Next Year's Rotation

[Angel Oracle]

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If you have $40 million to spend this off-season, how do you spend it?

It might be as much as $64 million.

Maybin = injury prone and inconsistent ($9 million AAV freed up?).

Nolasco = inconsistent ($10 million AAV freed up?).

Street = nearly done ($10 million AAV freed up?).

Espinohitsa = done ($5 million AAV freed up?).

Chavez = inconsistent ($5 million AAV freed up?).

Hackilton = finally, buh bye AAV salary of $25 million.

Escobar = 1 year re-sign at similar $7 million, if no other 3B options appear for 2018?

I'd focus first on a 2B, then a starting pitcher (#3 type - Otani?), then either Cowart or Escobar at 3B for 2018, and then 1 year deals for LF and 1B (hoping Hermosillo and Thaiss are ready by ST 2019).   Revisit 3B after 2018, if necessary.

[Angels#1Fan]

23 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If you have $40 million to spend this off-season, how do you spend it?

This might not be enough to make the Angels a real contender next year..if Moreno is willing to go over the cap then maybe, but I don't see that happening because he seems to have limited the payroll to that so..

As far as how I would spend $40 it would have to be spread out over the positions that have been discussed and roll the dice on the rotation we have, which I don't think would be a recipe for success unless the Angels start getting some breaks or unexpected help from the minors like Cowart. If he can hit ML pitching it would be huge to the organization but....

The injuries to the pitching staff and the devastation of the minors have put the Angels in a really bad spot.

 

[Brent Maguire]

This team needs a starter outside of the org for 2018, no questions asked. On paper, Richards/Heaney/Skaggs/Shoemaker/Tropeano has the makings of a very solid rotation but the risk/reward due to the injuries is too big to overlook. The FA market isn't exactly great so I do wonder if they'll try to trade for a controllable 3/4 starter in the mold of a Jake Odorizzi type pitcher. 

Obviously, starting pitching is just one of the many holes this team needs to fill for 2018 so they'll have to choose wisely on what they do. In a perfect world, Heaney and Skaggs come back to pitch meaningful innings this year and offer some optimism for 2018. That would leave Richards as a wild card who you can maybe slot in as the #6 starter and just prepare like he won't give you meaningful innings. If he does, then it's an added bonus. 

[Angel Oracle]

Remember that we can't count on GRich, Skaggs, Heaney, or Tropeano to pitch 180-190 innings until at least 2019.

Best case scenario for each in 2018 is around 150-160 innings, due to lack of innings the past 2-3 years.  

[Angels#1Fan]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

Remember that we can't count on GRich, Skaggs, Heanry, or Tropeano to pitch 180-190 innings until at least 2019.

Best case scenario for each in 2018 is around 150-160 innings, due to lack of innings the past 2-3 years.  

This is something I think most seem to miss. Even if those guys rebound and can pitch effectively the innings aren't going to be there and the Angels will still need someone else to take up the slack left by those guys. What that means is that the rotation even if healthy will need help!

I hope I'm wrong, but I just think Richards is done..it's sad really.

[DMVol]

36 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If you have $40 million to spend this off-season, how do you spend it?

Wisely.....I'm still on the Eppler train but we need to avoid more Valbuenas and Espinosas.....

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Remember that we can't count on GRich, Skaggs, Heaney, or Tropeano to pitch 180-190 innings until at least 2019.

Best case scenario for each in 2018 is around 150-160 innings, due to lack of innings the past 2-3 years.  

And this is why a reliable 180 IP, 4.00 ERA investment would be worth it.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

40 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Luis Valbuena sure seemed like a mid-tier type guy who was a safe bet to produce a la Neil Walker and here we are. 
Walker makes me pretty nervous. He'll command some dough and has missed quite a bit of time with back injuries the last two seasons. For someone entering their mid-thirties, that's quite a red flag, especially at a position as demanding as 2B. 

I think I'd rather send some Rondons to SF for 2B Panek.

[Angelsfan1984]

I'm paying Otani unless we can find a controllable pitcher via trade. I'd also give Darvish a contract if we miss on Otani. Ideally we give someone like CarGo a 3 year deal while we wait for the youngsters to develop. I think Moustakas is a future Angel unless we can get escobar on the cheap again. As for 2nd base I feel like were going to see a lot of Nick Franklin/Pennington next year.

 

Darvish 18-20 mill per

Otani - no idea what to offer someone like that

Moustakas - 15 mill per

CarGo - 15-20 mill per

GRich - not sure how he accepts anything other than a 1 year prove it deal. His elbow is made of Styrofoam.

[ettin]

21 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I'm paying Otani unless we can find a controllable pitcher via trade. I'd also give Darvish a contract if we miss on Otani. Ideally we give someone like CarGo a 3 year deal while we wait for the youngsters to develop. I think Moustakas is a future Angel unless we can get escobar on the cheap again. As for 2nd base I feel like were going to see a lot of Nick Franklin/Pennington next year.

 

Darvish 18-20 mill per

Otani - no idea what to offer someone like that

Moustakas - 15 mill per

CarGo - 15-20 mill per

GRich - not sure how he accepts anything other than a 1 year prove it deal. His elbow is made of Styrofoam.

Because Otani is under age 25 I believe he can only sign for the League Minimum plus the posting fee which is a maximum of $20M. The Angels clearly have a shot at him if he does post and the lure is the opportunity to play alongside Mike Trout. We could also satisfy his desire to play both ways as a starter and a LF/1B which would actually be to our benefit (although it increases his chances of injury I suppose). He is an ace-type pitcher and a big bat all wrapped up in one.

[Troll Daddy]

I hope to resign Chavez for many reasons 

[Blarg]

18 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Good stuff AJ. I think the only exception I'm seeing here is that Barria, Long and Canning all belong in tier 2 instead of tier 3. There's also a reasonable chance Canning can develop into tier one, or that Barria's Maddux impression plays at the top level.

So I'm more bullish on our pitchers. 

But your assessment and conclusion are accurate. We don't make any SP acquisitions for the next couple years at minimum and focus on hitters. We need to see what becomes of Ramirez, Bridwell, Meyer, Skaggs....

We've built up or acquired all this pitching and now the Angels need to see what they have and can where it can take them.

Scotty your enthusiasm is great but Barria, Long and Canning haven't seen one major league inning so there is no way you can project tier two performance. That is cart before the horse planning. 

[Dick B Back]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

If you have $40 million to spend this off-season, how do you spend it?

Please use for Stanton's paycheck.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

When I look at our holes My prioritized list is:

2nd base

LF

3rd base

1st base

Starting pitcher

Bench

I think we're going to trade for Josh Harrison or some other solid 2bman.  But this lineup needs two things.  One, they need guys like Valbuena and Cron to hit as they've done in the past.  Not even some sort of magical step forward.  Just like they used to.  I would include Pujols in that mix, but I think he's done and going to keep getting worse.  Second, they need some serious thumb.  Moustakas would be a nice add, but I really get the feeling Valbuena is going to take over at 3b next year.  If they plan on platooning cron and valbuena at 1b again next year then fine, but that's not working out.  Those two guys need everyday at bats or you need to move one of them and sell low.  I don't see that happening. 

The other spot to add thump is LF.  We could trade from some OF depth in our minors which still has a lot of upside to be realized and is frankly premature in my opinion or we could sign someone like Upton to a long term deal.  Then trade Kole and move Upton to RF when some of our OF prospects become ready.  We could also do a stop gap signing like a cargo type play on a 1yr deal.  

No amount of shuffling or signing is going to help if we can't get a few rotation guys healthy.  But it's getting close to time to pull the plug on this year and trade expiring contracts.  We're 4 games back of the 2nd WC, 4 games below .500 and there are 5 other teams for us to pass to get there with 3 more teams within a game just below us.  We could have the 3rd worst record in the AL by the end of the week.  Even if we are 'only' 5 or 5.5 games back of the wild card, you just have to sell at that point.  

[Dtwncbad]

Mark Prior is only 36 yrs old

[Stradling]

If I had $40 million to spend, I would try to acquire a second baseman.  Maybe that is a Neil Walker type, for $10-12 million.  I would kick the tires on Martinez, and if he can be had for $20 million a year, I would consider it.  If not, I would look at Mous.  I actually think that Moustakas coming to the Angels is inevitable.  I am not saying that is exactly what I want, but I would at least understand it.  I have heard to many people that know the guy basically say he is coming here, for what that is worth.  If we had the money to fill those holes and go after a Darvish type then go for it.  I haven't looked to see who is available this off-season to shore up first base. 

[Cdaniel]

Yu is going to cost more than 20 mil per year.

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 7/19/2017 at 6:20 AM, Dtwncbad said:

 

Any pitcher can go down, sure.

Ours definetely blow, thats for sure.

[totdprods]

This topic has still been gnawing at me, especially as I keep reading about all the rumors involving starting pitching, it's value, it's cost. 
I wanted to parallel the original post's 'tier system' with another way of looking at the rotation. I'm not saying this tier is a direct alternative to the original tier, but I look at them in more of a Venn Diagram type way - a contrasting tier.

Tier One: The guys that seem to be in good shape: Heaney, Ramirez, Meyer, Bridwell, and Long. Meyer's history suggests caution. Ramirez may have some endurance concerns.
Tier Two: Skaggs seems likely to join that group, but hard to really count on him after all the delays returning from TJ. Tropeano likely fits here too. Should be good, but very little progress to really say definitively.
Tier Three: Richards, Shoemaker, and Smith are total question marks as of right now, and Richards could even be a non-tender candidate. 
Tier Four: Barria and Canning likely still need a year of seasoning in the minors. Canning may have health concerns. 

Yeah, we have two months for the health of some guys to improve, but November/December are approaching quickly and that's when most activity happens.
As of this moment, our 2018 safest bet rotation is:
Skaggs, Heaney, Ramirez, Meyer, Bridwell, with Long, and eventually Tropeano, as the first guy up from AAA.

If that doesn't give you cause for concern, and make you want to acquire a SP for a safety net, whew, I don't know what will.
 

[Dtwncbad]

"Skaggs, Heaney, Ramirez, Meyer, Bridwell, with Long, and eventually Tropeano"

If that is the rotation I am looking at in April I will have very close to zero optimism for a postseason before one game is even played.

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

This topic has still been gnawing at me, especially as I keep reading about all the rumors involving starting pitching, it's value, it's cost. 
I wanted to parallel the original post's 'tier system' with another way of looking at the rotation. I'm not saying this tier is a direct alternative to the original tier, but I look at them in more of a Venn Diagram type way - a contrasting tier.

Tier One: The guys that seem to be in good shape: Heaney, Ramirez, Meyer, Bridwell, and Long. Meyer's history suggests caution. Ramirez may have some endurance concerns.
Tier Two: Skaggs seems likely to join that group, but hard to really count on him after all the delays returning from TJ. Tropeano likely fits here too. Should be good, but very little progress to really say definitively.
Tier Three: Richards, Shoemaker, and Smith are total question marks as of right now, and Richards could even be a non-tender candidate. 
Tier Four: Barria and Canning likely still need a year of seasoning in the minors. Canning may have health concerns. 

Yeah, we have two months for the health of some guys to improve, but November/December are approaching quickly and that's when most activity happens.
As of this moment, our 2018 safest bet rotation is:
Skaggs, Heaney, Ramirez, Meyer, Bridwell, with Long, and eventually Tropeano, as the first guy up from AAA.

If that doesn't give you cause for concern, and make you want to acquire a SP for a safety net, whew, I don't know what will.
 

On this, we agree that we need a SP. There's no question about that. 

However I think we disagree on the type of SP we need to truly make an impact. 

To me, it's Darvish or bust, and I'm not entirely sure I want the Angels to go after Darvish considering how much he is going to cost and his injury concerns. But he's the only real frontline starter available next year. A frontline starter, or "ace" if you will, pushes every pitcher we currently have back one spot. It completely changes the face of the rotation. 

[totdprods]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

On this, we agree that we need a SP. There's no question about that. 

However I think we disagree on the type of SP we need to truly make an impact. 

To me, it's Darvish or bust, and I'm not entirely sure I want the Angels to go after Darvish considering how much he is going to cost and his injury concerns. But he's the only real frontline starter available next year. A frontline starter, or "ace" if you will, pushes every pitcher we currently have back one spot. It completely changes the face of the rotation. 

Yeah, just sort of generalizing in terms of us needing SP - some seem to think we don't need to do anything because of the quantity. I just see way too many red flags and murky statuses to trust more than half of those guys. 

Definitely interested in Darvish, but share your concern that his salary could limit us from improving elsewhere. I just think someone mid-tier would still improve the rotation and still allow us to spend a little more freely on other needs, even if it just adds another relatively redundant arm to the mix. Virtually anyone who could be healthy and durable right now would be an improvement.

[AngelsFaninGA]

On 7/19/2017 at 4:02 PM, Stradling said:

If I had $40 million to spend, I would try to acquire a second baseman.  Maybe that is a Neil Walker type, for $10-12 million.  I would kick the tires on Martinez, and if he can be had for $20 million a year, I would consider it.  If not, I would look at Mous.  I actually think that Moustakas coming to the Angels is inevitable.  I am not saying that is exactly what I want, but I would at least understand it.  I have heard to many people that know the guy basically say he is coming here, for what that is worth.  If we had the money to fill those holes and go after a Darvish type then go for it.  I haven't looked to see who is available this off-season to shore up first base. 

I really hope you're wrong. Mous along with Arrieta are the two guys I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole because they're the two most obvious candidates to sign a massive deal and then badly underperform. Like virtually every red flag is there with Mous: 29 entering next year so we'll be stuck with him for all of his declining years, career year in a contract year with mediocre numbers otherwise, you name it. Would be very disappointing if after all these years of waiting for the bad contracts to clear so we can finally have some financial flexibility we went and wasted it on the same type of bad contract.

[totdprods]

26 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

I really hope you're wrong. Mous along with Arrieta are the two guys I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole because they're the two most obvious candidates to sign a massive deal and then badly underperform. Like virtually every red flag is there with Mous: 29 entering next year so we'll be stuck with him for all of his declining years, career year in a contract year with mediocre numbers otherwise, you name it. Would be very disappointing if after all these years of waiting for the bad contracts to clear so we can finally have some financial flexibility we went and wasted it on the same type of bad contract.

I felt that way about Moose too but dug a little deeper. He took a huge leap forward a couple seasons ago and I think he's probably a legit, rounded player for the next few seasons.

BUT the Angels shouldn't see him as a game-changer. He needs to be regarded as more of a quality, everyday regular instead of a star, and his contract needs to reflect that, and significant work will still need to be done elsewhere for his contributions to be worth it.

If Moose really is deadset on coming home and his contract is reasonable (3-5 years, in the $13m-18m range annually) and they still went after impact pitching and hitting, I'd definitely welcome him into the fold. If he starts getting contract offers north of like 5/$65m, I'm not interested. 4/$60m would be around my limit.

[Cdaniel]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I felt that way about Moose too but dug a little deeper. He took a huge leap forward a couple seasons ago and I think he's probably a legit, rounded player for the next few seasons.

BUT the Angels shouldn't see him as a game-changer. He needs to be regarded as more of a quality, everyday regular instead of a star, and his contract needs to reflect that, and significant work will still need to be done elsewhere for his contributions to be worth it.

If Moose really is deadset on coming home and his contract is reasonable (3-5 years, in the $13m-18m range annually) and they still went after impact pitching and hitting, I'd definitely welcome him into the fold. If he starts getting contract offers north of like 5/$65m, I'm not interested. 4/$60m would be around my limit.

Why would you be willing to go 4/$60 but not go 5/$65?  5/$65 seems like a better deal knocking down the avg annual salary.