Upton opt out question

[Erstad Grit]

(This is me officially moving on to the off-season after today)

Is there a deadline when Upton has to decide top opt out or stay?

The worst case scenario would be him leaving Angels in limbo and eventually opting out late into the off-season.

Is there a hard deadline? 

 

 

[AngelArcher]

Good question. It would definitely suck if that scenario played out. 

 

[arch stanton]

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say yes there is a deadline to opt out 

[Ohtaniland]

42 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

(This is me officially moving on to the off-season after today)

Is there a deadline when Upton has to decide top opt out or stay?

The worst case scenario would be him leaving Angels in limbo and eventually opting out late into the off-season.

Is there a hard deadline? 

 

 

He's already making more than his value. 

 

 

[Stradling]

No he's not.  

[tdawg87]

36 minutes ago, Calzone said:

He's already making more than his value. 

 

 

[Tank]

43 minutes ago, Calzone said:

He's already making more than his value. 

And what does that have to do with him having an opt out deadline?

[IEAngelsfan]

11 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Cornelius!

[arch stanton]

To keep this from getting any stupider, I'll go further out on the limb and say he has to opt out before the free agency filing deadline

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Calzone said:

He's already making more than his value. 

 

 

I'll play.  

What's his value?  

[tdawg87]

26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'll play.  

What's his value?  

Are you fucking stupid? Less than he's making now! 

[Billy_Ball]

Re-sign Ben Revere.

[Ohtaniland]

8 hours ago, Stradling said:

No he's not.  

 

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'll play.  

What's his value?  

$76.6M according to SI

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/03/07/opt-out-clause-contract-david-price-jason-heyward

[Ohtaniland]

8 hours ago, Tank said:

And what does that have to do with him having an opt out deadline?

The deadline is in November but if he opts out he's either an idiot or he just can't stand this place.

[Stradling]

The article is from March of last year.  He put up over 5 WAR season this season.  

[Ohtaniland]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The article is from March of last year.  He put up over 5 WAR season this season.  

Doesn't matter, they're talking about future decline. This year's performance has nothing to do with it because the money is already spent on him. They're talking about what his value is after his age 30 opt out date. He's got a solid contract now and would be stupid to opt out of it. He won't get more money. 

[Stradling]

Claude the way they figure decline is based on his performance the year the article was written.  So reading that, do you REALLY think Stanton would be overpaid by $130 million, or Andrus by $40 million?  

[Ohtaniland]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Claude the way they figure decline is based on his performance the year the article was written.  So reading that, do you REALLY think Stanton would be overpaid by $130 million, or Andrus by $40 million?  

I'm certainly not an expert on this but there's enough sports science out there that can project these things. Every athlete is different but my guess is that every GM is paying attention and understands what a guy like Justin Upton does today may not be what he will doing in 2021. I think it's a solid contract as is for both sides. If he wants more money or years then let him go. 

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

At first, I was leery that he would block the Joneses and Adells down the road.  But then I realized that he would slot perfectly into the DH role once Pujols hopefully retires in 1-2 seasons.

[Ohtaniland]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

At first, I was leery that he would block the Joneses and Adells down the road.  But then I realized that he would slot perfectly into the DH role once Pujols hopefully retires in 1-2 seasons.

He certainly fits a huge need. He's not getting Hamilton type money so that's a plus and he also proved my point about Maybin. He was crap.

[eligrba]

Based on the scenario that developed when Upton signed with Detroit, I am not so sure that his opting out is a guarantee.  It was probably a guarantee if he stayed in Detroit.  I also read somewhere that he had an interest in playing for the Angels before signing with the Tigers.

[Ohtaniland]

31 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Based on the scenario that developed when Upton signed with Detroit, I am not so sure that his opting out is a guarantee.  It was probably a guarantee if he stayed in Detroit.  I also read somewhere that he had an interest in playing for the Angels before signing with the Tigers.

He was only interested in the highest bidder. He wanted even more money than he got from Detroit. He was at the perfect age to cash in as much as possible but his asking price was more than the market dictated. He has the same agent as Torii Hunter. Detroit was his friend. 

[Stradling]

Newsflash, everyone wants the most money they can get.  The only player in recent memory that signed for less than the highest offer is Albert Pujols.  Even though Detroit was the highest bidder, it doesn't mean he didn't have other viable offers out there, it isn't like all of these bids are made public.  He got a good deal and this year he lived up to that deal, last year not so much.  

Everyone knows exactly what you are getting in to when you sign a free agent.  I really wonder what the percentage of $75 million plus contracts where the player actually outperforms his contract.  I would say for any player that signs a 5 year deal the chances of that player living up to the money in each of those years is almost zero percent.  Torii did, although he was just a 3 win player his third year with the team and hit into 22 and 24 double plays in two years here.  Vlad was amazing here, but he didn't even tally a 1 WAR his final year here and led the league in double plays with 27 one year.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Calzone said:

I'm certainly not an expert on this but there's enough sports science out there that can project these things. Every athlete is different but my guess is that every GM is paying attention and understands what a guy like Justin Upton does today may not be what he will doing in 2021. I think it's a solid contract as is for both sides. If he wants more money or years then let him go. 

 

 

you are confusing value and worth.  

You are correct in that his current deal is probably a good one relative to what he'll produce for the next four years.  In other words, it's fairly club friendly because his value matches what you are paying him. 

What does that tell you?  It tells me that he's going to be worth more than that on the open market.  

I agree that we should strongly consider letting him walk if he opts out and wants more yrs/$$ because then he becomes less valuable.  

But that shouldn't stop him from trying if he's motivated to chase more money.  Why would he settle if the market says he doesn't have to.  

 

He will opt out.  Or at least try to unless the halos work something out with him.  My guess is that they tack on an extra year so he stays.  

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Calzone said:

He certainly fits a huge need. He's not getting Hamilton type money so that's a plus and he also proved my point about Maybin. He was crap.

Maybin leads the AL in SB (tied with Altuve actually).