herandez

If I'm trading prospects, I agree, Cesar Hernandez would be the target.

I think Dee's cost is going to be more influenced by money than prospects though, and we have more of that to play with, so he's got the edge in my eyes.

Marlins need to shed money, and we can help. I still like Martin Prado too - his .845 career OPS against LHP would balance well with Valbuena if we *needed* to employ a platoon at 3B due to spending on OF and pitching. Take on salary of Prado and Gordon and you help the Marlins quite a bit, so hopefully you don't send much back in terms of players.

[totdprods]

One red flag with Cesar though...

Cesar leading off games in '17 (124 G):

.216/.298/.333/.632 with 13 B, 25 K, 4 SB

Career (251 G):

.235/.327/.330/.657 with 29 BB, 55 K, 12 SB

I think that first PA of the game bears a lot of weight - see Yunel's '16 vs '17 above in relation to the Halos offense each year - so while this isn't the full picture I think it's something to be considered.

Ideally, you have a leadoff hitter who hits well both to start a game and at #1 in the lineup. That's what makes a great lead off hitter. Dee Gordon is closest of the often named candidates that is pretty consistent with BA/OBP both hitting first, leading off a game, and overall in past three years. 

 

[SoWhat]

Eppler tried to acquire Dee Gordon at the trade deadline, I wouldn't be surprised if he tries again this offseason. 

[eligrba]

9 hours ago, Stradling said:

And if he opts out and we resign him?

I am happy, depending on the terrms.

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, eligrba said:

I am happy, depending on the terrms.

We should pay all these guys league minimum, with 25 mill guaranteed if we make the world series.

[VariousCrap]

19 hours ago, mulwin444 said:

If I'm trading prospects for any 2B from the NL East, it's for Cesar Herandez

 

I asked Fletcher on Facebook about Hernandez and he said that is definitely the type of player the Angels would like for 2B.  He said Skaggs for Hernandez would probably be enough to get him.  Maybe throw in a low level minor league guy too (at the most).

If they did that though, I'd imagine they'd have to then get a Cobb or Chatwood for the rotation.  Totally worth it IMO.

[mulwin444]

4 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

 

I asked Fletcher on Facebook about Hernandez and he said that is definitely the type of player the Angels would like for 2B.  He said Skaggs for Hernandez would probably be enough to get him.  Maybe throw in a low level minor league guy too.

If they did that though, I'd imagine they'd have to then get a Cobb or Chatwood for the rotation.  Totally worth it IMO.

I'd be down with Skaggs for Hernandez but, if my choices are Cobb or Chatwood, I'd only go for Cobb.

Both have had injuries in recent years but Cobb is somewhat a solid 3-starter (3.50~ ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9 H/9, 2 BB/9, 6 K/9) while Chatwood is nothing special (4.50~ ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 10 H/9, 4 BB/9, 7 K/9).

[VariousCrap]

31 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

I'd be down with Skaggs for Hernandez but, if my choices are Cobb or Chatwood, I'd only go for Cobb.

Both have had injuries in recent years but Cobb is somewhat a solid 3-starter (3.50~ ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9 H/9, 2 BB/9, 6 K/9) while Chatwood is nothing special (4.50~ ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 10 H/9, 4 BB/9, 7 K/9).

 

I'd go with Cobb over Chatwood as well, but Chatwood's numbers away from Colorado are much better, which makes him a decent, young and affordable option in my opinion.

[vlad27]

For sure he opts out - I've thought that since the day we got him - hopefully he still ends up signing with us - he's a good fit 

[wopphil]

If be shocked if the Phils moved Hernandez for Skaggs alone, but that's a trade I'd make in an instant. Skaggs is highly replaceable.