Twins Can't Fail

[fan_since79]

15 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Texas has struggled away from Arlington (and the Angels have played well at home) and Houston has been roughly .500 in the second half. Cleveland is due to lose at some point. Remember when the Dodgers were a historic team and are now losing everything?

We have actually played Houston well this year compared to years past, and the Angels have shown the ability all year to win in tough situations.

We'll see Verlander one more time, in Houston, and that's pretty much an automatic loss.

 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

We'll see Verlander one more time, in Houston, and that's pretty much an automatic loss.

 

Why?  

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

We'll see Verlander one more time, in Houston, and that's pretty much an automatic loss.

 

Before last night, Verlander was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Angels this year.

They might win, they might lose.

[tdawg87]

21 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Before last night, Verlander was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Angels this year.

They might win, they might lose.

[WeatherWonk]

This post should more correctly be titled, "Angels more likely to fail, than Twins."

It is more likely that a team last in the AL in OPS, with the starting staff the Angels have, will fail, rather than the Twins. 

Then, there is the schedule. The Twins play 12 of their last 18 games against teams that are 10 games or more under .500. These teams have nothing to play for.

The Angels play three. The White Sox in the second to last series of the year.

By the time the Twins play their three games against the Indians, the Tribe will have already clinched the AL Central. They MAY be resting many starters;  although the best record in baseball comes into play this year, more than ever. They may still have the pedal to the metal.

Only the White Sox have nothing to play for in the Angel's schedule. The Astros are hoping to get the best record in the AL/MLB, too. The Rangers and Mariners are in the WC hunt. The Angels play the Indians a week earlier than the Twins do, when the best record picture may still be clouded.

The motivation to play and manage is key this time of year. Managers of teams with nothing to play for,  will want to try this call-up or that call-up. Players dont necessarily let up;  they just aren't very good players, in many cases. The bad teams become even less competitive. But that can't be easily quantified. Still, common sense says, advantage Twins.

The Twins play seven games against what is arguably the worst team in baseball RIGHT NOW, the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are basically an AA-AAA club with Kinsler and Cabrera (and neither are hitting). Cabrera and Kinsler have been hitting below .240 for 2.5 months. I WOULD question THEIR motivation level;  after the house-cleaning that has occurred.

Ferget the standings;  the Tigers are horrible. I am going to predict that they will finish with the worst record in baseball. The Padres have become competitive, at least. The Phils can hit. The White Sox can hit. 

The Tigers cant do anything right, right now. They are dead last in the AL in team ERA;  both starters and relievers. And they have nothing to play for. Big advantage, Minnesota. 

The Twins have three more road games than the Angels.........but the Twins are 7 games above .500 on the road this year.

All the tangibles and intangibles favor the Twins.

[Lou]

1 hour ago, fan_since79 said:

They were great last night.

 

No, he was great last night. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

Any poker players out there? 

When you get all-in and one of you has a pair and the other has overcards -- typically something like AK vs. QQ or JJ -- it's referred to as a "coin flip." It's not actually a 50-50 deal, though. The pair is like 55-45 to win. But you're only doing it once, the ultimate small sample size. Both sides have enough chance to win that you wouldn't consider it a surprise whichever wins.

So, in effect, it's a coin flip.

That is what most baseball games are. The best team against the worst team is probably something like a 63-37 bet on a given day, and if you take any two teams in the middle, it's more like 53-47. Think about it. A .550 team is very good and a .450 team is very bad, but in a given 100 games, their results will be identical 90 percent of the time.

So,  yes, the Twins have an advantage over the Angels, but it's not because they're better or their schedule is weaker. It's because they are two games ahead. Their advantage is in what's already happened, not what is going to happen.

If they were tied today, it would be essentially a 50-50 proposition, regardless of their schedule or how they matched up statistically, because there aren't many games left.

[Tank]

i hope some of you don't work in tall buildings or near any bridges.

[Angel Oracle]

On top of the Twins hitting, they have gotten solid pitching seasons from Santana and Berrios, and further on top of that Gibson has a 1.40 ERA in his past 5 starts and Colon and Mejia both have around a 3.50 ERA in their past 10 starts each.   

Double on top of that.....the Twins playing 7 games against the dumpster fire Tiggers and 4 home games against a bad road team (Toronto) = VERY tall mountain for the Halos to climb.  

It's going to be either the Skanks or Red Sux facing the Twins in the WC game.   Red Sux aren't home free as AL East champs yet, despite the 4 game lead.   The Skanks play the great majority of their remaining games at home, where they are 40-27.     

[IEAngelsfan]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

i hope some of you don't work in tall buildings or near any bridges.

I do.

[fan_since79]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

i hope some of you don't work in tall buildings or near any bridges.

I've suffered through almost four decades with this team and survived numerous, spectacular collapses and disappointments.

They can't break my heart anymore. I just laugh and look towards spring training.

There's always that World Series win for consolation.

 

[Palomar]

Ditto on all of that. This WC race has pretty much been an unexpected bonus anyway with everything that has gone down pitching-wise.  Can anyone even name our rotation at any given week this season? Anything can still happen....at least there is a glimmer of hope (which of course could be gone in a hurry). And it could be Baltimore that barrels over MN and LAA anyway. Or 4 other teams.   It would be damn satisfying for that chance to play a game at Yankee stadium though.

[arch stanton]

7 hours ago, Tank said:

i hope some of you don't work in tall buildings or near any bridges.

Anyone who wants to suck the joy out of a pennant race should not only be allowed to jump but encouraged to

[Angel Oracle]

Twins pitching continues to dominate recently.  1-0 in the bottom of the 7th

[WeatherWonk]

7 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Any poker players out there? 

When you get all-in and one of you has a pair and the other has overcards -- typically something like AK vs. QQ or JJ -- it's referred to as a "coin flip." It's not actually a 50-50 deal, though. The pair is like 55-45 to win. But you're only doing it once, the ultimate small sample size. Both sides have enough chance to win that you wouldn't consider it a surprise whichever wins.

So, in effect, it's a coin flip.

That is what most baseball games are. The best team against the worst team is probably something like a 63-37 bet on a given day, and if you take any two teams in the middle, it's more like 53-47. Think about it. A .550 team is very good and a .450 team is very bad, but in a given 100 games, their results will be identical 90 percent of the time.

So,  yes, the Twins have an advantage over the Angels, but it's not because they're better or their schedule is weaker. It's because they are two games ahead. Their advantage is in what's already happened, not what is going to happen.

If they were tied today, it would be essentially a 50-50 proposition, regardless of their schedule or how they matched up statistically, because there aren't many games left.

Well, it would be a 50-50 proposition because both teams are near .500, after all these games. 

But the Cleveland Indians arent simply beating the odds. They are beating up on teams through superior play. By simple odds, there should be no way they win 21 in a row. Something else is going on. Superior play, over a short term, is going on. Their players, all playing good at the same time, is significantly increasing their odds.

Conversely, teams like Detroit and the CWS are playing around .400 (much different than .450 ball, BTW)  but are capable of playing at lengthy periods for .200 or .300 ball because they are so bad. Both of those teams have traded away players that kept them nearer to .400 over the course of the season. Those are not the same teams that were playing closer to .500, earlier in the season.  And they are trying out lots of September call-ups. That needs to be taken into account.

[WeatherWonk]

Twins walk off, 3-1, over the Padres.

[Angel Oracle]

What did I say about the Twins schedule?

3-1 win in 10 innings

Better hope Toronto at least splits with the Twins, and the Halos after tonight's win somehow win at least 3 of the next 4 games.

[WeatherWonk]

I watched the last few innings of the Twins game as the Angel game was pretty much decided.

The Twins announcers mentioned that the Twins would miss the Jays best starter, Stroman  in the upcoming series. He pitched today.

[Angel Oracle]

Is Detroit still in MLB?

[Tank]

2 hours ago, arch stanton said:

Anyone who wants to suck the joy out of a pennant race should not only be allowed to jump but encouraged to

you make a compelling argument, good sir.

[fan_since79]

Something that bothers me: Twins have seven of their final 17 games against the AAA Tigers, who somehow have become just plain awful.

 

[tdawg87]

On 9/12/2017 at 10:43 PM, playball89 said:

Twins are up over the Padres 16-0 in the 7th inning, have we ever slaughtered a team in such a way? I can't remember.

Oops 

[Lou]

13 hours ago, ANAHEIMBOB said:

I can still tend the rabbits, George? I didn't mean no harm, George.  

 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, fan_since79 said:

Something that bothers me: Twins have seven of their final 17 games against the AAA Tigers, who somehow have become just plain awful.

 

Where would this Tiggers team finish in the PCL?

Cabrera's total collapse this season makes Pujols' pale in comparison.

Talk about falling off a cliff?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

15 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

They were great last night.

 

Against the lowly Padres.

We were great tonight against the Astros.